212 resultados para Box-Jenkins method


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Estimating the time since the last discharge of firearms and/or spent cartridges may be a useful piece of information in forensic firearm-related cases. The current approach consists of studying the diffusion of selected volatile organic compounds (such as naphthalene) released during the shooting using solid phase micro-extraction (SPME). However, this technique works poorly on handgun car-tridges because the extracted quantities quickly fall below the limit of detection. In order to find more effective solutions and further investigate the aging of organic gunshot residue after the discharge of handgun cartridges, an extensive study was carried out in this work using a novel approach based on high capacity headspace sorptive extraction (HSSE). By adopting this technique, for the first time 51 gunshot residue (GSR) volatile organic compounds could be simultaneously detected from fired handgun cartridge cases. Application to aged specimens showed that many of those compounds presented significant and complementary aging profiles. Compound-to-compound ratios were also tested and proved to be beneficial both in reducing the variability of the aging curves and in enlarging the time window useful in a forensic casework perspective. The obtained results were thus particularly promising for the development of a new complete forensic dating methodology.

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The use of artificial nest-boxes has led to significant progress in bird conservation and in our understanding of the functional and evolutionary ecology of free-ranging birds that exploit cavities for roosting and reproduction. Nest-boxes and their improved accessibility have made it easier to perform comparative and experimental field investigations. However, concerns about the generality and applicability of scientific studies involving birds breeding in nest-boxes have been raised because the occupants of boxes may differ from conspecifics occupying other nest sites. Here we review the existing evidence demonstrating the importance of nest-box design to individual life-history traits in three falcon (Falconiformes) and seven owl (Strigiformes) species, as well as the extent to which publications on these birds describe the characteristics of exploited artificial nest-boxes in their 'methods' sections. More than 60% of recent publications did not provide any details on nest-box design (e.g. size, shape, material), despite several calls >15 years ago to increase the reporting of such information. We exemplify and discuss how variation in nest-box characteristics can affect or confound conclusions from nest-box studies and conclude that it is of overall importance to present details of nest-box characteristics in scientific publications.

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Insight into the function of sleep may be gained by studying animals in the ecological context in which sleep evolved. Until recently, technological constraints prevented electroencephalogram (EEG) studies of animals sleeping in the wild. However, the recent development of a small recorder (Neurologger 2) that animals can carry on their head permitted the first recordings of sleep in nature. To facilitate sleep studies in the field and to improve the welfare of experimental animals, herein, we test the feasibility of using minimally invasive surface and subcutaneous electrodes to record the EEG in barn owls. The EEG and behaviour of four adult owls in captivity and of four chicks in a nest box in the field were recorded. We scored a 24-h period for each adult bird for wakefulness, slow-wave sleep (SWS), and rapid-eye movement (REM) sleep using 4 s epochs. Although the quality and stability of the EEG signals recorded via subcutaneous electrodes were higher when compared to surface electrodes, the owls' state was readily identifiable using either electrode type. On average, the four adult owls spent 13.28 h awake, 9.64 h in SWS, and 1.05 h in REM sleep. We demonstrate that minimally invasive methods can be used to measure EEG-defined wakefulness, SWS, and REM sleep in owls and probably other animals.

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We present a novel hybrid (or multiphysics) algorithm, which couples pore-scale and Darcy descriptions of two-phase flow in porous media. The flow at the pore-scale is described by the Navier?Stokes equations, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is used to model the evolution of the fluid?fluid interface. An extension of the Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method is employed to construct the Darcy-scale problem. First, a set of local interpolators for pressure and velocity is constructed by solving the Navier?Stokes equations; then, a coarse mass-conservation problem is constructed by averaging the pore-scale velocity over the cells of a coarse grid, which act as control volumes; finally, a conservative pore-scale velocity field is reconstructed and used to advect the fluid?fluid interface. The method relies on the localization assumptions used to compute the interpolators (which are quite straightforward extensions of the standard MsFV) and on the postulate that the coarse-scale fluxes are proportional to the coarse-pressure differences. By numerical simulations of two-phase problems, we demonstrate that these assumptions provide hybrid solutions that are in good agreement with reference pore-scale solutions and are able to model the transition from stable to unstable flow regimes. Our hybrid method can naturally take advantage of several adaptive strategies and allows considering pore-scale fluxes only in some regions, while Darcy fluxes are used in the rest of the domain. Moreover, since the method relies on the assumption that the relationship between coarse-scale fluxes and pressure differences is local, it can be used as a numerical tool to investigate the limits of validity of Darcy's law and to understand the link between pore-scale quantities and their corresponding Darcy-scale variables.

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Whole-body (WB) planar imaging has long been one of the staple methods of dosimetry, and its quantification has been formalized by the MIRD Committee in pamphlet no 16. One of the issues not specifically addressed in the formalism occurs when the count rates reaching the detector are sufficiently high to result in camera count saturation. Camera dead-time effects have been extensively studied, but all of the developed correction methods assume static acquisitions. However, during WB planar (sweep) imaging, a variable amount of imaged activity exists in the detector's field of view as a function of time and therefore the camera saturation is time dependent. A new time-dependent algorithm was developed to correct for dead-time effects during WB planar acquisitions that accounts for relative motion between detector heads and imaged object. Static camera dead-time parameters were acquired by imaging decaying activity in a phantom and obtaining a saturation curve. Using these parameters, an iterative algorithm akin to Newton's method was developed, which takes into account the variable count rate seen by the detector as a function of time. The algorithm was tested on simulated data as well as on a whole-body scan of high activity Samarium-153 in an ellipsoid phantom. A complete set of parameters from unsaturated phantom data necessary for count rate to activity conversion was also obtained, including build-up and attenuation coefficients, in order to convert corrected count rate values to activity. The algorithm proved successful in accounting for motion- and time-dependent saturation effects in both the simulated and measured data and converged to any desired degree of precision. The clearance half-life calculated from the ellipsoid phantom data was calculated to be 45.1 h after dead-time correction and 51.4 h with no correction; the physical decay half-life of Samarium-153 is 46.3 h. Accurate WB planar dosimetry of high activities relies on successfully compensating for camera saturation which takes into account the variable activity in the field of view, i.e. time-dependent dead-time effects. The algorithm presented here accomplishes this task.

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n this paper the iterative MSFV method is extended to include the sequential implicit simulation of time dependent problems involving the solution of a system of pressure-saturation equations. To control numerical errors in simulation results, an error estimate, based on the residual of the MSFV approximate pressure field, is introduced. In the initial time steps in simulation iterations are employed until a specified accuracy in pressure is achieved. This initial solution is then used to improve the localization assumption at later time steps. Additional iterations in pressure solution are employed only when the pressure residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Efficiency of the strategy and the error control criteria are numerically investigated. This paper also shows that it is possible to derive an a-priori estimate and control based on the allowed pressure-equation residual to guarantee the desired accuracy in saturation calculation.

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Quantification is a major problem when using histology to study the influence of ecological factors on tree structure. This paper presents a method to prepare and to analyse transverse sections of cambial zone and of conductive phloem in bark samples. The following paper (II) presents the automated measurement procedure. Part I here describes and discusses the preparation method, and the influence of tree age on the observed structure. Highly contrasted images of samples extracted at breast height during dormancy were analysed with an automatic image analyser. Between three young (38 years) and three old (147 years) trees, age-related differences were identified by size and shape parameters, at both cell and tissue levels. In the cambial zone, older trees had larger and more rectangular fusiform initials. In the phloem, sieve tubes were also larger, but their shape did not change and the area for sap conduction was similar in both categories. Nevertheless, alterations were limited, and demanded statistical analysis to be identified and ascertained. The physiological implications of the structural changes are discussed.

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The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

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Introduction: Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a major environmental risk factor. Indoor contaminants come from a variety of sources, which can include inadequate ventilation, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), biological agents, combustion products, and ETS. Because ETS is one of the most frequent causes of IAQ complaints as well as the high mortality of passive smoking, in June 2004 the University of Geneva made the decision to ban smoking inside the so called "Uni-Mail" building, the biggest Swiss University human science building of recent construction, and the ordinance was applied beginning in October 2004. This report presents the finding related to the IAQ of the "Uni-Mail" building before and after smoking bans using nicotine, suspended dust, condensate and PAHs level in air as tracers to perform an assessment of passive tobacco exposure for non-smokers inside the building. Methods: Respirable particles (RSP) A real time aerosol monitor (model DataRAM)was place at sampling post 1, level ground floor. Condensate It consists in extracting any organic matter taken on the glass fibre filters by MeOH, and then measuring the total absorbent of the MeOH extract to the UV wavelength of 447 nm. Nicotine Nicotine was taken by means of cartridges containing of XAD-4 to the fixed flow of 0.5 L/min. The analytical method used for the determination of nicotine is based on gas chromatography with Nitrogen selective detector GC-NPD. Results: Figure 1 shows the box plot density display of 3 parameters before and after smoking bans for all 7 sampling posts: dust, condensate and nicotine in air in μg/m3. Conclusion: Before the smoking ban, the level of the concentrations of respirable particles (RSP) is raised more, average of the day 320 μg/m3, with peaks of more than 1000 μg/m3, compared with the values of the surrounding air between 22 and 30 μg/m3. The nicotine level is definitely more important (average 5.53 μg/m3, field 1.5 to 17.9 μg/m3). Once the smoking bans inside the building were applied, one notes a clear improvement in terms of concentrations of pollutants. For dust, the concentration fell by 3 times (average: 130 μg/m3, range: 40 to 160 μg/m3) and that of nicotine by 10 times (average: 0.53 μg/m3, range: 0 to 1.69 μg/m3) compared to that found before smoking bans. The outdoor air RSP concentration was 22 μg/m3 or 10 times lower. Nicotine seems to be the best tracer for ETS free of interference, independent of location or season.

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We present a method for segmenting white matter tracts from high angular resolution diffusion MR. images by representing the data in a 5 dimensional space of position and orientation. Whereas crossing fiber tracts cannot be separated in 3D position space, they clearly disentangle in 5D position-orientation space. The segmentation is done using a 5D level set method applied to hyper-surfaces evolving in 5D position-orientation space. In this paper we present a methodology for constructing the position-orientation space. We then show how to implement the standard level set method in such a non-Euclidean high dimensional space. The level set theory is basically defined for N-dimensions but there are several practical implementation details to consider, such as mean curvature. Finally, we will show results from a synthetic model and a few preliminary results on real data of a human brain acquired by high angular resolution diffusion MRI.

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A solution of (18)F was standardised with a 4pibeta-4pigamma coincidence counting system in which the beta detector is a one-inch diameter cylindrical UPS89 plastic scintillator, positioned at the bottom of a well-type 5''x5'' NaI(Tl) gamma-ray detector. Almost full detection efficiency-which was varied downwards electronically-was achieved in the beta-channel. Aliquots of this (18)F solution were also measured using 4pigamma NaI(Tl) integral counting and Monte Carlo calculated efficiencies as well as the CIEMAT-NIST method. Secondary measurements of the same solution were also performed with an IG11 ionisation chamber whose equivalent activity is traceable to the Système International de Référence through the contribution IRA-METAS made to it in 2001; IRA's degree of equivalence was found to be close to the key comparison reference value (KCRV). The (18)F activity predicted by this coincidence system agrees closely with the ionisation chamber measurement and is compatible within one standard deviation of the other primary measurements. This work demonstrates that our new coincidence system can standardise short-lived radionuclides used in nuclear medicine.