Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Phenotypic divergence but not genetic distance predicts assortative mating among species of a cichlid fish radiation.

The hypothesis of ecological divergence giving rise to premating isolation in the face of gene flow is controversial. However, this may be an important mechanism to explain the rapid multiplication of species during adaptive radiation following the colonization of a new environment when geographical barriers to gene flow are largely absent but underutilized niche space is abundant. Using cichlid fish, we tested the prediction of ecological speciation that the strength of premating isolation among species is predicted by phenotypic rather than genetic distance. We conducted mate choice experiments between three closely related, sympatric species of a recent radiation in Lake Mweru (Zambia/DRC) that differ in habitat use and phenotype, and a distantly related population from Lake Bangweulu that resembles one of the species in Lake Mweru. We found significant assortative mating among all closely related, sympatric species that differed phenotypically, but none between the distantly related allopatric populations of more similar phenotype. Phenotypic distance between species was a good predictor of the strength of premating isolation, suggesting that assortative mating can evolve rapidly in association with ecological divergence during adaptive radiation. Our data also reveals that distantly related allopatric populations that have not diverged phenotypically, may hybridize when coming into secondary contact, e.g. upon river capture because of diversion of drainage systems.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.

Statistical evaluation of the reproducibility and the influence of paper on the analysis of black gel pen ink using laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry

Laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) has demonstrated to be an excellent analytical method for the forensic analysis of inks on a questioned document. The ink can be analysed directly on its substrate (paper) and hence offers a fast method of analysis as sample preparation is kept to a minimum and more importantly, damage to the document is minimised. LDI-MS has also previously been reported to provide a high power of discrimination in the statistical comparison of ink samples and has the potential to be introduced as part of routine ink analysis. This paper looks into the methodology further and evaluates statistically the reproducibility and the influence of paper on black gel pen ink LDI-MS spectra; by comparing spectra of three different black gel pen inks on three different paper substrates. Although generally minimal, the influences of sample homogeneity and paper type were found to be sample dependent. This should be taken into account to avoid the risk of false differentiation of black gel pen ink samples. Other statistical approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) proved to be a good alternative to correlation coefficients for the comparison of whole mass spectra.

Detection of ingested cocaine-filled packets: comparison of filtered back projection CT with adaptive statistical iterative reconstructed images

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value and image quality of CT with filtered back projection (FBP) compared with adaptive statistical iterative reconstructed images (ASIR) in body stuffers with ingested cocaine-filled packets.Methods and Materials: Twenty-nine body stuffers (mean age 31.9 years, 3 women) suspected for ingestion of cocaine-filled packets underwent routine-dose 64-row multidetector CT with FBP (120kV, pitch 1.375, 100-300 mA and automatic tube current modulation (auto mA), rotation time 0.7sec, collimation 2.5mm), secondarily reconstructed with 30 % and 60 % ASIR. In 13 (44.83%) out of the body stuffers cocaine-filled packets were detected, confirmed by exact analysis of the faecal content including verification of the number (range 1-25). Three radiologists independently and blindly evaluated anonymous CT examinations (29 FBP-CT and 68 ASIR-CT) for the presence and number of cocaine-filled packets indicating observers' confidence, and graded them for diagnostic quality, image noise, and sharpness. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) Az and interobserver agreement between the 3 radiologists for FBP-CT and ASIR-CT were calculated.Results: The increase of the percentage of ASIR significantly diminished the objective image noise (p<0.001). Overall sensitivity and specificity for the detection of the cocaine-filled packets were 87.72% and 76.15%, respectively. The difference of ROC area Az between the different reconstruction techniques was significant (p= 0.0101), that is 0.938 for FBP-CT, 0.916 for 30 % ASIR-CT, and 0.894 for 60 % ASIR-CT.Conclusion: Despite the evident image noise reduction obtained by ASIR, the diagnostic value for detecting cocaine-filled packets decreases, depending on the applied ASIR percentage.

Modern statistical models for forensic fingerprint examinations : a critical review

Over the last decade, the development of statistical models in support of forensic fingerprint identification has been the subject of increasing research attention, spurned on recently by commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. Such models are increasingly seen as useful tools in support of the fingerprint identification process within or in addition to the ACE-V framework. This paper provides a critical review of recent statistical models from both a practical and theoretical perspective. This includes analysis of models of two different methodologies: Probability of Random Correspondence (PRC) models that focus on calculating probabilities of the occurrence of fingerprint configurations for a given population, and Likelihood Ratio (LR) models which use analysis of corresponding features of fingerprints to derive a likelihood value representing the evidential weighting for a potential source.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Evaluation of a mixed approach combining stationary and wearable systems to monitor gait over long distance.

Thanks to decades of research, gait analysis has become an efficient tool. However, mainly due to the price of the motion capture systems, standard gait laboratories have the capability to measure only a few consecutive steps of ground walking. Recently, wearable systems were proposed to measure human motion without volume limitation. Although accurate, these systems are incompatible with most of existing calibration procedures and several years of research will be necessary for their validation. A new approach consisting of using a stationary system with a small capture volume for the calibration procedure and then to measure gait using a wearable system could be very advantageous. It could benefit from the knowledge related to stationary systems, allow long distance monitoring and provide new descriptive parameters. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of this approach. Thus, a combined system was proposed to measure the 3D lower body joints angles and segmental angular velocities. It was then assessed in terms of reliability towards the calibration procedure, repeatability and concurrent validity. The dispersion of the joint angles across calibrations was comparable to those of stationary systems and good reliability was obtained for the angular velocities. The repeatability results confirmed that mean cycle kinematics of long distance walks could be used for subjects' comparison and pointed out an interest for the variability between cycles. Finally, kinematics differences were observed between participants with different ankle conditions. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the potential of a mixed approach for human movement analysis.

Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.