Falsification and corroboration of conceptual hydrological models using geophysical data

Geophysical data may provide crucial information about hydrological properties, states, and processes that are difficult to obtain by other means. Large data sets can be acquired over widely different scales in a minimally invasive manner and at comparatively low costs, but their effective use in hydrology makes it necessary to understand the fidelity of geophysical models, the assumptions made in their construction, and the links between geophysical and hydrological properties. Geophysics has been applied for groundwater prospecting for almost a century, but it is only in the last 20 years that it is regularly used together with classical hydrological data to build predictive hydrological models. A largely unexplored venue for future work is to use geophysical data to falsify or rank competing conceptual hydrological models. A promising cornerstone for such a model selection strategy is the Bayes factor, but it can only be calculated reliably when considering the main sources of uncertainty throughout the hydrogeophysical parameter estimation process. Most classical geophysical imaging tools tend to favor models with smoothly varying property fields that are at odds with most conceptual hydrological models of interest. It is thus necessary to account for this bias or use alternative approaches in which proposed conceptual models are honored at all steps in the model building process.

A definition and classification of status epilepticus - Report of the ILAE Task Force on Classification of Status Epilepticus.

The Commission on Classification and Terminology and the Commission on Epidemiology of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) have charged a Task Force to revise concepts, definition, and classification of status epilepticus (SE). The proposed new definition of SE is as follows: Status epilepticus is a condition resulting either from the failure of the mechanisms responsible for seizure termination or from the initiation of mechanisms, which lead to abnormally, prolonged seizures (after time point t1 ). It is a condition, which can have long-term consequences (after time point t2 ), including neuronal death, neuronal injury, and alteration of neuronal networks, depending on the type and duration of seizures. This definition is conceptual, with two operational dimensions: the first is the length of the seizure and the time point (t1 ) beyond which the seizure should be regarded as "continuous seizure activity." The second time point (t2 ) is the time of ongoing seizure activity after which there is a risk of long-term consequences. In the case of convulsive (tonic-clonic) SE, both time points (t1 at 5 min and t2 at 30 min) are based on animal experiments and clinical research. This evidence is incomplete, and there is furthermore considerable variation, so these time points should be considered as the best estimates currently available. Data are not yet available for other forms of SE, but as knowledge and understanding increase, time points can be defined for specific forms of SE based on scientific evidence and incorporated into the definition, without changing the underlying concepts. A new diagnostic classification system of SE is proposed, which will provide a framework for clinical diagnosis, investigation, and therapeutic approaches for each patient. There are four axes: (1) semiology; (2) etiology; (3) electroencephalography (EEG) correlates; and (4) age. Axis 1 (semiology) lists different forms of SE divided into those with prominent motor systems, those without prominent motor systems, and currently indeterminate conditions (such as acute confusional states with epileptiform EEG patterns). Axis 2 (etiology) is divided into subcategories of known and unknown causes. Axis 3 (EEG correlates) adopts the latest recommendations by consensus panels to use the following descriptors for the EEG: name of pattern, morphology, location, time-related features, modulation, and effect of intervention. Finally, axis 4 divides age groups into neonatal, infancy, childhood, adolescent and adulthood, and elderly.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Characterizing the vulnerability of frequent emergency department users by applying a conceptual framework: a controlled, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Frequent emergency department (ED) users meet several of the criteria of vulnerability, but this needs to be further examined taking into consideration all vulnerability's different dimensions. This study aimed to characterize frequent ED users and to define risk factors of frequent ED use within a universal health care coverage system, applying a conceptual framework of vulnerability. METHODS: A controlled, cross-sectional study comparing frequent ED users to a control group of non-frequent users was conducted at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Frequent users were defined as patients with five or more visits to the ED in the previous 12 months. The two groups were compared using validated scales for each one of the five dimensions of an innovative conceptual framework: socio-demographic characteristics; somatic, mental, and risk-behavior indicators; and use of health care services. Independent t-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Pearson's Chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison. To examine the -related to vulnerability- risk factors for being a frequent ED user, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: We compared 226 frequent users and 173 controls. Frequent users had more vulnerabilities in all five dimensions of the conceptual framework. They were younger, and more often immigrants from low/middle-income countries or unemployed, had more somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, were more often tobacco users, and had more primary care physician (PCP) visits. The most significant frequent ED use risk factors were a history of more than three hospital admissions in the previous 12 months (adj OR:23.2, 95%CI = 9.1-59.2), the absence of a PCP (adj OR:8.4, 95%CI = 2.1-32.7), living less than 5 km from an ED (adj OR:4.4, 95%CI = 2.1-9.0), and household income lower than USD 2,800/month (adj OR:4.3, 95%CI = 2.0-9.2). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent ED users within a universal health coverage system form a highly vulnerable population, when taking into account all five dimensions of a conceptual framework of vulnerability. The predictive factors identified could be useful in the early detection of future frequent users, in order to address their specific needs and decrease vulnerability, a key priority for health care policy makers. Application of the conceptual framework in future research is warranted.

Efficacy of an eradication schema in case of Pseudomonas aeruginosa primo-infection in children with cystic fibrosis

Introduction: Patients with Cystic fibrosis (CF) are more susceptible to pathogens like P. aeruginosa (PA). PA primo-infection requires particular attention as failure in eradication is associated with accelerated lung deterioration. The main aim of this study is to assess the rate of PA eradication according to our particular protocol with inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin, as there is no consensus in the literature on what eradication protocol is optimal. Methods: Retrospective single centre study with data analysis from June 1st 2007 to June 1st 2011 of patients with PA primo-infection exclusively treated by 3 x 28 days of inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin for the first and last 21 days. Success in eradication is defined by ≥ 3 negative bacteriologies for 6 months after the beginning of the protocol. If ≥ 1 bacteriology is positive, we consider the eradication as a failure. Results: Out of 41 patients, 18 followed the eradication protocol and were included in our analysis (7 girls (38.9%) and 11 boys (61.1%)). Boys had 12 primo-infections and girls had 8. Among these 20 primo-infections, 16 (80%) had an overall success in eradication and 4 (20%) a failure. There was no significant statistical differences in age between these groups (t-test = 0.07, p = 0.94), nor for FEV1% (t-test = 0.96, p = 0.41) or BMI (t-test = 1.35, p = 0.27). Rate of success was 100% for girls and 66.6% for boys. Conclusion: Our protocol succeeded in an overall eradication rate of 80%, without statistical significant impact on FEV1 % and BMI values. However, there was a sex difference with eradication rates in girls (100%) and boys (66.6%). A sex difference has not yet been reported in the literature. This should be evaluated in further studies.

Operational sex ratio, sexual conflict and the intensity of sexual selection.

Modern sexual selection theory indicates that reproductive costs rather than the operational sex ratio predict the intensity of sexual selection. We investigated sexual selection in the polygynandrous common lizard Lacerta vivipara. This species shows male aggression, causing high mating costs for females when adult sex ratios (ASR) are male-biased. We manipulated ASR in 12 experimental populations and quantified the intensity of sexual selection based on the relationship between reproductive success and body size. In sharp contrast to classical sexual selection theory predictions, positive directional sexual selection on male size was stronger and positive directional selection on female size weaker in female-biased populations than in male-biased populations. Thus, consistent with modern theory, directional sexual selection on male size was weaker in populations with higher female mating costs. This suggests that the costs of breeding, but not the operational sex ratio, correctly predicted the strength of sexual selection.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Developing a conceptual framework to analyse professionalisation in sport federations

Existing research on sport organisations is imprecise in the use of the concept 'professionalisation'. Furthermore, we do not know if analytical concepts of professionalisation correspond with the understanding in practice. This study explores the perceptions of practitioners and proposes a framework to analyse professionalisation in national sport federations. Expert interviews were conducted with six key people from Swiss national sport federations and then analysed these for characteristics of professionalisation using a hermeneutic approach. The characteristics were divided into three areas: (1) changed management philosophy, (2) functional differentiation and specialisation, and (3) application of management tools. However, professionalisation is primarily perceived to be a matter of 'professional' attitude that transforms into federation culture. The practitioners disclose an ambivalent view of professionalisation, e.g. business-like culture vs. voluntarism, for-profit vs. non-profit orientation, autonomy vs. control. A framework is developed that synthesises analytical concepts and practitioners' perceptions to support future comprehensive research into causes, forms and consequences of professionalisation in national sport federations.