Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Obésité en Suisse: percentiles d'indice de masse corporelle (IMC) d'une population d'enfants et d'adolescents nés en 1980 à Lausanne et écart avec les normes suisses (1955)

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to calculate the percentiles of BMI of a cohort of 1,203 children and adolescents, representing the 95% of the pupils of the school, born in 1980 followed longitudinally between 5 and 16 years. We compare these percentiles with those of the first swiss study, calculated on a cohort born in 1954-1956. METHODS: The percentiles were calculated with the method of Cole, on the basis of weight and height measured during the controls by the school health service, at a non-periodic mean interval of 14 months. RESULTS: The gap between the BMI percentiles of the two cohorts is near zero for the third percentiles, weak but progressively growing with age up to two units of BMI for the 50th percentiles. For the percentiles 97 the difference, straight away present at five years, grows regularly up to 11 years, and remains thereafter for the girls at 4.3 units of BMI, while growing more up to 6.8 units of BMI at 15 years for the boys. The percentages of children and adolescents of the present study with overweight, in accordance with the thresholds of Cole, constant for the girls at 14%, increase for the five to 11.5 years old boys from 13.4% to 17.6% for the 11.5 to 16 years old. The percentage of obesity is 2.7% for the girls, and increase for the same categories for the boys from a percentage of 1.7% to 2.3% for the boys. CONCLUSIONS: The changes during this quarter of century are important, especially for the boys. We can postulate thereafter a very early change in the energy balance. A chronic increase of the food supply, linked or not with a decrease of the physical activity, would be an explanation.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome: the expanding clinical and genetic spectrum of a treatable disorder.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is caused by mutations in the SLC2A1 gene in the majority of patients and results in impaired glucose transport into the brain. From 2004-2008, 132 requests for mutational analysis of the SLC2A1 gene were studied by automated Sanger sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Mutations in the SLC2A1 gene were detected in 54 patients (41%) and subsequently in three clinically affected family members. In these 57 patients we identified 49 different mutations, including six multiple exon deletions, six known mutations and 37 novel mutations (13 missense, five nonsense, 13 frame shift, four splice site and two translation initiation mutations). Clinical data were retrospectively collected from referring physicians by means of a questionnaire. Three different phenotypes were recognized: (i) the classical phenotype (84%), subdivided into early-onset (<2 years) (65%) and late-onset (18%); (ii) a non-classical phenotype, with mental retardation and movement disorder, without epilepsy (15%); and (iii) one adult case of glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome with minimal symptoms. Recognizing glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome is important, since a ketogenic diet was effective in most of the patients with epilepsy (86%) and also reduced movement disorders in 48% of the patients with a classical phenotype and 71% of the patients with a non-classical phenotype. The average delay in diagnosing classical glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome was 6.6 years (range 1 month-16 years). Cerebrospinal fluid glucose was below 2.5 mmol/l (range 0.9-2.4 mmol/l) in all patients and cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was below 0.50 in all but one patient (range 0.19-0.52). Cerebrospinal fluid lactate was low to normal in all patients. Our relatively large series of 57 patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome allowed us to identify correlations between genotype, phenotype and biochemical data. Type of mutation was related to the severity of mental retardation and the presence of complex movement disorders. Cerebrospinal fluid : blood glucose ratio was related to type of mutation and phenotype. In conclusion, a substantial number of the patients with glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome do not have epilepsy. Our study demonstrates that a lumbar puncture provides the diagnostic clue to glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome and can thereby dramatically reduce diagnostic delay to allow early start of the ketogenic diet.

Ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation and methylation-induced gene silencing cooperate in the inactivation of the INK4/ARF locus in Burkitt lymphoma cell lines.

Burkitt lymphoma is one of the most aggressive tumors affecting humans. Together with the characteristic chromosomal translocation that constitutively activates the c-Myc oncogene, alterations in cellular tumor suppressor pathways are additionally required in order to allow the cells to overcome anti-oncogenic barriers and proliferate in an uncontrolled manner. The INK4a/ARF locus on chromosome 9p21 is considered a safeguard locus since it encodes the two important tumor suppressor proteins, p14 (ARF) and p16 (INK4a) . By regulating the p53 and Rb pathways p14 (ARF) and p16 (INK4a) respectively act as pro-apoptotic and cell cycle inhibitor proteins. The importance of the INK4a/ARF locus has been well documented in several human tumors as well as in Burkitt lymphoma. Although the mechanisms responsible for the transcriptional regulation of the INK4a/ARF locus have been thoroughly characterized, less is known about its posttranscriptional control. In this study we found that p16 (INK4a) and p14 (Arf) are concurrently inactivated in a panel of BL cell lines. We demonstrate that along with the epigenetic silencing of the p16INK4a gene, the complete inactivation of the locus is achieved by the improper turnover of INK4/ARF proteins by the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS), as the proteasome inhibitor MG-132 blocks p14 (ARF) degradation and induces a dramatic stabilization of the p16 (INK4a ) protein. We establish that the simultaneous deregulation of both DNA methylation patterns and the ubiquitin-dependent proteolysis system is required to completely inactive the INK4/ARF locus, opening new prospects for the understanding and treatment of Burkitt lymphoma.

Detection of active oxalate-carbonate pathway ecosystems in the Amazon Basin: Global implications of a natural potential C sink

The oxalate-carbonate pathway (OCP) is a biogeochemical process, which has been described in Milicia excelsa tree ecosystems of Africa. This pathway involves biological and geological parameters at different scales: oxalate, as a by-product of photosynthesis, is oxidized by oxalotrophic bacteria leading to a local pH increase, and eventually to carbonate accumulation through time in previously acidic and carbonate-free tropical soils. Former studies have shown that this pedogenic process can potentially lead to the formation of an atmospheric carbon sink. Considering that 80% of plant species are known to produce oxalate, it is reasonable to assume that M. excelsa is not the only tree that can support OCP ecosystems. The search for similar conditions on another continent led us to South America, in an Amazon forest ecosystem (Alto Beni, Bolivia). This area was chosen because of the absence of local inherited carbonate in the bedrock, as well as its expected acidic soil conditions. Eleven tree species and associated soils were tested positive for the presence of carbonate with a more alkaline soil pH close to the tree than at a distance from it. A detailed study of Pentaplaris davidsmithii and Ceiba speciosa trees showed that oxalotrophy impacted soil pH in a similar way to at African sites (at least with 1 pH unit increasing). African and South American sites display similar characteristics regarding the mineralogical assemblage associated with the OCP, except for the absence of weddellite. The amount of carbonate accumulated is 3 to 4 times lower than the values measured in African sites related to M. excelsa ecosystems. Still, these secondary carbonates remain critical for the continental carbon cycle, as they are unexpected in the acidic context of Amazonian soils. Therefore, the present study demonstrates the existence of an active OCP in South America. The three critical components of an operating OCP are the presence of: i) local alkalinization, ii) carbonate accumulations, and iii) oxalotrophic bacteria, which were identified associated to the oxalogenic tree C. speciosa. If the question of a potential carbon sink related to oxalotrophic-oxalogenic ecosystems in the Amazon Basin is still pending, this study highlights the implication of OCP ecosystems on carbon and calcium biogeochemical coupled cycles. As previously mentioned for M. excelsa tree ecosystems in Africa, carbonate accumulations observed in the Bolivian tropical forest could be extrapolated to part or the whole Amazon Basin and might constitute an important reservoir that must be taken into account in the global carbon balance of the Tropics.

Lebenslauf und Regulation in Paarbeziehungen: Bestimmungsgründe der Ungleichheit familiarer Arbeitsteilung

On the basis of a recent survey of couples living together in Switzerland, classical and less classical explanatory factors of the un-equal division of family labour between the partners are explored. Resource-theoretical aspects are only modestly confirmed where-as the family cycle emerges as a strong con-dition that develops its effects concerning feminisation or equal distribution of family labour mainly through the female partner's occupational activity. An institutionalist ap-proach is proposed, based on the concept of sex-typed complementary master-statuses.

A morphological grading of spinal stenosis: a radiological study on LSS and LBP patients : P173

Introduction: Clinical symptoms and degree of spinal stenosis based on cross sectional dural sac area correlate only weakly in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) patients. We conceived a four grade classification system (A, B, C & D) based on the morphology of the dural sac and its contents as seen on T2 axial MRI images. The categories take into account the rootlet/CSF ratio. We applied this grading to three patient groups: LSS scheduled for surgery; LSS following conservative treatment and patients with low back pain (LBP) without leg pain. Materials/Methods: A total of 346 T2 axial MRI images taken from LSS and LBP patients were included in this retroperspective study. 37 patients had decompressive surgery (132 MRI images), 31 conservative treatment (116 MRI images) and 27 patients had unspecific LBP (98 MRI images). Dural sac cross-sectional surface area and morphological grading of the canal were measured digitally both at disc and pedicle level. Intra- and inter-observer reliability were assessed (weighted Cohen's kappa statistics) from 50 MRI images taken from the surgery group. Results: At the most severe disc level, grade A (mild stenosis) was found in 3% of MRI images of the surgical group as opposed to 51% in the conservatively treated group and 85% in the LBP group. Grade B occurred in 8% of the surgical, 20% of the conservative and was negligible in LBP group (below 1%). Grade C and D (severe stenosis) was found in 89% of the surgical group, as opposed to 30% in conservative group and 11% in LBP group. The grades of all groups were comparable at the pedicle levels, exhibiting in 94% a grade A with a maximum at the A1 grade. Pedicle and disc level cross-sectional area were smallest in the surgery group and smaller in the conservative group as compared to the LBP group at the levels L2, L3 and L4. According to cross-sectional area measurements patients from the surgery group seems to have smaller vertebral canal although this was not related to smaller stature. Validation of grading: Average intra-and inter observer kappas were 0.76 and 0.69 respectively, for physicians working in the study originating institution. Combining all observers the kappa values were 0.57 +/- 0.19. and 0.44 +/- 0.19 respectively. Dural sac cross-sectional area measurements showed no statistically significant differences between observers. Conclusion: Since no specific measurement tools are needed the grading suits everyday clinical practice and favours communication of degree of stenosis between practising physicians. In our institution Grade A stenosis was less likely to require surgical treatment. This grading can therefore be an aid in surgical patient selection in teaching units.

Cytostatic lung perfusion results in heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution: evaluation of different cytostatic lung perfusion techniques in a porcine model.

OBJECTIVES: Comparison of doxorubicin uptake, leakage and spatial regional blood flow, and drug distribution was made for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), as opposed to intravenous administration in a porcine model. METHODS: White pigs underwent single-pass lung perfusion with doxorubicin (320 mug/mL), labeled 99mTc-microspheres, and Indian ink. Visual assessment of the ink distribution and perfusion scintigraphy of the perfused lung was performed. 99mTc activity and doxorubicin levels were measured by gamma counting and high-performance liquid chromatography on 15 tissue samples from each perfused lung at predetermined localizations. RESULTS: Overall doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung was significantly higher (P = .001) and the plasma concentration was significantly lower (P < .0001) after all isolated lung perfusion techniques, compared with intravenous administration, without differences between them. Pulmonary artery infusion (blood flow occlusion) showed an equally high doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung but a higher systemic leakage than surgical isolated lung perfusion (P < .0001). The geometric coefficients of variation of the doxorubicin lung tissue levels were 175%, 279%, 226%, and 151% for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), respectively, compared with 51% for intravenous administration (P = .09). 99mTc activity measurements of the samples paralleled the doxorubicin level measurements, indicating a trend to a more heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution after isolated lung perfusion and blood flow occlusion compared with intravenous administration. CONCLUSIONS: Cytostatic lung perfusion results in a high overall doxorubicin uptake, which is, however, heterogeneously distributed within the perfused lung.

'Good-genes' and 'compatible-genes' effects in an Alpine whitefish and the information content of breeding tubercles over the course of the spawning season.

Some models of sexual selection predict that individuals vary in their genetic quality and reveal some of this variation in their secondary sexual characteristics. Alpine whitefish (Coregonus sp.) develop breeding tubercles shortly before their spawning season. These tubercles are epidermal structures that are distributed regularly along the body sides of both males and females. There is still much unexplained variation in the size of breeding tubercles within both sexes and with much overlap between the sexes. It has been suggested that breeding tubercles function to maintain body contact between the mating partners during spawning, act as weapons for defence of spawning territories, or are sexual signals that reveal aspects of genetic quality. We took two samples of whitefish from their spawning place, one at the beginning and one around the peak of spawning season. We found that females have on average smaller breeding tubercles than males, and that tubercle size partly reveals the stage of gonad maturation. Two independent full-factorial breeding experiments revealed that embryo mortality was significantly influenced by male and female effects. This finding demonstrates that the males differed in their genetic quality (because offspring get nothing but genes from their fathers). Tubercle size was negatively linked to some aspects of embryo mortality in the first breeding experiment but not significantly so in the second. This lack of consistency adds to inconsistent results that were reported before and suggests that (i) some aspects of genetic quality are not revealed in breeding tubercles while others are, or (ii) individuals vary in their signaling strategies and the information content of breeding tubercles is not always reliable. Moreover, the fact that female whitefish have breeding tubercles of significant size while males seem to have few reasons to be choosy suggests that the tubercles might also serve some functions that are not linked to sexual signaling.

Simultaneous biliary drainage and portal vein embolization before extended hepatectomy for hilar cholangiocarcinoma: preliminary experience.

BACKGROUND: Patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma often present obstructive jaundice and a small future remnant liver (FRL) ratio. A sequential approach comprising preoperative biliary drainage followed by portal vein embolization (PVE) is usually performed but leads to long preoperative management (6-12 weeks) before patients can undergo resection. To simplify and shorten this phase of liver preparation, we developed a new preoperative approach that involves percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE during the same procedure. We report the outcomes of this combined procedure. METHODS: During 1 year, four patients underwent simultaneous biliary drainage and PVE followed 1 month later by surgical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Liver volumes were assessed by CT before, and 1, and 3 months after the combined procedure. Serum liver enzymes were assessed before and 1 month after the combined procedure. RESULTS: The combined procedure was feasible in all cases, with no related complications. After the combined procedure, transaminases remained stable or decreased, whereas gamma-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alkaline phosphatase, and bilirubin decreased. During the first month, the left lobe volume increased by +27.9 % (range 19-40.9 %). The FRL ratio increased from 24.9 to 33.2 %. All patients underwent R0 liver resection with a favorable postoperative outcome. The remnant liver volume increased by +132 % (range 78-245 %) between 1 and 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE is feasible. This all-in-one preoperative approach greatly decreases waiting time until surgical resection. These encouraging results warrant further investigation to confirm the safety and to evaluate the reduction in the dropout rate for liver resection in this tumor with poor prognosis.