Social and medical vulnerability factors of frequent users at the emergency department: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.

Top Three Pharmacogenomics and Personalized Medicine Applications at the Nexus of Renal Pathophysiology and Cardiovascular Medicine.

Pharmacogenomics is a field with origins in the study of monogenic variations in drug metabolism in the 1950s. Perhaps because of these historical underpinnings, there has been an intensive investigation of 'hepatic pharmacogenes' such as CYP450s and liver drug metabolism using pharmacogenomics approaches over the past five decades. Surprisingly, kidney pathophysiology, attendant diseases and treatment outcomes have been vastly under-studied and under-theorized despite their central importance in maintenance of health, susceptibility to disease and rational personalized therapeutics. Indeed, chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents an increasing public health burden worldwide, both in developed and developing countries. Patients with CKD suffer from high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, which is mainly attributable to cardiovascular events before reaching end-stage renal disease. In this paper, we focus our analyses on renal function before end-stage renal disease, as seen through the lens of pharmacogenomics and human genomic variation. We herein synthesize the recent evidence linking selected Very Important Pharmacogenes (VIP) to renal function, blood pressure and salt-sensitivity in humans, and ways in which these insights might inform rational personalized therapeutics. Notably, we highlight and present the rationale for three applications that we consider as important and actionable therapeutic and preventive focus areas in renal pharmacogenomics: 1) ACE inhibitors, as a confirmed application, 2) VDR agonists, as a promising application, and 3) moderate dietary salt intake, as a suggested novel application. Additionally, we emphasize the putative contributions of gene-environment interactions, discuss the implications of these findings to treat and prevent hypertension and CKD. Finally, we conclude with a strategic agenda and vision required to accelerate advances in this under-studied field of renal pharmacogenomics with vast significance for global public health.

Optimisation of antiretroviral therapy : pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic approaches

Les progrès de la thérapie antirétrovirale ont transformé l'infection par le VIH d'une condition inévitablement fatale à une maladie chronique. En dépit de ce succès, l'échec thérapeutique et la toxicité médicamenteuse restent fréquents. Une réponse inadéquate au traitement est clairement multifactorielle et une individualisation de la posologie des médicaments qui se baserait sur les facteurs démographiques et génétiques des patients et sur les taux sanguins totaux, libres et/ou cellulaires des médicaments pourrait améliorer à la fois l'efficacité et la tolérance de la thérapie, cette dernière étant certainement un enjeu majeur pour un traitement qui se prend à vie.L'objectif global de cette thèse était de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacocinétiques (PK) et pharmacogénétiques (PG) influençant l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux (ARVs) nous offrant ainsi une base rationnelle pour l'optimisation du traitement antiviral et pour l'ajustement posologique des médicaments chez les patients VIH-positifs. Une thérapie antirétrovirale adaptée au patient est susceptible d'augmenter la probabilité d'efficacité et de tolérance à ce traitement, permettant ainsi une meilleure compliance à long terme, et réduisant le risque d'émergence de résistance et d'échec thérapeutique.A cet effet, des méthodes de quantification des concentrations plasmatiques totales, libres et cellulaires des ARVs ainsi que de certains de leurs métabolites ont été développées et validées en utilisant la chromatographie liquide coupée à la spectrométrie de masse en tandem. Ces méthodes ont été appliquées pour la surveillance des taux d'ARVs dans diverses populations de patients HIV-positifs. Une étude clinique a été initiée dans le cadre de l'étude VIH Suisse de cohorte mère-enfant afin de déterminer si la grossesse influence la cinétique des ARVs. Les concentrations totales et libres du lopînavir, de l'atazanavir et de la névirapine ont été déterminées chez les femmes enceintes suivies pendant leur grossesse, et celles-ci ont été trouvées non influencées de manière cliniquement significative par la grossesse. Un ajustement posologique de ces ARVs n'est donc pas nécessaire chez les femmes enceintes. Lors d'une petite étude chez des patients HIV- positifs expérimentés, la corrélation entre l'exposition cellulaire et plasmatique des nouveaux ARVs, notamment le raltégravir, a été déterminée. Une bonne corrélation a été obtenue entre taux plasmatiques et cellulaires de raltégravir, suggérant que la surveillance des taux totaux est un substitut satisfaisant. Cependant, une importante variabilité inter¬patient a été observée dans les ratios d'accumulation cellulaire du raltégravir, ce qui devrait encourager des investigations supplémentaires chez les patients en échec sous ce traitement. L'efficacité du suivi thérapeutique des médicaments (TDM) pour l'adaptation des taux d'efavirenz chez des patients avec des concentrations au-dessus de la cible thérapeutique recommandée a été évaluée lors d'une étude prospective. L'adaptation des doses d'efavirenz basée sur le TDM s'est montrée efficace et sûre, soutenant l'utilisation du TDM chez les patients avec concentrations hors cible thérapeutique. L'impact des polymorphismes génétiques des cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 et 3A4/5 sur la pharmacocinétique de l'efavirenz et de ces métabolites a été étudié : un modèle de PK de population intégrant les covariats génétiques et démographiques a été construit. Les variations génétiques fonctionnelles dans les voies de métabolisation principales (CYP2B6) et accessoires {CYP2A6et 3A4/S) de l'efavirenz ont un impact sur sa disposition, et peuvent mener à des expositions extrêmes au médicament. Un? ajustement des doses guidé par le TDM est donc recommandé chez ces patients, en accord avec les polymorphismes génétiques.Ainsi, nous avons démonté qu'en utilisant une approche globale tenant compte à la fois des facteurs PK et PG influençant l'exposition aux ARVs chez les patients infectés, il est possible, si nécessaire, d'individualiser la thérapie antirétrovirale dans des situations diverses. L'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral contribue vraisemblablement à une meilleure efficacité thérapeutique à iong terme tout en réduisant la survenue d'effets indésirables.Résumé grand publicOptimisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale: approches pharmacocinétiques et pharmacogénétiquesLes progrès effectués dans le traitement de l'infection par le virus de llmmunodéficienoe humaine acquise (VIH) ont permis de transformer une affection mortelle en une maladie chronique traitable avec des médicaments de plus en plus efficaces. Malgré ce succès, un certain nombre de patients ne répondent pas de façon optimale à leur traitement etyou souffrent d'effets indésirables médicamenteux entraînant de fréquentes modifications dans leur thérapie. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence que l'efficacité d'un traitement antirétroviral est dans la plupart des cas corrélée aux concentrations de médicaments mesurées dans le sang des patients. Cependant, le virus se réplique dans la cellule, et seule la fraction des médicaments non liée aux protéines du plasma sanguin peut entrer dans la cellule et exercer l'activité antirétrovirale au niveau cellulaire. Il existe par ailleurs une importante variabilité des concentrations sanguines de médicament chez des patients prenant pourtant la même dose de médicament. Cette variabilité peut être due à des facteurs démographiques et/ou génétiques susceptibles d'influencer la réponse au traitement antirétroviral.Cette thèse a eu pour objectif de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacologiques et génétiques influençant l'efficacité et ta toxicité des médicaments antirétroviraux, dans le but d'individualiser la thérapie antivirale et d'améliorer le suivi des patients HIV-positifs.A cet effet, des méthodes de dosage très sensibles ont été développées pour permettre la quantification des médicaments antirétroviraux dans le sang et les cellules. Ces méthodes analytiques ont été appliquées dans le cadre de diverses études cliniques réalisées avec des patients. Une des études cliniques a recherché s'il y avait un impact des changements physiologiques liés à la grossesse sur les concentrations des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons ainsi pu démontrer que la grossesse n'influençait pas de façon cliniquement significative le devenir des médicaments antirétroviraux chez les femmes enceintes HIV- positives. La posologie de médicaments ne devrait donc pas être modifiée dans cette population de patientes. Par ailleurs, d'autres études ont portés sur les variations génétiques des patients influençant l'activité enzymatique des protéines impliquées dans le métabolisme des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons également étudié l'utilité d'une surveillance des concentrations de médicament (suivi thérapeutique) dans le sang des patients pour l'individualisation des traitements antiviraux. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence des relations significatives entre l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux et l'existence chez les patients de certaines variations génétiques. Nos analyses ont également permis d'étudier les relations entre les concentrations dans le sang des patients et les taux mesurés dans les cellules où le virus HIV se réplique. De plus, la mesure des taux sanguins de médicaments antirétroviraux et leur interprétation a permis d'ajuster la posologie de médicaments chez les patients de façon efficace et sûre.Ainsi, la complémentarité des connaissances pharmacologiques, génétiques et virales s'inscrit dans l'optique d'une stratégie globale de prise en charge du patient et vise à l'individualisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale en fonction des caractéristiques propres de chaque individu. Cette approche contribue ainsi à l'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral dans la perspective d'un succès du traitement à long terme tout en réduisant la probabilité des effets indésirables rencontrés. - The improvement in antirétroviral therapy has transformed HIV infection from an inevitably fatal condition to a chronic, manageable disease. However, treatment failure and drug toxicity are frequent. Inadequate response to treatment is clearly multifactorial and, therefore, dosage individualisation based on demographic factors, genetic markers and measurement of total, free and/or cellular drug level may increase both drug efficacy and tolerability. Drug tolerability is certainly a major issue for a treatment that must be taken indefinitely.The global objective of this thesis aimed at increasing our current understanding of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacogenetic (PG) factors influencing the exposition to antirétroviral drugs (ARVs) in HIV-positive patients. In turn, this should provide us with a rational basis for antiviral treatment optimisation and drug dosage adjustment in HIV- positive patients. Patient's tailored antirétroviral regimen is likely to enhance treatment effectiveness and tolerability, enabling a better compliance over time, and hence reducing the probability of emergence of viral resistance and treatment failure.To that endeavour, analytical methods for the measurement of total plasma, free and cellular concentrations of ARVs and some of their metabolites have been developed and validated using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. These assays have been applied for the monitoring of ARVs levels in various populations of HIV- positive patients. A clinical study has been initiated within the frame of the Mother and Child Swiss HIV Cohort Study to determine whether pregnancy influences the exposition to ARVs. Free and total plasma concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir and nevirapine have been determined in pregnant women followed during the course of pregnancy, and were found not influenced to a clinically significant extent by pregnancy. Dosage adjustment for these drugs is therefore not required in pregnant women. In a study in treatment- experienced HIV-positive patients, the correlation between cellular and total plasma exposure to new antirétroviral drugs, notably the HIV integrase inhibitor raltegravir, has been determined. A good correlation was obtained between total and cellular levels of raltegravir, suggesting that monitoring of total levels are a satisfactory. However, significant inter-patient variability was observed in raltegravir cell accumulation which should prompt further investigations in patients failing under an integrase inhibitor-based regimen. The effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to guide efavirenz dose reduction in patients having concentrations above the recommended therapeutic range was evaluated in a prospective study. TDM-guided dosage adjustment of efavirenz was found feasible and safe, supporting the use of TDM in patients with efavirenz concentrations above therapeutic target. The impact of genetic polymorphisms of cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 and 3A4/5 on the PK of efavirenz and its metabolites was studied: a population PK model was built integrating both genetic and demographic covariates. Functional genetic variations in main (CYP2B6) and accessory (2A6, 3A4/5) metabolic pathways of efavirenz have an impact on efavirenz disposition, and may lead to extreme drug exposures. Dosage adjustment guided by TDM is thus required in those patients, according to the pharmacogenetic polymorphism.Thus, we have demonstrated, using a comprehensive approach taking into account both PK and PG factors influencing ARVs exposure in HIV-infected patients, the feasibility of individualising antirétroviral therapy in various situations. Antiviral treatment optimisation is likely to increase long-term treatment success while reducing the occurrence of adverse drug reactions.

Radio-frequency ablation as primary management of well-tolerated sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia in patients with structural heart disease and left ventricular ejection fraction over 30%.

AIMS: Patients with well-tolerated sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) over 30% may benefit from a primary strategy of VT ablation without immediate need for a 'back-up' implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-six patients with structural heart disease (SHD), LVEF over 30%, and well-tolerated SMVT (no syncope) underwent primary radiofrequency ablation without ICD implantation at eight European centres. There were 139 men (84%) with mean age 62 ± 15 years and mean LVEF of 50 ± 10%. Fifty-five percent had ischaemic heart disease, 19% non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy, and 12% arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. Three hundred seventy-eight similar patients were implanted with an ICD during the same period and serve as a control group. All-cause mortality was 12% (20 patients) over a mean follow-up of 32 ± 27 months. Eight patients (40%) died from non-cardiovascular causes, 8 (40%) died from non-arrhythmic cardiovascular causes, and 4 (20%) died suddenly (SD) (2.4% of the population). All-cause mortality in the control group was 12%. Twenty-seven patients (16%) had a non-fatal recurrence at a median time of 5 months, while 20 patients (12%) required an ICD, of whom 4 died (20%). CONCLUSION: Patients with well-tolerated SMVT, SHD, and LVEF > 30% undergoing primary VT ablation without a back-up ICD had a very low rate of arrhythmic death and recurrences were generally non-fatal. These data would support a randomized clinical trial comparing this approach with others incorporating implantation of an ICD as a primary strategy.

Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons. METHODS: Self-reported information on sexual preference, sexual partners, and condom use was collected at semi-annual visits in all participants of the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study from April 2007 through March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to investigate associations between characteristics of cohort participants and condom use. FINDINGS: A total of 7309 participants contributed to 21,978 visits. A total of 4291 persons (80%) reported sexual contacts with stable partners, 1646 (30%) with occasional partners, and 557 (10%) with stable and occasional partners. Of the study participants, 5838 (79.9%) of 7309 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and of these, 4816 patients (82%) had a suppressed viral load. Condom use varied widely and differed by type of partner (visits with stable partners, 10,368 [80%] of 12,983; visits with occasional partners, 4300 [88%] of 4880) and by serostatus of stable partner (visits with HIV-negative partners, 7105 [89%] of 8174; visits with HIV-positive partners, 1453 [48%] of 2999). Participants were more likely to report unprotected sex with stable partners if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy, if HIV replication was suppressed, and after the publication of the "Swiss statement." Noninjection drug use and moderate or severe alcohol use were associated with unprotected sex. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV RNA titers influence sexual behavior of HIV-positive persons. Noninjection illicit drug and alcohol use are important risk factors for unprotected sexual contacts.

Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Inhabitants' and professionals' social representations of health determinants in a disadvantaged urban area in France: a qualitative analysis = représentations sociales des déterminants de santé dans une zone urbaine défavorisée en France : analyse qualitative auprès d'habitants et de professionnels

Background and objective. - Access to care in French disadvantaged urban areas remains an issue despite the implementation of local healthcare structures. To understand this contradiction, we investigated social representations held by inhabitants of such areas, as well as those of social and healthcare professionals, regarding events or behaviours that can impact low-income individuals' health. Method. - In the context of a health diagnosis, 288 inhabitants living in five disadvantaged districts of Aix-les-Bains, as well as 28 professionals working in these districts, completed an open-ended questionnaire. The two groups of respondents were asked to describe what could have an impact on health status from the inhabitants' point of view. The textual responses were analyzed using the Alceste method. Results. - We observed a number of differences in the way the inhabitants and professionals represented determinants of health in disadvantaged urban areas: the former proposed a representation mixing personal responsibility with physiological, social, familial, and professional aspects, whereas the latter associated health issues with marginalization (financial, drug, or alcohol problems) and personal responsibility. Both inhabitants and professionals mentioned control over events and lifestyle as determinants of health. Discussion. - The results are discussed regarding the consequences of these different representations on the beneficiary - healthcare-provider relationship in terms of communication and trust.

Attachment and temperament in early childhood; implications for later behavior problems.

In the context of a French validation study, the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) was administered to more than 3000 French speaking mothers of 5-year-old children. Scores were factor-analyzed. Principal components analysis revealed four dimensions: externalizing and internalizing behavior problems, immaturity and somatoform disorders. Another sample of 40 mothers participated in a longitudinal study, filling in the CBCL when their children were 5 years old. These children had been observed previously in the Strange Situation (SSP) at 21 months. Several dichotomous variables derived from the SSP (e.g. secure versus insecure, proximal versus distal interaction with the mother, avoidant behavior) have been used as predictors of the four dimensions extracted from the CBCL. Hierarchical regressions showed that proximal behaviors with the mother, which reflect temperamental characteristics independently of the quality of attachment, predicted internalizing problems, whereas avoidance of the mother, or insecure-avoidant attachment, predicted internalizing as well as externalizing problems at 5 years of age. These results show that attachment and temperament, as assessed by the SSP, may each have specific implications for later behavior problems.

Health problems among detainees in Switzerland: a study using the ICPC-2 classification.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the health status of prisoners in Switzerland. The aim of this study was to provide a detailed description of the health problems presented by detainees in Switzerland's largest remand prison. METHODS: In this retrospective cross-sectional study we reviewed the health records of all detainees leaving Switzerland's largest remand prison in 2007. The health problems were coded using the International Classification for Primary Care (ICPC-2). Analyses were descriptive, stratified by gender. RESULTS: A total of 2195 health records were reviewed. Mean age was 29.5 years (SD 9.5); 95% were male; 87.8% were migrants. Mean length of stay was 80 days (SD 160). Illicit drug use (40.2%) and mental health problems (32.6%) were frequent, but most of these detainees (57.6%) had more generic primary care problems, such as skin (27.0%), infectious diseases (23.5%), musculoskeletal (19.2%), injury related (18.3%), digestive (15.0%) or respiratory problems (14.0%). Furthermore, 7.9% reported exposure to violence during arrest by the police. CONCLUSION: Morbidity is high in this young, predominantly male population of detainees, in particular in relation to substance abuse. Other health problems more commonly seen in general practice are also frequent. These findings support the further development of coordinated primary care and mental health services within detention centers.

Pregnancy and reproduction in autoimmune rheumatic diseases.

Despite evidence for the important role of oestrogens in the aetiology and pathophysiology of chronic immune/inflammatory diseases, the previous view of an unequivocal beneficial effect of oestrogens on RA compared with a detrimental effect on SLE has to be reconsidered. Likewise, the long-held belief that RA remits in the majority of pregnant patients has been challenged, and shows that only half of the patients experience significant improvement when objective disease activity measurements are applied. Pregnancies in patients with SLE are mostly successful when well planned and monitored interdisciplinarily, whereas a small proportion of women with APS still have adverse pregnancy outcomes in spite of the standard treatment. New prospective studies indicate better outcomes for pregnancies in women with rare diseases such as SSc and vasculitis. Fertility problems are not uncommon in patients with rheumatic disease and need to be considered in both genders. Necessary therapy, shortly before or during the pregnancy, demands taking into account the health of both mother and fetus. Long-term effects of drugs on offspring exposed in utero or during lactation is a new area under study as well as late effects of maternal rheumatic disease on children.

Intra- and intersexual selection and their potential consequences on fitness-relevant traits in several fish species

Résumé : Les mécanismes de sélection sexuelle, en particulier la compétition entre mâles (sélection inter-sexuelle) et le choix des femelles (sélection intra-sexuelle), peuvent fortement influencer le succès reproducteur d'un individu, c'est-à-dire son nombre de descendants. On observe ainsi que les mâles dominants et les mâles élaborant des caractères sexuels secondaires marqués ont un succès reproducteur élevé. Toutefois, le succès reproducteur ne suffit pas pour garantir une contribution génétique élevée, parce que la fitness dépend également de la performance des descendants (c'est-à-dire de leur survie et de leur propre succès reproducteur). Si cette performance dépend en partie des gènes paternels, les males ont un avantage certain à signaler leur qualité aux femelles afin d'atteindre des taux de reproduction élevé. Ce mécanisme de signalisation est connu sous le nom de 'good genes hypothesis', toutefois très peu d'études ont clairement démontré le lien entre la qualité génétique des individus et la signalisation. De plus, la performance des descendants peut aussi dépendre des effets génétiques de compatibilité entre mâles et femelles ('compatible genes'). C'est-à-dire que certains allèles paternels n'apporteraient un avantage aux descendants qu'en combinaison avec certains allèles maternels. Nous avons déterminé, durant la période de reproduction, le statut de dominance des mâles pour deux espèces de poissons d'eau douce : la truite (Salmo trotta) et le vairon (Phoxinus phoxinus), puis nous avons évalué la relation entre le succès reproducteur et le statut de dominance et/ou la quantité de signalisation des caractères sexuels secondaires. Nous avons également fécondés artificiellement des oeufs de truites et de corégones (Coregonus palaea), en croisant chaque mâle avec chaque femelle (full-factorial breeding design). Ce type de design autorise la quantification précise des effets génétiques et permet de séparer les effets de 'good genes' et de 'compatible genes'. Cela a été fait sous différentes intensités de stress bactérien, ainsi que dans des conditions naturelles, et nous avons pu ainsi tester si certains indicateurs de qualité génétique des mâles ('good genes') étaient liés a) à la dominance et/ou b) à l'expression des caractères sexuels secondaires des mâles comme l'intensité mélanique ou la taille des tubercules sexuels. En outre, nous cherchons à savoir si la survie des descendants est liée à certaines combinaison des gènes du complexe d'histocompatibilité majeur (MHC) et/ou à la parenté génétique des parents, les deux traits étant soupçonnés d'avoir des influences génétique de compatibilité (`compatible genes') à la performance des descendants. Nous avons constaté que la dominance des mâles est directement liée à la taille et au poids des mâles (truites, vairons), mais également aux caractères sexuels secondaires (tubercules). De plus, les mâles vairons dominant ont eu un succès de fécondation plus élevés que les mâles subordonnés. Nous montrons que les truites et corégones mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique, qui a été mesurée avéc la survie embryonnaire, le temps avant l'éclosion et enfin la croissance juvénile. Contrairement aux prédictions, la dominance (ou les traits indicatifs de dominance) n'était liée à la qualité génétique, dans aucun des traitements, et ne fonctionne donc pas comme indicateur de qualité. Par contre, la qualité génétique était liée aux caractères sexuels secondaires, particulièrement par la teinte mélanique chez les truites. Les embryons de truites issus de pères sombres survivaient mieux que ceux issus de pères clairs dans des environnements difficiles, de plus leur croissance était plus élevée lors de leur première année dans des conditions naturelles. La taille des juvéniles lors de leur première année est un trait important lié au succès dans la compétition pour des ressources telles qu'abri ou nourriture. De plus, les femelles truites peuvent augmenter la survie de leurs descendants en choisissant des mâles selon leur type de MHC ou selon leur degré de parenté. En outre, chez les corégones, la morphologie des tubercules sexuels ne semble pas signaler la qualité génétique. Nous avons également remarqué que l'exposition à des pathogènes non-létaux pouvait influencer la performance des alevins à court et long terme, probablement en affaiblissant leur système immunitaire. Cette thèse montre que les mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique et que différents mécanismes de sélection inter- ou intra-sexuelle (par exemple la préférence pour des mâles sombres, pour des génotypes MHC ou pour des couples avec degré de parenté basse) pouvait avoir un effet positif sur la qualité des descendants, bien que cet effet génétique pouvait changer au cours du temps et entre différents environnements. Contrairement à nos attentes, le résultat de la compétition intra-sexuelle (la hiérarchie de dominance entre mâles) n'était pas lié à la qualité génétique individuelle ('good genes'). Dans ce sens, ce travail permet également de contribuer à l'explication du fait que la sélection sexuelle, de par sa forte sélection directionnelle, ne conduit pas à la diminution de la variance génétique, mais plutôt à la maintenance du polymorphisme génétique. Summary : Sexual selection mechanisms, especially male-male competition (inteasexual selection) and female mate choice (inteasexual selection), can strongly influence individual mating success, often resulting in dominant males and males with elaborate secondary sexual characters having higher fertilisation success. However, siring a high number of offspring alone does not guarantee high individual fitness, as fitness does also strongly depend on offspring performance (i.e. survival, fecundity). If this superiority in offspring performance depends on paternally inherited genes, the fathers are expected to signal this potential indirect benefit to females in order to attain high mating rates. This mechanism is also known as the 'good genes' hypothesis of sexual selection but until now most studies failed to conclusively show the relation of an individual genetic quality and its potential signalling traits. Further, offspring performance could also depend on compatible gene effects. These are alleles that increase offspring performance only in combination with other specific alleles. We first determined male dominance status from intrasexual competition during mating season for brown trout (Salmo trutta) and European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus). For minnows we additionally checked if dominance and/or secondary sexual traits were linked to fertilisation success. Further, we artificially fertilised brown trout and alpine whitefish (Coregonus palaea) eggs, following full factorial breeding designs, enabling to properly measure `good gene' and `compatible gene' effects on offspring performance. This was done under different intensities of natural stressors, as well as under natural conditions. This procedure allowed us to test if the obtained male genetic quality measures (good genes effects) were indicated by a) dominance or lay traits linked to dominance and/or by b) secondary sexual characteristics such as melanin-based male skin darkness or breeding tubercles. Further, we investigated if offspring survival was linked to the MHC (major histocompatibility complex) gene combinations and/or to the parental genetic relatedness, as both traits were shown to have 'compatible gene' effects that may influence offspring performance. We found that male dominance in intrasexual competition was positively linked to body size, body weight (brown trout, minnows) but also to elaborate secondary sexual characteristics (breeding tubercles in minnows). Further, dominant minnow males did have an increased fertilisation success compared to subordinate ones. We show that brown trout and whitefish males do usually differ in their genetic quality, which was measured as embryo survival, hatching timing and finally as juvenile growth. Contrary to prediction male dominance or dominance indicating traits do not function as a quality signal as they were not linked to genetic quality. This result was constant when measuring genetic quality under different levels of natural stressors and under natural conditions (brown trout). On the other hand genetic quality seemed to be indicated by secondary sexual characteristics, specifically by melanin-based skin darkness in brown trout as brown trout embryos sired by darker fathers had increased survival rates when raised under harsh conditions and. they grew larger as juveniles after one year of growth in a natural stream, which is an important trait influencing success of juveniles in competition for hidings, food and other resources. Furthermore, brown trout females may increase the survival of their embryos when choosing males according to their MHC genotypes or to the general genetic relatedness between themselves and their potential mates. In whitefish on the other hand breeding tubercle morphology did not seem to signal genetic quality. Eventually, we saw that anon-lethal exposure to pathogens might influence short term and long term offspring performance probably by weakening an exposed individual's immune system. This thesis shows that males usually differ in their genetic quality and that different inter- or intrasexual selection mechanisms (e.g. mate selection favouring dark males, preference for MHC genotype combinations or for unrelated mates) may have strong positive effects on genetically dependent offspring performance but that such genetìc effects can change over time and environments. In contrast to our a priori expectations, the outcome of intrasexual selection, namely male dominance hierarchies, with dominant males often having high fertilisation success, was not linked to individual genetic quality (`good genes'). In this sense the present thesis may also be a helpful contribution to understand why sexual selection does not lead to rapid loss of genetic variation by strong directional selection but could even lead to the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Cytogenetic response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients: concentration dependency and associated influences under field-conditions

Introduction: Imatinib, a first-line drug for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations >=1000 ng/ml (Cmin) have been associated with improved molecular and complete cytogenetic response (CCyR). The pharmacological monitoring project of EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study) was launched to validate retrospectively the correlation between Cmin and response in a large population of patients followed by central TDM in Bordeaux.¦Methods: 1898 CML patients with first TDM 0-9 years after imatinib initiation, providing cytogenetic data along with demographic and comedication (37%) information, were included. Individual Cmin, estimated by non-linear regression (NONMEM), was adjusted to initial standard dose (400 mg/day) and stratified at 1000 ng/ml. Kaplan-Meier estimates of overall cumulative CCyR rates (stratified by sex, age, comedication and Cmin) were compared using asymptotic logrank k-sample test for interval-censored data. Differences in Cmin were assessed by Wilcoxon test.¦Results: There were no significant differences in overall cumulative CCyR rates between Cmin strata, sex and comedication with P-glycoprotein inhibitors/inducers or CYP3A4 inhibitors (p >0.05). Lower rates were observed in 113 young patients <30 years (p = 0.037; 1-year rates: 43% vs 60% in older patients), as well as in 29 patients with CYP3A4 inducers (p = 0.001, 1-year rates: 40% vs 66% without). Higher rates were observed in 108 patients on organic-cation-transporter-1 (hOCT-1) inhibitors (p = 0.034, 1-year rates: 83% vs 56% without). Considering 1-year CCyR rates, a trend towards better response for Cmin above 1000 ng/ml was observed: 64% (95%CI: 60-69%) vs 59% (95%CI: 56-61%). Median Cmin (400 mg/day) was significantly reduced in male patients (732 vs 899ng/ml, p <0.001), young patients <30 years (734 vs 802 ng/ml, p = 0.037) and under CYP3A4 inducers (758 vs 859 ng/ml, p = 0.022). Under hOCT-1 inhibitors, Cmin was increased (939 vs 827 ng/ml, p = 0.038).¦Conclusion: Based on observational TDM data, the impact of imatinib Cmin >1000 ng/ml on CCyR was not salient. Young CML patients (<30 years) and patients taking CYP3A4 inducers probably need close monitoring and possibly higher imatinib doses, due to lower Cmin along with lower CCyR rates. Patients taking hOCT-1 inhibitors seem in contrast to have improved CCyR response rates. The precise role for imatinib TDM remains to be established prospectively.

Current trends in illegal drug use and drug related health problems in Switzerland.

As part of the evaluation of the Confederation's measures to reduce drug related problems, a review of available data on drug use and drug related problems in Switzerland has been conducted. Source of data included: population surveys (adults and teenagers), surveys among drug users, health statistics (drug related and AIDS related deaths, HIV case reporting, drug treatments) police statistics (denunciations for consumption). The aims of reducing the number of dependent hard drug users have been achieved where heroin is concerned. In particular, there seems to have been a decrease in the number of people becoming addicted to this substance. For all other illegal substances, especially cannabis, the trend is towards an increased use, as in many European countries. As regards dependent drug users, especially injecting drug users, progress has been made in the area of harm reduction and treatment coverage. This epidemiological assessment can be used in the discussions currently engaged about the revision of the Law governing narcotics and will be a baseline for future follow up of the situation.