Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Third International Congress on Epilepsy, Brain, and Mind: Part 2.

Epilepsy is both a disease of the brain and the mind. Here, we present the second of two papers with extended summaries of selected presentations of the Third International Congress on Epilepsy, Brain and Mind (April 3-5, 2014; Brno, Czech Republic). Humanistic, biologic, and therapeutic aspects of epilepsy, particularly those related to the mind, were discussed. The extended summaries provide current overviews of epilepsy, cognitive impairment, and treatment, including brain functional connectivity and functional organization; juvenile myoclonic epilepsy; cognitive problems in newly diagnosed epilepsy; SUDEP including studies on prevention and involvement of the serotoninergic system; aggression and antiepileptic drugs; body, mind, and brain, including pain, orientation, the "self-location", Gourmand syndrome, and obesity; euphoria, obsessions, and compulsions; and circumstantiality and psychiatric comorbidities.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Teachers' remarks about their salaries in 1800 in the Helvetic Republic

For centuries, teachers have complained about their salaries. In the Stapfer inquiry of 1799, some teachers made remarks about financial issues, particularly their low incomes. This inquiry is the main source for the arguments presented here regarding teachers' low salary during this period of the Helvetic Republic. The disparity between the lowest and the highest income was huge in 1799. This fact invites investigations about the people who complained. The evidence indicates incoherence between the complaints regarding low salary and the real income that was earned by these teachers. However, in order for this thesis to be wholly understood, the salaries must be explained; at the time of the Stapfer inquiry, salaries were paid in different currencies, as wages in kind and using divergent measurements. The present article aims to determine who these teachers were and why they complained. The arguments presented by the teachers shed light on the topics of political appeals, the social status of teachers in 1800 and the professionalisation of teachers.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013

Objective: We assessed the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Seychelles between 1989 and 2013. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all hypertension medications. Design and method: Four surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994, 2004 and 2013 (Seychelles Heart Studies I, II, III and IV) in random samples of the population aged 25-64 (N >1000 and participation rate >75% in each sur acceptance of the program, though no objective index could be calculated. In total, 15% of device measurements were above high normal values and would correspond to either newly diagnosed HNT (second measurement required) or to poorly controlled known HTN. It should be stressed that 53 women without HTN who completed the questionnaire had abnormal BP values, including the 29 women who also contacted the research team. It could be speculated that approximately 2% of women would be first diagnosed with HTN following the completion of the initial phase of the screening program. Conclusions: Hypertension screening in the hair salon setting was proved to be conveniently applicable and well accepted both by owners and by customers and could lead to the new diagnosis of hypertension for 2% of the female clients. Further research is warranted to assess the effectiveness of the program.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013 [Poster]

Background: Few data exist on secular trends of high blood pressure (HBP) detection and control in low and middle income countries, particularly in the African region. This study examines trends of HBP over 25 years based on 4 independent population surveys. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all HBP medications. Previous studies have shown a transition from traditional to cardiometabolic cardiovascular risk factors in Seychelles. Age adjusted cardiovascular disease mortality rates is high but decreasing over the last two decades.

Traditional local medicines in the republic of Palau and non-communicable diseases (NCD), signs of effectiveness.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: The aim of this survey was to describe which traditional medicines (TM) are most commonly used for non-communicable diseases (NCD - diabetes, hypertension related to excess weight and obesity) in Pacific islands and with what perceived effectiveness. NCD, especially prevalent in the Pacific, have been subject to many public health interventions, often with rather disappointing results. Innovative interventions are required; one hypothesis is that some local, traditional approaches may have been overlooked. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The method used was a retrospective treatment-outcome study in a nation-wide representative sample of the adult population (about 15,000 individuals) of the Republic of Palau, an archipelago of Micronesia. RESULTS: From 188 respondents (61% female, age 16-87, median 48,), 30 different plants were used, mostly self-prepared (69%), or from a traditional healer (18%). For excess weight, when comparing the two most frequent plants, Morinda citrifolia L. was associated with more adequate outcome than Phaleria nishidae Kaneh. (P=0.05). In case of diabetes, when comparing Phaleria nishidae (=Phaleria nisidai) and Morinda citrifolia, the former was statistically more often associated with the reported outcome "lower blood sugar" (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Statistical association between a plant used and reported outcome is not a proof of effectiveness or safety, but it can help select plants of interest for further studies, e.g. through a reverse pharmacology process, in search of local products which may have a positive impact on population health.