Infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents: a reciprocal relationship.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). SETTING: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. MEASUREMENTS: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P=.11). During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.2-2.2, P=.002, and AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.1-2.0, P=.008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. CONCLUSION: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.

Reduced ejection fraction after myocardial infarction: is it sufficient to justify implantation of a defibrillator?

BACKGROUND: Improved survival after prophylactic implantation of a defibrillator in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) after myocardial infarction (MI) has been demonstrated in patients who experienced remote MIs in the 1990s. The absolute survival benefit conferred by this recommended strategy must be related to the current risk of arrhythmic death, which is evolving. This study evaluates the mortality rate in survivors of MI with impaired left ventricular function and its relation to pre-hospital discharge baseline characteristics. METHODS: The clinical records of patients who had sustained an acute MI between 1999 and 2000 and had been discharged from the hospital with an EF of < or = 40% were included. Baseline characteristics, drug prescriptions, and invasive procedures were recorded. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a primary end point of total mortality. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five patients were included. During a median follow-up period of 30 months (interquartile range, 22 to 36 months) 18 patients died. The 1-year and 2-year mortality rates were 6.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Variables reflecting coronary artery disease and its management (ie, prior MI, acute reperfusion, and complete revascularization) had a greater impact on mortality than variables reflecting mechanical dysfunction (ie, EF and Killip class). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate among survivors of MIs with reduced EF was substantially lower than that reported in the 1990s. The strong decrease in the arrhythmic risk implies a proportional increase in the number of patients needed to treat with a prophylactic defibrillator to prevent one adverse event. The risk of an event may even be sufficiently low to limit the detectable benefit of defibrillators in patients with the prognostic features identified in our study. This argues for additional risk stratification prior to the prophylactic implantation of a defibrillator.

VeriStrat(®) has a prognostic value for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line: Pooled analysis of SAKK19/05 and NTR528.

BACKGROUND: VeriStrat(®) is a serum proteomic test used to determine whether patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have already received chemotherapy are likely to have good or poor outcomes from treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib. The main objective of our retrospective study was to evaluate the role of VS as a marker of overall survival (OS) in patients treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were pooled from two phase II trials (SAKK19/05 and NTR528). For survival analyses, a log-rank test was used to determine if there was a statistically significant difference between groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of any separation was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 117 patients were analyzed. VeriStrat classified patients into two groups which had a statistically significant difference in duration of OS (p=0.0027, HR=0.480, 95% confidence interval: 0.294-0.784). CONCLUSION: VeriStrat has a prognostic role in patients with advanced, nonsquamous NSCLC treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. Further work is needed to study the predictive role of VeriStrat for erlotinib and bevacizumab in chemotherapy-untreated patients.

Cross-talk between glutamate and potassium regulation at the astrocyte membrane

Astrocytes play a central role in the brain by regulating glutamate and extracellular potassium concentrations ([K+]0), both released by neurons into the extracellular space during neuronal activity. Glutamate uptake is driven by the inwardly directed sodium gradient across the astrocyte membrane and involves the influx of three sodium ions and one proton and the efflux of one K+ ion per glutamate molecule. The glutamate transport induced rise in intracellular sodium stimulates the Na+/K+-ATPase which leads to significant energetic costs in astrocytes. To evaluate how these two fundamental functions of astrocytes, namely glutamate transport and K+ buffering, which are directly associated with neuronal activity, coexist and if they influence each other, in this thesis work we examined different cellular parameters of astrocytes. We therefore investigated the impact of altered [K+]0 on glutamate transporter activity. To assess this question we measured intracellular sodium fluctuations in mouse primary cultured astrocytes using dynamic fluorescence imaging. We found that glutamate uptake was tightly modulated both in amplitude and kinetics by [K+]0. Elevated [K+]0 strongly decreased glutamate transporter activity, with significant consequences on the cells energy metabolism. To ultimately evaluate potential effects of [K+]0 and glutamate on the astrocyte mitochondrial energy production we extended these studies by investigating their impact on the cytosolic and mitochondrial pH. We found that both [K+],, and glutamate strongly influenced cytosolic and mitochondrial pH, but in opposite directions. The effect of a simultaneous application of K+ and glutamate, however, did not fit with the arithmetical sum of each individual effects, suggesting that an additional non¬linear process is involved. We also investigated the impact of [K+]0 and glutamate transport, respectively, on intracellular potassium concentrations ([K+]0 in cultured astrocytes by characterizing and applying a newly developed Insensitive fluorescent dye. We observed that [K+]i followed [K+]0 changes in a nearly proportional way and that glutamate superfusion caused a reversible, glutamate-concentration dependent drop of [K+],, Our study shows the powerful influence of [K+]u on glutamate capture. These findings have strong implications for our understanding of the tightly regulated interplay between astrocytes and neurons in situations where [K+]0 undergoes large activity-dependent fluctuations. However, depending on the extent of K+ versus glutamate extracellular rise, energy metabolism in astrocytes will be differently regulated. Moreover, the novel insights obtained during this thesis work help understanding some of the underlying processes that prevail in certain pathologies of central nervous system, such as epilepsy and stroke. These results will possibly provide a basis for the development of novel therapeutic strategies. -- Les astrocytes jouent un rôle central dans le cerveau en régulant les concentrations de potassium (K+) et de glutamate, qui sont relâchés par les neurones dans l'espace extracellulaire lorsque ceux- ci sont actifs. La capture par les astrocytes du glutamate est un processus secondairement actif qui implique l'influx d'ions sodium (Na+) et d'un proton, ainsi que l'efflux d'ions K+, ce processus entraîne un coût métabolique important. Nous avons évalué comment ces fonctions fondamentales des astrocytes, la régulation du glutamate et du K+ extracellulaire, qui sont directement associés à l'activité neuronale, coexistent et si elles interagissent, en examinant différents paramètres cellulaires. Dans ce projet de thèse nous avons évalué l'impact des modifications de la concentration de potassium extracellulaire ([K+],,) sur le transport du glutamate. Nous avons mesuré le transport du glutamate par le biais des fluctuations internes de Na+ grâce à un colorant fluorescent en utilisant de l'imagerie à fluorescence dynamique sur des cultures primaires d'astrocytes. Nous avons trouvé que la capture du glutamate était étroitement régulée par [K+]0 aussi bien dans son amplitude que dans sa cinétique. Par la suite, nous avons porté notre attention sur l'impact de [K+]0 et du glutamate sur le pH cytosolique et mitochondrial de l'astrocyte dans le but, in fine, d'évaluer les effets potentiels sur la production d'énergie par la mitochondrie. Nous avons trouvé qu'autant le K+ que le glutamate, de manière individuelle, influençaient fortement le pH, cependant dans des directions opposées. Leurs effets individuels, ne peuvent toutefois pas être additionnés ce qui suggère qu'un processus additionnel non-linéaire est impliqué. En appliquant une nouvelle approche pour suivre et quantifier la concentration intracellulaire de potassium ([K+]0 par imagerie à fluorescence, nous avons observé que [K+]i suivait les changements de [K+]0 de manière quasiment proportionnelle et que la superfusion de glutamate induisait un décroissement rapide et réversible de [K+]i, qui dépend de la concentration de glutamate. Notre étude démontre l'influence de [K+]0 sur la capture du glutamate. Ces résultats permettent d'améliorer notre compréhension de l'interaction entre astrocytes et neurones dans des situations où [K+]0 fluctue en fonction de l'activité neuronale. Cependant, en fonction de l'importance de l'augmentation extracellulaire du K+ versus le glutamate, le métabolisme énergétique des astrocytes va être régulé de manière différente. De plus, les informations nouvelles que nous avons obtenues durant ce travail de thèse nous aident à comprendre quelques- uns des processus sous-jacents qui prévalent dans certaines pathologies du système nerveux central, comme par exemple l'épilepsie ou l'accident vasculaire cérébral. Ces informations pourront être importantes à intégrer dans la cadre du développement de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

Tenofovir use is associated with a reduction in calculated glomerular filtration rates in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of case reports have described tenofovir (TDF)-related proximal renal tubulopathy and impaired calculated glomerular filtration rates (cGFR). We assessed TDF-associated changes in cGFR in a large observational HIV cohort. METHODS: We compared treatment-naive patients or patients with treatment interruptions > or = 12 months starting either a TDF-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (n = 363) or a TDF-sparing regime (n = 715). The predefined primary endpoint was the time to a 10 ml/min reduction in cGFR, based on the Cockcroft-Gault equation, confirmed by a follow-up measurement at least 1 month later. In sensitivity analyses, secondary endpoints including calculations based on the modified diet in renal disease (MDRD) formula were considered. Endpoints were modelled using pre-specified covariates in a multiple Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Two-year event-free probabilities were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.72) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.83) for patients starting TDF-containing or TDF-sparing cART, respectively. In the multiple Cox model, diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.34 [95% CI 1.24-4.42]), higher baseline cGFR (HR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.02-1.04] by 10 ml/min), TDF use (HR = 1.84 [95% CI 1.35-2.51]) and boosted protease inhibitor use (HR = 1.71 [95% CI 1.30-2.24]) significantly increased the risk for reaching the primary endpoint. Sensitivity analyses showed high consistency. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence for a significant reduction in cGFR associated with TDF use in HIV-infected patients. Our findings call for a strict monitoring of renal function in long-term TDF users with tests that distinguish between glomerular dysfunction and proximal renal tubulopathy, a known adverse effect of TDF.

Fixed rings and strictures in Eosinophilic Esophagitis develop due to continuing inflammation over time

Background and Aims: Two distinct e ndoscopic phenotypes of E osinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) h ave been identified: t he inflammatory (IP) a nd the stenosing (SP) p henotype. I t is not known whether these EoE-associated phenotypes are reflective of different phases during disease course. We aimed to assess the phenotype a t initial EoE p resentation and d iagnosis and to evaluate if SP increases over time. Methods: R etrospective a nalysis of t he Swiss EoE Database (SEED) extended b y a review of p atients charts, endoscopy and pathology records. Results: F orty-four E oE p atients were a nalyzed (33 males, mean age at index visit 41 ± 14 years, all Caucasians). Median follow-up t ime was 3.1 years (IQR 1-4, r ange 1 -18 years). Median diagnostic delay w as 5 y ears (IQR 2-16, range 0-34 years). A t first diagnosis, 3 2% ( 14/44) o f EoE patients h ad already presented w ith a stenosis. T he mean d iameter o f the stenoses w as 1 0 ± 2 mm, and the mean length was 2 .8 ± 2 .9 cm. Peak e osinophil count d id n ot c hange over t ime (48 ± 39 eos/HPF at index visit vs. 59 ± 41 eos/HPF at end of follow-up, n=44). The risk of the presence of a stenosis at index visit was 0% f or a d isease duration of 0 -4 y ears, 37% f or a d isease duration between 5-10 years and 67% f or a d isease duration >10 years (p = 0.0035, trend test). Conclusions: T he frequency of e sophageal stenoses i s proportional to the disease duration, whereas the inflammatory activity does n ot s ignificantly c hange over t ime. O ur f indings underscore the necessity to reduce diagnostic delay in EoE and to control the underlying inflammatory processes to prevent esophageal remodeling.

Socioeconomic status, structural and functional measures of social support, and mortality: The British Whitehall II Cohort Study, 1985-2009.

The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.

Epidemiology of small intestinal atresia in Europe: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.

Hybrid Multiscale Finite Volume method for two-phase flow in porous media

We present a novel hybrid (or multiphysics) algorithm, which couples pore-scale and Darcy descriptions of two-phase flow in porous media. The flow at the pore-scale is described by the Navier?Stokes equations, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is used to model the evolution of the fluid?fluid interface. An extension of the Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method is employed to construct the Darcy-scale problem. First, a set of local interpolators for pressure and velocity is constructed by solving the Navier?Stokes equations; then, a coarse mass-conservation problem is constructed by averaging the pore-scale velocity over the cells of a coarse grid, which act as control volumes; finally, a conservative pore-scale velocity field is reconstructed and used to advect the fluid?fluid interface. The method relies on the localization assumptions used to compute the interpolators (which are quite straightforward extensions of the standard MsFV) and on the postulate that the coarse-scale fluxes are proportional to the coarse-pressure differences. By numerical simulations of two-phase problems, we demonstrate that these assumptions provide hybrid solutions that are in good agreement with reference pore-scale solutions and are able to model the transition from stable to unstable flow regimes. Our hybrid method can naturally take advantage of several adaptive strategies and allows considering pore-scale fluxes only in some regions, while Darcy fluxes are used in the rest of the domain. Moreover, since the method relies on the assumption that the relationship between coarse-scale fluxes and pressure differences is local, it can be used as a numerical tool to investigate the limits of validity of Darcy's law and to understand the link between pore-scale quantities and their corresponding Darcy-scale variables.

Basal insulin and cardiovascular and other outcomes in dysglycemia.

BACKGROUND: The provision of sufficient basal insulin to normalize fasting plasma glucose levels may reduce cardiovascular events, but such a possibility has not been formally tested. METHODS: We randomly assigned 12,537 people (mean age, 63.5 years) with cardiovascular risk factors plus impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or type 2 diabetes to receive insulin glargine (with a target fasting blood glucose level of ≤95 mg per deciliter [5.3 mmol per liter]) or standard care and to receive n-3 fatty acids or placebo with the use of a 2-by-2 factorial design. The results of the comparison between insulin glargine and standard care are reported here. The coprimary outcomes were nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes and these events plus revascularization or hospitalization for heart failure. Microvascular outcomes, incident diabetes, hypoglycemia, weight, and cancers were also compared between groups. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 6.2 years (interquartile range, 5.8 to 6.7). Rates of incident cardiovascular outcomes were similar in the insulin-glargine and standard-care groups: 2.94 and 2.85 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the first coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.11; P=0.63) and 5.52 and 5.28 per 100 person-years, respectively, for the second coprimary outcome (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.11; P=0.27). New diabetes was diagnosed approximately 3 months after therapy was stopped among 30% versus 35% of 1456 participants without baseline diabetes (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.00; P=0.05). Rates of severe hypoglycemia were 1.00 versus 0.31 per 100 person-years. Median weight increased by 1.6 kg in the insulin-glargine group and fell by 0.5 kg in the standard-care group. There was no significant difference in cancers (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13; P=0.97). CONCLUSIONS: When used to target normal fasting plasma glucose levels for more than 6 years, insulin glargine had a neutral effect on cardiovascular outcomes and cancers. Although it reduced new-onset diabetes, insulin glargine also increased hypoglycemia and modestly increased weight. (Funded by Sanofi; ORIGIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00069784.).

Descriptive epidemiology of skin cancer in the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

Incidence registration and survival data for non-melanocytic skin neoplasms and cutaneous melanoma have been abstracted from the population-based system of the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, which has been operating in a particularly favourable environment, since the large majority of cutaneous lesions resected in the area are examined by a pathologist. Among the 5,712 cases registered, 66.7% were basal-cell carcinomas, 20.6% squamous-cell cancers, 9.3% cutaneous melanomas and 3.4% other miscellaneous histological types. The distribution by histological type did not differ appreciably in the 2 sexes, but there were marked inter-sex differences as regards anatomical site. In both sexes, head and neck was by far the commonest localization for non-melanomatous neoplasms (69 to 81% of all incident cases), followed by trunk for basal-cell cancers (18% in males, 15% in females) and upper limb for squamous-cell (10% in males, 17% in females). The distribution of skin melanomas differed considerably between the 2 sexes, by far the commonest site being the trunk for males (45% of cases) and lower limbs for females (40%), followed by head and neck (22% in both sexes). Incidence rates for both basal- and squamous-cell cancers increased with age, and rates were higher in males for each localization except the lower limb. In contrast, incidence for melanoma was higher in females, and incidence rates did not increase with age above 55 years for all sites except head and neck. This can be interpreted in terms of cohort effect, since mortality from melanoma has substantially increased in Switzerland across subsequent birth cohorts. Although this study is essentially descriptive, accurate inspection of these data provides some support for the major aetiological hypotheses of skin carcinogenesis, i.e., the observation that the large majority of basal- and squamous-cell cancers arise on the head and neck confirms the importance of long-term ultraviolet exposure; the relative excess of squamous-cell as compared to basal-cell neoplasms on the upper limb may suggest the role of exposure to other (chemical) carcinogens; and the proportional excess of melanomas on the trunk in males and lower limb in females further indicates that intermittent exposure to sunlight is probably the relevant aetiologic factor for melanocytic skin neoplasms.

Gender differences in HIV progression to AIDS and death in industrialized countries: slower disease progression following HIV seroconversion in women.

To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.

Multivariate QST-FST comparisons: a neutrality test for the evolution of the g matrix in structured populations.

Neutrality tests in quantitative genetics provide a statistical framework for the detection of selection on polygenic traits in wild populations. However, the existing method based on comparisons of divergence at neutral markers and quantitative traits (Q(st)-F(st)) suffers from several limitations that hinder a clear interpretation of the results with typical empirical designs. In this article, we propose a multivariate extension of this neutrality test based on empirical estimates of the among-populations (D) and within-populations (G) covariance matrices by MANOVA. A simple pattern is expected under neutrality: D = 2F(st)/(1 - F(st))G, so that neutrality implies both proportionality of the two matrices and a specific value of the proportionality coefficient. This pattern is tested using Flury's framework for matrix comparison [common principal-component (CPC) analysis], a well-known tool in G matrix evolution studies. We show the importance of using a Bartlett adjustment of the test for the small sample sizes typically found in empirical studies. We propose a dual test: (i) that the proportionality coefficient is not different from its neutral expectation [2F(st)/(1 - F(st))] and (ii) that the MANOVA estimates of mean square matrices between and among populations are proportional. These two tests combined provide a more stringent test for neutrality than the classic Q(st)-F(st) comparison and avoid several statistical problems. Extensive simulations of realistic empirical designs suggest that these tests correctly detect the expected pattern under neutrality and have enough power to efficiently detect mild to strong selection (homogeneous, heterogeneous, or mixed) when it is occurring on a set of traits. This method also provides a rigorous and quantitative framework for disentangling the effects of different selection regimes and of drift on the evolution of the G matrix. We discuss practical requirements for the proper application of our test in empirical studies and potential extensions.

Tacrolimus and cyclosporine have differential effects on the risk of development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome: results of a prospective, randomized international trial in lung transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction, which manifests as bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), is recognized as the primary cause of morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. In this study we assessed the efficacy and safety of two de novo immunosuppression protocols to prevent BOS. METHODS: Our study approach was a multicenter, prospective, randomized (1:1) open-label superiority investigation of de novo tacrolimus vs cyclosporine, with both study arms given mycophenolate mofetil and prednisolone after lung transplantation. Cytolytic induction therapy was not employed. Patients were stratified at entry for cystic fibrosis. Primary outcome was incidence of BOS 3 years after transplant (intention-to-treat analysis). Secondary outcomes were survival and incidence of acute rejection, infection and other adverse events. RESULTS: Group demographic data were well matched: 110 of 124 tacrolimus vs 74 of 125 cyclosporine patients were treated per protocol (p < 0.01 by chi-square test). Cumulative incidence of BOS Grade ≥1 at 3 years was 11.6% (tacrolimus) vs 21.3% (cyclosporine) (cumulative incidence curves, p = 0.037 by Gray's test, pooled over strata). Univariate proportional sub-distribution hazards regression confirmed cyclosporine as a risk for BOS (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.77, p = 0.039). Three-year cumulative incidence of acute rejection was 67.4% (tacrolimus) vs 74.9% (cyclosporine) (p = 0.118 by Gray's test). One- and 3-year survival rates were 84.6% and 78.7% (tacrolimus) vs 88.6% and 82.8% (cyclosporine) (p = 0.382 by log-rank test). Cumulative infection rates were similar (p = 0.91), but there was a trend toward new-onset renal failure with tacrolimus (p = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with cyclosporine, de novo tacrolimus use was found to be associated with a significantly reduced risk for BOS Grade ≥1 at 3 years despite a similar rate of acute rejection. However, no survival advantage was detected.