Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma: the impact of preneoplastic lesion pattern on survival.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is associated with a very poor prognosis, characterized with a 5-year survival rate of only 5%. Surgery is the only curative treatment for selected patients. Nevertheless, recurrence is very frequent. Identifying prognostic factors is thus warranted. Like numerous other tumors, adenocarcinomas are preceded by preneoplastic lesions. The role and the impact of these lesions remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the impact of the preneoplastic lesion pattern and histo-morphological features, on survival after pancreatic resection. Thirty-five patients who underwent pancreatic resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma were identified from a prospective database of a single center, between 2003 and 2008. We considered demographics, tumor characteristics and type of treatment. The major outcome was survival. Analyzes were separated into two groups, according to the preneoplastic lesions: Pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-related carcinomas and intracanalar papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN)-related carcinomas. The former were more frequent, accounting for 63% (22/35). Moreover, they displayed more aggressive features, with a higher tumor stage (p = 0.01) and higher rate of positive lymph nodes (p = 0.019). Lymphatic (p = 0.009) and perinervous (p = 0.019) invasions were also more frequent. Survival was negatively influenced by PanIN preneoplastic lesions (p = 0.015), T3-4 tumor stage (p = 0.038), positive lymph nodes (p = 0.044), lymphatic (p = 0.019) and vascular (p = 0.029) invasions. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma displays different behavior according to its preneoplastic lesion. Indeed, PanIN-related adenocarcinoma showed more aggressive features and lower survival rate. Preneoplastic lesions may represent predictive factors for survival. Their role and predictive value should be investigated more thoroughly.

Environmental influence on the phenotype of ant workers revealed by common garden experiment

Many organism traits vary along environmental gradients. Common garden experiments provide powerful means to disentangle the role of intrinsic factors, such as genetic or maternal effects, from extrinsic environmental factors in shaping phenotypic variation. Here, we investigate body size and lipid content variation in workers of the socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi along several independent elevation gradients in Switzerland. We compare field-collected workers and workers sampled as eggs from the same colonies but reared in common laboratory conditions. Overall, field-collected workers from high elevation are larger than those from low elevation, but the trend varies substantially among valleys. The same pattern is recovered when the eggs are reared in a common garden, which indicates that body size variation along elevation gradients and valleys is partly explained by genetic or maternal effects. However, both body size and lipid content exhibit significantly greater variation in field-collected workers than in laboratory-reared workers. Hence, much of the phenotypic variation results from a plastic response to the environment, rather than from genetic differences. Eggs from different elevations also show no significant difference in development time in the common garden. Overall, selection on individual worker phenotypes is unlikely to drive the altitudinal distribution of single- and multiple-queen colonies in this system, as phenotypic variation tends to be plastic and can be decoupled from social structure. This study provides insights into the interplay between individual phenotypic variation and social organization and how the two jointly respond to differing environmental conditions.

Attachment and coping in psychosis in relation to spiritual figures

Background: Studies have found higher levels of insecure attachment in individuals with schizophrenia. Attachment theory provides a framework necessary for conceptualizing the development of interpersonal functioning. Some aspects of the attachment of the believer to his/her spiritual figure are similar to those between the child and his/her parents. The correspondence hypothesis suggests that early child-parent interactions correspond to a person's relation to a spiritual figure. The compensation hypothesis suggests that an insecure attachment history would lead to a strong religiousness/spirituality as a compensation for the lack of felt security. The aim of this study is to explore attachment models in psychosis vs. healthy controls, the relationships between attachment and psychopathology and the attachment processes related to spiritual figures. Methods: Attachment models were measured in 30 patients with psychosis and 18 controls with the AAI (Adult Attachment interview) in relationship with psychopathology. Beliefs and practices related to a spiritual figure were investigated by qualitative and quantitative analyses. Results: Patients with psychosis showed a high prevalence of insecure avoidant attachment. Spiritual entities functioned like attachment figures in two thirds of cases. Interviews revealed the transformation of internal working models within relation to a spiritual figure: a compensation process was found in 7 of the 32 subjects who showed a significant attachment to a spiritual figure. Conclusions: Attachment theory allows us to highlight one of the underlying dimensions of spiritual coping in patients with psychosis.

Detecting Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes with Mixed Gambles

We propose a task for eliciting attitudes toward risk that is close to real-world risky decisions which typically involve gains and losses. The task consists of accepting or rejecting gambles that provide a gain with probability p and a loss with probability 1−p . We employ finite mixture models to uncover heterogeneity in risk preferences and find that (i) behavior is heterogeneous, with one half of the subjects behaving as expected utility maximizers, (ii) for the others, reference-dependent models perform better than those where subjects derive utility from final outcomes, (iii) models with sign-dependent decision weights perform better than those without, and (iv) there is no evidence for loss aversion. The procedure is sufficiently simple so that it can be easily used in field or lab experiments where risk elicitation is not the main experiment.

Latent Class Analysis of Gambling Activities in a Sample of Young Swiss Men : Association with Gambling Problems, Substance Use Outcomes, Personality Traits and Coping Strategies.

The study aimed to identify different patterns of gambling activities (PGAs) and to investigate how PGAs differed in gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. A representative sample of 4989 young Swiss males completed a questionnaire assessing seven distinct gambling activities, gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. PGAs were identified using latent class analysis (LCA). Differences between PGAs in gambling and substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies were tested. LCA identified six different PGAs. With regard to gambling and substance use outcomes, the three most problematic PGAs were extensive gamblers, followed by private gamblers, and electronic lottery and casino gamblers, respectively. By contrast, the three least detrimental PGAs were rare or non-gamblers, lottery only gamblers and casino gamblers. With regard to personality traits, compared with rare or non-gamblers, private and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sensation seeking. Electronic lottery and casino gamblers, private gamblers and extensive gamblers had higher levels of aggression-hostility. Extensive and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sociability, whereas casino gamblers reported lower levels of anxiety-neuroticism. Extensive gamblers used more maladaptive and less adaptive coping strategies than other groups. Results suggest that gambling is not a homogeneous activity since different types of gamblers exist according to the PGA they are engaged in. Extensive gamblers, electronic and casino gamblers and private gamblers may have the most problematic PGAs. Personality traits and coping skills may predispose individuals to PGAs associated with more or less negative outcomes.

Barn owl feathers as biomonitors of mercury: sources of variation in sampling procedures.

Given their central role in mercury (Hg) excretion and suitability as reservoirs, bird feathers are useful Hg biomonitors. Nevertheless, the interpretation of Hg concentrations is still questioned as a result of a poor knowledge of feather physiology and mechanisms affecting Hg deposition. Given the constraints of feather availability to ecotoxicological studies, we tested the effect of intra-individual differences in Hg concentrations according to feather type (body vs. flight feathers), position in the wing and size (mass and length) in order to understand how these factors could affect Hg estimates. We measured Hg concentration of 154 feathers from 28 un-moulted barn owls (Tyto alba), collected dead on roadsides. Median Hg concentration was 0.45 (0.076-4.5) mg kg(-1) in body feathers, 0.44 (0.040-4.9) mg kg(-1) in primary and 0.60 (0.042-4.7) mg kg(-1) in secondary feathers, and we found a poor effect of feather type on intra-individual Hg levels. We also found a negative effect of wing feather mass on Hg concentration but not of feather length and of its position in the wing. We hypothesize that differences in feather growth rate may be the main driver of between-feather differences in Hg concentrations, which can have implications in the interpretation of Hg concentrations in feathers. Finally, we recommend that, whenever possible, several feathers from the same individual should be analysed. The five innermost primaries have lowest mean deviations to both between-feather and intra-individual mean Hg concentration and thus should be selected under restrictive sampling scenarios.

How much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Protein and energy requirements in critically ill children are currently based on insufficient data. Moreover, longitudinal measurements of both total urinary nitrogen (TUN) and resting energy expenditure (REE) are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate how much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children on the basis of daily measurements of TUN, REE and protein and energy intakes. Comparisons were made with the guidelines of the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition and the Dietary Reference Intakes. METHODS: Children with an expected duration of mechanical ventilation ≥72 h were prospectively recruited. TUN was measured by chemiluminescence, and REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Generalised linear models for longitudinal data were used to study the relation between protein intake and nitrogen balance and to calculate the minimum intake of protein needed to achieve nitrogen equilibrium. A similar approach was used for energy. Results were compared to the recommended values. RESULTS: Based on 402 measurements performed in 74 children (median age: 21 months), the mean TUN was high at 0.20 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.22) g/kg/d and the REE was 55 (95% CI: 54, 57) kcal/kg/d. Nitrogen and energy balances were achieved with 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4, 1.6) g/kg/d of protein and 58 (95% CI: 53, 63) kcal/kg/d for the entire group, but there were differences among children of different ages. Children required more protein and less energy than the Dietary Reference Intakes. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill children, TUN was elevated and REE was reduced during the entire period of mechanical ventilation. Minimum intakes of 1.5 g/kg/d of protein and 58 kcal/kg/d can equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in children up to 4 years old. Older children require more protein.

How to report multiple outcome metrics in virtual reality simulation

Background Virtual reality (VR) simulation is increasingly used in surgical disciplines. Since VR simulators measure multiple outcomes, standardized reporting is needed. Methods We present an algorithm for combining multiple VR outcomes into dimension summary measures, which are then integrated into a meaningful total score. We reanalyzed the data of two VR studies applying the algorithm. Results The proposed algorithm was successfully applied to both VR studies. Conclusions The algorithm contributes to standardized and transparent reporting in VR-related research.

Trabecular bone score in kidney transplant recipients.

UNLABELLED: It is uncertain whether bone mineral density (BMD) can accurately predict fracture in kidney transplant recipients. Trabecular bone score (TBS) provides information independent of BMD. Kidney transplant recipients had abnormal bone texture as measured by lumbar spine TBS, and a lower TBS was associated with incident fractures in recipients. INTRODUCTION: Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a texture measure derived from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) lumbar spine images, providing information independent of bone mineral density. We assessed characteristics associated with TBS and fracture outcomes in kidney transplant recipients. METHODS: We included 327 kidney transplant recipients from Manitoba, Canada, who received a post-transplant DXA (median 106 days post-transplant). We matched each kidney transplant recipient (mean age 45 years, 39 % men) to three controls from the general population (matched on age, sex, and DXA date). Lumbar spine (L1-L4) DXA images were used to derive TBS. Non-traumatic incident fracture (excluding hand, foot, and craniofacial) (n = 31) was assessed during a mean follow-up of 6.6 years. We used multivariable linear regression models to test predictors of TBS, and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation decrease in TBS to express the gradient of risk. RESULTS: Compared to the general population, kidney transplant recipients had a significantly lower lumbar spine TBS (1.365 ± 0.129 versus 1.406 ± 0.125, P < 0.001). Multivariable linear regression revealed that receipt of a kidney transplant was associated with a significantly lower mean TBS compared to controls (-0.0369, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] -0.0537 to -0.0202). TBS was associated with fractures independent of the Fracture Risk Assessment score including BMD (adjusted HR per standard deviation decrease in TBS 1.64, 95 % CI 1.15-2.36). CONCLUSION: Kidney transplant recipients had abnormal bone texture as assessed by TBS and a lower lumbar spine TBS was associated with fractures in recipients.

Successful minimally invasive surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism: influence of preoperative imaging and intraoperative parathyroid hormone levels.

PURPOSE: Adenoma is the main parathyroid disorder leading to primary hyperparathyroidism (PHP). Minimally invasive parathyroidectomy (MIP) is recognized as a valid procedure for adenoma-related PHP. It requires precise preoperative localization combining Tc-99m-MIBI (methoxy-isobutyl-isonitrile) scintigraphy and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with x-ray computed tomography (CT) and intraoperative confirmation of successful excision by change in intact parathormone (iPTH) levels. The study aim was to assess the surgery success in relation to these two parameters. METHODS: All patients operated on for PHP from 2005 to mid-2014 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. MIP was performed in case of precise preoperative adenoma localization on scintigraphy, absence of past cervical surgery, and absence of concomitant thyroid resection necessity. In these patients, iPTH levels were monitored intraoperatively. Confirmation criteria for iPTH values were a return to normal level or a decrease >50 % of basal iPTH level. RESULTS: There were 197 PHP operations during the study period: 118 MIP and 79 bilateral neck explorations (BNEs). The MIP success rate was 95 % (112/118) with a preoperative MIBI scan ± CT accurate in 94 % (111/118) of the patients and with correct iPTH in 90 % (106/118) of the cases. Among the 12 iPTH levels that did not meet the confirmation criteria, 10 returned to normal range by postoperative day 2. Treatment failure appeared in three patients (one BNE, two MIPs). CONCLUSIONS: Tc-99m-MIBI dual-phase scintigraphy with SPECT/CT is the key examination for functional and morphological parathyroid adenoma localization. If preoperative scintigraphy is obvious and intraoperative assessment is clear, one could possibly safely omit iPTH, as it may lead to unnecessary BNE in primary PHP.

Imaging findings of bronchial atresia in fetuses, neonates and infants.

Congenital lung malformations are increasingly detected before birth. However, bronchial atresia is rarely identified in utero and not always recognized in neonates. There are two types of atresia: 1) proximal, located at the level of the mainstem or the proximal lobar bronchi, which is extremely rare and usually lethal during pregnancy, causing a tremendous volume increase of the distal involved lung with secondary hypoplasia of the normal lung, and 2) peripheral, located at the segmental/subsegmental bronchial level, which may present as an isolated lesion or as part of a complex congenital malformation. Prenatal findings are mostly nonspecific. Postnatal exams show overinflated lung areas and focal bronchial dilations. The typical fluid-filled bronchoceles are not always observed in neonates but develop progressively in the first months of life. This pictorial essay describes the spectrum of imaging findings of bronchial atresia in fetuses, neonates and infants.

Effects of continuous positive airway pressure treatment on coronary vasoreactivity measured by (82)Rb cardiac PET/CT in obstructive sleep apnea patients.

PURPOSE: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSA) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. We aimed at evaluating the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment on coronary endothelium-dependent vasoreactivity in OSA patients by quantifying myocardial blood flow (MBF) response to cold pressure testing (CPT). METHODS: In the morning after polysomnography (PSG), all participants underwent a dynamic (82)Rb cardiac positron emitting tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scan at rest, during CPT and adenosine stress. PSG and PET/CT were repeated at least 6 weeks after initiating CPAP treatment. OSA patients were compared to controls and according to response to CPAP. Patients' characteristics and PSG parameters were used to determine predictors of CPT-MBF. RESULTS: Thirty-two untreated OSA patients (age 58 ± 13 years, 27 men) and 9 controls (age 62 ± 5 years, 4 men) were enrolled. At baseline, compared to controls (apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) = 5.3 ± 2.6/h), untreated OSA patients (AHI = 48.6 ± 19.7/h) tend to have a lower CPT-MBF (1.1 ± 0.2 mL/min/g vs. 1.3 ± 0.4 mL/min/g, p = 0.09). After initiating CPAP, CPT-MBF was not different between well-treated patients (AHI <10/h) and controls (1.3 ± 0.3 mL/min/g vs. 1.3 ± 0.4 mL/min/g, p = 0.83), but it was lower for insufficiently treated patients (AHI ≥10/h) (0.9 ± 0.2 mL/min/g vs. 1.3 ± 0.4 mL/min/g, p = 0.0045). CPT-MBF was also higher in well-treated than in insufficiently treated patients (1.3 ± 0.3 mL/min/g vs. 0.9 ± 0.2 mL/min/g, p = 0.001). Mean nocturnal oxygen saturation (β = -0.55, p = 0.02) and BMI (β = -0.58, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of CPT-MBF in OSA patients. CONCLUSIONS: Coronary endothelial vasoreactivity is impaired in insufficiently treated OSA patients compared to well-treated patients and controls, confirming the need for CPAP optimization.