Detecting the number of clusters of individuals using the software STRUCTURE: a simulation study.

The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.

Simulation of amoxicillin pharmacokinetics in humans for the prevention of streptococcal endocarditis in rats.

The pharmacokinetic determinants of successful antibiotic prophylaxis of endocarditis are not precisely known. Differences in half-lives of antibiotics between animals and humans preclude extrapolation of animal results to human situations. To overcome this limitation, we have mimicked in rats the amoxicillin kinetics in humans following a 3-g oral dose (as often used for prophylaxis of endocarditis) by delivering the drug through a computerized pump. Rats with catheter-induced vegetations were challenged with either of two strains of antibiotic-tolerant viridans group streptococci. Antibiotics were given either through the pump (to simulate the whole kinetic profile during prophylaxis in humans) or as an intravenous bolus which imitated only the peak level of amoxicillin (18 mg/liter) in human serum. Prophylaxis by intravenous bolus was inoculum dependent and afforded a limited protection only in rats challenged with the minimum inoculum size infecting > or = 90% of untreated controls. In contrast, simulation of kinetics in humans significantly protected animals challenged with 10 to 100 times the inoculum of either of the test organisms infecting > or = 90% of untreated controls. Thus, simulation of the profiles of amoxicillin prophylaxis in human serum was more efficacious than mere imitation of the transient peak level in rats. This confirms previous studies suggesting that the duration for which the serum amoxicillin level remained detectable (not only the magnitude of the peak) was an important parameter in successful prophylaxis of endocarditis. The results also suggest that single-dose prophylaxis with 3 g of amoxicillin in humans might be more effective than predicted by conventional animal models in which only peak levels of antibiotic in human serum were stimulated.

Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

SIMULIT : description du modèle de simulation

Le modèle développé à l'Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive de Lausanne utilise un programme informatique pour simuler les mouvements d'entrées et de sorties des hôpitaux de soins généraux. Cette simulation se fonde sur les données récoltées de routine dans les hôpitaux; elle tient notamment compte de certaines variations journalières et saisonnières, du nombre d'entrées, ainsi que du "Case-Mix" de l'hôpital, c'est-à-dire de la répartition des cas selon les groupes cliniques et l'âge des patients.

Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

Combined simulation and mutagenesis analyses reveal the involvement of key residues for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha helix 12 dynamic behavior.

The dynamic properties of helix 12 in the ligand binding domain of nuclear receptors are a major determinant of AF-2 domain activity. We investigated the molecular and structural basis of helix 12 mobility, as well as the involvement of individual residues with regard to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha) constitutive and ligand-dependent transcriptional activity. Functional assays of the activity of PPARalpha helix 12 mutants were combined with free energy molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between the results from these approaches allows us to make robust claims concerning the mechanisms that govern helix 12 functions. Our data support a model in which PPARalpha helix 12 transiently adopts a relatively stable active conformation even in the absence of a ligand. This conformation provides the interface for the recruitment of a coactivator and results in constitutive activity. The receptor agonists stabilize this conformation and increase PPARalpha transcription activation potential. Finally, we disclose important functions of residues in PPARalpha AF-2, which determine the positioning of helix 12 in the active conformation in the absence of a ligand. Substitution of these residues suppresses PPARalpha constitutive activity, without changing PPARalpha ligand-dependent activation potential.

The Effect Of Induced Intraocular Straylight (cataract Simulation) On Sensitivity Measures Of Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry And Moorfields Motion Displacement Test

Purpose: To investigate the effect of incremental increases in intraocular straylight on threshold measurements made by three modern forms of perimetry: Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic, G-Pattern), Pulsar Perimetry (PP) (TOP, 66 points) and the Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (WEBS, 32 points).Methods: Four healthy young observers were recruited (mean age 26yrs [25yrs, 28yrs]), refractive correction [+2 D, -4.25D]). Five white opacity filters (WOF), each scattering light by different amounts were used to create incremental increases in intraocular straylight (IS). Resultant IS values were measured with each WOF and at baseline (no WOF) for each subject using a C-Quant Straylight Meter (Oculus, Wetzlar, Germany). A 25 yr old has an IS value of ~0.85 log(s). An increase of 40% in IS to 1.2log(s) corresponds to the physiological value of a 70yr old. Each WOFs created an increase in IS between 10-150% from baseline, ranging from effects similar to normal aging to those found with considerable cataract. Each subject underwent 6 test sessions over a 2-week period; each session consisted of the 3 perimetric tests using one of the five WOFs and baseline (both instrument and filter were randomised).Results: The reduction in sensitivity from baseline was calculated. A two-way ANOVA on mean change in threshold (where subjects were treated as rows in the block and each increment in fog filters was treated as column) was used to examine the effect of incremental increases in straylight. Both SAP (p<0.001) and Pulsar (p<0.001) were significantly affected by increases in straylight. The MDT (p=0.35) remained comparatively robust to increases in straylight.Conclusions: The Moorfields MDT measurement of threshold is robust to effects of additional straylight as compared to SAP and PP.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Population PK-guided simulation study in children exposed to drugs in human milk

Risks of significant infant drug exposure through human milk arepoorly defined due to lack of large-scale PK data. We propose to useBayesian approach based on population PK (popPK)-guided modelingand simulation for risk prediction. As a proof-of-principle study, weexploited fluoxetine milk concentration data from 25 women. popPKparameters including milk-to-plasma ratio (MP ratio) were estimatedfrom the best model. The dose of fluoxetine the breastfed infant wouldreceive through mother's milk, and infant plasma concentrations wereestimated from 1000 simulated mother-infant pairs, using randomassignment of feeding times and milk volume. A conservative estimateof CYP2D6 activity of 20% of the allometrically-adjusted adult valuewas assumed. Derived model parameters, including MP ratio were consistentwith those reported in the literature. Visual predictive check andother model diagnostics showed no signs of model misspecifications.The model simulation predicted that infant exposure levels to fluoxetinevia mother's milk were below 10% of weight-adjusted maternal therapeuticdoses in >99% of simulated infants. Predicted median ratio ofinfant-mother serum levels at steady state was 0.093 (range 0.033-0.31),consistent with literature reported values (mean=0.07; range 0-0.59).Predicted incidence of relatively high infant-mother ratio (>0.2) ofsteady-state serum fluoxetine concentrations was <1.3%. Overall, ourpredictions are consistent with clinical observations. Our approach maybe valid for other drugs, allowing in silico prediction of infant drugexposure risks through human milk. We will discuss application of thisapproach to another drug used in lactating women.