Evaluation du risque de récidive dans les expertises pénales: quels outils? Quets indicateurs? Quelles pratiques [Risk assessment in forensic psychiatric reports: what kind assessment instrument? What indicator? What practical?].

Here we present results of studies conducted by the Research Unit of Legal Psychiatry and Psychology of Lausanne about risk assessment and protective factors in the evaluation of violence recidivism. It aims to help experts in considering the relevance and use of tools at their disposal. Particular attention is given to the significance of protective factors and impulsive dimensions, as to the inter-raters process that leads to the final deliberations.

EEG as an Indicator of Cerebral Functioning in Postanoxic Coma.

Postanoxic coma after cardiac arrest is one of the most serious acute cerebral conditions and a frequent cause of admission to critical care units. Given substantial improvement of outcome over the recent years, a reliable and timely assessment of clinical evolution and prognosis is essential in this context, but may be challenging. In addition to the classic neurologic examination, EEG is increasingly emerging as an important tool to assess cerebral functions noninvasively. Although targeted temperature management and related sedation may delay clinical assessment, EEG provides accurate prognostic information in the early phase of coma. Here, the most frequently encountered EEG patterns in postanoxic coma are summarized and their relations with outcome prediction are discussed. This article also addresses the influence of targeted temperature management on brain signals and the implication of the evolution of EEG patterns over time. Finally, the article ends with a view of the future prospects for EEG in postanoxic management and prognostication.

Long-term citalopram administration reduces responsiveness of HPA axis in patients with major depression: relationship with S-citalopram concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and clinical response.

RATIONALE: A dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is a well-documented neurobiological finding in major depression. Moreover, clinically effective therapy with antidepressant drugs may normalize the HPA axis activity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test whether citalopram (R/S-CIT) affects the function of the HPA axis in patients with major depression (DSM IV). METHODS: Twenty depressed patients (11 women and 9 men) were challenged with a combined dexamethasone (DEX) suppression and corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) stimulation test (DEX/CRH test) following a placebo week and after 2, 4, and 16 weeks of 40 mg/day R/S-CIT treatment. RESULTS: The results show a time-dependent reduction of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol response during the DEX/CRH test both in treatment responders and nonresponders within 16 weeks. There was a significant relationship between post-DEX baseline cortisol levels (measured before administration of CRH) and severity of depression at pretreatment baseline. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of psychopathology and hormonal stress responsiveness and R/S-CIT concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The magnitude of decrease in cortisol responsivity from pretreatment baseline to week 4 on drug [delta-area under the curve (AUC) cortisol] was a significant predictor (p<0.0001) of the degree of symptom improvement following 16 weeks on drug (i.e., decrease in HAM-D21 total score). The model demonstrated that the interaction of CSF S-CIT concentrations and clinical improvement was the most powerful predictor of AUC cortisol responsiveness. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that decreased AUC cortisol was highly associated with S-CIT concentrations in plasma and CSF. Therefore, our data suggest that the CSF or plasma S-CIT concentrations rather than the R/S-CIT dose should be considered as an indicator of the selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) effect on HPA axis responsiveness as measured by AUC cortisol response.

Host factors and genetic susceptibility to infections due to intracellular bacteria and fastidious organisms.

While genetic polymorphisms play a paramount role in tuberculosis (TB), less is known about their contribution to the severity of diseases caused by other intracellular bacteria and fastidious microorganisms. We searched electronic databases for observational studies reporting on host factors and genetic predisposition to infections caused by intracellular fastidious bacteria published up to 30 May 2014. The contribution of genetic polymorphisms was documented for TB. This includes genetic defects in the mononuclear phagocyte/T helper cell type 1 (Th1) pathway contributing to disseminated TB disease in children and genome-wide linkage analysis (GWAS) in reactivated pulmonary TB in adults. Similarly, experimental studies supported the role of host genetic factors in the clinical presentation of illnesses resulting from other fastidious intracellular bacteria. These include IL-6 -174G/C or low mannose-binding (MBL) polymorphisms, which are incriminated in chronic pulmonary conditions triggered by C. pneumoniae, type 2-like cytokine secretion polymorphisms, which are correlated with various clinical patterns of M. pneumoniae infections, and genetic variation in the NOD2 gene, which is an indicator of tubal pathology resulting from Chamydia trachomatis infections. Monocyte/macrophage migration and T lymphocyte recruitment defects are corroborated to ineffective granuloma formation observed among patients with chronic Q fever. Similar genetic polymorphisms have also been suggested for infections caused by T. whipplei although not confirmed yet. In conclusion, this review supports the paramount role of genetic factors in clinical presentations and severity of infections caused by intracellular fastidious bacteria. Genetic predisposition should be further explored through such as exome sequencing.

Diabetes care in Switzerland: good, but perfectible: a population-based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: While Switzerland invests a lot of money in its healthcare system, little is known about the quality of care delivered. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of care provided to patients with diabetes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 406 non-institutionalized adults with type 1 or 2 diabetes. Patients' characteristics, diabetes and process of care indicators were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Process indicators (past 12 months) included HbA1C check among HbA1C-aware patients, eye assessment by ophtalmologist, microalbuminuria check, feet examination, lipid test, blood pressure and weight measurement, influenza immunization, physical activity recommendations, and dietary recommendations. Item-by-item (each process of care indicator: percentage of patients having received it), composite (mean percentage of recommended care: sum of received processes of care / sum of possible recommended care), and all-or-none (percentage of patients receiving all specified recommended care) measures were computed. RESULTS: Mean age was 64.4 years; 59% were men. Type 1 and type 2 diabetes were reported by 18.2% and 68.5% of patients, respectively, but diabetes type remained undetermined for almost 20% of patients. Patients were treated with oral anti-diabetic drugs (50%), insulin (23%) or both (27%). Of 219 HbA1C-aware patients, 98% reported ≥ one HbA1C check during the last year. Also, ≥94% reported ≥ one blood pressure measurement, ≥ one weight measurement or lipid test, and 68%, 64% and 56% had feet examination, microalbuminuria check and eye assessment, respectively. Influenza immunization was reported by 62% of the patients.The percentage of patients receiving all processes of care ranged between 14.2%-16.9%, and 46.6%-50.7%, when considering ten and four indicators, respectively. Ambulatory care utilization showed little use of multidisciplinary care, and low levels of participation in diabetes-education classes. CONCLUSIONS: While routine processes-of-care were performed annually in most patients, diabetes-specific risk screenings, influenza immunization, physical activity and dietary recommendations were less often reported; this was also the case for multidisciplinary care and participation in education classes. There is room for diabetes care improvement in Switzerland. These results should help define priorities and further develop country-specific chronic disease management initiatives for diabetes.

Predicting hematologic toxicity in patients undergoing radioimmunotherapy with 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or 131I-tositumomab.

This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

IV thrombolysis and renal function.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of renal impairment on functional outcome and complications in stroke patients treated with IV thrombolysis (IVT). METHODS: In this observational study, we compared the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with poor 3-month outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 3-6), death, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) based on the criteria of the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II trial. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Patients without IVT treatment served as a comparison group. RESULTS: Among 4,780 IVT-treated patients, 1,217 (25.5%) had a low GFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). A GFR decrease by 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) increased the risk of poor outcome (OR [95% CI]): (ORunadjusted 1.20 [1.17-1.24]; ORadjusted 1.05 [1.01-1.09]), death (ORunadjusted 1.33 [1.28-1.38]; ORadjusted 1.18 [1.11-1.249]), and sICH (ORunadjusted 1.15 [1.01-1.22]; ORadjusted 1.11 [1.04-1.20]). Low GFR was independently associated with poor 3-month outcome (ORadjusted 1.32 [1.10-1.58]), death (ORadjusted 1.73 [1.39-2.14]), and sICH (ORadjusted 1.64 [1.21-2.23]) compared with normal GFR (60-120 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Low GFR (ORadjusted 1.64 [1.21-2.23]) and stroke severity (ORadjusted 1.05 [1.03-1.07]) independently determined sICH. Compared with patients who did not receive IVT, treatment with IVT in patients with low GFR was associated with poor outcome (ORadjusted 1.79 [1.41-2.25]), and with favorable outcome in those with normal GFR (ORadjusted 0.77 [0.63-0.94]). CONCLUSION: Renal function significantly modified outcome and complication rates in IVT-treated stroke patients. Lower GFR might be a better risk indicator for sICH than age. A decrease of GFR by 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) seems to have a similar impact on the risk of death or sICH as a 1-point-higher NIH Stroke Scale score measuring stroke severity.

Endocrine response and perceived stress test during an experimental challenge task in adult survivors of a childhood cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term implications of cancer in childhood or adolescence with regard to medical conditions are well documented, the impact on mental health and on response to stress, which may be an indicator of psychological vulnerability, is not yet well understood. In this study, psychological and physiological responses to stress were examined.¦PROCEDURE: Fifty-three participants aged 18-39 years (n = 25 survivors of childhood or adolescence cancer, n = 28 controls) underwent an experimental stress test, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Participants were asked to provide repeated evaluations of perceived stress on visual-analogical scales and blood samples were collected before and after the TSST to measure plasma cortisol.¦RESULTS: The psychological perception of stress was not different between the two groups. However, the cancer survivors group showed a higher global plasma cortisol level as well as higher amplitude in the response to the TSST. The global cortisol level in cancer survivors was increased when depression symptoms were present. The subjective perception of stress and the plasma cortisol levels were only marginally correlated in both groups.¦CONCLUSIONS: It is suggested that the exposure to a life-threatening experience in childhood/adolescence increases the endocrine response to stress, and that the presence of depressive symptoms is associated with an elevation of plasma cortisol levels. A better knowledge of these mechanisms is important given that the dysregulations of the stress responses may cause psychological vulnerability. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2012; 59: 138-143. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevalence of frailty indicators and association with socioeconomic status in middle-aged and older adults in a swiss region with universal health insurance coverage : a population-based cross-sectional study

Frailty prevalence in older adults has been reported but is largely unknown in middle-aged adults. We determined the prevalence of frailty indicators among middle-aged and older adults from a general Swiss population characterized by universal health insurance coverage and assessed the determinants of frailty with a special focus on socioeconomic status. Participants aged 50 and more from the population-based 2006-2010 Bus Santé study were included (N = 2,930). Four frailty indicators (weakness, shrinking, exhaustion, and low activity) were measured according to standard definitions. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine associations. Overall, 63.5%, 28.7%, and 7.8% participants presented no frailty indicators, one frailty indicator, and two or more frailty indicators, respectively. Among middle-aged participants (50-65 years), 75.1%, 22.2%, and 2.7% presented 0, 1, and 2 or more frailty indicators. The number of frailty indicators was positively associated with age, hypertension, and current smoking and negatively associated with male gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and serum total cholesterol level. Lower income level but not education was associated with higher number of frailty indicators. Frailty indicators are frequently encountered in both older and middle-aged adults from the Swiss general population. Despite universal health insurance coverage, household income is independently associated with frailty.

Measuring the diffusion of palliative care in long-term care facilities - a death census

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The dissemination of palliative care for patients presenting complex chronic diseases at various stages has become an important matter of public health. A death census in Swiss long-term care facilities (LTC) was set up with the aim of monitoring the frequency of selected indicators of palliative care. METHODS: The survey covered 150 LTC facilities (105 nursing homes and 45 home health services), each of which was asked to complete a questionnaire for every non-accidental death over a period of six months. The frequency of 4 selected indicators of palliative care (resort to a specialized palliative care service, the administration of opiates, use of any pain measurement scale or other symptom measurement scale) was monitored in respect of the stages of care and analysed based on gender, age, medical condition and place of residence. RESULTS: Overall, 1200 deaths were reported, 29.1% of which were related to cancer. The frequencies of each indicator varied according to the type of LTC, mostly regarding the administration of opiate. It appeared that the access to palliative care remained associated with cancer, terminal care and partly with age, whereas gender and the presence of mental disorders had no effect on the indicators. In addition, the use of drugs was much more frequent than the other indicators. CONCLUSION: The profile of patients with access to palliative care must become more diversified. Among other recommendations, equal access to opiates in nursing homes and in home health services, palliative care at an earlier stage and the systematic use of symptom management scales when resorting to opiates have to become of prime concern.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Health care supply, payment system and medical practice : evidence from obstetric practice

ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.

Communication during brief intervention, intention to change, and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between patient's intention to change regarding future alcohol consumption following brief alcohol intervention (BAI) and changes in alcohol consumption 12-months later and the communication characteristics between patient and counselor during BAI. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Data from 367 patients (experimental arm) of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial were used to assess the effectiveness of BAI among hazardous drinkers attending an Emergency Department (Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland). Alcohol outcome measures at baseline and 12 months follow-up included usual number of drinks per week, monthly frequency of heavy episodic drinking (5 or more standard drinks for men; 4 or more for women), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score. In addition, the communication characteristics between patient and counselor were analyzed via tape recordings using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC) from 97 participants. Patient readiness and importance to change on a 10-point Likert scale (readiness/importance to change ruler) was asked during BAI, and patient intention to change alcohol consumption (yes/no) was asked at the last step. Differences in alcohol outcome at follow-up between the 367 patients who did or did not have an intention to change consumption at baseline were compared, as were differences between these two groups in communication characteristics for the 97 who completed tape recordings. RESULTS: Patients with an intention to decrease alcohol consumption reduced alcohol use and related problems more often, and reported higher levels of importance and readiness to change than did their counterparts. Analyses of MISC-coded data showed a significantly higher use of MI-consistent skills among those with a moderation intention, but no group differences on the 8 other counselor communication skills measures were found. Analyses of patient speech during the intervention indicated that those with an intention to change their alcohol consumption significantly more often self-explored personal ambivalence towards alcohol, expressed more intensely their ability, commitment, desire, need and reason to change their alcohol use than did those in the no decrease group. CONCLUSIONS: The intention expressed by hazardous drinkers when concluding BAI is associated with both patient change talk during BAI and drinking outcome 12 months later, but is mainly independent of counselor communication skills. This intention may be an important clinical indicator of which hazardous drinkers are most likely to improve after BAI.

Les symbioses agro-industrielles en Afrique de l'Ouest : évaluation du potentiel d'une nouvelle stratégie pour un développement durable

RésuméCette thèse traite de l'utilisation des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement et étudie le potentiel de cette stratégie pour stimuler un développement régional durable dans les zones rurales d'Afrique de l'Ouest. En particulier, lorsqu'une Symbiose Industrielle est instaurée entre une usine et sa population alentour, des outils d'évaluation sont nécessaires pour garantir que le projet permette d'atteindre un réel développement durable. Les outils existants, développés dans les pays industrialisés, ne sont cependant pas complètement adaptés pour l'évaluation de projets dans les pays en développement. En effet, les outils sont porteurs d'hypothèses implicites propres au contexte socio-économique dans lequel ils ont été conçus.L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour l'évaluation de la durabilité de projets de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement.Pour ce faire, je m'appuie sur une étude de cas de la mise en place d'une Symbiose Industrielle au nord du Nigéria, à laquelle j'ai participé en tant qu'observatrice dès 2007. AshakaCem, une usine productrice de ciment du groupe Lafarge, doit faire face à de nombreuses tensions avec la population rurale alentour. L'entreprise a donc décidé d'adopter une nouvelle méthode inspirée des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle. Le projet consiste à remplacer jusqu'à 10% du carburant fossile utilisé pour la cuisson de la matière crue (calcaire et additifs) par de la biomasse produite par les paysans locaux. Pour ne pas compromettre la fragile sécurité alimentaire régionale, des techniques de lutte contre l'érosion et de fertilisation naturelle des sols sont enseignées aux paysans, qui peuvent ainsi utiliser la culture de biomasse pour améliorer leurs cultures vivrières. A travers cette Symbiose Industrielle, l'entreprise poursuit des objectifs sociaux (poser les bases nécessaires à un développement régional), mais également environnementaux (réduire ses émissions de CO2 globales) et économiques (réduire ses coûts énergétiques). Elle s'ancre ainsi dans une perspective de développement durable qui est conditionnelle à la réalisation du projet.A travers l'observation de cette Symbiose et par la connaissance des outils existants je constate qu'une évaluation de la durabilité de projets dans les pays en développement nécessite l'utilisation de critères d'évaluation propres à chaque projet. En effet, dans ce contexte, l'emploi de critères génériques apporte une évaluation trop éloignée des besoins et de la réalité locale. C'est pourquoi, en m'inspirant des outils internationalement reconnus comme l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie ou la Global Reporting Initiative, je définis dans cette thèse un cadre méthodologique qui peut, lui, être identique pour tous les projets. Cette stratégie suit six étapes, qui se réalisent de manière itérative pour permettre une auto¬amélioration de la méthodologie d'évaluation et du projet lui-même. Au cours de ces étapes, les besoins et objectifs en termes sociaux, économiques et environnementaux des différents acteurs sont déterminés, puis regroupés, hiérarchisés et formulés sous forme de critères à évaluer. Des indicateurs quantitatifs ou qualitatifs sont ensuite définis pour chacun de ces critères. Une des spécificités de cette stratégie est de définir une échelle d'évaluation en cinq graduations, identique pour chaque indicateur, témoignant d'un objectif totalement atteint (++) ou pas du tout atteint (--).L'application de ce cadre méthodologique à la Symbiose nigériane a permis de déterminer quatre critères économiques, quatre critères socio-économiques et six critères environnementaux à évaluer. Pour les caractériser, 22 indicateurs ont été définis. L'évaluation de ces indicateurs a permis de montrer que le projet élaboré atteint les objectifs de durabilité fixés pour la majorité des critères. Quatre indicateurs ont un résultat neutre (0), et un cinquième montre qu'un critère n'est pas atteint (--). Ces résultats s'expliquent par le fait que le projet n'en est encore qu'à sa phase pilote et n'a donc pas encore atteint la taille et la diffusion optimales. Un suivi sur plusieurs années permettra de garantir que ces manques seront comblés.Le cadre méthodologique que j'ai développé dans cette thèse est un outil d'évaluation participatif qui pourra être utilisé dans un contexte plus large que celui des pays en développement. Son caractère générique en fait un très bon outil pour la définition de critères et indicateurs de suivi de projet en terme de développement durable.SummaryThis thesis examines the use of industrial symbiosis in developing countries and studies its potential to stimulate sustainable regional development in rural areas across Western Africa. In particular, when industrial symbiosis is instituted between a factory and the surrounding population, evaluation tools are required to ensure the project achieves truly sustainable development. Existing tools developed in industrialized countries are not entirely suited to assessing projects in developing countries. Indeed, the implicit hypotheses behind such tools reflect the socioeconomic context in which they were designed. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for evaluating the sustainability of industrial symbiosis projects in developing countries.To accomplish this, I followed a case study about the implementation of industrial symbiosis in northern Nigeria by participating as an observer since 2007. AshakaCem, a cement works of Lafarge group, must confront many issues associated with violence committed by the local rural population. Thus, the company decided to adopt a new approach inspired by the concepts of industrial symbiosis.The project involves replacing up to 10% of the fossil fuel used to heat limestone with biomass produced by local farmers. To avoid jeopardizing the fragile security of regional food supplies, farmers are taught ways to combat erosion and naturally fertilize the soil. They can then use biomass cultivation to improve their subsistence crops. Through this industrial symbiosis, AshakaCem follows social objectives (to lay the necessary foundations for regional development), but also environmental ones (to reduce its overall CO2 emissions) and economical ones (to reduce its energy costs). The company is firmly rooted in a view of sustainable development that is conditional upon the project's execution.By observing this symbiosis and by being familiar with existing tools, I note that assessing the sustainability of projects in developing countries requires using evaluation criteria that are specific to each project. Indeed, using generic criteria results in an assessment that is too far removed from what is needed and from the local reality. Thus, by drawing inspiration from such internationally known tools as Life Cycle Analysis and the Global Reporting Initiative, I define a generic methodological framework for the participative establishment of an evaluation methodology specific to each project.The strategy follows six phases that are fulfilled iteratively so as to improve the evaluation methodology and the project itself as it moves forward. During these phases, the social, economic, and environmental needs and objectives of the stakeholders are identified, grouped, ranked, and expressed as criteria for evaluation. Quantitative or qualitative indicators are then defined for each of these criteria. One of the characteristics of this strategy is to define a five-point evaluation scale, the same for each indicator, to reflect a goal that was completely reached (++) or not reached at all (--).Applying the methodological framework to the Nigerian symbiosis yielded four economic criteria, four socioeconomic criteria, and six environmental criteria to assess. A total of 22 indicators were defined to characterize the criteria. Evaluating these indicators made it possible to show that the project meets the sustainability goals set for the majority of criteria. Four indicators had a neutral result (0); a fifth showed that one criterion had not been met (--). These results can be explained by the fact that the project is still only in its pilot phase and, therefore, still has not reached its optimum size and scope. Following up over several years will make it possible to ensure these gaps will be filled.The methodological framework presented in this thesis is a highly effective tool that can be used in a broader context than developing countries. Its generic nature makes it a very good tool for defining criteria and follow-up indicators for sustainable development.