21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Predictors of weight change in sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention

L'arrêt de la cigarette est généralement associé à une prise de poids. Celle-ci peut menacer la motivation des fumeurs à s'engager dans un processus d'arrêt du tabac et constitue un motif de rechute. L'ordre de grandeur et la cinétique de la prise de poids liée à une tentative d'arrêt chez les fumeurs pris en charge selon les recommandations cliniques actuelles est peu décrite dans la littérature médicale. Le but de cette étude était de quantifier cette prise de poids, d'en déterminer la cinétique ainsi que les facteurs qui l'influencent, chez des fumeurs sédentaires bénéficiant d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac individualisée, composée de conseils individuels et d'une substitution nicotinique associant plusieurs modes d'administration. Nous avons analysé des données récoltées durant un essai clinique randomisé contrôlé au cours duquel était étudié l'impact d'une activité physique modérée sur les taux d'arrêt du tabac après un an chez des fumeurs sédentaires. Nous avons modélisé l'évolution du poids de l'ensemble des participants au cours du temps, selon la technique statistique des « modèles mixtes longitudinaux ». En séparant les périodes d'abstinence de la cigarette de celles de rechute et de l'utilisation reportée de substituts nicotiniques. Cette approche nous a permis de prendre en compte chaque participant à l'étude, par opposition à un modèle plus simple qui séparerait les sujets abstinents de ceux qui rechutent à n'importe quel moment de la période de suivi. Nous avons également ajusté ces modèles pour l'âge, le sexe, le niveau de dépendance à la nicotine et le niveau de formation des participants. Parmi l'ensemble des participants, nous avons noté une augmentation du poids durant les trois premiers mois de l'intervention, suivie d'une stabilisation. Au total, la prise de poids moyenne s'est élevée à 3.3 kg pour les femmes et 3.9 kg pour les hommes. Durant les périodes d'abstinence, les caractéristiques suivantes étaient associées à la prise de poids : sexe masculin et forte dépendance nicotinique. Un âge supérieur à 43 ans était associé à une prise de poids également durant les périodes de rechute. Nous avons observé une tendance, non statistiquement significative, vers une réduction de la prise des poids avec l'utilisation de substituts nicotiniques. Notre étude apporte de nouvelles données sur l'évolution du poids chez les fumeurs sédentaires qui bénéficient d'une intervention d'aide à l'arrêt du tabac. Ils prennent donc du poids, de manière modérée et limitée aux premiers mois. Parmi eux, les hommes, les individus les plus dépendants à la nicotine et les plus âgés doivent s'attendre à une prise de poids supérieure à la moyenne.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Communication during brief intervention, intention to change, and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between patient's intention to change regarding future alcohol consumption following brief alcohol intervention (BAI) and changes in alcohol consumption 12-months later and the communication characteristics between patient and counselor during BAI. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Data from 367 patients (experimental arm) of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial were used to assess the effectiveness of BAI among hazardous drinkers attending an Emergency Department (Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland). Alcohol outcome measures at baseline and 12 months follow-up included usual number of drinks per week, monthly frequency of heavy episodic drinking (5 or more standard drinks for men; 4 or more for women), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score. In addition, the communication characteristics between patient and counselor were analyzed via tape recordings using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC) from 97 participants. Patient readiness and importance to change on a 10-point Likert scale (readiness/importance to change ruler) was asked during BAI, and patient intention to change alcohol consumption (yes/no) was asked at the last step. Differences in alcohol outcome at follow-up between the 367 patients who did or did not have an intention to change consumption at baseline were compared, as were differences between these two groups in communication characteristics for the 97 who completed tape recordings. RESULTS: Patients with an intention to decrease alcohol consumption reduced alcohol use and related problems more often, and reported higher levels of importance and readiness to change than did their counterparts. Analyses of MISC-coded data showed a significantly higher use of MI-consistent skills among those with a moderation intention, but no group differences on the 8 other counselor communication skills measures were found. Analyses of patient speech during the intervention indicated that those with an intention to change their alcohol consumption significantly more often self-explored personal ambivalence towards alcohol, expressed more intensely their ability, commitment, desire, need and reason to change their alcohol use than did those in the no decrease group. CONCLUSIONS: The intention expressed by hazardous drinkers when concluding BAI is associated with both patient change talk during BAI and drinking outcome 12 months later, but is mainly independent of counselor communication skills. This intention may be an important clinical indicator of which hazardous drinkers are most likely to improve after BAI.

Sex, politics and social change in the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries: Evidence from the Swiss Alps

The 18th century "sexual revolution" can not simply be explained as a consequence of economic or institutional factors - industrialization, agricultural revolution, secularization or legal hindrances to marriages: the example of western Valais (Switzerland) shows that we have to deal with a complex configuration of factors The micro-historical approach reveals that in the 18th and 19th century sexuality - and above all illicit sexuality - was a highly subversive force which was considerably linked to political innovation and probably more generally to historical change. Non-marital sexuality was clearly tied to political dissent ant to innovative ways of behaviour, both among the social elites and the common people. This behaviour patterns influenced crucial evolutions in the social, cultural and economic history of the region.

Blood pressure change and outcome in acute ischemic stroke: the impact of baseline values, previous hypertensive disease and previous antihypertensive treatment.

BACKGROUND: Management of blood pressure (BP) in acute ischemic stroke is controversial. The present study aims to explore the association between baseline BP levels and BP change and outcome in the overall stroke population and in specific subgroups with regard to the presence of arterial hypertensive disease and prior antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: All patients registered in the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between 2003 and 2009 were analyzed. Unfavorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin score more than 2. A local polynomial surface algorithm was used to assess the effect of BP values on outcome in the overall population and in predefined subgroups. RESULTS: Up to a certain point, as initial BP was increasing, optimal outcome was seen with a progressively more substantial BP decrease over the next 24-48 h. Patients without hypertensive disease and an initially low BP seemed to benefit from an increase of BP. In patients with hypertensive disease, initial BP and its subsequent changes seemed to have less influence on clinical outcome. Patients who were previously treated with antihypertensives did not tolerate initially low BPs well. CONCLUSION: Optimal outcome in acute ischemic stroke may be determined not only by initial BP levels but also by the direction and magnitude of associated BP change over the first 24-48 h.

The spatio-temporal brain dynamics of processing and integrating sound localization cues in humans.

Interaural intensity and time differences (IID and ITD) are two binaural auditory cues for localizing sounds in space. This study investigated the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms for processing and integrating IID and ITD cues in humans. Auditory-evoked potentials were recorded, while subjects passively listened to noise bursts lateralized with IID, ITD or both cues simultaneously, as well as a more frequent centrally presented noise. In a separate psychophysical experiment, subjects actively discriminated lateralized from centrally presented stimuli. IID and ITD cues elicited different electric field topographies starting at approximately 75 ms post-stimulus onset, indicative of the engagement of distinct cortical networks. By contrast, no performance differences were observed between IID and ITD cues during the psychophysical experiment. Subjects did, however, respond significantly faster and more accurately when both cues were presented simultaneously. This performance facilitation exceeded predictions from probability summation, suggestive of interactions in neural processing of IID and ITD cues. Supra-additive neural response interactions as well as topographic modulations were indeed observed approximately 200 ms post-stimulus for the comparison of responses to the simultaneous presentation of both cues with the mean of those to separate IID and ITD cues. Source estimations revealed differential processing of IID and ITD cues initially within superior temporal cortices and also at later stages within temporo-parietal and inferior frontal cortices. Differences were principally in terms of hemispheric lateralization. The collective psychophysical and electrophysiological results support the hypothesis that IID and ITD cues are processed by distinct, but interacting, cortical networks that can in turn facilitate auditory localization.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Advanced trauma life support, 8th edition, the evidence for change.

The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma's Advanced Trauma Life Support Course is currently taught in 50 countries. The 8th edition has been revised following broad input by the International ATLS subcommittee. Graded levels of evidence were used to evaluate and approve changes to the course content. New materials related to principles of disaster management have been added. ATLS is a common language teaching one safe way of initial trauma assessment and management.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Improvements in readiness to change and drinking in primary care patients with unhealthy alcohol use: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The course of alcohol consumption and cognitive dimensions of behavior change (readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change) in primary care patients are not well described. The objective of the study was to determine changes in readiness, importance and confidence after a primary care visit, and 6-month improvements in both drinking and cognitive dimensions of behavior change, in patients with unhealthy alcohol use. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients with unhealthy alcohol use visiting primary care physicians, with repeated assessments of readiness, importance, and confidence (visual analogue scale (VAS), score range 1-10 points). Improvements 6 months later were defined as no unhealthy alcohol use or any increase in readiness, importance, or confidence. Regression models accounted for clustering by physician and adjusted for demographics, alcohol consumption and related problems, and discussion with the physician about alcohol. RESULTS: From before to immediately after the primary care physician visit, patients (n = 173) had increases in readiness (mean +1.0 point), importance (+0.2), and confidence (+0.5) (all p < 0.002). In adjusted models, discussion with the physician about alcohol was associated with increased readiness (+0.8, p = 0.04). At 6 months, many participants had improvements in drinking or readiness (62%), drinking or importance (58%), or drinking or confidence (56%). CONCLUSION: Readiness, importance and confidence improve in many patients with unhealthy alcohol use immediately after a primary care visit. Six months after a visit, most patients have improvements in either drinking or these cognitive dimensions of behavior change.