Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Immunolocalization of GLUTX1 in the testis and to specific brain areas and vasopressin-containing neurons.

GLUTX1 or GLUT8 is a newly characterized glucose transporter isoform that is expressed at high levels in the testis and brain and at lower levels in several other tissues. Its expression was mapped in the testis and brain by using specific antibodies. In the testis, immunoreactivity was expressed in differentiating spermatocytes of type 1 stage but undetectable in mature spermatozoa. In the brain, GLUTX1 distribution was selective and localized to a variety of structures, mainly archi- and paleocortex. It was found in hippocampal and dentate gyrus neurons as well as amygdala and primary olfactory cortex. In these neurons, its location was close to the plasma membrane of cell bodies and sometimes in proximal dendrites. High GLUTX1 levels were detected in the hypothalamus, supraoptic nucleus, median eminence, and the posterior pituitary. Neurons of these areas synthesize and secrete vasopressin and oxytocin. As shown by double immunofluorescence microscopy and immunogold labeling, GLUTX1 was expressed only in vasopressin neurons. By immunogold labeling of ultrathin cryosections microscopy, GLUTX1 was identified in dense core vesicles of synaptic nerve endings of the supraoptic nucleus and secretory granules of the vasopressin positive neurons. This localization suggests an involvement of GLUTX1 both in specific neuron function and endocrine mechanisms.

Human finger somatotopy in areas 3b, 1, and 2: A 7T fMRI study using a natural stimulus.

To study the properties of human primary somatosensory (S1) cortex as well as its role in cognitive and social processes, it is necessary to noninvasively localize the cortical representations of the body. Being arguably the most relevant body parts for tactile exploration, cortical representations of fingers are of particular interest. The aim of the present study was to investigate the cortical representation of individual fingers (D1-D5), using human touch as a stimulus. Utilizing the high BOLD sensitivity and spatial resolution at 7T, we found that each finger is represented within three subregions of S1 in the postcentral gyrus. Within each of these three areas, the fingers are sequentially organized (from D1 to D5) in a somatotopic manner. Therefore, these finger representations likely reflect distinct activations of BAs 3b, 1, and 2, similar to those described in electrophysiological work in non-human primates. Quantitative analysis of the local BOLD responses revealed that within BA3b, each finger representation is specific to its own stimulation without any cross-finger responsiveness. This finger response selectivity was less prominent in BA 1 and in BA 2. A test-retest procedure highlighted the reproducibility of the results and the robustness of the method for BA 3b. Finally, the representation of the thumb was enlarged compared to the other fingers within BAs 1 and 2. These findings extend previous human electrophysiological and neuroimaging data but also reveal differences in the functional organization of S1 in human and nonhuman primates. Hum Brain Mapp 35:213-226, 2014. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Anatomical distribution of areas of preserved cartilage in advanced femorotibial osteoarthritis using CT arthrography (Part 1).

OBJECTIVE: To determine subregions of normal and abnormal cartilage in advanced stages of femorotibial osteoarthritis (OA) by mapping the entire femorotibial joint in a cohort of pre-total knee replacement (TKR) OA knees. DESIGN: We defined an areal subdivision of the femorotibial articular cartilage surface on CT arthrography (CTA), allowing the division of the femorotibial articular surface into multiple (up to n = 204 per knee) subregions and the comparison of the same areas between different knees. Two readers independently classified each cartilage area as normal, abnormal or non-assessable in 41 consecutive pre-TKR OA knees. RESULTS: A total of 6447 cartilage areas (from 41 knees) were considered assessable by both readers. The average proportion of preserved cartilage was lower in the medial femorotibial joint than in the lateral femorotibial joint for both readers (32.0/69.8% and 33.9/68.5% (medial/lateral) for reader 1 and 2 respectively, all P < 0.001). High frequencies of normal cartilage were observed at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle (up to 89%), and the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment (up to 100%). The posterior aspect of the medial condyle was the area that most frequently exhibited preserved cartilage in the medial femorotibial joint, contrasting with the high frequency of cartilage lesions in the rest of that compartment. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle, and at the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment, may be frequently preserved in advanced grades of OA.

Development of projections from auditory to visual areas in the cat.

In newborn kittens, cortical auditory areas (including AI and AII) send transitory projections to ipsi- and contralateral visual areas 17 and 18. These projections originate mainly from neurons in supragranular layers but also from a few in infragranular layers (Innocenti and Clarke: Dev. Brain Res. 14:143-148, '84; Clarke and Innocenti: J. Comp. Neurol. 251:1-22, '86). The postnatal development of these projections was studied with injections of anterograde tracers (wheat germ agglutinin-horseradish peroxidase [WGA-HRP]) in AI and AII and of retrograde tracers (WGA-HRP, fast blue, diamidino yellow, rhodamine-labeled latex beads) in areas 17 and 18. It was found that the projections are nearly completely eliminated in development, this, by the end of the first postnatal month. Until then, most of the transitory axons seem to remain confined to the white matter and the depth of layer VI; a few enter it further but do not appear to form terminal arbors. As for other transitory cortical projections the disappearance of the transitory axons seems not to involve death of their neurons of origin. In kittens older than 1 month and in normal adult cats, retrograde tracer injections restricted to, or including, areas 17 and 18 label only a few neurons in areas AI and AII. Unlike the situation in the kitten, nearly all of these are restricted to layers V and VI. A similar distribution of neurons projecting from auditory to visual areas is found in adult cats bilaterally enucleated at birth, which suggests that the postnatal elimination of the auditory-to-visual projection is independent of visual experience and more generally of information coming from the retina.