Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Tracing of the Rhône River, wastewater, and mixing within Lake Geneva : stable isotope compositions of water and dissolved inorganic carbon

This study presents an evaluation of the stable isotopic composition of water (hydrogen and oxygen) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of Lake Geneva, a deep, peri-alpine lake situated at the border between Switzerland and France. The research goal is to apply vertical and seasonal variations of the isotope compositions to evaluate mixing processes of pollutants, nutrients and oxygen. Depth profiles were sampled at different locations throughout Lake Geneva on a monthly and seasonal basis over the course of three years (2009-2011). The results of the oxygen isotopic composition indicate a Rhône River interflow, which can be traced for about 55 km throughout the lake during summer. The Rhône River interflow is 7 to 15 m thick and the molar fraction of Rhône water is estimated to amount up to 37 %. Calculated density of the water and measured isotopic compositions demonstrate that the interflow depth changes in conjunction with the density gradient in the water column during fall. Partial pressure of CO2 indicates that the epilimnion is taking up CO2 from the atmosphere between spring and fall. The epilimnion is most enriched in 13CDIC in September and a progressive depletion of 13CDIC can be observed in the metalimnion from spring to late fall. This stratification is dependent on the local density stratification and the results demonstrate that parameters, which are indicating photosynthesis, are not necessarily linked to δ13CDIC values. In addition, the amount of primary production shows a strong discrepancy between summer 2009 and 2010, but δ13CDIC values of the epilimnion and metalimnion do not indicate variations. In the hypolimnion of the deep lake δ13CDIC values are constant and the progressive depletion allows tracing remineralization processes. The combination of stable carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions allows furthermore tracing Rhône River water fractions, as well as wastewater, stormwater and anthropogenic induced carbon in the water column of the shallow Bay of Vidy. In combination with the results of measured micropollutants, the study underlines that concentrations of certain substances may be related to the Rhône River interflow and/or remineralization of particulate organic carbon. Water quality monitoring and research should therefore be extended to the metalimnion as well as sediment water interface.

Evolution and sedimentology of a channel fill in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River and its comparison to the deposits of an adjacent compound bar

The depositional stratigraphy of within-channel deposits in sandy braided rivers is dominated by a variety of barforms (both singular `unit' bars and complex `compound' bars), as well as the infill of individual channels (herein termed `channel fills'). The deposits of bars and channel fills define the key components of facies models for braided rivers and their within-channel heterogeneity, knowledge of which is important for reservoir characterization. However, few studies have sought to address the question of whether the deposits of bars and channel fills can be readily differentiated from each other. This paper presents the first quantitative study to achieve this aim, using aerial images of an evolving modern sandy braided river and geophysical imaging of its subsurface deposits. Aerial photographs taken between 2000 and 2004 document the abandonment and fill of a 1 3 km long, 80 m wide anabranch channel in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. Upstream river regulation traps the majority of very fine sediment and there is little clay (<1%) in the bed sediments. Channel abandonment was initiated by a series of unit bars that stalled and progressively blocked the anabranch entrance, together with dune deposition and stacking at the anabranch entrance and exit. Complete channel abandonment and subsequent fill of up to 3 m of sediment took approximately two years. Thirteen kilometres of ground-penetrating radar surveys, coupled with 18 cores, were obtained over the channel fill and an adjacent 750 m long, 400 m wide, compound bar, enabling a quantitative analysis of the channel and bar deposits. Results show that, in terms of grain-size trends, facies proportions and scale of deposits, there are only subtle differences between the channel fill and bar deposits which, therefore, renders them indistinguishable. Thus, it may be inappropriate to assign different geometric and sedimentological attributes to channel fill and bar facies in object-based models of sandy braided river alluvial architecture.