Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with later drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances of households and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literature suggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, because respondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problem by analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out, using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses support previous findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status and social involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less with temporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact, and tend to increase attrition.

Kittiwakes strategically reduce investment in replacement clutches.

Many life-history traits are expressed interactively in life, but to a varying extent on different occasions. Changes in trait expression can be accounted for by differences in the quality of the environment ('environmental constraint' hypothesis) or by strategic adjustments, if the relative contribution of the trait to fitness varies with time ('strategic allocation' hypothesis). In birds, egg production is lower in replacement clutches than in first clutches, but it is unknown whether this reduction results from an environmental constraint (e.g. food being less available at the time when the replacement clutch is produced) or from a strategic allocation of resources between the two breeding attempts. To distinguish between these two hypotheses, we performed an experiment with black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Pairs were either food-supplemented or not before the first clutch was laid onwards and we induced them to produce a replacement clutch by removing eggs once when the first clutch was complete. As predicted by the 'strategic allocation' hypothesis, egg production of food-supplemented and non-food-supplemented birds decreased between first and replacement clutches. This suggests that kittiwakes strategically reduce investment in egg production for their replacement clutches compared to first clutches.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel

In this paper, we analyze magnitude and possible selectivity of attrition in first wave respondents in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), from wave two (2000) through wave seven (2005). After comparing attrition of first wave respondents with that of other panel surveys, we proceed to model selectivity of attrition in two steps: we first build separate waveto- wave models, and second a longitudinal all-wave model. The latter model includes wave interaction effects. The first models allow for tracing of selectivity development, i.e. whether an initial selectivity might compensate or cumulates over time, the second to assessing the effects of the covariates in a specific wave, controlling for the base attrition effect. In particular it allows for the analysis of consequences due to discrete fieldwork events. Our results support the findings in the literature: attritors are in general the younger people and the males, foreigners, the socially and politically "excluded", i.e. those who show little social and political interest and participation, those who are mostly dissatisfied with various aspects in their life, and those who live in households with high unit nonresponse, and who exhibit a worse reporting behavior. This pattern is rather cumulative than compensating over panel waves. Excessive attrition in two waves presumably caused by two discrete events in the panel is not particularly selective. Still existing variation in selective attrition is worth to be further explored.

Does Interviewer-Respondent Socio-Demographic Matching Increase Cooperation in Centralized CATI Household Panels?

Overall it seems that age and gender interviewer characteristics are relevant in achieving higher cooperation rates by telephone panel members. This appears to be the case especially for older male interviewers, who perform the best on gaining cooperation across different types of respondents. This holds if important interviewer covariates like experience are controlled for. There is no evidence that special sex age or sex matches yield a higher cooperation. It may be that not only the perceived authority of the institution that sponsors the survey plays a role when it comes to cooperation (Groves et al., 1992) but also of the interviewer who asks for this cooperation. Presumably older men have more authority to convince sample members to participate. A simple recommendation is to use as many older male interviewers as possible for the recruitment phase. It is likely that this strategy would also be successful in other western cultures than Switzerland.

Cooperation in centralised CATI Household Panel Surveys : A Contact-based Multilevel Analysis to Examine Interviewer, Respondent, and Fieldwork Process Effects

In this research, we analyse the contact-specific mean of the final cooperation probability, distinguishing on the one hand between contacts with household reference persons and with other eligible household members, and on the other hand between first and later contacts. Data comes from two Swiss Household Panel surveys. The interviewer-specific variance is higher for first contacts, especially in the case of the reference person. For later contacts with the reference person, the contact-specific variance dominates. This means that interaction effects and situational factors are decisive. The contact number has negative effects on the performance of contacts with the reference person, positive in the case of other persons. Also time elapsed since the previous contact has negative effects in the case of reference persons. The result of the previous contact has strong effects, especially in the case of the reference person. These findings call for a quick completion of the household grid questionnaire, assigning the best interviewers to conducting the first contact. While obtaining refusals has negative effects, obtaining other contact results has only weak effects on the interviewer's subsequent contact outcome. Using the same interviewer for contacts has no positive effects.

Generation of cell polarity in plants links endocytosis, auxin distribution and cell fate decisions.

Dynamically polarized membrane proteins define different cell boundaries and have an important role in intercellular communication-a vital feature of multicellular development. Efflux carriers for the signalling molecule auxin from the PIN family are landmarks of cell polarity in plants and have a crucial involvement in auxin distribution-dependent development including embryo patterning, organogenesis and tropisms. Polar PIN localization determines the direction of intercellular auxin flow, yet the mechanisms generating PIN polarity remain unclear. Here we identify an endocytosis-dependent mechanism of PIN polarity generation and analyse its developmental implications. Real-time PIN tracking showed that after synthesis, PINs are initially delivered to the plasma membrane in a non-polar manner and their polarity is established by subsequent endocytic recycling. Interference with PIN endocytosis either by auxin or by manipulation of the Arabidopsis Rab5 GTPase pathway prevents PIN polarization. Failure of PIN polarization transiently alters asymmetric auxin distribution during embryogenesis and increases the local auxin response in apical embryo regions. This results in ectopic expression of auxin pathway-associated root-forming master regulators in embryonic leaves and promotes homeotic transformation of leaves to roots. Our results indicate a two-step mechanism for the generation of PIN polar localization and the essential role of endocytosis in this process. It also highlights the link between endocytosis-dependent polarity of individual cells and auxin distribution-dependent cell fate establishment for multicellular patterning.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances ofhouseholds and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literaturesuggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, becauserespondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problemby analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out,using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses supportprevious findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status andsocial involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less withtemporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact,and tend to increase attrition.

Decoding decisions in healthy subjects and auditory discrimination in comatose patients through single-trial topographic EEG analyses

Neuroimaging studies analyzing neurophysiological signals are typically based on comparing averages of peri-stimulus epochs across experimental conditions. This approach can however be problematic in the case of high-level cognitive tasks, where response variability across trials is expected to be high and in cases where subjects cannot be considered part of a group. The main goal of this thesis has been to address this issue by developing a novel approach for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) responses at the single-trial level. This approach takes advantage of the spatial distribution of the electric field on the scalp (topography) and exploits repetitions across trials for quantifying the degree of discrimination between experimental conditions through a classification scheme. In the first part of this thesis, I developed and validated this new method (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Its general applicability was demonstrated with three separate datasets, two in the visual modality and one in the auditory. This development allowed then to target two new lines of research, one in basic and one in clinical neuroscience, which represent the second and third part of this thesis respectively. For the second part of this thesis (Tzovara et al., 2012c), I employed the developed method for assessing the timing of exploratory decision-making. Using single-trial topographic EEG activity during presentation of a choice's payoff, I could predict the subjects' subsequent decisions. This prediction was due to a topographic difference which appeared on average at ~516ms after the presentation of payoff and was subject-specific. These results exploit for the first time the temporal correlates of individual subjects' decisions and additionally show that the underlying neural generators start differentiating their responses already ~880ms before the button press. Finally, in the third part of this project, I focused on a clinical study with the goal of assessing the degree of intact neural functions in comatose patients. Auditory EEG responses were assessed through a classical mismatch negativity paradigm, during the very early phase of coma, which is currently under-investigated. By taking advantage of the decoding method developed in the first part of the thesis, I could quantify the degree of auditory discrimination at the single patient level (Tzovara et al., in press). Our results showed for the first time that even patients who do not survive the coma can discriminate sounds at the neural level, during the first hours after coma onset. Importantly, an improvement in auditory discrimination during the first 48hours of coma was predictive of awakening and survival, with 100% positive predictive value. - L'analyse des signaux électrophysiologiques en neuroimagerie se base typiquement sur la comparaison des réponses neurophysiologiques à différentes conditions expérimentales qui sont moyennées après plusieurs répétitions d'une tâche. Pourtant, cette approche peut être problématique dans le cas des fonctions cognitives de haut niveau, où la variabilité des réponses entre les essais peut être très élevéeou dans le cas où des sujets individuels ne peuvent pas être considérés comme partie d'un groupe. Le but principal de cette thèse est d'investiguer cette problématique en développant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des réponses d'électroencephalographie (EEG) au niveau de chaque essai. Cette approche se base sur la modélisation de la distribution du champ électrique sur le crâne (topographie) et profite des répétitions parmi les essais afin de quantifier, à l'aide d'un schéma de classification, le degré de discrimination entre des conditions expérimentales. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, j'ai développé et validé cette nouvelle méthode (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Son applicabilité générale a été démontrée avec trois ensembles de données, deux dans le domaine visuel et un dans l'auditif. Ce développement a permis de cibler deux nouvelles lignes de recherche, la première dans le domaine des neurosciences cognitives et l'autre dans le domaine des neurosciences cliniques, représentant respectivement la deuxième et troisième partie de ce projet. En particulier, pour la partie cognitive, j'ai appliqué cette méthode pour évaluer l'information temporelle de la prise des décisions (Tzovara et al., 2012c). En se basant sur l'activité topographique de l'EEG au niveau de chaque essai pendant la présentation de la récompense liée à un choix, on a pu prédire les décisions suivantes des sujets (en termes d'exploration/exploitation). Cette prédiction s'appuie sur une différence topographique qui apparaît en moyenne ~516ms après la présentation de la récompense. Ces résultats exploitent pour la première fois, les corrélés temporels des décisions au niveau de chaque sujet séparément et montrent que les générateurs neuronaux de ces décisions commencent à différentier leurs réponses déjà depuis ~880ms avant que les sujets appuient sur le bouton. Finalement, pour la dernière partie de ce projet, je me suis focalisée sur une étude Clinique afin d'évaluer le degré des fonctions neuronales intactes chez les patients comateux. Des réponses EEG auditives ont été examinées avec un paradigme classique de mismatch negativity, pendant la phase précoce du coma qui est actuellement sous-investiguée. En utilisant la méthode de décodage développée dans la première partie de la thèse, j'ai pu quantifier le degré de discrimination auditive au niveau de chaque patient (Tzovara et al., in press). Nos résultats montrent pour la première fois que même des patients comateux qui ne vont pas survivre peuvent discriminer des sons au niveau neuronal, lors de la phase aigue du coma. De plus, une amélioration dans la discrimination auditive pendant les premières 48heures du coma a été observée seulement chez des patients qui se sont réveillés par la suite (100% de valeur prédictive pour un réveil).

Early maternal investment in mice: no evidence for compatible-genes sexual selection despite hybrid vigor.

Confronting a recently mated female with a strange male can induce a pregnancy block ('Bruce effect'). The physiology of this effect is well studied, but its functional significance is still not fully understood. The 'anticipated infanticide hypothesis' suggests that the pregnancy block serves to avoid the cost of embryogenesis and giving birth to offspring that are likely to be killed by a new territory holder. Some 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses' suggest that the likelihood of a pregnancy block is also dependent on the female's perception of the stud's and the stimulus male's genetic quality. We used two inbred strains of mice (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) to test all possible combinations of female strain, stud strain, and stimulus strain under experimental conditions (N(total) = 241 mated females). As predicted from previous studies, we found increased rates of pregnancy blocks if stud and stimulus strains differed, and we found evidence for hybrid vigour in offspring of between-strain mating. Despite the observed heterosis, pregnancies of within-strain matings were not more likely to be blocked than pregnancies of between-strain matings. A power analysis revealed that if we missed an existing effect (type-II error), the effect must be very small. If a female gave birth, the number and weight of newborns were not significantly influenced by the stimulus males. In conclusion, we found no support for the 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses'.