253 resultados para population viability analysis
Resumo:
Every spring, workers of the Argentine Ant Linepithema humile kill a large proportion of queens within their nests, Although this behaviour inflicts a high energetic cost oil the colonies, its biological significance has remained elusive so far. An earlier study showed that the probability of a queen being executed is not related to her weight, fecundity, or age. Here we test the hypothesis that workers collectively eliminate queens to which they are less related, thereby increasing their inclusive fitness. We found no evidence for this hypothesis. Workers of a nest were on average not significantly less related to executed queens than to surviving ones. Moreover, a population genetic analysis revealed that workers were not genetically differentiated between nests. This means that workers of a given nest are equally related to any queen in the population and that there can be no increase in average worker-queen relatedness by selective elimination of queens. Finally, our genetic analyses also showed that, in contrast to workers, queens were significantly genetically differentiated between nests and that there was significant isolation by distance for queens.
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Despite the fact that cataracts constitute the leading cause of blindness worldwide, the mechanisms of lens opacification remain unclear. We recently mapped the aculeiform cataract to the gamma-crystallin locus (CRYG) on chromosome 2q33-35, and mutational analysis of the CRYG-genes cluster identified the aculeiform-cataract mutation in exon 2 of gamma-crystallin D (CRYGD). This mutation occurred in a highly conserved amino acid and could be associated with an impaired folding of CRYGD. During our study, we observed that the previously reported Coppock-like-cataract mutation, the first human cataract mutation, in the pseudogene CRYGE represented a polymorphism seen in 23% of our control population. Further analysis of the original Coppock-like-cataract family identified a missense mutation in a highly conserved segment of exon 2 of CRYGC. These mutations were not seen in a large control population. There is no direct evidence, to date, that up-regulation of a pseudogene causes cataracts. To our knowledge, these findings are the first evidence of an involvement of CRYGC and support the role of CRYGD in human cataract formation.
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BACKGROUND: Atrial arrhythmias increase disease burden in the general adult population. Adults with congenital heart lesions constitute a rapidly growing group of patients with cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that atrial arrhythmias increase with age and impair health outcomes in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based analysis of prevalence, lifetime risk, mortality, and morbidity associated with atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease from l983 to 2005. In 38 428 adults with congenital heart disease in 2005, 5812 had atrial arrhythmias. Overall, the 20-year risk of developing atrial arrhythmia was 7% in a 20-year-old subject and 38% in a 50-year-old subject. More than 50% of patients with severe congenital heart disease reaching age 18 years developed atrial arrhythmias by age 65 years. In patients with congenital heart disease, the hazard ratio of any adverse event in those with atrial arrhythmias compared with those without was 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.38 to 2.62; P<0.0001), with a near 50% increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 1.58; P<0.001), more than double the risk of morbidity (stroke or heart failure) (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001), and 3 times the risk of cardiac interventions (hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.20; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 15% of adults with congenital heart disease. The lifetime incidence increased steadily with age and was associated with a doubling of the risk of adverse events. An increase in resource allocation should be anticipated to deal with this increasing burden.
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Purpose: to assess the trends of self-reported prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes) and their management for period 1992 to 2007 in the Swiss population. Methods: four National health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population (63,782 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and controllevels were computed after weighting. Weights were calculated by raking ratio such that the marginal distribution of the weighted totals conforms to the marginal distribution of the targeted population. Multivariate analysis adjusted on age, sex, education, nationality and SMI was conducted using logistic regression. Results: prevalence of ail CV RFs increased between 1992 and 2007, see table. Although the self-reported prevalence of treatment among subjects with CV RFs increased, and this was confirmed by multivariate analysis: OR for hypocholesterolaemic treatment relative to 1992: 0.64 [0.52-0.78]; 1.39 [1.18-1.65] and 2.00 [1.69-2.36] for 1997, 2002 and 2007, respectively. Still, in 2007, circa 40% of hypertensive, 60% of dyslipidaemic and 50% of diabetic subjects weren't treated. Conversely, an adequate control of CV RFs was reported by treated subjects, with an increase during the study period. This increase was confirmed by multivariate analysis (not shown). Conclusion: the self-reported prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes increased between 1992 and 2007 in the Swiss population. Despite a good control of treated subjects, still a significant percentage of subjects with CV RFs are not treated.
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PURPOSE: The prevalence of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene fusion (ALK positivity) in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) varies by population examined and detection method used. The Lungscape ALK project was designed to address the prevalence and prognostic impact of ALK positivity in resected lung adenocarcinoma in a primarily European population. METHODS: Analysis of ALK status was performed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) in tissue sections of 1,281 patients with adenocarcinoma in the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape iBiobank. Positive patients were matched with negative patients in a 1:2 ratio, both for IHC and for FISH testing. Testing was performed in 16 participating centers, using the same protocol after passing external quality assessment. RESULTS: Positive ALK IHC staining was present in 80 patients (prevalence of 6.2%; 95% CI, 4.9% to 7.6%). Of these, 28 patients were ALK FISH positive, corresponding to a lower bound for the prevalence of FISH positivity of 2.2%. FISH specificity was 100%, and FISH sensitivity was 35.0% (95% CI, 24.7% to 46.5%), with a sensitivity value of 81.3% (95% CI, 63.6% to 92.8%) for IHC 2+/3+ patients. The hazard of death for FISH-positive patients was lower than for IHC-negative patients (P = .022). Multivariable models, adjusted for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, and matched cohort analysis confirmed that ALK FISH positivity is a predictor for better overall survival (OS). CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of surgically resected lung adenocarcinomas, the prevalence of ALK positivity was 6.2% using IHC and at least 2.2% using FISH. A screening strategy based on IHC or H-score could be envisaged. ALK positivity (by either IHC or FISH) was related to better OS.
Resumo:
Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.
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Most Central European Capercaillie populations have been declining during the last century. In the Jura Mountains, at the border between Switzerland and France, remaining Capercaillie populations are now isolated and endangered. In this study, land-use and Capercaillie presence data were used to identify key landscape parameters by logistic regression modelling. We found that Capercaillie prefers areas at the highest altitude in the Jura Mountains that are characterised by continous forests and stands with intermediate canopy cover. At the local scale, winter habitat selection revealed a preference for open forests with a sparse canopy cover dominated by spruce and fir. Capercaillie avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by beech. Population viability and sensitivity analyses underlined the crucial importance of adult female survival, chick survival and breeding success for populations maintenance. Legal bases, scientific knowledge and technical measures are now available to conserve the flagship species Capercaillie within Jura Mountains. Capercaillie-adapted forestry requires a mosaic distribtution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse. Preliminary essays indicate that grouse-adapted forestry costs are similar or even lower than present costs. To increase survival and breeding sucess, one option is to diminish human distrubance by limiting access to Capercailllie breeding and wintering areas. An action plan for the species should avoid more costly and intensive approaches such as the reintroduction of birds from other populations. Capercaillie conservaiton represents a major challenge rising from various and contradictory leisure, tourist and rural development activities. Collaborations with different stakeholders and state agencies for forestry with an effective protection from human distrubance.
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BACKGROUND: Bone graft substitute such as calcium sulfate are frequently used as carrier material for local antimicrobial therapy in orthopedic surgery. This study aimed to assess the systemic absorption and disposition of tobramycin in patients treated with a tobramycin-laden bone graft substitute (Osteoset® T). METHODS: Nine blood samples were taken from 12 patients over 10 days after Osteoset® T surgical implantation. Tobramycin concentration was measured by fluorescence polarization. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM to assess the average value and variability (CV) of pharmacokinetic parameters. Bioavailability (F) was assessed by equating clearance (CL) with creatinine clearance (Cockcroft CLCr). Based on the final model, simulations with various doses and renal function levels were performed. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01938417). RESULTS: The patients were 52 +/- 20 years old, their mean body weight was 73 +/- 17 kg and their mean CLCr was 119 +/- 55 mL/min. Either 10 g or 20 g Osteoset® T with 4% tobramycin sulfate was implanted in various sites. Concentration profiles remained low and consistent with absorption rate-limited first-order release, while showing important variability. With CL equated to CLCr, mean absorption rate constant (ka) was 0.06 h-1, F was 63% or 32% (CV 74%) for 10 and 20 g Osteoset® T respectively, and volume of distribution (V) was 16.6 L (CV 89%). Simulations predicted sustained high, potentially toxic concentrations with 10 g, 30 g and 50 g Osteoset® T for CLCr values below 10, 20 and 30 mL/min, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Osteoset® T does not raise toxicity concerns in subjects without significant renal failure. The risk/benefit ratio might turn unfavorable in case of severe renal failure, even after standard dose implantation.
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Background: Optimal valganciclovir (VGC) dosage and duration for cytomegalovirus (CMV) prophylaxis in kidney transplant recipients remains controversial. This study aimed to determine GCV blood levels and efficacy/safety observed under low-dose oral VGC in kidney transplant recipients. Secondly, to quantify the variability of GCV blood levels, and its potential clinical impact. Methods: In this prospective study, each patient at risk for CMV undergoing kidney transplantation received low-dose VGC (450 mg qd) prophylaxis for 3 months, unless GFR was below 40 mL/min, in which case the dose was adapted to 450 mg every other day. GCV levels, at trough (Ctrough) and at peak (C3h) were measured monthly and CMV viremia was assessed during and after prophylaxis using real time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction. Adverse effects were recorded on each GCV sampling. Patients were followed up to one year after transplantation. Results: 38 kidney recipients (19 D+/R+, 11 D+/R-, 8 D-/R+) received 3-month VGC prophylaxis. Most patients (mean GFR of 59 mL/min) received 450 mg qd but the dose was reduced to 450 mg every other day in 6 patients with mean GFR of 22 mL/min. Average GCV C3h and Ctrough (regressed at 24h or 48h) were 3.9 mg/L (CV 33%, range: 1.3-8.2) and 0.4 mg/L (CV 111%, range 0.1-3.3). Population pharmacokinetic analysis showed a fair dispersion of the parameters mainly influenced by renal function. Despite this variability, patients remained aviremic during VGC prophylaxis. Neutropenia and thrombocytopenia (grade 2-4) were reported in 4% and 3% of patients respectively. During follow-up, asymptomatic CMV viremia was reported in 25% patients. One year after transplantation, 12% patients (all D+/R-) had developed a CMV disease, which was treated with a therapeutic 6-week course of oral VGC. Conclusion: Average GCV blood levels after oral administration of low-dose VGC in kidney transplant recipients were comparable to those previously reported with oral GCV prophylaxis, efficacious and well tolerated. Thus, a 3-month course of low-dose VGC is appropriate for the renal function of most kidney transplant recipients.
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Astract: The aim of this thesis was to investigate how the presence of multiple queens (polygyny) affects social organization in colonies of the ant Formica exsecta. This is important because polygyny results in reduced relatedness among colony members and therefore reflects a potential paradox for altruistic cooperation being explained by inclusive fitness theory. The reason for this is that workers in polygynous colonies rear no longer only their siblings (high inclusive fitness gain) but also more distantly ox even unrelated brood (low or no inclusive fitness gain). All research projects conducted in this thesis are novel and significant contributions to the understanding of the social evolution of insect societies. We used a mixture of experimental and observational methodologies in laboratory and field colonies of F. exsecta to examine four important aspects of social life that are impacted by polygyny. First, we investigated the influence of queen number on colony sex allocation and found that the number of queens present in a colony significantly affects colony sex ratio investment. The data were consistent with the queen-replenishment hypothesis, which is based on the observation that newly mated queens are often recruited back to their parental nest. According to this theory, colonies containing many queens should only produce males due to local resource competition (i.e. related queens compete for common resources), whereas colonies hosting few queens benefit most from producing new queens to ensure colony survival. Second, we examined how reproduction is partitioned among nestmate queens. We detected a novel pattern of reproductive partitioning whereby a high proportion of queens were completely specialized in the production of only a subset of offspring classes produced within a colony, which might translate into great differences in reproductive success between queens. Third, we could demonstrate that F. exsecta workers indiscriminately reared highly related and unrelated brood although such nepotistic behaviour (preferential rearing of relatives) would be predicted by inclusive fitness theory. The absence of nepotism is probably best explained by its negative effects on overall colony efficiency. Finally, we conducted a detailed population genetic analysis, which revealed that the genetic population structure is different for queens and workers. Our data were best explained with queens forming family-based groups (multicolonial population structure), whereas workers from several nests seemed to be grouped into larger unites (unicolonial population structure) with workers moving freely between neighbouring nests. Altogether, the presented work significantly increased our understanding of the complex organization of polygynous social insect colonies and shows how an important life history trait such as queen number affects social organization at various levels. Résumé: Le but de cette thèse était d'étudier comment la présence de plusieurs reines par colonie (polygynie) influence la vie sociale chez la fourmi Formica exsecta. Ce sujet est important parce que la polygynie chez les insectes sociaux présente un passible paradoxe au niveau de la théorie du "fitness inclusive". Ce paradoxe est basé sur le fait que les ouvrières n'élèvent plus uniquement leurs frères et soeurs (gain de "fitness inclusive" maximale), mais également des individus moins ou pas du tout apparentés (gain de "fitness inclusive" réduit ou absent). Tous les projets de recherche présentés au cours de cette thèse apportent une meilleure compréhension et connaissance au niveau de l'organisation des colonies chez les insectes sociaux. Nous avons employé des méthodes d'observation et de laboratoire afin de mettre en évidence des aspects importants de la vie sociale chez les fourmis influencés par la polygynie. Quatre aspects ont été caractérisés : (1) l'influence du nombre de reines sur le sexe ratio produit par la colonie. Nous avons démontré que les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines produisaient rarement des reines tandis que les colonies contenant peu de reines souvent investissaient beaucoup de ressources dans la production des reines. Ces résultats sont en accord avec la "queen-replenishment hypothesis" qui est basé sur l'observation que les nouvelles reines sont recrutées dans la colonie où elles étaient nées. Cette hypothèse postule que la production des reines est défavorable dans les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines, parce que ces reines apparentées, rentrent en compétition pour des ressources communes. Au contraire, la production des reines est favorable dans des colonies contenant peu de reines afin d'assurer la survie de la colonie ; (2) comment les reines dans une colonie répartissent leur reproduction. Nous avons mis en évidence un nouveau pattern de cette répartition où une grande proportion de reines est complètement spécialisée dans la production d'un seul type de couvain ce qui probablement aboutit à des différences significatives entre reines dans le succès reproducteur ; (3) la capacité des ouvrières à discriminer un couvain de soeur d'un couvain non apparenté. Les résultats ont montré que les ouvrières ne font pas de discrimination entre le couvain de soeur et le couvain non apparenté ce qui n'est pas en accord avec la théorie de la "fitness inclusive". Cette absence de discrimination est probablement due à des effets négatifs comme par exemple la diminution de la production du couvain; (4) la structure génétique d'une population de F. exsecta. Nous avons mis en évidence que la structure génétique entre des groupes de reines est significativement différente de la structure génétique entre des groupes d'ouvrières. Les données suggèrent que les reines forment des groupes basés sur une structure familiale tandis que les ouvrières sont groupées dans des unités plus grandes.
Resumo:
To optimally manage a metapopulation, managers and conservation biologists can favor a type of habitat spatial distribution (e.g. aggregated or random). However, the spatial distribution that provides the highest habitat occupancy remains ambiguous and numerous contradictory results exist. Habitat occupancy depends on the balance between local extinction and colonization. Thus, the issue becomes even more puzzling when various forms of relationships - positive or negative co-variation - between local extinction and colonization rate within habitat types exist. Using an analytical model we demonstrate first that the habitat occupancy of a metapopulation is significantly affected by the presence of habitat types that display different extinction-colonization dynamics, considering: (i) variation in extinction or colonization rate and (ii) positive and negative co-variation between the two processes within habitat types. We consequently examine, with a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model, how different degrees of habitat aggregation affect occupancy predictions under similar scenarios. An aggregated distribution of habitat types provides the highest habitat occupancy when local extinction risk is spatially heterogeneous and high in some places, while a random distribution of habitat provides the highest habitat occupancy when colonization rates are high. Because spatial variability in local extinction rates always favors aggregation of habitats, we only need to know about spatial variability in colonization rates to determine whether aggregating habitat types increases, or not, metapopulation occupancy. From a comparison of the results obtained with the analytical and with the spatial-explicit stochastic simulation model we determine the conditions under which a simple metapopulation model closely matches the results of a more complex spatial simulation model with explicit heterogeneity.
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PURPOSE: to assess the trends of prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes) and their management for the period of 1992 to 2007 in Switzerland. METHODS: four health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population (63,782 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and control levels were computed after weighting. Weights were calculated by raking ratio such that the marginal distribution of the weighted totals conforms to the marginal distribution of the target population. Multivariate analysis was conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: prevalence of all CV RFs increased between 1992 and 2007. Also, the prevalence of self-reported treatment among subjects with CV RFs increased, as confirmed by multivariate analysis: OR for hypolipidemic treatment relative to 1992: 0.64 [0.52-0.78]; 1.39 [1.18-1.65] and 2.00 [1.69-2.36] for 1997, 2002 and 2007, respectively. Still, in 2007, circa 40% of hypertensive, 60% of hypercholesterolemic and 50% of diabetic subjects weren't treated. On the other hand, there is an increase of the prevalence of controlled RFs as reported by treated subjects. This was confirmed by multivariate analysis 12.1 [12.0 - 12.2]; 4.16 [4.1 - 4.23] and 2.85 [2.79 - 2.90] for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively, in 2007, relative to 1992. CONCLUSION: the prevalence of self-reported hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes increased between 1992 and 2007 in the Swiss population. Despite a good control of treated subjects, still a significant percentage of subjects with CV RFs are not treated.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: The number of requests to pre-hospital emergency medical services (PEMS) has increased in Europe over the last 20 years, but epidemiology of PEMS interventions has little be investigated. The aim of this analysis was to describe time trends of PEMS activity in a region of western Switzerland. METHODS: Use of data routinely and prospectively collected for PEMS intervention in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, from 2001 to 2010. This Swiss Canton comprises approximately 10% of the whole Swiss population. RESULTS: We observed a 40% increase in the number of requests to PEMS between 2001 and 2010. The overall rate of requests was 35/1000 inhabitants for ambulance services and 10/1000 for medical interventions (SMUR), with the highest rate among people aged ≥ 80. Most frequent reasons for the intervention were related to medical problems, predominantly unconsciousness, chest pain respiratory distress, or cardiac arrest, whereas severe trauma interventions decreased over time. Overall, 89% were alive after 48 h. The survival rate after 48 h increased regularly for cardiac arrest or myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: Routine prospective data collection of prehospital emergency interventions and monitoring of activity was feasible over time. The results we found add to the understanding of determinants of PEMS use and need to be considered to plan use of emergency health services in the near future. More comprehensive analysis of the quality of services and patient safety supported by indicators are also required, which might help to develop prehospital emergency services and new processes of care.
Resumo:
Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.