BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

How Much Does It Cost? Optimization of Costs in Sequence Analysis of Social Science Data

One major methodological problem in analysis of sequence data is the determination of costs from which distances between sequences are derived. Although this problem is currently not optimally dealt with in the social sciences, it has some similarity with problems that have been solved in bioinformatics for three decades. In this article, the authors propose an optimization of substitution and deletion/insertion costs based on computational methods. The authors provide an empirical way of determining costs for cases, frequent in the social sciences, in which theory does not clearly promote one cost scheme over another. Using three distinct data sets, the authors tested the distances and cluster solutions produced by the new cost scheme in comparison with solutions based on cost schemes associated with other research strategies. The proposed method performs well compared with other cost-setting strategies, while it alleviates the justification problem of cost schemes.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitor treatment for myasthenia gravis.

BACKGROUND: In myasthenia gravis, antibody-mediated blockade of acetylcholine receptors at the neuromuscular junction abolishes the naturally occurring 'safety factor' of synaptic transmission. Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors provide temporary symptomatic treatment of muscle weakness, but there is controversy about their long-term efficacy, dosage and side effects. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in all forms of myasthenia gravis. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched The Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Specialized Register (5 October 2009), The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2009), MEDLINE (January 1966 to September 2009), EMBASE (January 1980 to September 2009) for randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised controlled trials regarding usage of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in myasthenia gravis. Two authors scanned the articles for any study eligible for inclusion. We also contacted the authors and known experts in the field to identify additional published or unpublished data. SELECTION CRITERIA: Types of studies: all randomised or quasi-randomised trials.Types of participants: all myasthenia gravis patients diagnosed by an internationally accepted definition.Types of interventions: treatment with any form of acetylcholinesterase inhibitor.Types of outcome measuresPrimary outcome measureImprovement in the presenting symptoms within 1 to 14 days of the start of treatment.Secondary outcome measures(1) Improvement in the presenting symptoms more than 14 days after the start of treatment.(2) Change in impairment measured by a recognised and preferably validated scale, such as the quantitative myasthenia gravis score within 1 to 14 days and more than 14 days after the start of treatment.(3) Myasthenia Gravis Association of America post-intervention status more than 14 days after start of treatment.(4) Adverse events: muscarinic side effects. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One author (MMM) extracted the data, which were checked by a second author. We contacted study authors for extra information and collected data on adverse effects from the trials. MAIN RESULTS: We did not find any large randomised or quasi-randomised trials of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in generalised myasthenia gravis. One cross-over randomised trial using intranasal neostigmine in a total of 10 subjects was only available as an abstract. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Except for one small and inconclusive trial of intranasal neostigmine, no randomised controlled trial has been conducted on the use of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in myasthenia gravis. Response to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in observational studies is so clear that a randomised controlled trial depriving participants in the placebo arm of treatment would be difficult to justify.

Structural assessment of single amino acid mutations: application to TP53 function.

Single amino acid substitution is the type of protein alteration most related to human diseases. Current studies seek primarily to distinguish neutral mutations from harmful ones. Very few methods offer an explanation of the final prediction result in terms of the probable structural or functional effect on the protein. In this study, we describe the use of three novel parameters to identify experimentally-verified critical residues of the TP53 protein (p53). The first two parameters make use of a surface clustering method to calculate the protein surface area of highly conserved regions or regions with high nonlocal atomic interaction energy (ANOLEA) score. These parameters help identify important functional regions on the surface of a protein. The last parameter involves the use of a new method for pseudobinding free-energy estimation to specifically probe the importance of residue side-chains to the stability of protein fold. A decision tree was designed to optimally combine these three parameters. The result was compared to the functional data stored in the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) TP53 mutation database. The final prediction achieved a prediction accuracy of 70% and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.45. It also showed a high specificity of 91.8%. Mutations in the 85 correctly identified important residues represented 81.7% of the total mutations recorded in the database. In addition, the method was able to correctly assign a probable functional or structural role to the residues. Such information could be critical for the interpretation and prediction of the effect of missense mutations, as it not only provided the fundamental explanation of the observed effect, but also helped design the most appropriate laboratory experiment to verify the prediction results.

EuroPhenome: a repository for high-throughput mouse phenotyping data.

The broad aim of biomedical science in the postgenomic era is to link genomic and phenotype information to allow deeper understanding of the processes leading from genomic changes to altered phenotype and disease. The EuroPhenome project (http://www.EuroPhenome.org) is a comprehensive resource for raw and annotated high-throughput phenotyping data arising from projects such as EUMODIC. EUMODIC is gathering data from the EMPReSSslim pipeline (http://www.empress.har.mrc.ac.uk/) which is performed on inbred mouse strains and knock-out lines arising from the EUCOMM project. The EuroPhenome interface allows the user to access the data via the phenotype or genotype. It also allows the user to access the data in a variety of ways, including graphical display, statistical analysis and access to the raw data via web services. The raw phenotyping data captured in EuroPhenome is annotated by an annotation pipeline which automatically identifies statistically different mutants from the appropriate baseline and assigns ontology terms for that specific test. Mutant phenotypes can be quickly identified using two EuroPhenome tools: PhenoMap, a graphical representation of statistically relevant phenotypes, and mining for a mutant using ontology terms. To assist with data definition and cross-database comparisons, phenotype data is annotated using combinations of terms from biological ontologies.

Effects of a school-based physical activity program on physical and psychosocial quality of life in elementary school children: a cluster-randomized trial.

The present study tested the effect of a school-based physical activity (PA) program on quality of life (QoL) in 540 elementary school children. First and fifth graders were randomly assigned to a PA program or a no-PA control condition during one academic year. QoL was assessed by the Child Health Questionnaire at baseline and postintervention. Based on mixed linear model analyses, physical QoL in first graders and physical and psychosocial QoL in fifth graders were not affected by the intervention. In first graders, the PA intervention had a positive impact on psychosocial QoL (effect size [d], 0.32; p < .05). Subpopulation analyses revealed that this effect was caused by an effect in urban (effect size [d], 0.38; p < .05) and overweight first graders (effect size [d], 0.45; p < .05). In conclusion, a school-based PA intervention had little effect on QoL in elementary school children.

A tutorial review of electrical neuroimaging from group-average to single-trial event-related potentials.

This tutorial review details some of the recent advances in signal analyses applied to event-related potential (ERP) data. These "electrical neuroimaging" analyses provide reference-independent measurements of response strength and response topography that circumvent statistical and interpretational caveats of canonical ERP analysis methods while also taking advantage of the greater information provided by high-density electrode montages. Electrical neuroimaging can be applied across scales ranging from group-averaged ERPs to single-subject and single-trial datasets. We illustrate these methods with a tutorial dataset and place particular emphasis on their suitability for studies of clinical and/or developmental populations.

Molecular features of hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma unravels potential novel therapeutic targets.

The pathogenesis of hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma (HSTL), a rare entity mostly derived from γδ T cells and usually with a fatal outcome, remains largely unknown. In this study, HSTL samples (7γδ and 2αβ) and the DERL2 HSTL cell line were subjected to combined gene-expression profiling and array-based comparative genomic hybridization. Compared with other T-cell lymphomas, HSTL had a distinct molecular signature irrespective of TCR cell lineage. Compared with peripheral T-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified and normal γδ T cells, HSTL overexpressed genes encoding NK-cell-associated molecules, oncogenes (FOS and VAV3), the sphingosine-1-phosphatase receptor 5 involved in cell trafficking, and the tyrosine kinase SYK, whereas the tumor-suppressor gene AIM1 (absent in melanoma 1) was among the most down-expressed. We found highly methylated CpG islands of AIM1 in DERL2 cells, and decitabine treatment induced a significant increase in AIM1 transcripts. Syk was present in HSTL cells and DERL2 cells contained phosphorylated Syk and were sensitive to a Syk inhibitor in vitro. Genomic profiles confirmed recurrent isochromosome 7q (n = 6/9) without alterations at the SYK and AIM1 loci. Our results identify a distinct molecular signature for HSTL and highlight oncogenic pathways that offer rationale for exploring new therapeutic options such as Syk inhibitors and demethylating agents.

Quelle perception ont les médecins de famille en Suisse de leur rôle dans la prévention et la promotion de la santé? : comprendre les barrières à l'implémentation

Introduction: The importance of health promotion and prevention and the potential of general practitioners (GPs) to conduct individual prevention procedures have been demonstrated in several studies. Clinical recommendations for screening and prevention activities, an important condition for success, are published regularly, but their implementation into daily practice does not necessarily follow. Information is lacking about the actual conditions of how prevention is carried out on a daily basis by Swiss GPs, about their perceptions and needs, their attitudes and the present barriers they face. Such information is essential for the development of new tools and programs targeting better implementation of clinical recommendations for prevention in primary care in Switzerland. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to analyze how Swiss GPs perceive their role in prevention by obtaining information regarding the following issues: What do disease prevention and health promotion mean to them? What are the current incentives and barriers they face? What are their ideas and suggestions to deal with these barriers? What are their needs and expectations regarding prevention guidelines and tools? Methods: We conducted a qualitative research project using focus groups to examine the questions mentioned above. A total of 13 focus groups took place including GPs from eight cantons: five groups in German- speaking Switzerland and eight in French- speaking Switzerland. Each group was composed of 4-11 GPs, making in total 102 participants, who were paid expenses to cover their participation. The sessions were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis: Content analysis of the transcriptions began by classifying the data according to a typology, the first level of which was developed in line with the structure of the interview guide. This typology was extended by successively regrouping similar statements. Synopsis and interpretation was then performed on each category thus obtained. This research report is based on the results from the French-speaking cantons. Results: Physicians perceive a change in their role as a consequence of changes in society and the health system. They emphasize the importance of a personalized and long lasting relationship between the family doctor and his/her patient; a privileged position allowing them to perform individualized prevention activities, considered to be more effective, as they are appropriate to the specific situation and needs of the patient. They point out their need for training and for better information concerning prevention and health promotion interventions, and stress difficulties arising from the lack of a clear political signal conferring them with a mandate for prevention. -- INTRODUCTION L'importance de la prévention et de la promotion de la santé et le potentiel des médecins de famillea à mettre en oeuvre des mesures individuelles de prévention, de dépistage et de conseils, a été démontrée dans plusieurs études. Régulièrement durant les dernières années, de nombreuses associations médicales ont publié des recommandations cliniques concernant les activités de dépistage et de prévention qui sont une condition essentielle pour le succès, mais ne sont pas forcément appliquées de manière systématique dans la pratique médicale quotidienne. Des contraintes spécifiques contribuent à l'écart entre le désir des médecins de pratiquer une médecine préventive et la réalité d'un cabinet médical. Nous n'avons que peu de données sur les conditions actuelles dans lesquelles la prévention et la promotion de la santé sont réalisées par les médecins de famille suisses dans leur travail quotidien. Des informations précises et représentatives sur leurs perceptions et leurs besoins, leurs attitudes et les contraintes auxquelles ils sont confrontés manquent. Or ces données sont essentielles dans le développement de nouveaux outils et programmes visant une meilleure implémentation des recommandations cliniques dans le domaine de la prévention et la promotion de la santé dans la médecine de famille en Suisse. OBJECTIFS Le développement de concepts pour une prévention systématique ainsi que d'outils adéquats, tout comme l'amélioration des conditions qui permettent une implémentation à grande échelle, implique, avant tout, l'analyse de la perception que les médecins de famille suisses ont de leur rôle dans la prévention. Par conséquent, cette étude a eu pour objectif d'obtenir des informations concernant les questions suivantes : ? Que signifient la prévention et la promotion de la santé pour les médecins de famille suisses ? ? Quelles sont leurs incitations et les barrières rencontrées ? ? Quelles sont leurs idées et leurs suggestions pour faire face à ces contraintes ? ? Quels sont leurs besoins et leurs attentes concernant les outils pour la prévention ? METHODES Nous avons mené un projet de recherche qualitative en utilisant la technique des focus groups pour examiner les questions mentionnées ci-dessus. Une telle technique de collecte de données est particulièrement adaptée à un domaine où l'on connaît mal les perceptions des parties prenantes. Nous avons mené 13 focus groups au total, comprenant des médecins issus de huit cantons: cinq groupes ont eu lieu en Suisse alémanique et huit groupes en Suisse romande. Chaque groupe était composé de 4 à 11 médecins de famille, avec au total 102 participants qui ont été défrayés pour leur participation. Les séances ont été audio-enregistrées et transcrites. ANALYSE DES DONNEES L'analyse du contenu des transcriptions a commencé par la classification des données selon une typologie dont le premier niveau a été développé à partir de la structure de la grille d'entretiens. Cette typologie a été affinée et élargie en regroupant successivement des propos similaires. Une synthèse a été effectuée pour chaque catégorie. Ce rapport est basé sur les résultats de l'analyse des données des cantons francophones. RESULTATS Les médecins perçoivent un changement de leur rôle dans une société et dans un système de santé qui évoluent. Ils soulignent l'importance de la relation personnalisée et durable du médecin de famille avec son patient, atout précieux, qui leur permet de réaliser des activités de prévention individualisées et adaptées à la situation et aux besoins du patient, considérées plus efficaces. Afin de surmonter leur doutes et découragement par rapport aux interventions de prévention, ils pointent la nécessité d'une formation aux nouvelles connaissances en prévention et promotion de la santé et d'une meilleure information aux médecins quant à leur efficacité et importance. Ils montrent le besoin d'un signal clair des politiques par rapport à l'attribution de ce mandat aux médecins de famille et de leur reconnaissance en tant qu'acteur de prévention dans le système de santé.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Assessing the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor illicit drug use

Wastewater-based epidemiology consists in acquiring relevant information about the lifestyle and health status of the population through the analysis of wastewater samples collected at the influent of a wastewater treatment plant. Whilst being a very young discipline, it has experienced an astonishing development since its firs application in 2005. The possibility to gather community-wide information about drug use has been among the major field of application. The wide resonance of the first results sparked the interest of scientists from various disciplines. Since then, research has broadened in innumerable directions. Although being praised as a revolutionary approach, there was a need to critically assess its added value, with regard to the existing indicators used to monitor illicit drug use. The main, and explicit, objective of this research was to evaluate the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology with regards to two particular, although interconnected, dimensions of illicit drug use. The first is related to trying to understand the added value of the discipline from an epidemiological, or societal, perspective. In other terms, to evaluate if and how it completes our current vision about the extent of illicit drug use at the population level, and if it can guide the planning of future prevention measures and drug policies. The second dimension is the criminal one, with a particular focus on the networks which develop around the large demand in illicit drugs. The goal here was to assess if wastewater-based epidemiology, combined to indicators stemming from the epidemiological dimension, could provide additional clues about the structure of drug distribution networks and the size of their market. This research had also an implicit objective, which focused on initiating the path of wastewater- based epidemiology at the Ecole des Sciences Criminelles of the University of Lausanne. This consisted in gathering the necessary knowledge about the collection, preparation, and analysis of wastewater samples and, most importantly, to understand how to interpret the acquired data and produce useful information. In the first phase of this research, it was possible to determine that ammonium loads, measured directly in the wastewater stream, could be used to monitor the dynamics of the population served by the wastewater treatment plant. Furthermore, it was shown that on the long term, the population did not have a substantial impact on consumption patterns measured through wastewater analysis. Focussing on methadone, for which precise prescription data was available, it was possible to show that reliable consumption estimates could be obtained via wastewater analysis. This allowed to validate the selected sampling strategy, which was then used to monitor the consumption of heroin, through the measurement of morphine. The latter, in combination to prescription and sales data, provided estimates of heroin consumption in line with other indicators. These results, combined to epidemiological data, highlighted the good correspondence between measurements and expectations and, furthermore, suggested that the dark figure of heroin users evading harm-reduction programs, which would thus not be measured by conventional indicators, is likely limited. In the third part, which consisted in a collaborative study aiming at extensively investigating geographical differences in drug use, wastewater analysis was shown to be a useful complement to existing indicators. In particular for stigmatised drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, it allowed to decipher the complex picture derived from surveys and crime statistics. Globally, it provided relevant information to better understand the drug market, both from an epidemiological and repressive perspective. The fourth part focused on cannabis and on the potential of combining wastewater and survey data to overcome some of their respective limitations. Using a hierarchical inference model, it was possible to refine current estimates of cannabis prevalence in the metropolitan area of Lausanne. Wastewater results suggested that the actual prevalence is substantially higher compared to existing figures, thus supporting the common belief that surveys tend to underestimate cannabis use. Whilst being affected by several biases, the information collected through surveys allowed to overcome some of the limitations linked to the analysis of cannabis markers in wastewater (i.e., stability and limited excretion data). These findings highlighted the importance and utility of combining wastewater-based epidemiology to existing indicators about drug use. Similarly, the fifth part of the research was centred on assessing the potential uses of wastewater-based epidemiology from a law enforcement perspective. Through three concrete examples, it was shown that results from wastewater analysis can be used to produce highly relevant intelligence, allowing drug enforcement to assess the structure and operations of drug distribution networks and, ultimately, guide their decisions at the tactical and/or operational level. Finally, the potential to implement wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor the use of harmful, prohibited and counterfeit pharmaceuticals was illustrated through the analysis of sibutramine, and its urinary metabolite, in wastewater samples. The results of this research have highlighted that wastewater-based epidemiology is a useful and powerful approach with numerous scopes. Faced with the complexity of measuring a hidden phenomenon like illicit drug use, it is a major addition to the panoply of existing indicators. -- L'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées (ou, selon sa définition anglaise, « wastewater-based epidemiology ») consiste en l'acquisition d'informations portant sur le mode de vie et l'état de santé d'une population via l'analyse d'échantillons d'eaux usées récoltés à l'entrée des stations d'épuration. Bien qu'il s'agisse d'une discipline récente, elle a vécu des développements importants depuis sa première mise en oeuvre en 2005, notamment dans le domaine de l'analyse des résidus de stupéfiants. Suite aux retombées médiatiques des premiers résultats de ces analyses de métabolites dans les eaux usées, de nombreux scientifiques provenant de différentes disciplines ont rejoint les rangs de cette nouvelle discipline en développant plusieurs axes de recherche distincts. Bien que reconnu pour son coté objectif et révolutionnaire, il était nécessaire d'évaluer sa valeur ajoutée en regard des indicateurs couramment utilisés pour mesurer la consommation de stupéfiants. En se focalisant sur deux dimensions spécifiques de la consommation de stupéfiants, l'objectif principal de cette recherche était focalisé sur l'évaluation de la valeur ajoutée de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. La première dimension abordée était celle épidémiologique ou sociétale. En d'autres termes, il s'agissait de comprendre si et comment l'analyse des eaux usées permettait de compléter la vision actuelle sur la problématique, ainsi que déterminer son utilité dans la planification des mesures préventives et des politiques en matière de stupéfiants actuelles et futures. La seconde dimension abordée était celle criminelle, en particulier, l'étude des réseaux qui se développent autour du trafic de produits stupéfiants. L'objectif était de déterminer si cette nouvelle approche combinée aux indicateurs conventionnels, fournissait de nouveaux indices quant à la structure et l'organisation des réseaux de distribution ainsi que sur les dimensions du marché. Cette recherche avait aussi un objectif implicite, développer et d'évaluer la mise en place de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. En particulier, il s'agissait d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires quant à la manière de collecter, traiter et analyser des échantillons d'eaux usées, mais surtout, de comprendre comment interpréter les données afin d'en extraire les informations les plus pertinentes. Dans la première phase de cette recherche, il y pu être mis en évidence que les charges en ammonium, mesurées directement dans les eaux usées permettait de suivre la dynamique des mouvements de la population contributrice aux eaux usées de la station d'épuration de la zone étudiée. De plus, il a pu être démontré que, sur le long terme, les mouvements de la population n'avaient pas d'influence substantielle sur le pattern de consommation mesuré dans les eaux usées. En se focalisant sur la méthadone, une substance pour laquelle des données précises sur le nombre de prescriptions étaient disponibles, il a pu être démontré que des estimations exactes sur la consommation pouvaient être tirées de l'analyse des eaux usées. Ceci a permis de valider la stratégie d'échantillonnage adoptée, qui, par le bais de la morphine, a ensuite été utilisée pour suivre la consommation d'héroïne. Combinée aux données de vente et de prescription, l'analyse de la morphine a permis d'obtenir des estimations sur la consommation d'héroïne en accord avec des indicateurs conventionnels. Ces résultats, combinés aux données épidémiologiques ont permis de montrer une bonne adéquation entre les projections des deux approches et ainsi démontrer que le chiffre noir des consommateurs qui échappent aux mesures de réduction de risque, et qui ne seraient donc pas mesurés par ces indicateurs, est vraisemblablement limité. La troisième partie du travail a été réalisée dans le cadre d'une étude collaborative qui avait pour but d'investiguer la valeur ajoutée de l'analyse des eaux usées à mettre en évidence des différences géographiques dans la consommation de stupéfiants. En particulier pour des substances stigmatisées, telles la cocaïne et l'héroïne, l'approche a permis d'objectiver et de préciser la vision obtenue avec les indicateurs traditionnels du type sondages ou les statistiques policières. Globalement, l'analyse des eaux usées s'est montrée être un outil très utile pour mieux comprendre le marché des stupéfiants, à la fois sous l'angle épidémiologique et répressif. La quatrième partie du travail était focalisée sur la problématique du cannabis ainsi que sur le potentiel de combiner l'analyse des eaux usées aux données de sondage afin de surmonter, en partie, leurs limitations. En utilisant un modèle d'inférence hiérarchique, il a été possible d'affiner les actuelles estimations sur la prévalence de l'utilisation de cannabis dans la zone métropolitaine de la ville de Lausanne. Les résultats ont démontré que celle-ci est plus haute que ce que l'on s'attendait, confirmant ainsi l'hypothèse que les sondages ont tendance à sous-estimer la consommation de cannabis. Bien que biaisés, les données récoltées par les sondages ont permis de surmonter certaines des limitations liées à l'analyse des marqueurs du cannabis dans les eaux usées (i.e., stabilité et manque de données sur l'excrétion). Ces résultats mettent en évidence l'importance et l'utilité de combiner les résultats de l'analyse des eaux usées aux indicateurs existants. De la même façon, la cinquième partie du travail était centrée sur l'apport de l'analyse des eaux usées du point de vue de la police. Au travers de trois exemples, l'utilisation de l'indicateur pour produire du renseignement concernant la structure et les activités des réseaux de distribution de stupéfiants, ainsi que pour guider les choix stratégiques et opérationnels de la police, a été mise en évidence. Dans la dernière partie, la possibilité d'utiliser cette approche pour suivre la consommation de produits pharmaceutiques dangereux, interdits ou contrefaits, a été démontrée par l'analyse dans les eaux usées de la sibutramine et ses métabolites. Les résultats de cette recherche ont mis en évidence que l'épidémiologie par l'analyse des eaux usées est une approche pertinente et puissante, ayant de nombreux domaines d'application. Face à la complexité de mesurer un phénomène caché comme la consommation de stupéfiants, la valeur ajoutée de cette approche a ainsi pu être démontrée.

Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level

1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

Effect of school based physical activity programme (KISS) on fitness and adiposity in primary schoolchildren: cluster randomised controlled trial.

To assess the effectiveness of a school based physical activity programme during one school year on physical and psychological health in young schoolchildren. Cluster randomised controlled trial. 28 classes from 15 elementary schools in Switzerland randomly selected and assigned in a 4:3 ratio to an intervention (n=16) or control arm (n=12) after stratification for grade (first and fifth grade), from August 2005 to June 2006. 540 children, of whom 502 consented and presented at baseline. Children in the intervention arm (n=297) received a multi-component physical activity programme that included structuring the three existing physical education lessons each week and adding two additional lessons a week, daily short activity breaks, and physical activity homework. Children (n=205) and parents in the control group were not informed of an intervention group. For most outcome measures, the assessors were blinded. Primary outcome measures included body fat (sum of four skinfolds), aerobic fitness (shuttle run test), physical activity (accelerometry), and quality of life (questionnaires). Secondary outcome measures included body mass index and cardiovascular risk score (average z score of waist circumference, mean blood pressure, blood glucose, inverted high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides). 498 children completed the baseline and follow-up assessments (mean age 6.9 (SD 0.3) years for first grade, 11.1 (0.5) years for fifth grade). After adjustment for grade, sex, baseline values, and clustering within classes, children in the intervention arm compared with controls showed more negative changes in the z score of the sum of four skinfolds (-0.12, 95 % confidence interval -0.21 to -0.03; P=0.009). Likewise, their z scores for aerobic fitness increased more favourably (0.17, 0.01 to 0.32; P=0.04), as did those for moderate-vigorous physical activity in school (1.19, 0.78 to 1.60; P<0.001), all day moderate-vigorous physical activity (0.44, 0.05 to 0.82; P=0.03), and total physical activity in school (0.92, 0.35 to 1.50; P=0.003). Z scores for overall daily physical activity (0.21, -0.21 to 0.63) and physical quality of life (0.42, -1.23 to 2.06) as well as psychological quality of life (0.59, -0.85 to 2.03) did not change significantly. A school based multi-component physical activity intervention including compulsory elements improved physical activity and fitness and reduced adiposity in children. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15360785.

Lipid composition of fingermark residue and donor classification using GC/MS

Lipids available in fingermark residue represent important targets for enhancement and dating techniques. While it is well known that lipid composition varies among fingermarks of the same donor (intra-variability) and between fingermarks of different donors (inter-variability), the extent of this variability remains uncharacterised. Thus, this worked aimed at studying qualitatively and quantitatively the initial lipid composition of fingermark residue of 25 different donors. Among the 104 detected lipids, 43 were reported for the first time in the literature. Furthermore, palmitic acid, squalene, cholesterol, myristyl myristate and myristyl myristoleate were quantified and their correlation within fingermark residue was highlighted. Ten compounds were then selected and further studied as potential targets for dating or enhancement techniques. It was shown that their relative standard deviation was significantly lower for the intra-variability than for the inter-variability. Moreover, the use of data pretreatments could significantly reduce this variability. Based on these observations, an objective donor classification model was proposed. Hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted on the pre-treated data and the fingermarks of the 25 donors were classified into two main groups, corresponding to "poor" and "rich" lipid donors. The robustness of this classification was tested using fingermark replicates of selected donors. 86% of these replicates were correctly classified, showing the potential of such a donor classification model for research purposes in order to select representative donors based on compounds of interest.

Vascular-endothelial-growth-factor (VEGF) targeting therapies for endocrine refractory or resistant metastatic breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Vascular-endothelial-growth-factor (VEGF) is a key mediator of angiogenesis. VEGF-targeting therapies have shown significant benefits and been successfully integrated in routine clinical practice for other types of cancer, such as metastatic colorectal cancer. By contrast, individual trial results in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are highly variable and their value is controversial. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits (in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS)) and harms (toxicity) of VEGF-targeting therapies in patients with hormone-refractory or hormone-receptor negative metastatic breast cancer. SEARCH METHODS: Searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group's Specialised Register, registers of ongoing trials and proceedings of conferences were conducted in January and September 2011, starting in 2000. Reference lists were scanned and members of the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group, experts and manufacturers of relevant drug were contacted to obtain further information. No language restrictions were applied. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate treatment benefit and non-randomised studies in the routine oncology practice setting to evaluate treatment harms. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed data collection and analysis according to the published protocol. Individual patient data was sought but not provided. Therefore, the meta-analysis had to be based on published data. Summary statistics for the primary endpoint (PFS) were hazard ratios (HRs). MAIN RESULTS: We identified seven RCTs, one register, and five ongoing trials from a total of 347 references. The published trials for VEGF-targeting drugs in MBC were limited to bevacizumab. Four trials, including a total of 2886 patients, were available for the comparison of first-line chemotherapy, with versus without bevacizumab. PFS (HR 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61 to 0.73) and response rate were significantly better for patients treated with bevacizumab, with moderate heterogeneity regarding the magnitude of the effect on PFS. For second-line chemotherapy, a smaller, but still significant benefit in terms of PFS could be demonstrated for patients treated with bevacizumab (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.98), as well as a benefit in tumour response. However, OS did not differ significantly, neither in first- (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.84 to 1.04), nor second-line therapy (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.16). Quality of life (QoL) was evaluated in four trials but results were published for only two of these with no relevant impact. Subgroup analysis stated a significant greater benefit for patients with previous (taxane) chemotherapy and patients with hormone-receptor negative status. Regarding toxicity, data from RCTs and registry data were consistent and in line with the known toxicity profile of bevacizumab. While significantly higher rates of adverse events (AEs) grade III/IV (odds ratio (OR) 1.77; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.18) and serious adverse events (SAEs) (OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.75) were observed in patients treated with bevacizumab, rates of treatment-related deaths were lower in patients treated with bevacizumab (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.36 to 0.99). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The overall patient benefit from adding bevacizumab to first- and second-line chemotherapy in metastatic breast cancer can at best be considered as modest. It is dependent on the type of chemotherapy used and limited to a prolongation of PFS and response rates in both first- and second-line therapy, both surrogate parameters. In contrast, bevacizumab has no significant impact on the patient-related secondary outcomes of OS or QoL, which indicate a direct patient benefit. For this reason, the clinical value of bevacizumab for metastatic breast cancer remains controversial.