Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

MAR elements regulate the probability of epigenetic switching between active and inactive gene expression.

Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Ruin and related quantities in some advanced insurance risk models

Risk theory has been a very active research area over the last decades. The main objectives of the theory are to find adequate stochastic processes which can model the surplus of a (non-life) insurance company and to analyze the risk related quantities such as ruin time, ruin probability, expected discounted penalty function and expected discounted dividend/tax payments. The study of these ruin related quantities provides crucial information for actuaries and decision makers. This thesis consists of the study of four different insurance risk models which are essentially related. The ruin and related quantities are investigated by using different techniques, resulting in explicit or asymptotic expressions for the ruin time, the ruin probability, the expected discounted penalty function and the expected discounted tax payments. - La recherche en théorie du risque a été très dynamique au cours des dernières décennies. D'un point de vue théorique, les principaux objectifs sont de trouver des processus stochastiques adéquats permettant de modéliser le surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance non vie et d'analyser les mesures de risque, notamment le temps de ruine, la probabilité de ruine, l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes. L'étude de ces mesures associées à la ruine fournit des informations cruciales pour les actuaires et les décideurs. Cette thèse consiste en l'étude des quatre différents modèles de risque d'assurance qui sont essentiellement liés. La ruine et les mesures qui y sont associées sont examinées à l'aide de différentes techniques, ce qui permet d'induire des expressions explicites ou asymptotiques du temps de ruine, de la probabilité de ruine, de l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes.

Adjusting fracture probability by trabecular bone score.

The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.

Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models

Aim: Modelling species at the assemblage level is required to make effective forecast of global change impacts on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Community predictions may be achieved using macroecological properties of communities (MEM), or by stacking of individual species distribution models (S-SDMs). To obtain more realistic predictions of species assemblages, the SESAM framework suggests applying successive filters to the initial species source pool, by combining different modelling approaches and rules. Here we provide a first test of this framework in mountain grassland communities. Location: The western Swiss Alps. Methods: Two implementations of the SESAM framework were tested: a "Probability ranking" rule based on species richness predictions and rough probabilities from SDMs, and a "Trait range" rule that uses the predicted upper and lower bound of community-level distribution of three different functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area and seed mass) to constraint a pool of environmentally filtered species from binary SDMs predictions. Results: We showed that all independent constraints expectedly contributed to reduce species richness overprediction. Only the "Probability ranking" rule allowed slightly but significantly improving predictions of community composition. Main conclusion: We tested various ways to implement the SESAM framework by integrating macroecological constraints into S-SDM predictions, and report one that is able to improve compositional predictions. We discuss possible improvements, such as further improving the causality and precision of environmental predictors, using other assembly rules and testing other types of ecological or functional constraints.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Species distribution models reveal apparent competitive and facilitative effects of a dominant species on the distribution of tundra plants

Abiotic factors are considered strong drivers of species distribution and assemblages. Yet these spatial patterns are also influenced by biotic interactions. Accounting for competitors or facilitators may improve both the fit and the predictive power of species distribution models (SDMs). We investigated the influence of a dominant species, Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, on the distribution of 34 subordinate species in the tundra of northern Norway. We related SDM parameters of those subordinate species to their functional traits and their co-occurrence patterns with E. hermaphroditum across three spatial scales. By combining both approaches, we sought to understand whether these species may be limited by competitive interactions and/or benefit from habitat conditions created by the dominant species. The model fit and predictive power increased for most species when the frequency of occurrence of E. hermaphroditum was included in the SDMs as a predictor. The largest increase was found for species that 1) co-occur most of the time with E. hermaphroditum, both at large (i.e. 750 m) and small spatial scale (i.e. 2 m) or co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at large scale but not at small scale and 2) have particularly low or high leaf dry matter content (LDMC). Species that do not co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at the smallest scale are generally palatable herbaceous species with low LDMC, thus showing a weak ability to tolerate resource depletion that is directly or indirectly induced by E. hermaphroditum. Species with high LDMC, showing a better aptitude to face resource depletion and grazing, are often found in the proximity of E. hermaphroditum. Our results are consistent with previous findings that both competition and facilitation structure plant distribution and assemblages in the Arctic tundra. The functional and co-occurrence approaches used were complementary and provided a deeper understanding of the observed patterns by refinement of the pool of potential direct and indirect ecological effects of E. hermaphroditum on the distribution of subordinate species. Our correlative study would benefit being complemented by experimental approaches.

Physiotherapy practice in the private sector: organizational characteristics and models.

BACKGROUND: Even if a large proportion of physiotherapists work in the private sector worldwide, very little is known of the organizations within which they practice. Such knowledge is important to help understand contexts of practice and how they influence the quality of services and patient outcomes. The purpose of this study was to: 1) describe characteristics of organizations where physiotherapists practice in the private sector, and 2) explore the existence of a taxonomy of organizational models. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional quantitative survey of 236 randomly-selected physiotherapists. Participants completed a purpose-designed questionnaire online or by telephone, covering organizational vision, resources, structures and practices. Organizational characteristics were analyzed descriptively, while organizational models were identified by multiple correspondence analyses. RESULTS: Most organizations were for-profit (93.2%), located in urban areas (91.5%), and within buildings containing multiple businesses/organizations (76.7%). The majority included multiple providers (89.8%) from diverse professions, mainly physiotherapy assistants (68.7%), massage therapists (67.3%) and osteopaths (50.2%). Four organizational models were identified: 1) solo practice, 2) middle-scale multiprovider, 3) large-scale multiprovider and 4) mixed. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study provide a detailed description of the organizations where physiotherapists practice, and highlight the importance of human resources in differentiating organizational models. Further research examining the influences of these organizational characteristics and models on outcomes such as physiotherapists' professional practices and patient outcomes are needed.

CD8 kinetically promotes ligand binding to the T-cell antigen receptor.

The mechanism of CD8 cooperation with the TCR in antigen recognition was studied on live T cells. Fluorescence correlation measurements yielded evidence of the presence of two TCR and CD8 subpopulations with different lateral diffusion rate constants. Independently, evidence for two subpopulations was derived from the experimentally observed two distinct association phases of cognate peptide bound to class I MHC (pMHC) tetramers and the T cells. The fast phase rate constant ((1.7 +/- 0.2) x 10(5) M(-1) s(-1)) was independent of examined cell type or MHC-bound peptides' structure. Its value was much faster than that of the association of soluble pMHC and TCR ((7.0 +/- 0.3) x 10(3) M(-1) s(-1)), and close to that of the association of soluble pMHC with CD8 ((1-2) x 10(5) M(-1) s(-1)). The fast binding phase disappeared when CD8-pMHC interaction was blocked by a CD8-specific mAb. The latter rate constant was slowed down approximately 10-fold after cells treatment with methyl-beta-cyclodextrin. These results suggest that the most efficient pMHC-cell association route corresponds to a fast tetramer binding to a colocalized CD8-TCR subpopulation, which apparently resides within membrane rafts: the reaction starts by pMHC association with the CD8. This markedly faster step significantly increases the probability of pMHC-TCR encounters and thereby promotes pMHC association with CD8-proximal TCR. The slow binding phase is assigned to pMHC association with a noncolocalized CD8-TCR subpopulation. Taken together with results of cytotoxicity assays, our data suggest that the colocalized, raft-associated CD8-TCR subpopulation is the one capable of inducing T-cell activation.

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.