Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Role of microRNAs in the age-associated decline of pancreatic beta cell function in rat islets.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Ageing can lead to reduced insulin sensitivity and loss of pancreatic beta cell function, predisposing individuals to the development of diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of microRNAs (miRNAs) to age-associated beta cell dysfunction. METHODS: The global mRNA and miRNA profiles of 3- and 12-month-old rat islets were collected by microarray. The functional impact of age-associated differences in miRNA expression was investigated by mimicking the observed changes in primary beta cells from young animals. RESULTS: Beta cells from 12-month-old rats retained normal insulin content and secretion, but failed to proliferate in response to mitotic stimuli. The islets of these animals displayed modifications at the level of several miRNAs, including upregulation of miR-34a, miR-124a and miR-383, and downregulation of miR-130b and miR-181a. Computational analysis of the transcriptomic modifications observed in the islets of 12-month-old rats revealed that the differentially expressed genes were enriched for miR-34a and miR-181a targets. Indeed, the induction of miR-34a and reduction of miR-181a in the islets of young animals mimicked the impaired beta cell proliferation observed in old animals. mRNA coding for alpha-type platelet-derived growth factor receptor, which is critical for compensatory beta cell mass expansion, is directly inhibited by miR34a and is likely to be at least partly responsible for the effects of this miRNA. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Changes in the level of specific miRNAs that occur during ageing affect the proliferative capacity of beta cells. This might reduce their ability to expand under conditions of increased insulin demand, favouring the development of type 2 diabetes.

Incidence of outer retinal tubulation in ranibizumab-treated age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: To investigate the incidence of outer retinal tubulation (ORT) in ranibizumab-treated neovascular age-related macular degeneration patients. METHODS: We included 480 consecutive patients (546 eyes) with neovascular age-related macular degeneration, who were treated with variable-dosing intravitreal ranibizumab, evaluated with spectral domain optical coherence tomography, and followed-up for a minimum period of 6 months. Optical coherence tomographies were evaluated for the first appearance of ORT, precursor signs, and type of underlying lesion. Visual acuity was also recorded. RESULTS: Outer retinal tubulation was observed in 30% of eyes during a mean follow-up period of 26.7 months (SD, 13.5). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the ORT incidence (2.5, 17.5, 28.4, and 41.6% at baseline, after 1, 2, and 4 years, respectively) continuously increased, despite visually effective anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment. Outer retinal tubulation was associated with a poorer functional benefit. Lower baseline visual acuity was associated with a higher risk of developing ORT. CONCLUSION: Incidence of ORT continuously increases despite visually optimal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment of age-related macular degeneration. Outer retinal tubulation might be considered a prognostic factor for functional outcome and is relevant to avoid overtreatment.

Factors Influencing the Treatment Response of Pigment Epithelium Detachment in Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PURPOSE: To study the effect of various baseline factors, particularly the type of drug (ranibizumab vs aflibercept), on the functional and anatomic response of treatment-naïve pigment epithelial detachment (PED) associated with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (neovascular AMD), after 3 intravitreal injections. DESIGN: Retrospective consecutive case series. METHODS: This study included 102 patients (n = 115 eyes) with treatment-naïve neovascular AMD and PED (>150 μm), who were treated with either ranibizumab (n = 68 eyes) or aflibercept (n = 47 eyes). A multivariate analysis using stepwise linear regression was performed in order to assess factors influencing visual acuity improvement, as well as treatment response of PED height after 3 monthly injections. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that better visual improvement was associated with lower best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at baseline (P = .001), presence of subretinal fluid (P = .001), and retinal angiomatous proliferation (P = .001); PED reduction was associated with higher PED at baseline (P = .001), predominantly serous PED (P = .003), and the use of aflibercept (P = .022). Drug type was not associated with change in BCVA at 3 months. CONCLUSION: Eyes with neovascular AMD and PED showed significant functional and anatomic response after 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF injections. The functional response depended on baseline BCVA, presence of subretinal fluid, and retinal angiomatous proliferation, while anatomic response was influenced by baseline PED height, degree of vascularization, and drug type. Drug type was not associated with change in BCVA, but had a weak effect on anatomic response.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.

Normal values for pancreatic stone protein in different age groups.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) has been identified as a promising sepsis marker in adults, children and neonates. However, data on population-based reference values are lacking. This study aimed to establish age-specific reference values for PSP. METHODS: PSP was determined using a specific ELISA. PSP serum concentrations were determined in 372 healthy subjects including 217 neonates, 94 infants and children up to 16 years, and 61 adults. The adjacent categories method was used to determine which age categories had significantly different PSP concentrations. RESULTS: PSP circulating levels were not gender-dependent and ranged from 1.0 to 99.4 ng/ml with a median of 9.2 ng/ml. PSP increased significantly between the age categories, from a median of 2.6 ng/ml in very preterm newborns, to 6.3 ng/ml in term newborns, to 16.1 ng/ml in older children (p < 0.001). PSP levels were higher on postnatal day three compared to levels measured immediately post delivery (p < 0.001). Paired umbilical artery and umbilical vein samples were strongly correlated (p < 0.001). Simultaneously obtained capillary heel-prick versus venous samples showed a good level of agreement for PSP (Rho 0.89, bias 19 %). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides age-specific normal values that may be used to define cut-offs for future trials on PSP. We demonstrate an age-dependent increase of PSP from birth to childhood.

Delirium in the elderly: Current problems with increasing geriatric age.

Delirium is an acute disorder of attention and cognition seen relatively commonly in people aged 65 yr or older. The prevalence is estimated to be between 11 and 42 per cent for elderly patients on medical wards. The prevalence is also high in nursing homes and long term care (LTC) facilities. The consequences of delirium could be significant such as an increase in mortality in the hospital, long-term cognitive decline, loss of autonomy and increased risk to be institutionalized. Despite being a common condition, it remains under-recognised, poorly understood and not adequately managed. Advanced age and dementia are the most important risk factors. Pain, dehydration, infections, stroke and metabolic disturbances, and surgery are the most common triggering factors. Delirium is preventable in a large proportion of cases and therefore, it is also important from a public health perspective for interventions to reduce further complications and the substantial costs associated with these. Since the aetiology is, in most cases, multfactorial, it is important to consider a multi-component approach to management, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological. Detection and treatment of triggering causes must have high priority in case of delirium. The aim of this review is to highlight the importance of delirium in the elderly population, given the increasing numbers of ageing people as well as increasing geriatric age.

Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass in patients over the age of 60 years

The prevalence of obesity is increasing even in older patients. Bariatric surgery is often considered more risky in this group, and not necessarily associated with the same benefits as in younger patients. In France, guidelines recommend to assess indication for surgery based on comorbidities and physiological age.

CONVERSION TO AFLIBERCEPT THERAPY VERSUS CONTINUING WITH RANIBIZUMAB THERAPY FOR NEOVASCULAR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION DEPENDENT ON MONTHLY RANIBIZUMAB TREATMENT.

PURPOSE: To compare the effects of converting to aflibercept therapy with continuing ranibizumab therapy in eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration requiring monthly ranibizumab treatment. METHODS: Patients were selected from the 104 patients (115 eyes) already enrolled in an "Observe and Plan" prospective case series that included treating neovascular age-related macular degeneration with ranibizumab for 24 months. Patients who still needed monthly retreatment at the end of a 2-year study were randomized to either continue ranibizumab therapy or to convert to aflibercept therapy. Outcome measures included average interval between treatments, resolution of exudative signs, number of retreatments, and change in visual acuity over 12 months (the third treatment year). RESULTS: Nineteen patients (21 eyes) met the inclusion criteria. Ten eyes were randomized to receive aflibercept, and 11 eyes remained on ranibizumab. Groups were balanced for baseline characteristics. Outcomes were similar in the 2 groups over a 12-month study duration, with no statistical difference. CONCLUSION: This comparative pilot study suggests that neovascular age-related macular degeneration requiring monthly retreatment with ranibizumab may respond in similar ways to both ranibizumab and aflibercept treatment. Larger sample sizes would be needed to confirm this observation.