Prognostication of Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Severe Infections.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to confirm the prognostic value of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) in patients with severe infections requiring ICU management and to develop and validate a model to enhance mortality prediction by combining severity scores with biomarkers. METHODS: We enrolled prospectively patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in mixed tertiary ICUs in Switzerland (derivation cohort) and Brazil (validation cohort). Severity scores (APACHE [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation] II or Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II) were combined with biomarkers obtained at the time of diagnosis of sepsis, including C-reactive-protein, procalcitonin (PCT), and PSP. Logistic regression models with the lowest prediction errors were selected to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Mortality rates of patients with septic shock enrolled in the derivation cohort (103 out of 158) and the validation cohort (53 out of 91) were 37% and 57%, respectively. APACHE II and PSP were significantly higher in dying patients. In the derivation cohort, the models combining either APACHE II, PCT, and PSP (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.721; 95% CI, 0.632-0.812) or SAPS II, PCT, and PSP (AUC, 0.710; 95% CI, 0.617-0.802) performed better than each individual biomarker (AUC PCT, 0.534; 95% CI, 0.433-0.636; AUC PSP, 0.665; 95% CI, 0.572-0.758) or severity score (AUC APACHE II, 0.638; 95% CI, 0.543-0.733; AUC SAPS II, 0.598; 95% CI, 0.499-0.698). These models were externally confirmed in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the prognostic value of PSP in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock requiring ICU management. A model combining severity scores with PCT and PSP improves mortality prediction in these patients.

Temporal Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Road Accidents in Young Swiss Men: Seasonal, Weekday and Public Holiday Effects.

AIMS: To assess seasonal, weekday, and public holiday effects on alcohol-related road accidents and drinking diaries among young Swiss men. METHODS: Federal road accident data (35,485 accidents) from Switzerland and drinking diary data from a large cohort of young Swiss men (11,930 subjects) were analysed for temporal effects by calendar week, weekday and public holiday (Christmas, New Years, National Day). Alcohol-related accidents were analysed using rate ratios for observed versus expected numbers of accidents and proportions of alcohol-related accidents relative to the total number. Drinking diaries were analysed for the proportion of drinkers, median number of drinks consumed, and the 90th percentile's number of drinks consumed. RESULTS: Several parallel peaks were identified in alcohol-related accidents and drinking diaries. These included increases on Fridays and Saturdays, with Saturday drinking extending until early Sunday morning, an increase during the summer on workdays but not weekends, an increase at the end of the year, and increases on public holidays and the evening before. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest specific time-windows that are associated with increases in drinking and alcohol-related harm. Established prevention measures should be enforced during these time-windows to reduce associated peaks.

Angiotensin receptor blockers are not associated with reduced inflammatory markers in the general population.

OBJECTIVE: Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been suggested to reduce inflammation in randomized controlled trials. We assessed the association between ARBs and inflammatory markers in a general population setting. METHODS: This is a population-based prospective study conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland. Baseline data from 933 participants on antihypertensive drugs (424 on ARBs) was collected in 2003-2006. Follow-up data from 1120 participants (572 on ARBs) was collected in 2009-2012. C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukins 1β and 6 and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) were assessed and categorized in quartiles. RESULTS: At baseline, no differences were found between participants taking or not taking ARBs for all inflammatory markers studied, and this association persisted after multivariate adjustment: odds ratios (ORs) and (95% confidence interval) for being in the highest quartile of interleukin-1β, interleukin-6, TNF-α and CRP for participants on ARB compared to participants not on ARB were 1.23 (0.89-1.70), 1.26 (0.93-1.70), 1.14 (0.85-1.53) and 1.27 (0.96-1.69) respectively (P > 0.05). These findings were further replicated in the follow-up study: OR and (95% CI) of 1.10 (0.78-1.55), 0.87 (0.64-1.19), 0.83 (0.61-1.14) and 0.91 (0.68-1.22) for interleukin-1β, interleukin-6, TNF-α and CRP respectively (P > 0.05). Finally, no effect of ARBs was found when comparing participants who received ARBs throughout the 5.4-year follow-up with participants on other antihypertensive drugs: OR and (95% CI) of 0.93 (0.61-1.42), 0.80 (0.54-1.17), 0.86 (0.59-1.25) and 0.95 (0.67-1.35) for interleukin-1β, interleukin-6, TNF-α and CRP respectively (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: ARBs are not associated with reduced levels of inflammatory markers in the general population.