73 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off


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Genetic background, prenatal and post-natal early-life conditions influence the development of interconnected physiological systems and thereby shape the phenotype. Certain combinations of genotypes and pre- and post-natal conditions may provide higher fitness in a specific environmental context. Here, we investigated how grey partridges Perdix perdix of two strains (wild and domesticated) cope physiologically with pre- and post-natal predictable vs. unpredictable food supply. Food unpredictability occurs frequently in wild environments and requires physiological and behavioural adjustments. Well-orchestrated and efficient physiological systems are presumably more vital in a wild environment as compared to captivity. We thus predicted that wild-strain grey partridges have a stronger immunity, glucocorticoid (GC) stress response and oxidative stress resistance (OSR) than domesticated birds, which have undergone adaptations to captivity. We also predicted that wild-strain birds react more strongly to environmental stimuli and, when faced with harsh prenatal conditions, are better able to prepare their offspring for similarly poor post-natal conditions than birds of domesticated origin. We found that wild-strain offspring were physiologically better prepared for stressful situations as compared to the domesticated strain. They had a high GC stress response and a high OSR when kept under predictable food supply. Wild-strain parents reacted to prenatal unpredictable food supply by lowering their offspring's GC stress response, which potentially lowered GC-induced oxidative pressure. No such pattern was evident in the domesticated birds. Irrespective of strain and prenatal feeding scheme, post-natal unpredictable food supply boosted immune indices, and GC stress response was negatively related to antibody response in females and to mitochondrial superoxide production. Wild-strain grey partridge showed fitness-relevant physiological advantages and appeared to prepare their offspring for the prospective environment. Negative relationships between GC stress response, immunity and oxidative indices imply a pivotal role of an organism's oxidative balance and support the importance of considering multiple physiological systems simultaneously.

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OBJECTIVE: Surface magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for aortic plaque assessment is limited by the trade-off between penetration depth and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). For imaging the deep seated aorta, a combined surface and transesophageal MRI (TEMRI) technique was developed 1) to determine the individual contribution of TEMRI and surface coils to the combined signal, 2) to measure the signal improvement of a combined surface and TEMRI over surface MRI, and 3) to assess for reproducibility of plaque dimension analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 24 patients six black blood proton-density/T2-weighted fast-spin echo images were obtained using three surface and one TEMRI coil for SNR measurements. Reproducibility of plaque dimensions (combined surface and TEMRI) was measured in 10 patients. TEMRI contributed 68% of the signal in the aortic arch and descending aorta, whereas the overall signal gain using the combined technique was up to 225%. Plaque volume measurements had an intraclass correlation coefficient of as high as 0.97. CONCLUSION: Plaque volume measurements for the quantification of aortic plaque size are highly reproducible for combined surface and TEMRI. The TEMRI coil contributes considerably to the aortic MR signal. The combined surface and TEMRI approach improves aortic signal significantly as compared to surface coils alone. CONDENSED ABSTRACT: Conventional MRI aortic plaque visualization is limited by the penetration depth of MRI surface coils and may lead to suboptimal image quality with insufficient reproducibility. By combining a transesophageal MRI (TEMRI) with surface MRI coils we enhanced local and overall image SNR for improved image quality and reproducibility.

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Mitochondria have a fundamental role in the transduction of energy from food into ATP. The coupling between food oxidation and ATP production is never perfect, but may nevertheless be of evolutionary significance. The 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis suggests that 'mild' mitochondrial uncoupling evolved as a protective mechanism against the excessive production of damaging reactive oxygen species (ROS). Because resource allocation and ROS production are thought to shape animal life histories, alternative life-history trajectories might be driven by individual variation in the degree of mitochondrial uncoupling. We tested this hypothesis in a small bird species, the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata), by treating adults with the artificial mitochondrial uncoupler 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP) over a 32-month period. In agreement with our expectations, the uncoupling treatment increased metabolic rate. However, we found no evidence that treated birds enjoyed lower oxidative stress levels or greater survival rates, in contrast to previous results in other taxa. In vitro experiments revealed lower sensitivity of ROS production to DNP in mitochondria isolated from skeletal muscles of zebra finch than mouse. In addition, we found significant reductions in the number of eggs laid and in the inflammatory immune response in treated birds. Altogether, our data suggest that the 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis may not be applicable for zebra finches, presumably because of lower effects of mitochondrial uncoupling on mitochondrial ROS production in birds than in mammals. Nevertheless, mitochondrial uncoupling appeared to be a potential life-history regulator of traits such as fecundity and immunity at adulthood, even with food supplied ad libitum.

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P>1. Root herbivores and pathogens interfere with basic below-ground plant function, and can thereby affect plant fitness and spatial and temporal patterns in natural plant communities. However, there has been little development of concepts and theories on below-ground plant defence, a deficit that is in contrast to the abundance of theorizing for above-ground plant parts.2. A review of the past 10 years of research on below-ground plant-herbivore interactions has revealed that, similar to above-ground tissues, root defences can be expressed constitutively or induced upon herbivore attack, and can be classified into direct and indirect traits, tolerance, and escape. Indeed, it has been shown that roots tolerate herbivory by outgrowing or re-growing lost tissues, or resist it by producing secondary metabolites that are toxic to herbivores or attract natural enemies of herbivores.3. We propose that, similar to above-ground plant-herbivore theories, the partition of abiotic and biotic factors over ecological succession can serve as the basis for predicting investment in defence strategies below-ground.4. Investigation of herbivore pressure and root responses along primary and secondary successional gradients suggests that: (i) roots are often fast growing, thinner and softer in early compared to later succession. (ii) Insect and nematode herbivore pressure increases until mid-succession and later decreases. (iii) Mycorrhizal abundance increases with succession, and the composition of fungal species changes through succession, often shifting from arbuscular mycorrhizae to ecto-mycorrhizae.5. Based on these findings, and on classical (above-ground) plant defence theory, we suggest the following set of testable hypotheses for below-ground plant defence: (i) During succession, early plants invest most of their resources in growth and less in defences (associated with a general lack of herbivores and pathogens, and with limited availability of resources in the system), therefore relying more on re-growth (tolerance) strategies. (ii) During mid-succession, a buildup of herbivore pressure facilitates replacement by plant species that exhibit greater direct and indirect defence strategies. (iii) Constitutive and inducible levels of defences may trade-off, and early successional plants should rely more on induction of defences after herbivore attack, whereas late successional plants will increasingly rely on constitutively produced levels of physical and chemical defence. (iv) Successional changes in microbial associations have consequences for root defence by improving plant nutrition and defence expression as well as directly competing for root space; however, toxic or impenetrable root defences may also limit association with root symbionts, and so may constrain the expression of root defence.

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Life-history models predict an evolutionary trade-off in the allocation of resources to current versus future reproduction. This corresponds, at the physiological level, to a trade-off in the allocation of resources to current reproduction or to the immune system, which will enhance survival and therefore future reproduction. For clutch size, life-history models predict a positive correlation between current measurement in eggs and the subsequent parasite load. Tn a population of great tits, we analyzed the correlation between natural clutch size of females and the subsequent prevalence of Plasmodium spp., a potentially harmful blood parasite. Females that showed, 14 days after hatching of the nestlings, an infection with Plasmodium had a significantly larger clutch (9.3 eggs +/- 0.5 SE, n = 18) than uninfected females (8.0 eggs +/- 0.2 SE, n = 80), as predicted by the allocation trade-off. Clutch size was positively correlated with tile prevalence of Plasmodium, but brood size 14 days after hatching was not. This suggests that females incur higher costs during laying the clutch than during rearing nestlings. Infection status of some females changed between years, and these changes were significantly correlated with a change in clutch size as predicted by die trade-off. The link between reproductive effort and parasitism may represent a possible mechanism by which the cost of egg production is mediated into future survival and may thereby be an important selective force in the shaping of clutch size.

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In birds, sibling competition encompasses several activities, one of which is jostling for position, that is, competing for the location in the nest where parents predictably deliver food items. We hypothesized that nestlings that compete by jostling for position may fall out of the nest either accidentally or because siblings push each other to reduce brood size. This hypothesis predicts that in a competitive environment needy nestlings trade-off the benefit of being fed against the cost of falling out of the nest. As a first attempt to evaluate this hypothesis, we experimentally manipulated the number of young per brood in the colonial Alpine swift, Apus melba. Nestlings fell out of their colony more frequently when reared in enlarged than in reduced broods. Because brood size manipulation affects not only the number of young per nest but also their body condition, we analysed an extended data set to disentangle these two factors. This analysis showed that, independently of brood size, nestlings in poor condition and those reared in broods where sibling differed markedly in weight were more likely to disappear from the colony. Nestling disappearance also occurred predominantly in nests close to the colony entrances. Although nestling swifts can wander in the colony and become adopted in neighbouring nests, we found no evidence that wandering per se increased the risk of falling out of the colony. Our study therefore highlights a novel cost of scramble competition.

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Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

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Critical size at which metamorphosis is initiated represents an important checkpoint in insect development. Here, we use experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster to test the long-standing hypothesis that larval malnutrition should favour a smaller critical size. We report that six fly populations subject to 112 generations of laboratory natural selection on an extremely poor larval food evolved an 18% smaller critical size (compared to six unselected control populations). Thus, even though critical size is not plastic with respect to nutrition, smaller critical size can evolve as an adaptation to nutritional stress. We also demonstrate that this reduction in critical size (rather than differences in growth rate) mediates a trade-off in body weight that the selected populations experience on standard food, on which they show a 15-17% smaller adult body weight. This illustrates how developmental mechanisms that control life history may shape constraints and trade-offs in life history evolution.

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Abstract Animal behaviours or structures are used by senders as signals to try to increase their fitness by altering the behaviour of receivers. A large fraction of studies on sexual selection have focussed on male ornaments and have demonstrated that these ornaments signal the quality of their owner and are used by female for mate choice. Although females can also exhibit conspicuous traits, studies on female ornaments are markedly lacking. In chapter 1, we show that female starlings are showier on chest whiteness than males and that females' whiteness may potentially indicate female condition at the start of breeding and provide fitness advantages to breeding birds. Furthermore we point out that feather density and abrasion are important factors shaping the expression of chest whiteness. This suggests that further understanding of the evolution of chest whiteness in Starlings requires to examine the environmental and physiological factors that shape feather condition. Plumage may suffer from damage through abrasion and bacterial activity. In chapter 2, we focus on factors that influence feather-degrading bacterial communities. Within the hypothesis that parental care can be trade-off against the demands of self-maintenance, we show that a brood size manipulation modifies the structure of feather-degrading bacterial communities and the density of free- living bacteria. Thus we have pointed out a potentially poorly known cost of reproduction. In the same context of a trade-off between reproductive activities and individual self-maintenance, chapter 3 shows that at a proximate level in females but not in males, the individual variation in time and/or energy allocated in reproductive activities is associated with prolactin hormone levels. Our study provides evidence for the existence of a sex related difference in the relationship between brood size and prolactin levels. Birds have evolved sanitation behaviours and preen gland secretions to preserve the condition of their plumage. In chapter 4, we describe a method that allows to measure preen gland in situ. Then we use this method to characterize a number of phenotypic and ecological factors that explain variation in preen gland size in free-living individuals. In parent-offspring interactions, parents use offspring signals to provision their brood. In chapter 5, we demonstrate that nestling flanges and body skin reflect in the ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths ant that parents use this UV reflectance in food allocation decisions. Résumé Certains comportements et structures chez les animaux agissent, pour ceux qui les émettent, comme des signaux permettant d'augmenter leur fitness en altérant les comportements de ceux qui les perçoivent. Une grande partie des études sur la sélection sexuelle s'est focalisée sur les ornements mâles. Ces études ont démontré que ces ornements pouvaient signaler la qualité de celui qui les porte et influencer le choix des femelles. Bien que les femelles puissent aussi présenter des traits voyants, les études sur leurs ornements font défaut. Dans le chapitre 1 de ce travail, nous montrons que les étourneaux femelles sont plus voyantes que les mâles sur la base de la blancheur de la poitrine. De plus la blancheur des femelles peut signaler leur condition au début de la saison de reproduction et ainsi être corrélée avec leur fitness. Nous mettons aussi en évidence que la densité et l'abrasion des plumes sont des facteurs importants, contrôlant l'expression de la blancheur de la poitrine. Ceci suggère que des études futures pourraient examiner le rôle des facteurs environnementaux et physiologiques qui influencent la condition des plumes pour mieux comprendre l'évolution de la blancheur chez les étourneaux. Le plumage subit des dommages à travers l'abrasion et probablement aussi par l'activité de dégradation de bactéries. Dans le chapitre 2 de ce travail, nous nous intéressons aux facteurs qui influencent les communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes. Nous basant sur l'hypothèse selon laquelle il existe un compromis entre les soins parentaux et la maintenance corporelle, nous montrons qu'une manipulation de la taille de nichée modifie la structure des communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes ainsi que les densités de bactéries libres présentes sur le plumage. Ainsi nous mettons en évidence un coût encore peu connu des activités de reproduction. Dans le même contexte, nous montrons, dans le chapitre 3, que des variations individuelles dans l'énergie et/ou le temps alloué dans les activités de reproduction sont associés, chez les femelles, à un niveau proximal à l'hormone prolactine. Cette relation n'est pas présente chez les mâles. Cette étude montre que la relation entre la taille de nichée et les niveaux de prolactine diffère avec le sexe des individus. Les oiseaux utilisent des comportements de nettoyage associés aux sécrétions de la glande uropygiale afin de préserver la condition de leurs plumes. Dans le chapitre 4 de ce travail, nous décrivons une méthode qui permet de mesurer la taille de la glande in situ. Puis nous caractérisons certains facteurs écologiques et physiologiques qui expliquent les variations de la taille de la glande chez des individus capturés dans leur environnement. Les parents nourrissent leur progéniture en réponse à des signaux émis par ceux-ci. Dans le chapitre 5 de ce travail, nous démontrons que les commissures et la peau sur le corps des oisillons reflètent la lumière dans l'ultraviolet. Nous montrons que les parents utilisent cette réflexion dans l'ultraviolet lors de l'allocation de nourriture pour leurs jeunes.

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PURPOSE: To assess how different diagnostic decision aids perform in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and harm. METHODS: Four diagnostic decision aids were compared, as applied to a simulated patient population: a findings-based algorithm following a linear or branched pathway, a serial threshold-based strategy, and a parallel threshold-based strategy. Headache in immune-compromised HIV patients in a developing country was used as an example. Diagnoses included cryptococcal meningitis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, tuberculous meningitis, bacterial meningitis, and malaria. Data were derived from literature and expert opinion. Diagnostic strategies' validity was assessed in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and harm related to mortality and morbidity. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation were performed. RESULTS: The parallel threshold-based approach led to a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 65%. Sensitivities of the serial threshold-based approach and the branched and linear algorithms were 47%, 47%, and 74%, respectively, and the specificities were 85%, 95%, and 96%. The parallel threshold-based approach resulted in the least harm, with the serial threshold-based approach, the branched algorithm, and the linear algorithm being associated with 1.56-, 1.44-, and 1.17-times higher harm, respectively. Findings were corroborated by sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses. CONCLUSION: A threshold-based diagnostic approach is designed to find the optimal trade-off that minimizes expected harm, enhancing sensitivity and lowering specificity when appropriate, as in the given example of a symptom pointing to several life-threatening diseases. Findings-based algorithms, in contrast, solely consider clinical observations. A parallel workup, as opposed to a serial workup, additionally allows for all potential diseases to be reviewed, further reducing false negatives. The parallel threshold-based approach might, however, not be as good in other disease settings.

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Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

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Ectoparasites are a ubiquitous environmental component of breeding birds, and it has repeatedly been shown that hematophagous ectoparasites such as fleas and mites reduce the quality and number of offspring of bird hosts, thereby lowering the value of a current brood. Selection acting on the hosts will favor physiological and behavioral responses that will reduce the parasites' impact. However, the results of the few bird studies that addressed the question of whether parasitism leads to a higher rate of food provisioning are equivocal, and the begging response to infestation has rarely been quantified. A change in begging activity and parental rate of food provisioning could be predicted in either direction: parents could reduce their investment in the brood in order to invest more in future broods, or they could increase their investment in order to compensate for the parasites' effect on the current brood. Since the nestlings are weakened by the ectoparasites they may beg less, but on the other hand they may beg more in order to obtain more food. In this study we show experimentally that (1) hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) reduce the body mass and size of great tit (Parus major) nestlings, (2) nestlings of parasitized broods more than double their begging rate, (3) the male parents increase the frequency of feeding trips by over 50%, (4) the females do not adjust feeding rate to the lowered nutritional state of nestlings, and (5) food competition among siblings of parasitized broods is increased. Ultimately the difference in the parental feeding response may be understood as the result of a sex-related difference in the trade-off of investing in current versus future broods.

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The stable co-existence of two haploid genotypes or two species is studied in a spatially heterogeneous environment submitted to a mixture of soft selection (within-patch regulation) and hard selection (outside-patch regulation) and where two kinds of resource are available. This is analysed both at an ecological time-scale (short term) and at an evolutionary time-scale (long term). At an ecological scale, we show that co-existence is very unlikely if the two competitors are symmetrical specialists exploiting different resources. In this case, the most favourable conditions are met when the two resources are equally available, a situation that should favour generalists at an evolutionary scale. Alternatively, low within-patch density dependence (soft selection) enhances the co-existence between two slightly different specialists of the most available resource. This results from the opposing forces that are acting in hard and soft regulation modes. In the case of unbalanced accessibility to the two resources, hard selection favours the most specialized genotype, whereas soft selection strongly favours the less specialized one. Our results suggest that competition for different resources may be difficult to demonstrate in the wild even when it is a key factor in the maintenance of adaptive diversity. At an evolutionary scale, a monomorphic invasive evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) always exists. When a linear trade-off exists between survival in one habitat versus that in another, this ESS lies between an absolute adjustment of survival to niche size (for mainly soft-regulated populations) and absolute survival (specialization) in a single niche (for mainly hard-regulated populations). This suggests that environments in agreement with the assumptions of such models should lead to an absence of adaptive variation in the long term.

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In species with parental care, siblings compete for access to food resources. Typically, they vocally signal their level of need to each other and to parents, and jostle for the position in the nest where parents deliver food. Although food shortage and social interactions are stressful, little is known about the effect of stress on the way siblings resolve the conflict over how food is shared among them. Because glucocorticoid hormones mediate physiological and behavioral responses to stressors, we tested whether corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, modulates physical and vocal signaling used by barn owl siblings (Tyto alba) to compete for food. Although corticosterone-implanted (cort-) nestlings and placebo-nestlings were similarly successful to monopolize food, they employed different behavioral strategies. Compared to placebo-nestlings, cort-individuals reduced the rate of vocally communicating with their siblings (but not with their parents) but were positioned closer to the nest-box entrance where parents predictably deliver food. Therefore, corticosterone induced nestlings to increase their effort in physical competition for the best nest position at the expense of investment in sib-sib communication without modifying vocal begging signals directed to parents. This suggests that in the barn owl stress alters nestlings' behavior and corticosterone could mediate the trade-off between scramble competition and vocal sib-sib communication. We conclude that stressful environments may prevent the evolution of sib-sib communication as a way to resolve family conflicts peacefully.

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A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole georadar data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a time-domain waveform inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity in both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little-to-no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.