Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Biomarkers of oxidative stress and its association with the urinary reducing capacity in bus maintenance workers.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to particles (PM) induces adverse health effects (cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases). A key-role in these adverse effects seems to be played by oxidative stress, which is an excess of reactive oxygen species relative to the amount of reducing species (including antioxidants), the first line of defense against reactive oxygen species. The aim of this study was to document the oxidative stress caused by exposure to respirable particles in vivo, and to test whether exposed workers presented changes in their urinary levels for reducing species.METHODS: Bus depot workers (n = 32) exposed to particles and pollutants (respirable PM4, organic and elemental carbon, particulate metal content, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, NOx, O3) were surveyed over two consecutive days. We collected urine samples before and after each shift, and quantified an oxidative stress biomarker (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine), the reducing capacity and a biomarker of PAH exposure (1-hydroxypyrene). We used a linear mixed model to test for associations between the oxidative stress status of the workers and their particle exposure as well as with their urinary level of reducing species.RESULTS: Workers were exposed to low levels of respirable PM4 (range 25-71 μg/m3). However, urinary levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine increased significantly within each shift and between both days for non-smokers. The between-day increase was significantly correlated (p < 0.001) with the concentrations of organic carbon, NOx, and the particulate copper content. The within-shift increase in 8OHdG was highly correlated to an increase of the urinary reducing capacity (Spearman ρ = 0.59, p < 0.0001).CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm that exposure to components associated to respirable particulate matter causes a systemic oxidative stress, as measured with the urinary 8OHdG. The strong association observed between urinary 8OHdG with the reducing capacity is suggestive of protective or other mechanisms, including circadian effects. Additional investigations should be performed to understand these observations.

Different antigen-presenting cells differ in their capacity to induce lymphokine production and proliferation of an apo-cytochrome c-specific T cell clone.

The activation of an apo-cytochrome c-specific T cell clone was found to differ, depending on the antigen-presenting cell population. Whereas total syngeneic spleen cells and bone marrow macrophages could be shown to trigger proliferation, IL 2, and MAF production by the T cell clone, a B cell lymphoma only induced MAF secretion. Further studies demonstrated that this effect was not due to a different antigen processing by the B lymphoma or to limiting amounts of Ia and antigen molecules on the B lymphoma cell surface. The dissociation of induction of MAF production from IL-2 production/proliferation found with the different antigen-presenting cells indicates strongly that molecules other than Ia and antigen may be required for the complete functional activation of antigen-specific T cell clones.

Glycogen storage capacity and de novo lipogenesis during massive carbohydrate overfeeding in man.

The metabolic balance method was performed on three men to investigate the fate of large excesses of carbohydrate. Glycogen stores, which were first depleted by diet (3 d, 8.35 +/- 0.27 MJ [1994 +/- 65 kcal] decreasing to 5.70 +/- 1.03 MJ [1361 +/- 247 kcal], 15% protein, 75% fat, 10% carbohydrate) and exercise, were repleted during 7 d carbohydrate overfeeding (11% protein, 3% fat, and 86% carbohydrate) providing 15.25 +/- 1.10 MJ (3642 +/- 263 kcal) on the first day, increasing progressively to 20.64 +/- 1.30 MJ (4930 +/- 311 kcal) on the last day of overfeeding. Glycogen depletion was again accomplished with 2 d of carbohydrate restriction (2.52 MJ/d [602 kcal/d], 85% protein, and 15% fat). Glycogen storage capacity in man is approximately 15 g/kg body weight and can accommodate a gain of approximately 500 g before net lipid synthesis contributes to increasing body fat mass. When the glycogen stores are saturated, massive intakes of carbohydrate are disposed of by high carbohydrate-oxidation rates and substantial de novo lipid synthesis (150 g lipid/d using approximately 475 g CHO/d) without postabsorptive hyperglycemia.

Assessment of the capacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to acute medical wards.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of capacity to consent to treatment is an important legal and ethical issue in daily medical practice. In this study we carefully evaluated the capacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to an acute medical ward using an assessment by members of the medical team, the specific Silberfeld's score, the MMSE and an assessment by a senior psychiatrist. METHODS: Over a 3 month period, 195 consecutive patients of an internal medicine ward in a university hospital were included and their capacity to consent was evaluated within 72 hours of admission. RESULTS: Among the 195 patients, 38 were incapable of consenting to treatment (unconscious patients or severe cognitive impairment) and 14 were considered as incapable of consenting by the psychiatrist (prevalence of incapacity to consent of 26.7%). Agreement between the psychiatrist's evaluation and the Silberfeld questionnaire was poor (sensitivity 35.7%, specificity 91.6%). Experienced clinicians showed a higher agreement (sensitivity 57.1%, specificity 96.5%). A decision shared by residents, chief residents and nurses was the best predictor for agreement with the psychiatric assessment (sensitivity 78.6%, specificity 94.3%). CONCLUSION: Prevalence of incapacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward is high. While the standardized Silberfeld questionnaire and the MMSE are not appropriate for the evaluation of the capacity to consent in this setting, an assessment by the multidisciplinary medical team concurs with the evaluation by a senior psychiatrist.

IgG subclass switch capacity is low in switched and in IgM-only, but high in IgD+IgM+, post-germinal center (CD27+) human B cells.

Recent studies have shown that in humans the germinal center reactions produce three types of V(D)J mutated B cells in similar proportions, i.e. Ig-switched, IgD-IgM+ (IgM-only) and IgD+IgM+ cells, and that together they form the CD27+ compartment of recirculating B cells. We investigated the Ig isotype switch capacity of these cells. Peripheral blood B subsets were sorted and IgG subclass secretion in presence or absence of IL-4 was compared in B cell assays which lead to Ig secretion in all (coculture with EL-4 thymoma cells) or only in CD27+ (CD40L stimulation) B cells. Already switched IgG+ B cells showed no significant sequential switch and IgM-only cells also had a low switch capacity, but IgD+CD27+ switched as much as IgD+CD27- B cells to all IgG subclasses. Thus, in switched B cells some alterations compromising further switch options occur frequently; IgM-only cells may result from aborted switch. However, IgD+CD27+ human B cells, extensively V(D)J mutated and "naive" regarding switch, build up a repertoire of B cells combining (1) novel cross-reactive specificities, (2) increased differentiation capacity (including after T-independent stimulation by Staphylococcus aureus Cowan I) and (3) the capacity to produce appropriate isotypes when they respond to novel pathogens.

Colonisation capacity of the Greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula : an experimental study

greater white toothed shrew; Crocidura russula; colonisation capacity

Airborne exposures to monoethanolamine, glycol ethers, and benzyl alcohol during professional cleaning: a pilot study

A growing body of epidemiologic evidence suggests an association between exposure to cleaning products and respiratory dysfunction. Due to the lack of quantitative assessments of respiratory exposures to airborne irritants and sensitizers among professional cleaners, the culpable substances have yet to be identified.Purpose: Focusing on previously identified irritants, our aims were to determine (i) airborne concentrations of monoethanolamine (MEA), glycol ethers, and benzyl alcohol (BA) during different cleaning tasks performed by professional cleaning workers and assess their determinants; and (ii) air concentrations of formaldehyde, a known indoor air contaminant. METHODS: Personal air samples were collected in 12 cleaning companies, and analyzed by conventional methods. RESULTS: Nearly all air concentrations [MEA (n = 68), glycol ethers (n = 79), BA (n = 15), and formaldehyde (n = 45)] were far below (<1/10) of the corresponding Swiss occupational exposure limits (OEL), except for ethylene glycol mono-n-butyl ether (EGBE). For butoxypropanol and BA, no OELs exist. Although only detected once, EGBE air concentrations (n = 4) were high (49.48-58.72mg m(-3)), and close to the Swiss OEL (49mg m(-3)). When substances were not noted as present in safety data sheets of cleaning products used but were measured, air concentrations showed no presence of MEA, while the glycol ethers were often present, and formaldehyde was universally detected. Exposure to MEA was affected by its amount used (P = 0.036), and spraying (P = 0.000) and exposure to butoxypropanol was affected by spraying (P = 0.007) and cross-ventilation (P = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: Professional cleaners were found to be exposed to multiple airborne irritants at low concentrations, thus these substances should be considered in investigations of respiratory dysfunctions in the cleaning industry; especially in specialized cleaning tasks such as intensive floor cleaning.

Similarity in food cleaning techniques within matrilines in wild vervet monkeys.

Social learning and the formation of traditions rely on the ability and willingness to copy one another. A central question is under which conditions individuals adapt behaviour to social influences. Here, we demonstrate that similarities in food processing techniques emerge on the level of matrilines (mother-offspring) but not on the group level in an experiment on six groups of wild vervet monkeys that involved grapes covered with sand. Monkeys regularly ate unclean grapes but also used four cleaning techniques more similarly within matrilines: rubbing in hands, rubbing on substrate, open with mouth, and open with hands. Individual cleaning techniques evolved over time as they converged within matrilines, stabilised at the end and remained stable in a follow-up session more than one year later. The similarity within matrilines persisted when we analyzed only foraging events of individuals in the absence of other matriline members and matriline members used more similar methods than adult full sisters. Thus, momentary conversion or purely genetic causation are unlikely explanations, favouring social learning as mechanism for within matriline similarities. The restriction of traditions to matriline membership rather than to the group level may restrict the development of culture in monkeys relative to apes or humans.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial energetics are associated with maximal aerobic capacity and walking speed in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Lower ambulatory performance with aging may be related to a reduced oxidative capacity within skeletal muscle. This study examined the associations between skeletal muscle mitochondrial capacity and efficiency with walking performance in a group of older adults. METHODS: Thirty-seven older adults (mean age 78 years; 21 men and 16 women) completed an aerobic capacity (VO peak) test and measurement of preferred walking speed over 400 m. Maximal coupled (State 3; St3) mitochondrial respiration was determined by high-resolution respirometry in saponin-permeabilized myofibers obtained from percutanous biopsies of vastus lateralis (n = 22). Maximal phosphorylation capacity (ATP) of vastus lateralis was determined in vivo by P magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 30). Quadriceps contractile volume was determined by magnetic resonance imaging. Mitochondrial efficiency (max ATP production/max O consumption) was characterized using ATP per St3 respiration (ATP/St3). RESULTS: In vitro St3 respiration was significantly correlated with in vivo ATP (r = .47, p = .004). Total oxidative capacity of the quadriceps (St3*quadriceps contractile volume) was a determinant of VO peak (r = .33, p = .006). ATP (r = .158, p = .03) and VO peak (r = .475, p < .0001) were correlated with preferred walking speed. Inclusion of both ATP/St3 and VO peak in a multiple linear regression model improved the prediction of preferred walking speed (r = .647, p < .0001), suggesting that mitochondrial efficiency is an important determinant for preferred walking speed. CONCLUSIONS: Lower mitochondrial capacity and efficiency were both associated with slower walking speed within a group of older participants with a wide range of function. In addition to aerobic capacity, lower mitochondrial capacity and efficiency likely play roles in slowing gait speed with age.

Effects of bisoprolol fumarate on left ventricular size, function, and exercise capacity in patients with heart failure: analysis with magnetic resonance myocardial tagging.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta-blockers can be beneficial in subgroups of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). For metoprolol and carvedilol, an increase in ejection fraction has been shown and favorable effects on the myocardial remodeling process have been reported in some studies. We examined the effects of bisoprolol fumarate on exercise capacity and left ventricular volume with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and applied a novel high-resolution MRI tagging technique to determine myocardial rotation and relaxation velocity. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (mean age, 57 +/- 11 years; mean ejection fraction, 26 +/- 6%) were randomized to bisoprolol fumarate (n = 13) or to placebo therapy (n = 15). The dosage of the drugs was titrated to match that of the the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study protocol. Hemodynamic and gas exchange responses to exercise, MRI measurements of left ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes and ejection fraction, and left ventricular rotation and relaxation velocities were measured before the administration of the drug and 6 and 12 months later. RESULTS: After 1 year, heart rate was reduced in the bisoprolol fumarate group both at rest (81 +/- 12 before therapy versus 61 +/- 11 after therapy; P <.01) and peak exercise (144 +/- 20 before therapy versus 127 +/- 17 after therapy; P <.01), which indicated a reduction in sympathetic drive. No differences were observed in heart rate responses in the placebo group. No differences were observed within or between groups in peak oxygen uptake, although work rate achieved was higher (117.9 +/- 36 watts versus 146.1 +/- 33 watts; P <.05) and exercise time tended to be higher (9.1 +/- 1.7 minutes versus 11.4 +/- 2.8 minutes; P =.06) in the bisoprolol fumarate group. A trend for a reduction in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (-54 mL) and left ventricular end-systolic volume (-62 mL) in the bisoprolol fumarate group occurred after 1 year. Ejection fraction was higher in the bisoprolol fumarate group (25.0 +/- 7 versus 36.2 +/- 9%; P <.05), and the placebo group remained unchanged. Most changes in volume and ejection fraction occurred during the latter 6 months of treatment. With myocardial tagging, insignificant reductions in left ventricular rotation velocity were observed in both groups, whereas relaxation velocity was reduced only after bisoprolol fumarate therapy (by 39%; P <.05). CONCLUSION: One year of bisoprolol fumarate therapy resulted in an improvement in exercise capacity, showed trends for reductions in end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, increased ejection fraction, and significantly reduced relaxation velocity. Although these results generally confirm the beneficial effects of beta-blockade in patients with chronic heart failure, they show differential effects on systolic and diastolic function.

Evaluation of respiratory and dermal occupational exposures to monoethanolamine during cleaning

Professional cleaning is a basic service occupation with a wide variety of tasks carried out in all kind of different sectors and workplaces by a large workforce. One important risk for cleaning workers is the exposure to chemical substances that are present in cleaning products.Monoethanolamine was found to be often present in cleaning products such as general purpose cleaners, bathroom cleaners, floor cleaners and kitchen cleaners. Monoethanolamine can injure the skin, and exposure to monoethanolamine was associated to asthma even when the air concentrations were low. It is a strong irritant and known to be involved in sensitizing mechanisms. It is very likely that the use of cleaning products containing monoethanolamine gives rise to respiratory and dermal exposures. Therefore there is a need to further investigate the exposures to monoethanolamine for both, respiratory and dermal exposure.The determination of monoethanolamine has traditionally been difficult and analytical methods available are little adapted for occupational exposure assessments. For monoethanolamine air concentrations, a sampling and analytical method was already available and could be used. However, a method to analyses samples for skin exposure assessments as well as samples of skin permeation experiments was missing. Therefore one main objective of this master thesis was to search an already developed and described analytical method for the measurement of monoethanolamine in water solutions, and to set it up in the laboratory. Monoethanolamine was analyzed after a derivatisation reaction with o-pthtaldialdehyde. The derivated fluorescing monoethanolamine was then separated with high performance liquid chromatography and detection took place with a fluorescent detector. The method was found to be suitable for qualitative and quantitative analysis of monoethanolamine. An exposure assessment was conducted in the cleaning sector to measure the respiratory and dermal exposures to monoethanolamine during floor cleaning. Stationary air samples (n=36) were collected in 8 companies and samples for dermal exposures (n=12) were collected in two companies. Air concentrations (Mean = 0.18 mg/m3, Standard Deviation = 0.23 mg/m3, geometric Mean = 0.09 mg/m3, Geometric Standard Deviation = 3.50) detected were mostly below 1/10 of the Swiss 8h time weighted average occupational exposure limit. Factors that influenced the measured monoethanolamine air concentrations were room size, ventilation system and the concentration of monoethanolamine in the cleaning product and amount of monoethanolamine used. Measured skin exposures ranged from 0.6 to 128.4 mg/sample. Some cleaning workers that participated in the skin exposure assessment did not use gloves and had direct contact with the solutions containing the cleaning product and monoethanolamine. During the entire sampling campaign, cleaning workers mostly did not use gloves. Cleaning workers are at risk to be regularly exposed to low air concentrations of monoethanolamine. This exposure may be problematic if a worker suffers from allergic reactions (e.g. Asthma). In that case a substitution of the cleaning product may be a good prevention measure as several different cleaning products are available for similar cleaning tasks. Currently there are no occupational exposure limits to compare the skin exposures that were found. To prevent skin exposures, adaptations of the cleaning techniques and the use of gloves should be considered. The simultaneous skin and airborne exposures might accelerate adverse health effects. Overall the risks caused by exposures to monoethanolamine are considered as low to moderate when the cleaning products are used correctly. Whenever possible, skin exposures should be avoided. Further research should consider especially the dermal exposure routes, as very high exposures might occur by skin contact with cleaning products. Dermatitis but also sensitization might be caused by skin exposures. In addition, new biomedical insights are needed to better understand the risks of the dermal exposure. Therefore skin permeability experiments should be considered.

Diving capacity and foraging behaviour of the water shrew (Neomys fodiens)

With regard to semi-aquatic mammals, Schröpfer & Stubbe (1992) distinguished three riparian guilds: the herbivores with the water vole and the beaver; the megacarnivores with the mink and the otter; and the macrocarnivores with water shrews and desmans. Among water shrews, the evolution of aquatic foraging behaviour occurred several times: Nectogale and Chimarrogale in Asia, several species of the genus Sorex in America, and Neomys in Eurasia (Churchfield, 1990). The fairly common European water shrew N. fodiens is the best known. However, the reports on the degree of adaptation to the water habitat are conflicting. Therefore some important findings from the literature are reviewed in this introduction, whereas new data are presented in the following sections. The swimming locomotion of water shrews was analysed by Ruthardt & Schröpfer (1985) and Köhler (1991), and the related morphological adaptation were reviewed by Hutterer (1985) and Churchfield (this volume pp. 49-51). They obviously present a compromise between the requirements for activity on land and in the water. Thermoregulation is a major problem for semi-aquatic mammals, because heat conductance in water is 25-fold greater than in air (Calder, 1969). According to this author, the body temperature of immersed American Sorex palustris dropped by a rate of 2.8 °C per min. However, this may be an experimental artefact, because Neomys fodiens can maintain its body temperature at 37 °C during an immersion of 6 min (Vogel, 1990).

Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.