Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

Walking activity measured by accelerometry during respiratory rehabilitation.

PURPOSE: Activity monitoring is considered a highly relevant outcome measure of respiratory rehabilitation. This study aimed to assess the usefulness of a new accelerometric method for characterization of walking activity during a 3-week inpatient rehabilitation program. METHODS: After individual calibration of the accelerometer at different walking speeds, whole-day physical activity was recorded for 15 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on the first and the last days of the program, and for 10 healthy subjects. Data were expressed as percentage of time spent in inactivity, low level activity, and medium level activity, with the latter corresponding to usual walking speed. RESULTS: The patients spent more time being inactive and less time walking than healthy subjects. At the end of the rehabilitation program, medium level activity had increased from 4% to 7% of total recording time. However, the change was not significant after periods of imposed exercise training were excluded. Walking activity increased to a greater degree among the patients with preserved limb muscle strength at entry to the program. Although health status scores improved, the changes did not correlate with the changes in walking activity. CONCLUSION: The findings lead to the conclusion that this new accelerometric method provides detailed analysis of walking activity during respiratory rehabilitation and may represent an additional useful measure of outcome.

A single LC-tandem mass spectrometry method for the simultaneous determination of 14 antimalarial drugs and their metabolites in human plasma.

Among the various determinants of treatment response, the achievement of sufficient blood levels is essential for curing malaria. For helping us at improving our current understanding of antimalarial drugs pharmacokinetics, efficacy and toxicity, we have developed a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (LC-MS/MS) requiring 200mul of plasma for the simultaneous determination of 14 antimalarial drugs and their metabolites which are the components of the current first-line combination treatments for malaria (artemether, artesunate, dihydroartemisinin, amodiaquine, N-desethyl-amodiaquine, lumefantrine, desbutyl-lumefantrine, piperaquine, pyronaridine, mefloquine, chloroquine, quinine, pyrimethamine and sulfadoxine). Plasma is purified by a combination of protein precipitation, evaporation and reconstitution in methanol/ammonium formate 20mM (pH 4.0) 1:1. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of antimalarial drugs is obtained using a gradient elution of 20mM ammonium formate and acetonitrile both containing 0.5% formic acid, followed by rinsing and re-equilibration to the initial solvent composition up to 21min. Analyte quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples, is performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection in the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yield, matrix effect variability, overall process efficiency, standard addition experiments as well as antimalarials short- and long-term stability in plasma. The reactivity of endoperoxide-containing antimalarials in the presence of hemolysis was tested both in vitro and on malaria patients samples. With this method, signal intensity of artemisinin decreased by about 20% in the presence of 0.2% hemolysed red-blood cells in plasma, whereas its derivatives were essentially not affected. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 3.1-12.6%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification 0.15-3.0 and 0.75-5ng/ml for basic/neutral antimalarials and artemisinin derivatives, respectively). This is the first broad-range LC-MS/MS assay covering the currently in-use antimalarials. It is an improvement over previous methods in terms of convenience (a single extraction procedure for 14 major antimalarials and metabolites reducing significantly the analytical time), sensitivity, selectivity and throughput. While its main limitation is investment costs for the equipment, plasma samples can be collected in the field and kept at 4 degrees C for up to 48h before storage at -80 degrees C. It is suited to detecting the presence of drug in subjects for screening purposes and quantifying drug exposure after treatment. It may contribute to filling the current knowledge gaps in the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics relationships of antimalarials and better define the therapeutic dose ranges in different patient populations.

Forensic examination of ink by high-performance thin layer chromatography - The United States Secret Service Digital Ink Library

Forensic examinations of ink have been performed since the beginning of the 20th century. Since the 1960s, the International Ink Library, maintained by the United States Secret Service, has supported those analyses. Until 2009, the search and identification of inks were essentially performed manually. This paper describes the results of a project designed to improve ink samples' analytical and search processes. The project focused on the development of improved standardization procedures to ensure the best possible reproducibility between analyses run on different HPTLC plates. The successful implementation of this new calibration method enabled the development of mathematical algorithms and of a software package to complement the existing ink library.

Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of the new targeted anticancer agents imatinib, nilotinib, dasatinib, sunitinib, sorafenib and lapatinib by LC tandem mass spectrometry.

The treatment of some cancer patients has shifted from traditional, non-specific cytotoxic chemotherapy to chronic treatment with molecular targeted therapies. Imatinib mesylate, a selective inhibitor of tyrosine kinases (TKIs) is the most prominent example of this new era and has opened the way to the development of several additional TKIs, including sunitinib, nilotinib, dasatinib, sorafenib and lapatinib, in the treatment of various hematological malignancies and solid tumors. All these agents are characterized by an important inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability, are at risk for drug interactions, and are not devoid of toxicity. Additionally, they are administered for prolonged periods, anticipating the careful monitoring of their plasma exposure via Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) to be an important component of patients' follow-up. We have developed a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (LC-MS/MS) requiring 100 microL of plasma for the simultaneous determination of the six major TKIs currently in use. Plasma is purified by protein precipitation and the supernatant is diluted in ammonium formate 20 mM (pH 4.0) 1:2. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of TKIs is obtained using a gradient elution of 20 mM ammonium formate pH 2.2 and acetonitrile containing 1% formic acid, followed by rinsing and re-equilibration to the initial solvent composition up to 20 min. Analyte quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples, is performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yield, matrix effects variability (<9.6%), overall process efficiency (87.1-104.2%), as well as TKIs short- and long-term stability in plasma. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 1.3-9.4%), accurate (-9.2 to +9.9%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification comprised between 1 and 10 ng/mL). This is the first broad-range LC-MS/MS assay covering the major currently in-use TKIs. It is an improvement over previous methods in terms of convenience (a single extraction procedure for six major TKIs, reducing significantly the analytical time), sensitivity, selectivity and throughput. It may contribute to filling the current knowledge gaps in the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics relationships of the latest TKIs developed after imatinib and better define their therapeutic ranges in different patient populations in order to evaluate whether a systematic TDM-guided dose adjustment of these anticancer drugs could contribute to minimize the risk of major adverse reactions and to increase the probability of efficient, long lasting, therapeutic response.

Synchronization of EEG: bivariate and multivariate measures.

Synchronization behavior of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals is important for decoding information processing in the human brain. Modern multichannel EEG allows a transition from traditional measurements of synchronization in pairs of EEG signals to whole-brain synchronization maps. The latter can be based on bivariate measures (BM) via averaging over pair-wise values or, alternatively, on multivariate measures (MM), which directly ascribe a single value to the synchronization in a group. In order to compare BM versus MM, we applied nine different estimators to simulated multivariate time series with known parameters and to real EEGs.We found widespread correlations between BM and MM, which were almost frequency-independent for all the measures except coherence. The analysis of the behavior of synchronization measures in simulated settings with variable coupling strength, connection probability, and parameter mismatch showed that some of them, including S-estimator, S-Renyi, omega, and coherence, aremore sensitive to linear interdependences,while others, like mutual information and phase locking value, are more responsive to nonlinear effects. Onemust consider these properties together with the fact thatMM are computationally less expensive and, therefore, more efficient for the large-scale data sets than BM while choosing a synchronization measure for EEG analysis.

Individual monitoring of medical staff working in interventional radiology in Switzerland using double dosimetry

Physicians who frequently perform fluoroscopic examinations are exposed to high intensity radiation fields. The exposure monitoring is performed with a regular personal dosimeter under the apron in order to estimate the effective dose. However, large parts of the body are not protected by the apron (e.g. arms, head). Therefore, it is recommended to wear a supplemental dosimeter over the apron to obtain a better representative estimate of the effective dose. The over-apron dosimeter can also be used to estimate the eye lens dose. The goal of this study was to investigate the relevance of double dosimetry in interventional radiology. First the calibration procedure of the dosimeters placed over the apron was tested. Then, results of double dosimetry during the last five years were analyzed. We found that the personal dose equivalent measured over a lead apron was underestimated by ∼20% to ∼40% for X-ray beam qualities used in radiology. Measurements made over five-year period confirm that the use of a single under-apron dosimeter is inadequate for personnel monitoring. Relatively high skin dose (>10 mSv/month) would have remained undetected without a second dosimeter placed on the apron.

Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Determination of nicotine and nicotine metabolites in urine by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry: Potential use of smokeless tobacco products by ice hockey players.

Consumption of nicotine in the form of smokeless tobacco (snus, snuff, chewing tobacco) or nicotine-containing medication (gum, patch) may benefit sport practice. Indeed, use of snus seems to be a growing trend and investigating nicotine consumption amongst professional athletes is of major interest to sport authorities. Thus, a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for the detection and quantification of nicotine and its principal metabolites cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide in urine was developed. Sample preparation was performed by liquid-liquid extraction followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-MS/MS) operated in electrospray positive ionization (ESI) mode with selective reaction monitoring (SRM) data acquisition. The method was validated and calibration curves were linear over the selected concentration ranges of 10-10,000 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 10-5000 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide, with calculated coefficients of determination (R(2)) greater than 0.95. The total extraction efficiency (%) was concentration dependent and ranged between 70.4 and 100.4%. The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) for all analytes was 10 ng/mL. Repeatability and intermediate precision were ?9.4 and ?9.9%, respectively. In order to measure the prevalence of nicotine exposure during the 2009 Ice Hockey World Championships, 72 samples were collected and analyzed after the minimum of 3 months storage period and complete removal of identification means as required by the 2009 International Standards for Laboratories (ISL). Nicotine and/or metabolites were detected in every urine sample, while concentration measurements indicated an exposure within the last 3 days for eight specimens out of ten. Concentrations of nicotine, cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide were found to range between 11 and 19,750, 13 and 10,475, 10 and 8217, 11 and 3396, and 13 and 1640 ng/mL, respectively. When proposing conservative concentration limits for nicotine consumption prior and/or during the games (50 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine and trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 25 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide), about half of the hockey players were qualified as consumers. These findings significantly support the likelihood of extensive smokeless nicotine consumption. However, since such conclusions can only be hypothesized, the potential use of smokeless tobacco as a doping agent in ice hockey requires further investigation.

Parametric estimation of pulse arrival time: a robust approach to pulse wave velocity.

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a surrogate of arterial stiffness and represents a non-invasive marker of cardiovascular risk. The non-invasive measurement of PWV requires tracking the arrival time of pressure pulses recorded in vivo, commonly referred to as pulse arrival time (PAT). In the state of the art, PAT is estimated by identifying a characteristic point of the pressure pulse waveform. This paper demonstrates that for ambulatory scenarios, where signal-to-noise ratios are below 10 dB, the performance in terms of repeatability of PAT measurements through characteristic points identification degrades drastically. Hence, we introduce a novel family of PAT estimators based on the parametric modeling of the anacrotic phase of a pressure pulse. In particular, we propose a parametric PAT estimator (TANH) that depicts high correlation with the Complior(R) characteristic point D1 (CC = 0.99), increases noise robustness and reduces by a five-fold factor the number of heartbeats required to obtain reliable PAT measurements.

Comparison of application of the ACC/AHA guidelines, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and European Society of Cardiology guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in a European cohort.

IMPORTANCE: The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. OBJECTIVE: To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. RESULTS: The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.