Marked association between obesity and glomerular hyperfiltration: a cross-sectional study in an African population.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and African American ethnicity are established independent risk factors for the development of chronic kidney disease. No data exist about the association between obesity and renal hemodynamics in the African region. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 301 nondiabetic participants (97 lean, 108 overweight, and 96 obese) of African descent with a positive family history of hypertension from the Seychelles islands. PREDICTOR: Body mass index (BMI). OUTCOMES: Glomerular hyperfiltration, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), effective renal plasma flow (ERPF), and filtration fraction. MEASUREMENTS: GFR and ERPF were measured using inulin and para-aminohippurate clearances, respectively. Participants' baseline demographics, laboratory data, and blood pressure were measured using standard techniques. RESULTS: The prevalence of glomerular hyperfiltration (defined as GFR >or=140 mL/min) increased across BMI categories (7.2%, 14.8%, and 27.1% for lean, overweight, and obese participants, respectively; P < 0.001). Higher BMI was associated with higher median GFR (99, 110, and 117 mL/min for lean, overweight, and obese participants, respectively; P < 0.001), ERPF (424, 462, and 477 mL/min, respectively; P = 0.01), and filtration fraction (0.23, 0.24, and 0.25; P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses adjusting for age, sex, blood pressure, fasting glucose level, and urinary sodium excretion and accounting for familial correlations confirmed the associations between high BMI (>25 kg/m(2)) and increased GFR, ERPF, and filtration fraction. No association between BMI categories and GFR was found with adjustment for body surface area. LIMITATIONS: Participants had a positive family history of hypertension. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obesity are associated with increased GFR, ERPF, and filtration fraction and a high prevalence of glomerular hyperfiltration in nondiabetic individuals of African descent. The absence of associations between BMI categories and GFR indexed for body surface area raises questions regarding the appropriateness of indexing GFR for body surface area in overweight populations.

Population-based genome-wide association studies reveal six loci influencing plasma levels of liver enzymes.

Plasma liver-enzyme tests are widely used in the clinic for the diagnosis of liver diseases and for monitoring the response to drug treatment. There is considerable evidence that human genetic variation influences plasma levels of liver enzymes. However, such genetic variation has not been systematically assessed. In the present study, we performed a genome-wide association study of plasma liver-enzyme levels in three populations (total n = 7715) with replication in three additional cohorts (total n = 4704). We identified two loci influencing plasma levels of alanine-aminotransferase (ALT) (CPN1-ERLIN1-CHUK on chromosome 10 and PNPLA3-SAMM50 on chromosome 22), one locus influencing gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels (HNF1A on chromosome 12), and three loci for alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels (ALPL on chromosome 1, GPLD1 on chromosome 6, and JMJD1C-REEP3 on chromosome 10). In addition, we confirmed the associations between the GGT1 locus and GGT levels and between the ABO locus and ALP levels. None of the ALP-associated SNPs were associated with other liver tests, suggesting intestine and/or bone specificity. The mechanisms underlying the associations may involve cis- or trans-transcriptional effects (some of the identified variants were associated with mRNA transcription in human liver or lymphoblastoid cells), dysfunction of the encoded proteins (caused by missense variations at the functional domains), or other unknown pathways. These findings may help in the interpretation of liver-enzyme tests and provide candidate genes for liver diseases of viral, metabolic, autoimmune, or toxic origin. The specific associations with ALP levels may point to genes for bone or intestinal diseases.

Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Canton of Vaud (Switzerland): A population-based cohort study

Background and aims: Because of the changing epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 0131)), we set out to characterize the population-based prevalence of Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in a defined population of Switzerland. Methods: Adult IBD patients were identified by a cross-matched review of histological, hospital and gastroenterologist files throughout a geographical defined population (Canton of Vaud). Demographic factors statistically significantly associated with prevalence were evaluated using a stepwise Poisson regression analysis. Results were compared to IBD prevalence rates in other population-based studies and time trends were performed, based on a systematic literature review. Results: Age and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were 205.7 IBD (100.7 CD and 105.0 UC) cases per 105 inhabitants. Among 1016 IBD patients (519 CD and 497 UC), females outnumbered mates in CD (p < 0.001), but mates were more represented in elderly UC patients (p = 0.008). Thus, being a mate was statistically associated with UC (Relative Risk (RR) 1.25; p = 0.013), whereas being a female was associated with CD (RR 1.27; p = 0.007). Living in an urban zone was associated with both CD and UC (RR 1.49; p < 0.001, 1.63; p < 0.001, respectively). From 1960 to 2005, increases in UC and CD prevalences of 2.4% (95%CI, 2.1%-2.8%; p < 0.001) and 3.6% (95%CI, 3.1%-4.1%; p < 0.001) per annum were found in industrialised countries.

Vascular risk factors in the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Identification of the population at risk of stroke remains the best approach to assess the burden of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. METHODS: The prevalence of hypertension (HT), hypercholesterolemia (HCh), diabetes mellitus (DM), overweight (OW), obesity (OB), tobacco use (SM), and their combinations was examined in 4,458 Swiss persons (1,741 men and 2,717 women, mean age 57.8 +/- 15 years), who volunteered for the present survey. RESULTS: OW was the most prevalent risk factor (50 %), followed by HT (47%), HCh (33%), SM (13 %) and DM (1.6 %). The proportion of persons without risk factors (RF) was 19.9%, with 1 RF 41.5%, 2 RF 33.8%, 3 RF 4%, and 4 RF 0.9%. OW was more prevalent in men than in women (53% vs. 41%, P=0.02). More men than women aged 41-50 years and 51-60 years had HT (49 % vs. 36%, P=0.01, and 52 % vs. 42%, P=0.02). The prevalence of HCh and DM did not show any sex-related differences. HT, OW and HCh were not only the most common single risk factors, but were also most likely to aggregate with each other. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of Swiss people have one or two vascular risk factors. OW and HT are by far most common and are likely to aggregate with each other. A small modification of these two factors would reduce the incidence of stroke and myocardial infarction significantly.

Survival and health in liveborn infants with transposition of great arteries--a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe treatment, survival, and morbidity for liveborn infants with isolated transposition of great arteries (TGA). DESIGN: Population-based data from 7 European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). RESULTS: Ninety-seven infants were diagnosed with isolated TGA and livebirth prevalence was 2.0 per 10,000 livebirths. The majority of infants were treated with prostaglandins (83%) and 57% had a catheter atrial septostomia performed. Arterial switch surgery was performed in 78 infants, other or unknown type of surgery was performed in 3 cases, and for 6 infants there was no information on surgery. At 1 year of age 69 infants were alive (71%) and 24 (25%) were dead (4 unknown). There were 10 deaths before surgery and 58% of all deaths took place during the first week. There was no statistically significant regional difference in mortality. Eight infants diagnosed prenatally all survived to 1 year and only 71% of infants diagnosed after birth survived (P = 0.08). Data on morbidity at 1 year of age was available for 57 infants. Fifty-one infants were reported with normal health and development. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study survival for liveborn infants with TGA is lower than in studies published from tertiary centers. Outcome for survivors at 1 year of age seems favorable.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

B cell response after MMTV infection: extrafollicular plasmablasts represent the main infected population and can transmit viral infection.

The immune response to mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) relies on the presentation of an MMTV-encoded superantigen by infected B cells to superantigen-specific T cells. The initial extrafollicular B cell differentiation involved the generation of B cells expressing low levels of B220. These B220low B cells corresponded to plasmablasts that expressed high levels of CD43 and syndecan-1 and were CD62 ligand- and IgD-. Viral DNA was detected nearly exclusively in these B220low B cells by PCR, and retroviral type-A particles were observed in their cytoplasm by electron microscopy. An MMTV transmission to the offspring was also achieved after transfer of B220low CD62 ligand- CD43+ plasmablasts into noninfected females. These data suggest that B220low plasmablasts, representing the bulk of infected B cells, are capable of sustaining viral replication and may be involved in the transmission of MMTV.

Prospective monitoring of a CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T-cell population after first kidney transplantation following thymoglobulin or basiliximab induction

Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. Induction therapies may have an impact on this alloreactive T cell population. In this study, we prospectively analyzed CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells after induction with either thymoglobulin or basiliximab. Patients and methods: A total of twenty-seven kidney transplant recipients were prospectively enrolled; 14 received thymoglobulin induction followed by a 4-day course of steroids with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil («thymo group»), and 13 received basiliximab induction followed by standard triple immunosuppression (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone) («BSX group»). Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry of the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells was performed at 0, 3 and 6 months after transplantation. Twenty-four healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups; at 6 months, patient survival (100%), graft survival (100%), serum creatinine (thymo group versus BSX group: 129 versus 125 micromol/l) and acute rejection (2/14 versus 2/13) were not significantly different. Thymo induction produced a prolonged CD4 T cell depletion. As compared to pre-transplantation values, an expansion of the alloreactive T cell population was observed at 3 months in both thymo (mean: from 6.38% to 14.72%) and BSX (mean: from 8.01% to 18.42%) groups. At 6 months, the alloreactive T cell population remained significantly expanded in the thymo group (16.92 ± 2.87%) whereas it tended to decrease in the BSX group (10.22 ± 1.38%). Conclusion: Overall, our results indicate that the expansion of alloreactive T cells occurs rapidly after transplantation in patients receiving either thymo or BSX induction. Whether differences at later timepoints or whether different IS regimens may modify this alloreactive population remains to be studied.

Tunisian population data on 10 Y-chromosomal loci.

Alleles and haplotypes frequencies for 10 Y-chromosome STR loci (DYS19, DYS385 I/II, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS438 and DYS439), included in the Y-Plex6 and Y-Plex5 kits were determined for a Tunisian population sample of 100 male individuals.

From the Apennines to the Alps: colonization genetics of the naturally expanding Italian wolf (Canis lupus) population

Wolves in Italy strongly declined in the past and were confined south of the Alps since the turn of the last century, reduced in the 1970s to approximately 100 individuals surviving in two fragmented subpopulations in the central-southern Apennines. The Italian wolves are presently expanding in the Apennines, and started to recolonize the western Alps in Italy, France and Switzerland about 16 years ago. In this study, we used a population genetic approach to elucidate some aspects of the wolf recolonization process. DNA extracted from 3068 tissue and scat samples collected in the Apennines (the source populations) and in the Alps (the colony), were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci aiming to assess (i) the strength of the bottleneck and founder effects during the onset of colonization; (ii) the rates of gene flow between source and colony; and (iii) the minimum number of colonizers that are needed to explain the genetic variability observed in the colony. We identified a total of 435 distinct wolf genotypes, which showed that wolves in the Alps: (i) have significantly lower genetic diversity (heterozygosity, allelic richness, number of private alleles) than wolves in the Apennines; (ii) are genetically distinct using pairwise F(ST) values, population assignment test and Bayesian clustering; (iii) are not in genetic equilibrium (significant bottleneck test). Spatial autocorrelations are significant among samples separated up to c. 230 km, roughly correspondent to the apparent gap in permanent wolf presence between the Alps and north Apennines. The estimated number of first-generation migrants indicates that migration has been unidirectional and male-biased, from the Apennines to the Alps, and that wolves in southern Italy did not contribute to the Alpine population. These results suggest that: (i) the Alps were colonized by a few long-range migrating wolves originating in the north Apennine subpopulation; (ii) during the colonization process there has been a moderate bottleneck; and (iii) gene flow between sources and colonies was moderate (corresponding to 1.25-2.50 wolves per generation), despite high potential for dispersal. Bottleneck simulations showed that a total of c. 8-16 effective founders are needed to explain the genetic diversity observed in the Alps. Levels of genetic diversity in the expanding Alpine wolf population, and the permanence of genetic structuring, will depend on the future rates of gene flow among distinct wolf subpopulation fragments.

Environmental sex reversal, Trojan sex genes, and sex ratio adjustment: conditions and population consequences.

Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

Expansion and tissue infiltration of an allospecific CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7Ralphahigh cell population in solid organ transplant recipients.

It has been recently shown (Seddiki, N., B. Santner-Nanan, J. Martinson, J. Zaunders, S. Sasson, A. Landay, M. Solomon, W. Selby, S.I. Alexander, R. Nanan, et al. 2006. J. Exp. Med. 203:1693-1700.) that the expression of interleukin (IL) 7 receptor (R) alpha discriminates between two distinct CD4 T cell populations, both characterized by the expression of CD25, i.e. CD4 regulatory T (T reg) cells and activated CD4 T cells. T reg cells express low levels of IL-7Ralpha, whereas activated CD4 T cells are characterized by the expression of IL-7Ralpha(high). We have investigated the distribution of these two CD4 T cell populations in 36 subjects after liver and kidney transplantation and in 45 healthy subjects. According to a previous study (Demirkiran, A., A. Kok, J. Kwekkeboom, H.J. Metselaar, H.W. Tilanus, and L.J. van der Laan. 2005. Transplant. Proc. 37:1194-1196.), we observed that the T reg CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(low) cell population was reduced in transplant recipients (P < 0.00001). Interestingly, the CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(high) cell population was significantly increased in stable transplant recipients compared with healthy subjects (P < 0.00001), and the expansion of this cell population was even greater in patients with documented humoral chronic rejection compared with stable transplant recipients (P < 0.0001). The expanded CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(high) cell population contained allospecific CD4 T cells and secreted effector cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and interferon gamma, thus potentially contributing to the mechanisms of chronic rejection. More importantly, CD4(+)IL-7Ralpha(+)and CD25(+)IL-7Ralpha(+) cells were part of the T cell population infiltrating the allograft of patients with a documented diagnosis of chronic humoral rejection. These results indicate that the CD4(+)CD25(+)IL-7Ralpha(+) cell population may represent a valuable, sensitive, and specific marker to monitor allospecific CD4 T cell responses both in blood and in tissues after organ transplantation.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.