Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries.

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing primary PCI. The purpose of this analysis was not to decide which patients should undergo PCI, but to predict clinical outcomes in this population. METHODS: The SXscore was determined in a consecutive series of 114 elderly patients (mean age, 79.6 ± 4.1 years) undergoing primary PCI for ACS. Outcomes were stratified according to SXscore tertiles: SXLOW ≤15 (n = 39), 15< SXMID <23 (n = 40), and SXHIGH ≥23 (n = 35). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Secondary endpoints were nonfatal major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days, and 1-year outcomes in patients discharged alive. RESULTS: Mortality at 30 days was higher in the SXHIGH group compared with the aggregate SXLOW+MID group (37.1% vs 5.1%; P<.0001), and in the CSSHIGH group compared with the aggregate CSSLOW+MID group (25.5% vs 1.4%; P=.0001). MACCE rates at 30 days were similar among SXscore tertiles. The CSS predicted 1-year MACCE rates (12.1% for CSSHIGH vs 3.1% for CSSLOW+MID; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore predicts 30-day mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing primary PCI. In patients discharged alive, the CSS predicts risk of MACCE at 1 year.

Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS.¦METHODS: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization.¦RESULTS: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS.¦CONCLUSIONS: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Une méthode simplifiée de mesure du volume atrial gauche sur les scanners de score calcique. Cardiovasculaire diagnostique et interventionnel. Séance Cardiovasculaire diagnostique et interventionnel. Séance ''L21 - Imagerie cardiaque non invasive''

Objectifs : Evaluer une méthode simple et rapide de mesure du volume atrial gauche. Matériels et méthodes : Cinquante patients ont été examinés avec un CT gaté pour mesure du score calcique. Trois méthodes ont été utilisées pour calculer le volume atrial gauche : 1) une méthode orthogonale avec mesure des surfaces/diamètres dans les plans axiaux/coronaux/sagittaux, 2) une méthode biplan inspirée de l'échocardiographie et 3) une méthode volumétrique. Les mesures ont été faites par le même observateur un mois plus tard et ont été répétées par trois autres observateurs. L'axe cardiaque a aussi été mesuré. La méthode Bland-Altmann et les corrélations de Spearman ont été utilisées. Résultats : La méthode volumétrique montre les variations intra/interobservateur les plus basses avec une variabilité de 6,1/7,4 ml, respectivement. Pour les mesures avec la méthode orthogonale (surfaces/diamètres), les variations intra/interobservateur sont 12,3/13,5 ml et 14,6/11,6 ml, respectivement. Pour la méthode biplan, les variations intra/interobservateur sont plus hautes : 23,9/19,8 ml. Comparée à la méthode de référence volumétrique, la méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces est mieux corrélée (R=0,959, p<0,001) que les autres méthodes. Il y a une faible influence de l'axe du coeur sur la méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces. Conclusion : La méthode volumétrique est le gold standard en terme de variabilité. Cependant elle est longue à metttre en oeuvre. La méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces est une alternative simple, sauf chez les patients obèses avec un coeur horizontalisé.

Comparing Bone Microarchitecture by Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) in Caucasian American Women with and Without Osteoporotic Fractures.

Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.

Cross-cultural adaptations of the Oxford-12 HIP score to the French speaking population.

BACKGROUND: An objective measurement of surgical procedures outcomes is inherent to professional practices quality control; this especially applies in orthopaedics to joint replacement outcomes. A self-administered questionnaire offers an attractive alternative to surgeon's judgement but is infrequently used in France for these purposes. The British questionnaire, the 12-item Oxford Hip Score (OHS) was selected for this study because of its ease of use. HYPOTHESIS: The objective of this study was to validate the French translation of the self-assessment 12-item Oxford Hip Score and compare its results with those of the reference functional scores: the Harris Hip Score (HHS) and the Postel-Merle d'Aubigné (PMA) score. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on a clinical series of 242 patients who were candidates for total hip arthroplasty, the French translation of this questionnaire was validated. Its coherence was also validated by comparing the preoperative data with the data obtained from the two other reference clinical scores. RESULTS: The translation was validated using the forward-backward translation procedure from French to English, with correction of all differences or mistranslations after systematized comparison with the original questionnaire in English. The mean overall OHS score was 43.8 points (range, 22-60 points) with similarly good distribution of the overall value of the three scores compared. The correlation was excellent between the OHS and the HHS, but an identical correlation between the OHS and the PMA was only obtained for the association of the pain and function parameters, after excluding the mobility criterion, relatively over-represented in the PMA score. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Subjective questionnaires that contribute a personal appreciation of the results of arthroplasty by the patient can easily be applied on a large scale. This study made a translated and validated version of an internationally recognized, reliable self-assessment score available to French orthopaedic surgeons. The results obtained encourage us to use this questionnaire as a complement to the classical evaluation scores and methods.

ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Pédiatrie. 3. Le score de McIsaac: une aide à l'indication des tests de diagnostic rapide dans tes angines à streptocoques A [Pediatrics. Using the McIsaac score for the indication of rapid diagnostic testing in children with streptococcal pharyngitis].

The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

Trabecular bone score: a noninvasive analytical method based upon the DXA image.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment.

TBS (trabecular bone score) and diabetes-related fracture risk.

CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but paradoxically greater bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) is derived from the texture of the spine dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image and is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk, providing information independent of BMD. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of lumbar spine TBS to account for increased fracture risk in diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a retrospective cohort study using BMD results from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Patients: We included 29,407 women 50 years old and older with baseline DXA examinations, among whom 2356 had diagnosed diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Health service records were assessed for incident nontraumatic major osteoporotic fractures (mean follow-up 4.7 years). RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with higher BMD at all sites but lower lumbar spine TBS in unadjusted and adjusted models (all P < .001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a measurement in the lowest vs the highest tertile was less than 1 for BMD (all P < .001) but was increased for lumbar spine TBS [aOR 2.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.30-2.97]. Major osteoporotic fractures were identified in 175 women (7.4%) with and 1493 (5.5%) without diabetes (P < .001). Lumbar spine TBS was a BMD-independent predictor of fracture and predicted fractures in those with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46) and without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38). The effect of diabetes on fracture was reduced when lumbar spine TBS was added to a prediction model but was paradoxically increased from adding BMD measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures in those with diabetes, and captures a larger portion of the diabetes-associated fracture risk than BMD.