Fitness, inclusive fitness, and optimization

Individual-as-maximizing agent analogies result in a simple understanding of the functioning of the biological world. Identifying the conditions under which individuals can be regarded as fitness maximizing agents is thus of considerable interest to biologists. Here, we compare different concepts of fitness maximization, and discuss within a single framework the relationship between Hamilton's (J Theor Biol 7: 1-16, 1964) model of social interactions, Grafen's (J Evol Biol 20: 1243-1254, 2007a) formal Darwinism project, and the idea of evolutionary stable strategies. We distinguish cases where phenotypic effects are additive separable or not, the latter not being covered by Grafen's analysis. In both cases it is possible to define a maximand, in the form of an objective function phi(z), whose argument is the phenotype of an individual and whose derivative is proportional to Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. However, this maximand can be identified with the expression for fecundity or fitness only in the case of additive separable phenotypic effects, making individual-as-maximizing agent analogies unattractive (although formally correct) under general situations of social interactions. We also feel that there is an inconsistency in Grafen's characterization of the solution of his maximization program by use of inclusive fitness arguments. His results are in conflict with those on evolutionary stable strategies obtained by applying inclusive fitness theory, and can be repaired only by changing the definition of the problem.

Bénéfices de l'utilisation d'un test VIH rapide à la permanence PMU-FLON [Benefits of using rapid HIV testing at the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic in Lausanne].

Lab tests are frequently used in primary care to guide patient care. This is particularly the case when a severe disorder, or one that will affect patients' initial care, needs to be excluded rapidly. At the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic the use of HIV testing as recommended by the Swiss Office of Public Health was hampered by the delay in obtaining test results. This led us to introduce rapid HIV testing which provides results within 30 minutes. Following the first 250 tests the authors discuss the results as well as the benefits of rapid HIV testing in an urban walk-in clinic.

Efficacy of an eradication protocol in case of Pseudomonas aeruginosa primo-infections in children with cystic fibrosis

Introduction: Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) are more susceptible to pathogens like P. aeruginosa (PA). PA primo-­‐infections require particular attention, as with failure in eradication, there is accelerated lung deterioration. The main aim of this study is to assess the rate of PA eradication according to our particular protocol with inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin, as there is no consensus in the literature on what eradication protocol the best is. Methods: Retrospective single centre study with data analysis from June 1st 2007 to June 1st 2011 of patients who had primo-­‐infections exclusively treated by 3 x 28 days of inhaled tobramycin and oral ciprofloxacin for the first and last 21 days. Success in eradication is defined by ≥ 3 negative bacteriologies for 6 months after the beginning of the protocol. If ≥ 1 bacteriology is positive, we consider the eradication as a failure. Results: Out of 41 patients, 18 were included in our analysis. 7 girls (38.9%) and 11 boys (61.1%) followed the eradication protocol. Boys had 12 primo-­‐infections and girls had 8. Among these 20 primo-­‐infections, 16 (80%) had an all-­‐overall success in eradication and 4 (20%) a failure. No significant statistical difference for age between these groups (t-­‐test = 0.07, p = 0.94), neither for FEV1% (t-­‐test = 0.96, p = 0.41) nor BMI (t-­‐test = 1.35, p = 0.27). Rate of success was 100% for girls and 66.6% for boys. Conclusion: Our protocol succeeded in an overall eradication rate of 80%, without statistical significant impact on FEV1 % and BMI values. However, there is a sex difference with eradication rates in girls (100%) and boys (66.6%). A sex difference has not yet been reported in the literature. This should be evaluated in further studies.

Choice of an adequate promoter for efficient complementation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae: a case study.

Conservation of the function of open reading frames recently identified in fungal genome projects can be assessed by complementation of deletion mutants of putative Saccharomyces cerevisiae orthologs. A parallel complementation assay expressing the homologous wild type S. cerevisiae gene is generally performed as a positive control. However, we and others have found that failure of complementation can occur in this case. We investigated the specific cases of S. cerevisiae TBF1 and TIM54 essential genes. Heterologous complementation with Candida glabrata TBF1 or TIM54 gene was successful using the constitutive promoters TDH3 and TEF. In contrast, homologous complementation with S. cerevisiae TBF1 or TIM54 genes failed using these promoters, and was successful only using the natural promoters of these genes. The reduced growth rate of S. cerevisiae complemented with C. glabrata TBF1 or TIM54 suggested a diminished functionality of the heterologous proteins compared to the homologous proteins. The requirement of the homologous gene for the natural promoter was alleviated for TBF1 when complementation was assayed in the absence of sporulation and germination, and for TIM54 when two regions of the protein presumably responsible for a unique translocation pathway of the TIM54 protein into the mitochondrial membrane were deleted. Our results demonstrate that the use of different promoters may prove necessary to obtain successful complementation, with use of the natural promoter being the best approach for homologous complementation.

Intrauterine exposure to carbamazepine and specific congenital malformations: systematic review and case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify specific major congenital malformations associated with use of carbamazepine in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: A review of all published cohort studies to identify key indications and a population based case-control study to test these indications. SETTING: Review of PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for papers about carbamazepine exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy and specific malformations, and the EUROCAT Antiepileptic Study Database, including data from 19 European population based congenital anomaly registries, 1995-2005. PARTICIPANTS: The literature review covered eight cohort studies of 2680 pregnancies with carbamazepine monotherapy exposure, and the EUROCAT dataset included 98 075 registrations of malformations covering over 3.8 million births. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. Odds ratios for malformations with exposure to carbamazepine among cases (five types of malformation identified in the literature review) compared with two groups of controls: other non-chromosomal registrations of malformations and chromosomal syndromes. RESULTS: The literature review yielded an overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation of 3.3% (95% confidence interval 2.7 to 4.2) after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. In 131 registrations of malformations, the fetus had been exposed to carbamazepine monotherapy. Spina bifida was the only specific major congenital malformation significantly associated with exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy (odds ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 5.3) compared with no antiepileptic drug), but the risk was smaller for carbamazepine than for valproic acid (0.2, 0.1 to 0.6). There was no evidence for an association with total anomalous pulmonary venous return (no cases with carbamazepine exposure), cleft lip (with or without palate) (0.2, 0.0 to 1.3), diaphragmatic hernia (0.9, 0.1 to 6.6), or hypospadias (0.7, 0.3 to 1.6) compared with no exposure to antiepileptic drugs. Further exploratory analysis suggested a higher risk of single ventricle and atrioventricular septal defect. CONCLUSION: Carbamazepine teratogenicity is relatively specific to spina bifida, though the risk is less than with valproic acid. Despite the large dataset, there was not enough power to detect moderate risks for some rare major congenital malformations.

Dose optimization approach to fast X-ray microtomography of the lung alveoli.

A basic prerequisite for in vivo X-ray imaging of the lung is the exact determination of radiation dose. Achieving resolutions of the order of micrometres may become particularly challenging owing to increased dose, which in the worst case can be lethal for the imaged animal model. A framework for linking image quality to radiation dose in order to optimize experimental parameters with respect to dose reduction is presented. The approach may find application for current and future in vivo studies to facilitate proper experiment planning and radiation risk assessment on the one hand and exploit imaging capabilities on the other.

Predictive factors of adrenal insufficiency in patients admitted to acute medical wards: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Evaluation of an online, case-based interactive approach to teaching pathophysiology

Rapport de synthèse : L'article qui fait l'objet de ma thèse évalue une nouvelle approche pédagogique pour l'apprentissage de certains chapitres de physiopathologie. Le dispositif pédagogique se base sur l'alternance d'apprentissage ex-cathedra et de l'utilisation d'un site web comprenant des vignettes cliniques. Lors de la consultation de ces-dernières, l'étudiant est invité à demander des examens de laboratoire dont il pourrait justifier la pertinence selon le cas clinique étudié. La nouveauté du procédé réside dans le fait que, préalablement à son cours ex-cathedra, l'enseignant peut consulter les statistiques de demandes de laboratoire et ainsi orienter son cours selon les éléments mal compris par les étudiants. A la suite du cours ex-cathedra, les étudiants peuvent consulter sur internet la vignette clinique complète avec des explications. A l'issue de tout le cours, une évaluation auprès des étudiants a été conduite. Le procédé a été mis en place durant deux années consécutives et l'article en discute notamment les résultats. Nous avons pu conclure que cette méthode innovatrice d'enseignement amène les étudiants à mieux se préparer pour les cours ex-cathedra tout en permettant à l'enseignant d'identifier plus précisément quelles thématiques étaient difficiles pour les étudiants et donc d'ajuster au mieux son cours. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à créer ce dispositif d'apprentissage, à créer l'application web des vignettes cliniques et à l'implanter durant deux années consécutives. J'ai ensuite analysé les données des évaluations et écrit l'article que j'ai présenté à la revue 'Medical Teacher'. Après quelques corrections et précisions demandées par le comité de lecture, l'article a été accepté et publié. Ce travail a débouché sur une seconde version de l'application web qui est actuellement utilisée lors du module 3.1 de 3è année à l'Ecole de Médecine à Lausanne. Summary : Since the early days of sexual selection, our understanding of the selective forces acting on males and females during reproduction has increased remarkably. However, despite a long tradition of experimental and theoretical work in this field and relentless effort, numerous questions remain unanswered and many results are conflicting. Moreover, the interface between sexual selection and conservation biology has to date received little attention, despite existing evidence for its importance. In the present thesis, I first used an empirical approach to test various sexual selection hypotheses in a population of whitefish of central Switzerland. This precise population is characterized by a high prevalence of gonadal alterations in males. In particular, I challenged the hypothesis that whitefish males displaying peculiar gonadal features are of lower genetic quality than other seemingly normal males. Additionally, I also worked on identifying important determinant of sperm behavior. During a second theoretical part of my work, which is part of a larger project on the evolution of female mate preferences in harvested fish populations, I developed an individual-based simulation model to estimate how different mate discrimination costs affect the demographical behavior of fish populations and the evolutionary trajectories of female mate preferences. This latter work provided me with some insight on a recently published article addressing the importance of sexual selection for harvesting-induced evolution. I built upon this insight in a short perspective paper. In parallel, I let some methodological questions drive my thoughts, and wrote an essay about possible synergies between the biological, the philosophical and the statistical approach to biological questions.

Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

School Choice and Student Screening in the Chilean Educational System: Who Chooses Whom?. The Case of the Catholic Education

The student´s screening made by schools corresponds to a regulatory mechanism for school inclusion and exclusion that normally overlaps the parental expectations of school choice. Based in "Parents survey 2006" data (n=188.073) generated by the Chilean Educational Ministry, this paper describe the parents reasons for choosing their children's school, and school´s criteria for screening students. It concludes that the catholic schools are the most selective institutions and usually exceed the capacity of parental choice. One of the reasons to select students would be the direct relationship between this practice and increasing the average score on the test of the Chilean Educational Quality Measurement System (SIMCE).

Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.

The cervical spine in calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate deposition disease. A prevalent case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate (CPPD) deposition disease is a risk factor for neck pain. METHODS: A prevalent case-control study was conducted to assess cervical calcifications and neck pain between patients with and without known peripheral CPPD deposition disease. CPPD cases were included if diagnosed with CPPD deposition disease of peripheral joints, and excluded if their chief complaint was neck pain. Controls were randomly selected among consecutive patients, hospitalized for conditions unrelated to CPPD deposition disease or neck pain, and matched to CPPD cases by age and sex. Cervical calcifications were assessed by lateral cervical radiographs and computed tomography scans of the upper cervical spine; neck pain and cervical function were appraised by a validated questionnaire. RESULTS: Cervical calcifications were found in 24 out of 35 patients (69%) in the CPPD group compared to 4 out of 35 patients (11%) in the control group (p < 0.001). Patients with CPPD deposition disease reported significantly more neck pain and discomfort than controls (p < 0.001), and were 5 times more likely to report any neck pain (odds ratio 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.9, 21.9). Among male patients, more extensive cervical calcified deposits correlated with more severe neck pain (rs = 0.58, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that CPPD deposition disease frequently involves the cervical spine and may be associated with the development of neck pain.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.