70 resultados para warranty forecasting
Resumo:
It is likely that during this century polymers based on renewable materials will gradually replace industrial polymers based on petrochemicals. This chapter gives an overview of the current status of research on plant biopolymers that are used as a material in non-food applications. We cover technical and scientific bottlenecks in the production of novel or improved materials, and the potential of using transgenic or alternative crops in overcoming these bottlenecks. Four classes of biopolymers will be discussed: starch, proteins, natural rubber, and poly-beta-hydroxyalkanoates. Renewable polymers produced by chemical polymerization of monomers derived from sugars, vegetable oil, or proteins, are not considered here.
Resumo:
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
Resumo:
Mutations of GPCRs can increase their constitutive (agonist-independent) activity. Some of these mutations have been artificially introduced by site-directed mutagenesis; others occur spontaneously in human diseases. The analysis of constitutively active GPCR mutants has attracted a large interest in the past decade, providing an important contribution to our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying receptor function and drug action.
Resumo:
The profession of family doctor will undergo profound changes in the coming decade due to external, political, demographic and societal developments. Changes will also occur from within the profession affecting its content and its functioning. Other influences, in addition to generational developments (reduced working hours, feminisation, revaluation of the work-life balance), will come from collaboration with new professions, news structures as well as technical and human progress. In this transitional period it is important to uphold core values of family medicine, in particular coordination, continuity of care and the global approach to patients. In training future family doctors we must both prepare them for new skills and roles, and continue to share the core values with them.
Resumo:
Total body irradiation (TBI) has an established role as preparative regimen for bone-marrow transplantation in the treatment of hematological malignancies. Many randomized trials demonstrated that the clinical outcomes obtained from the association of TBI and cyclophosphamide are equivalent, or, sometimes, better than those based on chemotherapeutic agents. Despite the therapeutic progress of the last years, and the consequent improvement in the overall survival, this preparative regimen remains always associated with a relatively high rate of acute and late toxicity. In this article, we review the actual indications of TBI in clinical practice, and analyze the technological progress in this domain. We focus on the hypothesis that a selective irradiation of the hematopoietic or lymphoid organs is actually possible with intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Technical limits and preliminary results in terms of acute and late toxicities of intensity-modulated TBI are analyzed. With these new technologies, treatment-related toxicity is not anymore a major limiting factor in the preparative regimens for bone-marrow transplantation, allowing for a larger spectrum of TBI indications, a possible extension to patients older than 50 years, or a dose escalation. Preliminary results warrant, however, further evaluation in clinical trials to better assess the impact of this new approach on disease control and the long-term toxicity.
Resumo:
Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.
Resumo:
Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.
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A growing body of evidence indicates that a subpopulation of tumor cells, the so-called cancer stem cells (CSCs), drive tumor growth and metastasis and preclude therapy efficiency. CSCs have been isolated in virtually all type of tumors. These findings may have important consequences for clinical prognostic. Current cancer research aims to unravel the CSCs' unique biological mechanisms. The development of new CSCs-targeted treatments shed therefore new hopes in improving cancer therapy.
Resumo:
An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.
Resumo:
Development of dialysis has saved the lives of many patients. However, haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis are very demanding in resources such as water and electricity, and generate a large amount of waste. In this article, we will review the environmental aspects of dialysis. Different solutions will be discussed, such as recycling of water discharged during reverse osmosis, the integration of solar energy, recycling of waste plastics, and the use of other techniques such as sorbent dialysis. In a world where natural resources are precious and where global warming is a major problem, it is important that not only dialysis, but all branches of medicine become more attentive to ecology.
Resumo:
Training new doctors in general internal medicine represents a challenge. This requires to define future needs, which result from interest that are not necessarily convergent between patients, doctors, insurers and politicians. Problems related to medical demography in Switzerland, with the ageing of the population, the increase in health care costs and the place of Switzerland within the European Community require the implementation of specific objectives to train new physicians in general internal medicine. The success of these opportunities depends on social factors, political choices and choices from physician's association. In this article we will approach these challenges by formulating some proposals--nonexhaustive--in order to guarantee sufficient renewal in general internal medicine.