Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Isothermal microcalorimetry: a novel method for real-time determination of antifungal susceptibility of Aspergillus species.

We evaluated microcalorimetry for real-time susceptibility testing of Aspergillus spp. based on growth-related heat production. The minimal heat inhibitory concentration (MHIC) for A. fumigatus ATCC 204305 was 1 mg/L for amphotericin B, 0.25 mg/L for voriconazole, 0.06 mg/L for posaconazole, 0.125 mg/L for caspofungin and 0.03 mg/L for anidulafungin. Agreement within two 2-fold dilutions between MHIC (determined by microcalorimetry) and MIC or MEC (determined by CLSI M38A) was 90% for amphotericin B, 100% for voriconazole, 90% for posaconazole and 70% for caspofungin. This proof-of-concept study demonstrated the potential of isothermal microcalorimetry for growth evaluation of Aspergillus spp. and real-time antifungal susceptibility testing.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

In vitro combination of human and bovine free secretory component with IgA of various species.

The free form of the secretory component usually associated with secretory IgA can be isolated from human and bovine milk. These free secretory components of different origin combine in vitro with human polymeric myeloma IgA, with mouse myeloma IgA, and with the serum IgA of nine different mammalian species.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

Inferring the mode of origin of polyploid species from next-generation sequence data.

Many eukaryote organisms are polyploid. However, despite their importance, evolutionary inference of polyploid origins and modes of inheritance has been limited by a need for analyses of allele segregation at multiple loci using crosses. The increasing availability of sequence data for nonmodel species now allows the application of established approaches for the analysis of genomic data in polyploids. Here, we ask whether approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), applied to realistic traditional and next-generation sequence data, allows correct inference of the evolutionary and demographic history of polyploids. Using simulations, we evaluate the robustness of evolutionary inference by ABC for tetraploid species as a function of the number of individuals and loci sampled, and the presence or absence of an outgroup. We find that ABC adequately retrieves the recent evolutionary history of polyploid species on the basis of both old and new sequencing technologies. The application of ABC to sequence data from diploid and polyploid species of the plant genus Capsella confirms its utility. Our analysis strongly supports an allopolyploid origin of C. bursa-pastoris about 80 000 years ago. This conclusion runs contrary to previous findings based on the same data set but using an alternative approach and is in agreement with recent findings based on whole-genome sequencing. Our results indicate that ABC is a promising and powerful method for revealing the evolution of polyploid species, without the need to attribute alleles to a homeologous chromosome pair. The approach can readily be extended to more complex scenarios involving higher ploidy levels.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Identification of parasitoid species using PCR amplification and restriction enzyme digestion

Spodoptera frugiperda is a pest of great economic importance in the Americas. It is attacked by several species of parasitoids, which act as biological control agents. Parasitoids are morphologically identifiable as adults, but not as larvae. Laboratory rearing conditions are not always optimal to rear out parasitic wasps from S. frugiperda larvae collected from wild populations, and it frequently happens that parasitoids do not complete their life cycle and stop developing at the larval stage. Therefore, we explored ways to identify parasitoid larvae using molecular techniques. Sequencing is one possible technique, yet it is expensive. Here we present an alternate, cheaper way of identifying seven species of parasitoids (Cotesia marginiventris, Campoletis sonorensis, Pristomerus spinator, Chelonus insularis, Chelonus cautus, Eiphosoma vitticolle and Meteorus laphygmae) using PCR amplification of COI gene followed by a digestion with a combination of four restriction endonucleases. Each species was found to exhibit a specific pattern when the amplification product was run on an agarose gel. Identifying larvae revealed that conclusions on species composition of a population of parasitic wasps can be biased if only the emerging adults are taken into account.

Comparative genomics suggests primary homothallism of Pneumocystis species.

UNLABELLED: Pneumocystis species are fungal parasites of mammal lungs showing host specificity. Pneumocystis jirovecii colonizes humans and causes severe pneumonia in immunosuppressed individuals. In the absence of in vitro cultures, the life cycle of these fungi remains poorly known. Sexual reproduction probably occurs, but the system of this process and the mating type (MAT) genes involved are not characterized. In the present study, we used comparative genomics to investigate the issue in P. jirovecii and Pneumocystis carinii, the species infecting rats, as well as in their relative Taphrina deformans. We searched sex-related genes using 103 sequences from the relative Schizosaccharomyces pombe as queries. Genes homologous to several sex-related role categories were identified in all species investigated, further supporting sexuality in these organisms. Extensive in silico searches identified only three putative MAT genes in each species investigated (matMc, matMi, and matPi). In P. jirovecii, these genes clustered on the same contig, proving their contiguity in the genome. This organization seems compatible neither with heterothallism, because two different MAT loci on separate DNA molecules would have been detected, nor with secondary homothallism, because the latter involves generally more MAT genes. Consistently, we did not detect cis-acting sequences for mating type switching in secondary homothallism, and PCR revealed identical MAT genes in P. jirovecii isolates from six patients. A strong synteny of the genomic region surrounding the putative MAT genes exists between the two Pneumocystis species. Our results suggest the hypothesis that primary homothallism is the system of reproduction of Pneumocystis species and T. deformans. IMPORTANCE: Sexual reproduction among fungi can involve a single partner (homothallism) or two compatible partners (heterothallism). We investigated the issue in three pathogenic fungal relatives: Pneumocystis jirovecii, which causes severe pneumonia in immunocompromised humans; Pneumocystis carinii, which infects rats; and the plant pathogen Taphrina deformans. The nature, the number, and the organization within the genome of the genes involved in sexual reproduction were determined. The three species appeared to harbor a single genomic region gathering only three genes involved in sexual differentiation, an organization which is compatible with sexual reproduction involving a single partner. These findings illuminate the strategy adopted by fungal pathogens to infect their hosts.

Distribution and population genetic variation of cryptic species of the Alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in the Central Alps.

BACKGROUND: Many species contain evolutionarily distinct groups that are genetically highly differentiated but morphologically difficult to distinguish (i.e., cryptic species). The presence of cryptic species poses significant challenges for the accurate assessment of biodiversity and, if unrecognized, may lead to erroneous inferences in many fields of biological research and conservation. RESULTS: We tested for cryptic genetic variation within the broadly distributed alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus across several major European drainages in the central Alps. Bayesian clustering and multivariate analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci, combined with phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA, were used to assess population genetic structure and diversity. We identified two genetically highly differentiated lineages (A and B) that had no obvious differences in regional distribution patterns, and occurred in local sympatry. Furthermore, the two lineages differed in relative abundance, overall levels of genetic diversity as well as patterns of population structure: lineage A was abundant, widely distributed and had a higher level of genetic variation, whereas lineage B was less abundant, more prevalent in spring-fed tributaries than glacier-fed streams and restricted to high elevations. Subsequent morphological analyses revealed that traits previously acknowledged as intraspecific variation of B. alpinus in fact segregated these two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings indicate that even common and apparently ecologically well-studied species may consist of reproductively isolated units, with distinct evolutionary histories and likely different ecology and evolutionary potential. These findings emphasize the need to investigate hidden diversity even in well-known species to allow for appropriate assessment of biological diversity and conservation measures.