Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Generation and phenotypic analysis of protein S-deficient mice.

Protein S (PS) is an important natural anticoagulant with potentially multiple biologic functions. To investigate further the role of PS in vivo, we generated Pros(+/-) heterozygous mice. In the null (-) allele, the Pros exons 3 to 7 have been excised through conditional gene targeting. Pros(+/-) mice did not present any signs of spontaneous thrombosis and had reduced PS plasma levels and activated protein C cofactor activity in plasma coagulation and thrombin generation assays. Tissue factor pathway inhibitor cofactor activity of PS could not be demonstrated. Heterozygous Pros(+/-) mice exhibited a notable thrombotic phenotype in vivo when challenged in a tissue factor-induced thromboembolism model. No viable Pros(-/-) mice were obtained through mating of Pros(+/-) parents. Most E17.5 Pros(-/-) embryos were found dead with severe intracranial hemorrhages and most likely presented consumptive coagulopathy, as demonstrated by intravascular and interstitial fibrin deposition and an increased number of megakaryocytes in the liver, suggesting peripheral thrombocytopenia. A few E17.5 Pros(-/-) embryos had less severe phenotype, indicating that life-threatening manifestations might occur between E17.5 and the full term. Thus, similar to human phenotypes, mild heterozygous PS deficiency in mice was associated with a thrombotic phenotype, whereas total homozygous deficiency in PS was incompatible with life.

Nonvitamin-k-antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

Respiratory viruses in lung transplant recipients: a critical review and pooled analysis of clinical studies.

Lung transplant recipients present an increased risk for severe complications associated with respiratory infections. We conducted a review of the literature examining the clinical relationship between viral respiratory infection and graft complications. Thirty-four studies describing the clinical impact of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus, coronavirus, bocavirus or adenovirus were identified. The detection rate of respiratory viral infection ranged from 1.4% to 60%. Viruses were detected five times more frequently when respiratory symptoms were present [odds ratio (OR) = 4.97; 95% CI = 2.11-11.68]. Based on available observations, we could not observe an association between respiratory viral infection and acute rejection (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 0.41-4.43). We found a pooled incidence of 18% (9/50) of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in virus-positive cases compared to 11.6% (37/319) in virus-negative cases; however, limited number of BOS events did not allow to confirm the association. Our review confirms a causal relationship between respiratory viruses and respiratory symptoms, but cannot confirm a link between respiratory viruses and acute lung rejection. This is related in part to the heterogeneity and limitations of available studies. The link with BOS needs also to be reassessed in appropriate prospective studies.

Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

Role of ENaC in skin wound healing and phenotypic analysis of GILZ-deficient mice

In my first project, I analyzed the role of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel ENaC) in the skin during wound healing. ENaC is present in the skin and a function in keratinocyte differentiation and barrier formation has been demonstrated. Previous findings suggested, that ENaC might be implicated in keratinocyte migration, although its role in wound healing was not analyzed yet. Using skin-specific (K14-Cre) conditional ENaC knockout and overexpressing mice, I determined the wound closure kinetic and performed morphometric measurements. The time course of wound repair was not significantly different in knockouts or transgenics when compared to control mice and the morphology of the closing wound was not altered. In my second project, I studied the glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ is widely expressed and an important role has been predicted in immunity, adipogenesis and renal sodium handling. Mice were generated that constitutively lack all the functional domains of the Gilz gene. In these mice, the expression of GILZ mRNA transcripts and protein were completely abolished in all tissues tested. Surprisingly, knockout mice survived. To test whether GILZ mimicks glucocorticoid action, we studied its implication in T- and B- cell development and in a model of sepsis. We measured cytokine secretion in different inflammatory models, like in peritoneal and bone marrow-derived macrophages, in splenocytes and a model of sepsis. In all our experiments, cytokine secretion from GILZ- deficient cells was not different from controls. From 6 months onwards, knockout mice contained significantly less body fat and were lighter. Following sodium and water deprivation experiments, water and salt homeostasis was preserved. Sterility of knockout males was associated with a severe testis dysplasia, smaller seminiferous tubules, the number of Sertoli and germ cell was reduced while increased apoptosis, but not cell proliferation, was evidenced. The interstitial Leydig cell population was augmented, and higher plasma FSH and testosterone levels were found. Interestingly, the expression of the target gene Ppar2 was diminished in the testis and in the liver, but not in the skin, kidney or fat. Tsc22d1 mRNA transcript level was found to be upregulated in testis, but not in the kidney or fat tissue. In most tissue, excepted the testis, GILZ-deficient mice reveal functional redundancy amongst members of the Tsc22d family or genes involved in the same regulatory pathways. In summary, contrarily to the published in vitro data, GILZ does not play a crucial role attributed in immunology or inflammation, but we identified a novel function in spermatogenesis. -- Dans mon premier projet, j'ai analysé le rôle du canal épithélial sodique sensible à l'amiloride (ENaC) dans la cicatrisation de la peau. ENaC est présent dans la peau et il a une fonction dans la différenciation des kératinocytes et dans la formation de la barrière. Des études suggèrent qu'ENaC pourrait être impliqué dans la migration des kératinocytes, cependant, son rôle dans la cicatrisation n'a pas encore été étudié. A l'aide de souris qui surexpriment ou qui sont knockout pour ENaC, spécifiquement dans la peau (K14-Cre), j'ai analysé le temps de clôture de la cicatrice et j'ai aussi étudié la morphologie de la plaie guérissant. Chez les souris qui surexpriment ou chez les knockouts, la vitesse de fermeture et la morphologie de la cicatrice étaient identiques aux souris contrôles. Dans mon second projet, j'ai étudié le glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ est largement exprimé et un rôle important a été prédit dans l'immunité, l'adipogénèse et le transport sodique rénal. Des souris ont été générées dont les domaines fonctionnels du gène Gilz sont éliminés. L'expression de GILZ en ARNm et protéine a été complètement abolie dans tous les tissus testés. Étonnamment, ces souris knockout survivent. Afin de tester si GILZ imite les effets des glucocorticoïdes, nous avons étudié son implication dans le développement des cellules T et B ainsi qu'un modèle de septicémie. Nous avons mesuré la sécrétion de cytokines à partir de différents modèles d'inflammation tels que des macrophages péritonéaux ou de moelle, de splénocytes ou encore d'un modèle de septicémie. Dans toutes nos expériences, la sécrétion de cytokines de cellules GILZ-déficientes était semblable. Dès 6 mois, les knockouts contenaient significativement moins de graisses et étaient plus légères. Suite à une privation sodique et aqueuse, l'homéostasie du sel et de l'eau était préservée. Les mâles knockouts présentaient une stérilité accompagnée d'une dysplasie testiculaire sévère, de tubules séminifères étaient plus petits et contenaient un nombre réduit de cellules de Sertoli et de cellules germinales. L'apoptose était augmentée dans ces cellules mais pas la prolifération cellulaire. Le nombre de cellules de Leydig était aussi plus élevé, ainsi que la FSH et la testostérone. L'expression du gène cible Pparγ2 était diminuée dans le testicule et le foie, mais pas dans la peau, le rein ou le tissu adipeux. L'ARNm de Tsc22d1 était plus exprimé dans le testicule, mais pas dans le rein ou le tissu adipeux. Dans la plupart des tissus, sauf le testicule, les souris knockouts révélaient une redondance fonctionnelle des autres membres de la famille Tsc22d ou de gènes impliqués dans les mêmes voies de régulation. En résumé, contrairement aux données in vitro, GILZ ne joue pas un rôle essentiel en immunologie, mais nous avons identifié une nouvelle fonction dans la spermatogénèse.

Promoter and transcription analysis of penicillin-binding protein genes in Streptococcus gordonii.

An optimally cross-linked peptidoglycan requires both transglycosylation and transpeptidation, provided by class A and class B penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs). Streptococcus gordonii possesses three class A PBPs (PBPs 1A, 1B, and 2A) and two class B PBPs (PBPs 2B and 2X) that are important for penicillin resistance. High-level resistance (MIC, > or =2 microg/ml) requires mutations in class B PBPs. However, although unmutated, class A PBPs are critical to facilitate resistance development (M. Haenni and P. Moreillon, Antimicrob. Agents Chemother. 50:4053-4061, 2006). Thus, their overexpression might be important to sustain the drug. Here, we determined the promoter regions of the S. gordonii PBPs and compared them to those of other streptococci. The extended -10 box was highly conserved and complied with a sigma(A)-type promoter consensus sequence. In contrast, the -35 box was poorly conserved, leaving the possibility of differential PBP regulation. Gene expression in a penicillin-susceptible parent (MIC, 0.008 microg/ml) and a high-level-resistant mutant (MIC, 2 microg/ml) was monitored using luciferase fusions. In the absence of penicillin, all PBPs were constitutively expressed, but their expression was globally increased (1.5 to 2 times) in the resistant mutant. In the presence of penicillin, class A PBPs were specifically overexpressed both in the parent (PBP 2A) and in the resistant mutant (PBPs 1A and 2A). By increasing transglycosylation, class A PBPs could promote peptidoglycan stability when transpeptidase is inhibited by penicillin. Since penicillin-related induction of class A PBPs occurred in both susceptible and resistant cells, such a mutation-independent facilitating mechanism could be operative at each step of resistance development.

Comprehensive clinical and molecular analysis of 12 families with type 1 recessive cutis laxa.

Autosomal recessive cutis laxa type I (ARCL type I) is characterized by generalized cutis laxa with pulmonary emphysema and/or vascular complications. Rarely, mutations can be identified in FBLN4 or FBLN5. Recently, LTBP4 mutations have been implicated in a similar phenotype. Studying FBLN4, FBLN5, and LTBP4 in 12 families with ARCL type I, we found bi-allelic FBLN5 mutations in two probands, whereas nine probands harbored biallelic mutations in LTBP4. FBLN5 and LTBP4 mutations cause a very similar phenotype associated with severe pulmonary emphysema, in the absence of vascular tortuosity or aneurysms. Gastrointestinal and genitourinary tract involvement seems to be more severe in patients with LTBP4 mutations. Functional studies showed that most premature termination mutations in LTBP4 result in severely reduced mRNA and protein levels. This correlated with increased transforming growth factor-beta (TGFβ) activity. However, one mutation, c.4127dupC, escaped nonsense-mediated decay. The corresponding mutant protein (p.Arg1377Alafs(*) 27) showed reduced colocalization with fibronectin, leading to an abnormal morphology of microfibrils in fibroblast cultures, while retaining normal TGFβ activity. We conclude that LTBP4 mutations cause disease through both loss of function and gain of function mechanisms.

Genetic and epigenetic analysis of SSAT gene dysregulation in suicidal behavior.

It has recently been proposed that the SSAT gene plays a role in the predisposition to suicidal behavior. SSAT expression was found to be down-regulated in the brain of suicide completers. In addition, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6526342 was associated both with variation in SSAT expression and with suicidal behavior. In this study, we aimed to characterize the relationship between SSAT dysregulation and suicide behavior. To this end, we measured SSAT expression levels in the ventral prefrontal cortex (VPFC) of suicide completers (n = 20) and controls (n = 20) and found them to be significantly down-regulated in suicide victims (P = 0.007). To identify the basis of the regulation of SSAT expression, we performed an association analysis of 309 SNPs with SSAT transcript levels in 53 lymphoblastoid cell lines from the CEPH collection. We then examined the methylation status of the SSAT promoter region in males and females suicide completers and control subjects whose SSAT brain expression had been measured. We found no evidence to support a role for SNPs in controlling the level of SSAT expression. SSAT promoter methylation levels were not different between suicide completers and controls and did not correlate with SSAT expression levels. In addition, we found no indication of a genetic association between suicidal behavior and SNPs located within the SSAT gene. Our study provides new results which show that dysregulation of SSAT expression does play a role in suicide behavior. However, our data do not support any association between rs6526342 and variation in SSAT expression or suicidal behavior.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients

Objective: Resection of lung metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer (CRC)¦is increasingly performed with a curative intent.Most series report small groups¦of patients, and it is currently not possible to identify those CRC patients who¦may benefit the most of surgical management. It is clinically relevant to assess¦risk factors for prolonged survival after this type of procedures.¦Methods: A meta analysis of 24 series published between 2000 and 2011¦which focused on surgical management of LM from CRC and included more¦than 40 patients each, with or without prior resection of in transit liver¦metastases. Random effects were calculated for five variables considered as¦potential prognostic factors.¦Results: A total of 2815 patients who underwent surgery with a curative¦intent were considered in this analysis. Four parameters were associated with¦a decreased survival: 1) a short disease-free interval between primary tumor¦resection and development of LM (HR = 1·59, 95% CI 1·27-1·98); 2) multiple¦LM (HR = 2·04, 95%CI 1·72-2·41); 3) positive hilar/mediastinal lymph nodes¦(HR = 1·65, 95% CI 1·35-2·02); and 4) a high prethoracotomy CEA value (HR¦=1·91, 95% CI 1·57-2·32). By comparison, a history of resected liver metastases¦(HR = 1·36, 95% CI 0·92-2·03) did not achieve statistical significance.¦Conclusion: Risk factors for poor clinical outcome after surgery for lung¦metastases in CRC patients include: 1) synchronous lung metastases; 2) high¦pre-thoracotomy CEA; 3) hilar nodes involvement; and 4) multiple pulmonary¦lesions.

Reduction of alcohol consumption by brief alcohol intervention in primary care: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Numerous trials of the efficacy of brief alcohol intervention have been conducted in various settings among individuals with a wide range of alcohol disorders. Nevertheless, the efficacy of the intervention is likely to be influenced by the context. We evaluated the evidence of efficacy of brief alcohol interventions aimed at reducing long-term alcohol use and related harm in individuals attending primary care facilities but not seeking help for alcohol-related problems. METHODS: We selected randomized trials reporting at least 1 outcome related to alcohol consumption conducted in outpatients who were actively attending primary care centers or seeing providers. Data sources were the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, ISI Web of Science, ETOH database, and bibliographies of retrieved references and previous reviews. Study selection and data abstraction were performed independently and in duplicate. We assessed the validity of the studies and performed a meta-analysis of studies reporting alcohol consumption at 6 or 12 months of follow-up. RESULTS: We examined 19 trials that included 5639 individuals. Seventeen trials reported a measure of alcohol consumption, of which 8 reported a significant effect of intervention. The adjusted intention-to-treat analysis showed a mean pooled difference of -38 g of ethanol (approximately 4 drinks) per week (95% confidence interval, -51 to -24 g/wk) in favor of the brief alcohol intervention group. Evidence of other outcome measures was inconclusive. CONCLUSION: Focusing on patients in primary care, our systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that brief alcohol intervention is effective in reducing alcohol consumption at 6 and 12 months.