486 resultados para Bayesian diagnostic measure


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Background: The first AO comprehensive pediatric long bone fracture classification system has been established following a structured path of development and validation with experienced pediatric surgeons. Methods: A follow-up series of agreement studies was applied to specify and evaluate a grading system for displacement of pediatric supracondylar fractures. An iterative process comprising an international group of 5 experienced pediatric surgeons (Phase 1) followed by a pragmatic multicenter agreement study involving 26 raters (Phase 2) was used. The last evaluations were conducted on a consecutive collection of 154 supracondylar fractures documented by standard anteroposterior and lateral radiographs. Results: Fractures were classified according to 1 of 4 grades: I = incomplete fracture with no or minimal displacement; II = Incomplete fracture with continuity of the posterior (extension fracture) or anterior cortex (flexion fracture); III = lack of bone continuity (broken cortex), but still some contact between the fracture planes; IV = complete fracture with no bone continuity (broken cortex), and no contact between the fracture planes. A diagnostic algorithm to support the practical application of the grading system in a clinical setting, as well as an aid using a circle placed over the capitellum was proposed. The overall kappa coefficients were 0.68 and 0.61 in the Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies, respectively. In the Phase 1 study, fracture grades I, II, III, and IV were classified with median accuracies of 91%, 82%, 83%, and 99.5%, respectively. Similar median accuracies of 86% (Grade I), 73% (Grade II), 83%(Grade III), and 92% were reported for the Phase 2 study. Reliability was high in distinguishing complete, unstable fractures from stable injuries [ie, kappa coefficients of 0.84 (Phase 1) and 0.83 (Phase 2) were calculated]; in Phase 2, surgeons' accuracies in classifying complete fractures were all above 85%. Conclusions: With clear and unambiguous definition, this new grading system for supracondylar fracture displacement has proved to be sufficiently reliable and accurate when applied by pediatric surgeons in the framework of clinical routine as well as research.

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Iron deficiency is generally investigated when faced with anemia, or with symptoms that could be related to iron deficiency without anemia. This simple disorder is easy to treat, provided that the diagnosis is correct. Several biological tests are available, but their interpretation is oftentimes problematic. Pre-analytical factors can interfere with measurements, normal values can change depending on suppliers, and, above all, results from different markers can be contradictory in some clinical situations. The aim of this article is to evaluate how the evolution of scientific knowledge and clinical trials can contribute to a better understanding and greater reliability in the diagnosis of iron deficiency.

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Mild to moderate forms of orbitopathy are common in auto-immune thyroid diseases, whereas severe forms are rare. Euthyroidism restoration, no smoking, and ocular local lubricants are necessary for all the patients. In case of mild orbitopathy, treatment by selenium is now indicated. Active forms of thyroid orbitopathy are better treated by IV steroids. Surgery is indicated in optic neuropathy resistant to steroids and in sequellar forms of the disease.

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Invasive fungal diseases (IFDs) continue to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in patients with haematological malignancy. Diagnosis of IFD is difficult, with the sensitivity of the gold standard tests (culture and histopathology) often reported to be low, which may at least in part be due to sub-optimal sampling or subsequent handling in the routine microbiological laboratory. Therefore, a working group of the European Conference in Infections in Leukaemia was convened in 2009 with the task of reviewing the classical diagnostic procedures and providing recommendations for their optimal use. The recommendations were presented and approved at the ECIL-3 conference in September 2009. Although new serological and molecular tests are examined in separate papers, this review focuses on sample types, microscopy and culture procedures, antifungal susceptibility testing and imaging. The performance and limitations of these procedures are discussed and recommendations are provided on when and how to use them and how to interpret the results.

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Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

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Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection is known to have two main outcomes: latent infection (LTBI) where the pathogen is in a dormant form or active tuberculosis disease (TB), which is, most of the time, highly transmissible. Over one-third of the world's population asymptomatically harbours a latent form of Mtb with a 10% risk of disease reactivation. Efficient vaccine strategies remain unknown and the existing BCG vaccine is believed to protect against only some forms of TB (extra-pulmonary TB in children). Moreover, timely identification of TB remains complex with the actual diagnosis based on clinical observations associated to low efficient tests. Furthermore, current therapies are expensive, heavy and long for patients, and present lesser and lesser efficiency against new drug-resistant strains of Mtb. It is thus important to develop our knowledge on host -Mtb relationship to propose new vaccines, diagnosis tools and medications for the future. This thesis aims at improving our understanding of human immunology in the field of TB. All along this work, the same algorithm has been used and points towards the discovery of new correlates of protection through the comparison of T-cell immune responses in patients with LTBI or TB. We performed a comprehensive analysis of T-cell immune responses to Mtb using polychromatic flow cytometiy to study the functional profile of Μ/ό-specific CD4 Τ cells. We observed a polyfunctional profile in LTBI where CD4 Τ cells mainly co-produced IFN-γ, TNF-α and IL-2. In contrast, in TB, Mtó-specific CD4 Τ cells were mostly single TNF-a positive. Thus, analysis of the cytokine profiles was a strong immunological measure discriminating TB and LTBI. We next analyzed Thl7 cells. Mtò-specific Thl7 cells lacked immediate {i.e. ex vivo) IL-17A effector function in both LTBI and TB individuals. Moreover, they were also absent in bronchoalveolar lavages (BALs). Interestingly, we noticed that Mtb- specific Thl7 cells from LTBI but not from TB subjects acquired the ability to produce IL- 17A following Mtb-specific T-cell expansion. We finally performed a comprehensive characterization of Mfè-specific CD8 Τ cells that were detected in most (60%) TB patients and few (15%) LTBI subjects. We observed differences in the phenotype, the cytotoxicity and the proliferative capacities but not in the cytokine profile of Mtò-specific CD8 Τ cells between LTBI and TB. We concluded that the activity of Mtb infection (i.e. latent versus active) and the clinical presentation were associated to distinct profiles of Mtó-specific CD8 T-cell responses. To conclude, a multiparametric analysis including both CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses to Mtb lead to the development of a significantly improved diagnostic test discriminating between LTBI and TB. All together, these results provide new insights into the interaction between Mtb and the host immune response and expand upon our prior knowledge of tuberculosis. - L'infection par Mycobacterium tuberculosis peut résulter en une infection tuberculeuse latente et asymptomatique ou encore en une forme active et la plupart du temps contagieuse, la tuberculose. Un tiers de la population mondiale serait infectée de manière chronique avec 10 % de risques de développer la maladie durant la vie. Il n'existe actuellement aucun vaccin efficace, le BCG ne conférant qu'une protection partielle contre certaines formes extrapulmonaires de la maladie chez l'enfant. D'autre part, il n'existe pas de méthode diagnostique fiable et rapide, celle-ci se basant dans un premier temps sur l'analyse de la situation clinique des patients. Enfin, les thérapies actuelles sont couteuses et contraignantes pour les patients et tendent à ne plus être efficaces contre les souches émergentes de mycobactérie multi-résistantes. Aussi, il est important de bien comprendre la relation hôte-pathogène de manière à pouvoir proposer de nouveaux outils vaccinaux, diagnostiques et thérapeutiques. Ce manuscrit s'inscrit dans cette direction et vise à améliorer nos connaissances de la réponse immunitaire humaine dans le cadre de la tuberculose. Nous avons suivi un algorithme similaire tout au long des études proposées en comparant les réponses immunes des patients latents à celles des patients actifs, et ce, dans le but de mettre en évidence de potentiels corrélats de protection. Nous avons réalisé par cytométrie en flux une analyse du profil fonctionnel des cellules lymphocytaires CD4 dans la réponse au pathogène. Dans le cas de la tuberculose active, les cellules CD4 sécrètent majoritairement du TNF-α quand, au contraire, elles sécrètent à la fois du TNF-α, de l'IFN-γ et de l'IL-2 (poly-fonctionnalité) dans l'infection latente. Cette observation nous a permis de proposer un nouveau test diagnostique de la maladie active. Nous avons aussi étudié les cellules CD4 Thl7, impliquées dans la réponse immunitaire cellulaire contre les pathogènes extracellulaires et les champignons. Nous avons souligné une variation dans la production d'IL-17 entre infection latente et tuberculose active qui pourrait être impliquée dans la protection de l'individu contre le pathogène. D'autre part, ce manuscrit propose une caractérisation des cellules Τ CD8 dites cytotoxiques dans la tuberculose. Des divergences dans la fréquence des réponses observées, le phénotype mais aussi les capacités prolifératives et cytotoxiques ont pu être mises en évidence entre latence et tuberculose active. Ces observations soulignent le rôle important de ce groupe cellulaire dans l'évolution de la maladie et permettent de proposer une amélioration de l'outil diagnostic précédemment proposé et se basant à la fois sur le profil fonctionnel des cellules Τ CD4 ainsi que sur la présence potentielle d'une réponse CD8 spécifique au pathogène. Ces diverses études réalisées sur les cellules Τ humaines répondant spécifiquement à Mtb nous permettent de faire un pas supplémentaire dans la compréhension de notre réponse immunitaire face à ce pathogène particulièrement dangereux qui continue à l'heure actuelle à tuer chaque année des millions de personnes. - La tuberculose (TB) résulte d'une infection bactérienne par Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) et existe sous deux formes majeures: une forme latente, lorsque la bactérie est en phase de dormance ainsi qu'une forme active durant laquelle la bactérie se divise activement, entraînant les symptômes de la maladie. La personne infectée devient alors contagieuse dans la plupart des cas. Aujourd'hui des études épidémiologiques assument que plus d'un tiers de la population mondiale serait infectée par la forme latente de la bactérie et que 10% des cas réactiveront donnant lieu à diverses présentations de la maladie. Il n'existe actuellement aucun vaccin réellement efficace chez l'adulte. D'autre part, les traitements antibiotiques utilisés sont très lourds pour les patients et les cliniciens doivent faire face à l'émergence de nouvelles souches bactériennes multi-résistantes non affectées par les thérapies existantes. Les autorités sanitaires sont, d'autre part, confrontées à l'absence d'un outil diagnostique rapide, fiable et efficace. En effet, la méthode de référence reste la culture microbiologique du pathogène qui prend généralement plusieurs semaines, pendant lesquelles le patient pourra contaminer d'autres personnes. En résumé, la lutte contre la tuberculose doit passer par l'élaboration d'un vaccin efficace, de nouvelles thérapies, mais aussi par la mise en place de nouveaux tests diagnostics plus rapides afin d'éviter la dissémination de la maladie. Aussi, la relation hôte-bactérie qui n'est actuellement que peu comprise doit être investiguée. Ce travail de thèse a pour but d'étudier la réponse immunitaire chez l'homme infecté par Mtb et vise plus particulièrement l'étude d'une population clé de cellules immunitaires: les lymphocytes T. L'étude des cellules Τ CD4 nous a permis dans un premier temps de proposer un nouveau test diagnostic de la maladie active. Nous avons aussi analysé plus en détail une population spécifique des cellules Τ CD4 (les cellules Thl7), nous permettant d'associer leur fonction avec un possible état physiologique de protection contre le pathogène. En second lieu nous avons réalisé une caractérisation des cellules Τ CD8, à la fois chez les personnes avec des infections latentes et chez les personnes malades. Nous avons mis en évidence des différences fonctionnelles chez les deux groupes de patients, nous permettant ainsi une meilleure compréhension de l'immunité contre Mtb. Enfin, nous avons combiné les différents profils immunologiques obtenus pour développer un test diagnostic plus performant et sensible que celui proposé antérieurement. Ces diverses études réalisées sur les cellules Τ humaines nous permettent de faire un pas supplémentaire dans la compréhension de la réponse immunitaire face à ce pathogène particulièrement dangereux qui continue à tuer chaque année des millions de personnes.

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It has been suggested that determination of the neutrophil elastase alpha1-proteinase inhibitor complex (E-alpha1PI) improves the diagnosis of bacterial infection in newborns. We evaluated the use of E-alpha1PI measurements in 143 newborns, consecutively admitted to a tertiary intensive care unit, employing a new random access assay and a sampling procedure that minimises post-collection artefacts. The 95% range for noninfected newborns was 20-110 microg/l up to the 5th day of life and 20-85 microg/l thereafter. The sensitivity as to the diagnosis of culture-proven bloodstream infection was 80% for E-alpha1PI, 86% for the immature to total neutrophil ratio, 64% for C-reactive protein and 37% for the total white blood cell count. The corresponding specificity amounted to 97%, 85%, 85% and 86%, respectively. E-alpha1PI increases preceded elevations of C-reactive protein by 18 h. Like C-reactive protein, E-alpha1PI levels did not distinguish between bloodstream infection and non-bacterial inflammatory responses. Results of E-alpha1PI became available within 1 h of collection and usually 2-3 h before manual leucocyte counts. CONCLUSION: Determination of neutrophil elastase alpha1-proteinase inhibitor levels yields diagnostic advantages comparable to those of manual differential counts but provide faster turnaround times.

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The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic value of post-mortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) to conventional, ante-mortem computed tomography (CT)-scan, CT-angiography (CTA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in the detection and localization of the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhage with fatal outcomes. The medical records and imaging scans of nine individuals who underwent a conventional, ante-mortem CT-scan, CTA or DSA and later died in the hospital as a result of an acute hemorrhage were reviewed. Post-mortem computed tomography angiography, using multi-phase post-mortem CTA, as well as medico-legal autopsies were performed. Localization accuracy of the bleeding was assessed by comparing the diagnostic findings of the different techniques. The results revealed that data from ante-mortem and post-mortem radiological examinations were similar, though the PMCTA showed a higher sensitivity for detecting the hemorrhage source than did ante-mortem radiological investigations. By comparing the results of PMCTA and conventional autopsy, much higher sensitivity was noted in PMCTA in identifying the source of the bleeding. In fact, the vessels involved were identified in eight out of nine cases using PMCTA and only in three cases through conventional autopsy. Our study showed that PMCTA, similar to clinical radiological investigations, is able to precisely identify lesions of arterial and/or venous vessels and thus determine the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhages with fatal outcomes.

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Two different types of immunological reaction are of assistance in the diagnosis of cancer: The first is detection of a weak immunological response of the patient toward his own tumor cells. Unfortunately the currently available techniques for the demonstration of humoral or cellular immunological reaction against autologous tumor cells are not reproducible enough to be recommended as routine clinical tests. Secondly, it is possible to use antisera, obtained by immunization of animals with human tumor extracts, for the detection of substances released into the blood by the tumor cells. The two major antigens associated with human cancer that can be measured in the blood by very sensitive immunological methods are the alphafetoprotein (AFP) and the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). It is very important for the physician to be fully alive to the usefulness and limitations of such tests in order to interpret them correctly. Clinical situations in which the measurement of AFP and CEA can provide useful information are reviewed.

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This work aimed at assessing the doses delivered in Switzerland to paediatric patients during computed tomography (CT) examinations of the brain, chest and abdomen, and at establishing diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) for various age groups. Forms were sent to the ten centres performing CT on children, addressing the demographics, the indication and the scanning parameters: number of series, kilovoltage, tube current, rotation time, reconstruction slice thickness and pitch, volume CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) and dose length product (DLP). Per age group, the proposed DRLs for brain, chest and abdomen are, respectively, in terms of CTDI(vol): 20, 30, 40, 60 mGy; 5, 8, 10, 12 mGy; 7, 9, 13, 16 mGy; and in terms of DLP: 270, 420, 560, 1,000 mGy cm; 110, 200, 220, 460 mGy cm; 130, 300, 380, 500 mGy cm. An optimisation process should be initiated to reduce the spread in dose recorded in this study. A major element of this process should be the use of DRLs.

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Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.