Accuracy of plant assemblage predictions from species distribution models varies along environmental gradients

Aim: Climatic niche modelling of species and community distributions implicitly assumes strong and constant climatic determinism across geographic space. This assumption had however never been tested so far. We tested it by assessing how stacked-species distribution models (S-SDMs) perform for predicting plant species assemblages along elevation. Location: Western Swiss Alps. Methods: Using robust presence-absence data, we first assessed the ability of topo-climatic S-SDMs to predict plant assemblages in a study area encompassing a 2800 m wide elevation gradient. We then assessed the relationships among several evaluation metrics and trait-based tests of community assembly rules. Results: The standard errors of individual SDMs decreased significantly towards higher elevations. Overall, the S-SDM overpredicted far more than they underpredicted richness and could not reproduce the humpback curve along elevation. Overprediction was greater at low and mid-range elevations in absolute values but greater at high elevations when standardised by the actual richness. Looking at species composition, the evaluation metrics accounting for both the presence and absence of species (overall prediction success and kappa) or focusing on correctly predicted absences (specificity) increased with increasing elevation, while the metrics focusing on correctly predicted presences (Jaccard index and sensitivity) decreased. The best overall evaluation - as driven by specificity - occurred at high elevation where species assemblages were shown to be under significant environmental filtering of small plants. In contrast, the decreased overall accuracy in the lowlands was associated with functional patterns representing any type of assembly rule (environmental filtering, limiting similarity or null assembly). Main Conclusions: Our study reveals interesting patterns of change in S-SDM errors with changes in assembly rules along elevation. Yet, significant levels of assemblage prediction errors occurred throughout the gradient, calling for further improvement of SDMs, e.g., by adding key environmental filters that act at fine scales and developing approaches to account for variations in the influence of predictors along environmental gradients.

Etudiants en médecine et centres médico-sociaux: préparer l'avenir [Medical students and community health care centers: preparing the future].

Since 2011, second year medical students from Lausanne University follow a single day course in the community health care centers of the Canton of Vaud. They discover the medico-social network and attend to patients' visits at home. They experience the importance of the information transmission and the partnership between informal caregivers, professional caregivers, general practitioner and hospital units. The goal of this course is to help the future physicians to collaborate with the community health care centers teams. This will be particularly important in the future with an aging and more dependant population.

Comparison of hospital-wide and unit-specific cumulative antibiograms in hospital- and community-acquired infection.

BACKGROUND: Empirical antibacterial therapy in hospitals is usually guided by local epidemiologic features reflected by institutional cumulative antibiograms. We investigated additional information inferred by aggregating cumulative antibiograms by type of unit or according to the place of acquisition (i.e. community vs. hospital) of the bacteria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Antimicrobial susceptibility rates of selected pathogens were collected over a 4-year period in an university-affiliated hospital. Hospital-wide antibiograms were compared with those selected by type of unit and sampling time (<48 or >48 h after hospital admission). RESULTS: Strains isolated >48 h after admission were less susceptible than those presumably arising from the community (<48 h). The comparison of units revealed significant differences among strains isolated >48 h after admission. When compared to hospital-wide antibiograms, susceptibility rates were lower in the ICU and surgical units for Escherichia coli to amoxicillin-clavulanate, enterococci to penicillin, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa to anti-pseudomonal beta-lactams, and in medical units for Staphylococcus aureus to oxacillin. In contrast, few differences were observed among strains isolated within 48 h of admission. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-wide antibiograms reflect the susceptibility pattern for a specific unit with respect to community-acquired, but not to hospital-acquired strains. Antibiograms adjusted to these parameters may be useful in guiding the choice of empirical antibacterial therapy.

Heart failure and community-acquired pneumonia: cases for home hospital?

BACKGROUND: Home hospital is advocated in many western countries in spite of limited evidence of its economic advantage over usual hospital care. Heart failure and community-acquired pneumonia are two medical conditions which are frequently targeted by home hospital programs. While recent trials were devoted to comparisons of safety and costs, the acceptance of home hospital for patients with these conditions remains poorly described. OBJECTIVE: To document the medical eligibility and final transfer decision to home hospital for patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of heart failure or community-acquired pneumonia. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of patients admitted to the medical ward of acute care hospitals, up to the final decision concerning their transfer. SETTING: Medical departments of one university hospital and two regional teaching Swiss hospitals. PATIENTS: All patients admitted over a 9 month period to the three settings with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (n= 301) or pneumonia (n=441). MEASUREMENTS: Presence of permanent exclusion criteria on admission; final decision of (in)eligibility based on medical criteria; final decision regarding the transfer, taking into account the opinions of the family physician, the patient and informal caregivers. RESULTS: While 27.9% of heart failure and 37.6% of pneumonia patients were considered to be eligible from a medical point of view, the program acceptance by family physicians, patients and informal caregivers was low and a transfer to home hospital was ultimately chosen for just 3.8% of heart failure and 9.6% of pneumonia patients. There were no major differences between the three settings. CONCLUSIONS: In the case of these two conditions, the potential economic advantage of home hospital over usual inpatient care is compromised by the low proportion of patients ultimately transferred.

Transition mutation in codon 248 of the p53 tumor suppressor gene induced by reactive oxygen species and a nitric oxide-releasing compound.

Exposing the human bronchial epithelial cell line BEAS-2B to the nitric oxide (NO) donor sodium 1-(N,N-diethylamino)diazen-1-ium-1, 2-diolate (DEA/NO) at an initial concentration of 0.6 mM while generating superoxide ion at the rate of 1 microM/min with the hypoxanthine/xanthine oxidase (HX/XO) system induced C:G-->T:A transition mutations in codon 248 of the p53 gene. This pattern of mutagenicity was not seen by 'fish-restriction fragment length polymorphism/polymerase chain reaction' (fish-RFLP/PCR) on exposure to DEA/NO alone, however, exposure to HX/XO led to various mutations, suggesting that co-generation of NO and superoxide was responsible for inducing the observed point mutation. DEA/NO potentiated the ability of HX/XO to induce lipid peroxidation as well as DNA single- and double-strand breaks under these conditions, while 0.6 mM DEA/NO in the absence of HX/XO had no significant effect on these parameters. The results show that a point mutation seen at high frequency in certain common human tumors can be induced by simultaneous exposure to reactive oxygen species and a NO source.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

Linking genetic and species diversities in a community of freshwater gastropods

Summary Biodiversity is usually studied through species or genetic diversities. To date, these two levels of diversity have remained the independent .fields of investigations of community ecologists and population geneticists. However, recent joint analyses of species and genetic diversities have suggested that common processes may underlie the two levels. Positive correlations between species diversity and genetic diversity may arise when the effects of drift and migration overwhelm selective effects. The first goal of this thesis was to make a joint investigation of the patterns of species and genetic diversity in a community of freshwater gastropods living in a floodplain habitat. The second goal was to determine, as far as possible, the relative influences of the processes underlying the patterns observed at each level. In chapter 2 we investigate the relative influences of different evolutionary forces in shaping the genetic structure of Radix balthica populations. Results revealed that the structure inferred using quantitative traits was lower or equal to the one inferred using neutral molecular markers. Consequently, the pattern of structure observed could be only due to random drift, possibly to uniform selection, but definitely not to selection for local optima. In chapter 3, we analyze the temporal variation of species and genetic diversities in five localities. An extended period of drought occurred at the end of the study period leading to decay of both species and genetic diversities. This parallel loss of diversity following a natural perturbation highlighted the role sometimes predominant of random drift over selection on patterns of biodiversity in a floodplain habitat. In chapter 4, we compare the spatial genetic structures of two sympatric species: Radix balthica and Planorbis carinatus. We found that R. balthica populations are weakly structured and have moderate to high values of gene diversity. In contrast, P. carinatus populations are highly structured and poorly diverse. Then we measured correlations between various indices of species and genetic diversity using genetic data .from the two species. We found only one significant correlation: between species richness and gene diversity of P. carinatus. This result highlights the .need to use genetic date from more than one species to infer correlations between species and genetic diversities. Overall, this thesis provided new insights into the common processes underlying patterns of species and genetic diversity. Résumé La biodiversité est généralement étudiée au niveau de la diversité génétique ou spécifique. Ces deux niveaux sont restés jusqu'à maintenant les domaines d'investigation séparés des généticiens des populations et des écologistes des communautés. Cependant, des analyses conjointes des diversités génétique et spécifique ont récemment suggéré que des processus similaires pouvaient influencer ces deux niveaux. Des corrélations positives entre les diversités génétique et spécifique pourraient être dues aux effets de migration et de dérive qui dominent les effets sélectifs. Le premier but de cette thèse était de faire une étude conjointe des diversités génétique et spécifique dans une communauté de gastéropodes d'eau douce. Le second objectif était de déterminer les influences relatives des différents processus liés à chaque niveau de diversité. Dans le chapitre 2 nous cherchons à déterminer quelles forces évolutives influencent la structure génétique de quatre populations de Radix balthica. La structure mesurée sur des traits quantitatifs s'est révélée être plus faible ou égale à celle mesurée avec des marqueurs moléculaires neutres. La structure observée pourrait ainsi être due uniquement à la dérive génétique, potentiellement à la sélection uniforme, mais en aucun cas à la sélection locale pour différents optima. Dans le chapitre 3 nous analysons la variation temporelle des diversités génétique et spécifique dans cinq localités. Une récente période de sécheresse a causé une diminution parallèle des deux niveaux de diversité. Cette perturbation à mis en évidence le rôle parfois prépondérant de la dérive par rapport à celui de la sélection dans le déterminisme de la biodiversité dans un écosytème alluvial. Dans le chapitre 4, nous comparons la structure génétique spatiale de deux espèces vivant en sympatrie : Radix balthica et Planorbis carinatus. Les populations de R. balthica sont peu structurées et présentent un niveau de diversité relativement élevé alors que celles de P. carinatus sont fortement structurées et peu diversifiées. Nous avons ensuite mesuré différentes corrélations entre les diversités génétique et spécifique, mais la seule relation significative a été trouvée entre la richesse spécifique et la diversité génétique de P. carinatus. Ainsi, cette thèse a permis de découvrir de nouveaux aspects des processus qui influencent en parallèle la diversité aux niveaux génétique et spécifique.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant species richness: a comparison of direct macroecological and species stacking approaches

Aim This study compares the direct, macroecological approach (MEM) for modelling species richness (SR) with the more recent approach of stacking predictions from individual species distributions (S-SDM). We implemented both approaches on the same dataset and discuss their respective theoretical assumptions, strengths and drawbacks. We also tested how both approaches performed in reproducing observed patterns of SR along an elevational gradient.Location Two study areas in the Alps of Switzerland.Methods We implemented MEM by relating the species counts to environmental predictors with statistical models, assuming a Poisson distribution. S-SDM was implemented by modelling each species distribution individually and then stacking the obtained prediction maps in three different ways - summing binary predictions, summing random draws of binomial trials and summing predicted probabilities - to obtain a final species count.Results The direct MEM approach yields nearly unbiased predictions centred around the observed mean values, but with a lower correlation between predictions and observations, than that achieved by the S-SDM approaches. This method also cannot provide any information on species identity and, thus, community composition. It does, however, accurately reproduce the hump-shaped pattern of SR observed along the elevational gradient. The S-SDM approach summing binary maps can predict individual species and thus communities, but tends to overpredict SR. The two other S-SDM approaches the summed binomial trials based on predicted probabilities and summed predicted probabilities - do not overpredict richness, but they predict many competing end points of assembly or they lose the individual species predictions, respectively. Furthermore, all S-SDM approaches fail to appropriately reproduce the observed hump-shaped patterns of SR along the elevational gradient.Main conclusions Macroecological approach and S-SDM have complementary strengths. We suggest that both could be used in combination to obtain better SR predictions by following the suggestion of constraining S-SDM by MEM predictions.

Parallel changes in genetic diversity and species diversity following a natural disturbance.

We examined the spatial and temporal variation of species diversity and genetic diversity in a metacommunity comprising 16 species of freshwater gastropods. We monitored species abundance at five localities of the Ain river floodplain in southeastern France, over a period of four years. Using 190 AFLP loci, we monitored the genetic diversity of Radix balthica, one of the most abundant gastropod species of the metacommunity, twice during that period. An exceptionally intense drought occurred during the last two years and differentially affected the study sites. This allowed us to test the effect of natural disturbances on changes in both genetic and species diversity. Overall, local (alpha) diversity declined as reflected by lower values of gene diversity H(S) and evenness. In parallel, the among-sites (beta) diversity increased at both the genetic (F(ST)) and species (F(STC)) levels. These results suggest that disturbances can lead to similar changes in genetic and community structure through the combined effects of selective and neutral processes.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level

1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

Molecular detection and identification of zygomycetes species from paraffin-embedded tissues in a murine model of disseminated zygomycosis: a collaborative European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Fungal Infection Study Group (EFISG) evaluation.

The present study was performed to assess the interlaboratory reproducibility of the molecular detection and identification of species of Zygomycetes from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded kidney and brain tissues obtained from experimentally infected mice. Animals were infected with one of five species (Rhizopus oryzae, Rhizopus microsporus, Lichtheimia corymbifera, Rhizomucor pusillus, and Mucor circinelloides). Samples with 1, 10, or 30 slide cuts of the tissues were prepared from each paraffin block, the sample identities were blinded for analysis, and the samples were mailed to each of seven laboratories for the assessment of sensitivity. A protocol describing the extraction method and the PCR amplification procedure was provided. The internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) region was amplified by PCR with the fungal universal primers ITS1 and ITS2 and sequenced. As negative results were obtained for 93% of the tissue specimens infected by M. circinelloides, the data for this species were excluded from the analysis. Positive PCR results were obtained for 93% (52/56), 89% (50/56), and 27% (15/56) of the samples with 30, 10, and 1 slide cuts, respectively. There were minor differences, depending on the organ tissue, fungal species, and laboratory. Correct species identification was possible for 100% (30 cuts), 98% (10 cuts), and 93% (1 cut) of the cases. With the protocol used in the present study, the interlaboratory reproducibility of ITS sequencing for the identification of major Zygomycetes species from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues can reach 100%, when enough material is available.

Break zones in the distributions of alleles and species in alpine plants

Aim  We test for the congruence between allele-based range boundaries (break zones) in silicicolous alpine plants and species-based break zones in the silicicolous flora of the European Alps. We also ask whether such break zones coincide with areas of large elevational variation.Location  The European Alps.Methods  On a regular grid laid across the entire Alps, we determined areas of allele- and species-based break zones using respective clustering algorithms, identifying discontinuities in cluster distributions (breaks), and quantifying integrated break densities (break zones). Discontinuities were identified based on the intra-specific genetic variation of 12 species and on the floristic distribution data from 239 species, respectively. Coincidence between the two types of break zones was tested using Spearman's correlation. Break zone densities were also regressed on topographical complexity to test for the effect of elevational variation.Results  We found that two main break zones in the distribution of alleles and species were significantly correlated. Furthermore, we show that these break zones are in topographically complex regions, characterized by massive elevational ranges owing to high mountains and deep glacial valleys. We detected a third break zone in the distribution of species in the eastern Alps, which is not correlated with topographic complexity, and which is also not evident from allelic distribution patterns. Species with the potential for long-distance dispersal tended to show larger distribution ranges than short-distance dispersers.Main conclusions  We suggest that the history of Pleistocene glaciations is the main driver of the congruence between allele-based and species-based distribution patterns, because occurrences of both species and alleles were subject to the same processes (such as extinction, migration and drift) that shaped the distributions of species and genetic lineages. Large elevational ranges have had a profound effect as a dispersal barrier for alleles during post-glacial immigration. Because plant species, unlike alleles, cannot spread via pollen but only via seed, and thus disperse less effectively, we conclude that species break zones are maintained over longer time spans and reflect more ancient patterns than allele break zones.Conny Thiel-Egenter and Nadir Alvarez contributed equally to this paper and are considered joint first authors.