Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Swiss medical centres vary significantly when it comes to outcomes of neonates with a very low gestational age.

AIM: This study quantified the impact of perinatal predictors and medical centre on the outcome of very low-gestational-age neonates (VLGANs) born at <32 completed weeks in Switzerland. METHODS: Using prospectively collected data from a 10-year cohort of VLGANs, we developed logistic regression models for three different time points: delivery, NICU admission and seven days of age. The data predicted survival to discharge without severe neonatal morbidity, such as major brain injury, moderate or severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, retinopathy of prematurity (≥stage three) or necrotising enterocolitis (≥stage three). RESULTS: From 2002 to 2011, 6892 VLGANs were identified: 5854 (85%) of the live-born infants survived and 84% of the survivors did not have severe neonatal complications. Predictors for adverse outcome at delivery and on NICU admission were low gestational age, low birthweight, male sex, multiple birth, birth defects and lack of antenatal corticosteroids. Proven sepsis was an additional risk factor on day seven of life. The medical centre remained a statistically significant factor at all three time points after adjusting for perinatal predictors. CONCLUSION: After adjusting for perinatal factors, the survival of Swiss VLGANs without severe neonatal morbidity was strongly influenced by the medical centre that treated them.

Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

Aim Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the degree of niche conservatism between distant populations of native alpine plant species that have been separated for thousands of years. Location European Alps and Fennoscandia. Methods Of the studied pool of 888 terrestrial vascular plant species occurring in both the Alps and Fennoscandia, we used two complementary approaches to test and quantify climatic-niche shifts for 31 species having strictly disjunct populations and 358 species having either a contiguous or a patchy distribution with distant populations. First, we used species distribution modelling to test for a region effect on each species' climatic niche. Second, we quantified niche overlap and shifts in niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) within a bi-dimensional climatic space. Results Only one species (3%) of the 31 species with strictly disjunct populations and 58 species (16%) of the 358 species with distant populations showed a region effect on their climatic niche. Niche overlap was higher for species with strictly disjunct populations than for species with distant populations and highest for arctic-alpine species. Climatic niches were, on average, wider and located towards warmer and wetter conditions in the Alps. Main conclusion Climatic niches seem to be generally conserved between populations that are separated between the Alps and Fennoscandia and have probably been so for 10,000-15,000 years. Therefore, the basic assumption of species distribution models that a species' climatic niche is constant in space and time - at least on time scales 104 years or less - seems to be largely valid for arctic-alpine plants.

The Genomic Signature of Population Reconnection Following Isolation: From Theory to HIV.

Ease of worldwide travel provides increased opportunities for organisms not only to colonize new environments but also to encounter related but diverged populations. Such events of reconnection and secondary contact of previously isolated populations are widely observed at different time scales. For example, during the quaternary glaciation, sea water level fluctuations caused temporal isolation of populations, often to be followed by secondary contact. At shorter time scales, population isolation and reconnection of viruses are commonly observed, and such events are often associated with epidemics and pandemics. Here, using coalescent theory and simulations, we describe the temporal impact of population reconnection after isolation on nucleotide differences and the site frequency spectrum, as well as common summary statistics of DNA variation. We identify robust genomic signatures of population reconnection after isolation. We utilize our development to infer the recent evolutionary history of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) in Asia and South America, successfully retrieving the successive HIV subtype colonization events in these regions. Our analysis reveals that divergent HIV-1 subtype populations are currently admixing in these regions, suggesting that HIV-1 may be undergoing a process of homogenization, contrary to popular belief.

Evidence for daily and weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity of physical activity in a large cohort of individuals from five different countries.

Background Biological rhythmicity has been extensively studied in animals for many decades. Although temporal patterns of physical activity have been identified in humans, no large-scale, multi-national study has been published, and no comparison has been attempted of the ubiquity of activity rhythms at different time scales (such as daily, weekly, monthly, and annual). Methods Using individually worn actigraphy devices, physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five different countries (adults of African descent from Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, and the United States) was measured for seven consecutive days at different times of the year. Results Analysis for rhythmic patterns identified daily rhythmicity of physical activity in all five of the represented nationalities. Weekly rhythmicity was found in some, but not all, of the nationalities. No significant evidence of lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity was found in any of the groups. Conclusions These findings extend previous small-scale observations of daily rhythmicity to a large cohort of individuals from around the world. The findings also confirm the existence of modest weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity in human activity. These differences in rhythm strength have implications for the management of health hazards of rhythm misalignment. Key Messages Analysis of the pattern of physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five countries revealed strong daily rhythmicity in all five countries, moderate weekly rhythmicity in some countries, and no lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity in any of the countries.

Contextual factors multiplex to control multisensory processes.

This study analyzed high-density event-related potentials (ERPs) within an electrical neuroimaging framework to provide insights regarding the interaction between multisensory processes and stimulus probabilities. Specifically, we identified the spatiotemporal brain mechanisms by which the proportion of temporally congruent and task-irrelevant auditory information influences stimulus processing during a visual duration discrimination task. The spatial position (top/bottom) of the visual stimulus was indicative of how frequently the visual and auditory stimuli would be congruent in their duration (i.e., context of congruence). Stronger influences of irrelevant sound were observed when contexts associated with a high proportion of auditory-visual congruence repeated and also when contexts associated with a low proportion of congruence switched. Context of congruence and context transition resulted in weaker brain responses at 228 to 257 ms poststimulus to conditions giving rise to larger behavioral cross-modal interactions. Importantly, a control oddball task revealed that both congruent and incongruent audiovisual stimuli triggered equivalent non-linear multisensory interactions when congruence was not a relevant dimension. Collectively, these results are well explained by statistical learning, which links a particular context (here: a spatial location) with a certain level of top-down attentional control that further modulates cross-modal interactions based on whether a particular context repeated or changed. The current findings shed new light on the importance of context-based control over multisensory processing, whose influences multiplex across finer and broader time scales.

Reframing video gaming and internet use addiction : empirical cross-national comparison of heavy use over time and addiction scales among young users

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evidence-based and reliable measures of addictive disorders are needed in general population-based assessments. One study suggested that heavy use over time (UOT) should be used instead of self-reported addiction scales (AS). This study compared UOT and AS regarding video gaming and internet use empirically, using associations with comorbid factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data from the 2011 French Survey on Health and Consumption on Call-up and Preparation for Defence-Day (ESCAPAD), cross-sectional data from the 2012 Swiss ado@internet.ch study and two waves of longitudinal data (2010-13) of the Swiss Longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). SETTING: Three representative samples from the general population of French and Swiss adolescents and young Swiss men, aged approximately 17, 14 and 20 years, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: ESCAPAD: n =22 945 (47.4% men); ado@internet.ch: n =3049 (50% men); C-SURF: n =4813 (baseline + follow-up, 100% men). MEASUREMENTS: We assessed video gaming/internet UOT ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch: number of hours spent online per week, C-SURF: latent score of time spent gaming/using internet] and AS (ESCAPAD: Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire, ado@internet.ch: Internet Addiction Test, C-SURF: Gaming AS). Comorbidities were assessed with health outcomes (ESCAPAD: physical health evaluation with a single item, suicidal thoughts, and appointment with a psychiatrist; ado@internet.ch: WHO-5 and somatic health problems; C-SURF: Short Form 12 (SF-12 Health Survey) and Major Depression Inventory (MDI). FINDINGS: UOT and AS were correlated moderately (ESCAPAD: r = 0.40, ado@internet.ch: r = 0.53 and C-SURF: r = 0.51). Associations of AS with comorbidity factors were higher than those of UOT in cross-sectional (AS: .005 ≤ |b| ≤ 2.500, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.000) and longitudinal analyses (AS: 0.093 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.079, UOT: 0.020 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.329). The results were similar across gender in ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch (men: AS: 0.006 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.211, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.061; women: AS: 0.004 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.155, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.094). CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of heavy use over time captures part of addictive video gaming/internet use without overlapping to a large extent with the results of measuring by self-reported addiction scales (AS). Measuring addictive video gaming/internet use via self-reported addiction scales relates more strongly to comorbidity factors than heavy use over time.