Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Combined modality treatment with full-dose chemotherapy and concomitant boost radiotherapy for advanced head and neck carcinoma

Résumé Le but de cette étude est d'évaluer la faisabilité et l'efficacité d'un traitement des carcinomes pharyngo-laryngés avancés par combinaison de chimiothérapie intensive associé à une radiothérapie accélérée. Vingt-trois patients ont été inclus (age médian 54 ans, entre 35 et 70 ans). Les localisations tumorales étaient l'hypopharynx (n=7), base de langue (n=10), nasopharynx (n=2) ou l'oesophage proximal (n.1), ou sans porte d'entrée (n=3). Le traitement comprend trois cycles de chimiothérapie (cisplatin 100mg/m2 à J1 ; 5-FU 1000mg/m2 par jour pendant 5 jours en perfusion continue, précédé par de l'amifostine 910mg/m2 ; répété toutes les trois semaines). La radiothérapie concomitante, accélérée (dose totale de 70Gy en 6 semaines) a été débuté au premier jour du deuxième cycle de chimiothérapie. Vingt et un patients ont pu achever la radiothérapie. Dix-huit patients étaient en rémission complète à la fin du traitement. Avec un suivi médian de 45 mois, le taux de survie globale atteint 56% (95% Cl, 32-79%). Le contrôle loco-régional était de 71% (95% CI, 52-91%). La toxicité associée au traitement consistait en une insuffisance rénale réversible (≥grade II) chez 9 patients (43%) et une agranulocytose fébrile chez 9 patients (43%). Tous les patients ont présenté une mucite modérée à sévère (grade II/III) et 19 patients ont montré une toxicité cutanée de grade III. En conclusion, le traitement combiné de radiothérapie accélérée avec une chimiothérapie concomitante à base de Cisplatin/5-FU full-dose avec amifostine est faisable. La toxicité est importante mais reste maîtrisable dans le cadre d'un centre multidisciplinaire. Le taux de survie globale à 4 ans est prometteur, la recherche en vue de traitements moins toxiques doit se poursuivre. Abstract The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of a treatment concept combining three cycles of full-dose chemotherapy (CT) with concomitant accelerated uninterrupted radiotherapy (RI). Twenty- three patients (median age: 54 years, range: 35-70) with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) were included. The primary tumor involved the hypopharynx (n=7), base of the tongue (n=10), nasopharynx (n=2) or upper esophagus (n=1) or its location was unknown (n=3). Treatment consisted of three cycles of chemotherapy (cisplatin 100 mg/m2 on day 1; 5-FU 1,000 mg/m2 per day for 5 days as a continuous infusion, preceded by amifostine 910 mg/m2). repeated every 3 weeks. Uninterrupted concomitant boost-accelerated RI (total dose of 70 Gy in 6 weeks) started together on day 1 of the second cycle. All but two patients received the full course of RT. Eighteen patients achieved complete remission (78%). At a median follow-up of 45 months the overall survival was 56% (95% c.i. 32-79%) and the loco-regional control 71% (95% c.i. 52-91%). Toxicity involved reversible renal insufficiency of grade II in 9 patients (39%) and neutropenic fever in 9 patients (39%). All patients suffered from moderate to severe mucositis (grade HMI), and 19 patients presented cutaneous toxicity grade III. Concomitant boost-accelerated RI combined with concurrent full-dose cisplatin/5-FU chemotherapy and amifostine is feasible with manageable, although substantial, toxicity. The overall survival of 4 years is promising. Newer regimens causing less acute mucosal and skin toxicity are needed.

Hierarchical analyses of genetic differentiation in a hybrid zone of Sorex araneus (Insectivora : Soricidae)

Microsatellites are used to unravel the fine-scale genetic structure of a hybrid zone between chromosome races Valais and Cordon of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) located in the French Alps. A total of 269 individuals collected between 1992 and 1995 was typed for seven microsatellite loci. A modified version of the classical multiple correspondence analysis is carried out. This analysis clearly shows the dichotomy between the two races. Several approaches are used to study genetic structuring. Gene flow is clearly reduced between these chromosome races and is estimated at one migrant every two generations using X-statistics and one migrant per generation using F-statistics. Hierarchical F- and R-statistics are compared and their efficiency to detect inter- and intraracial patterns of divergence is discussed. Within-race genetic structuring is significant, but remains weak. F-ST displays similar values on both sides of the hybrid zone, although no environmental barriers are found on the Cordon side, whereas the Valais side is divided by several mountain rivers. We introduce the exact G-test to microsatellite data which proved to be a powerful test to detect genetic differentiation within as well as among races. The genetic background of karyotypic hybrids was compared with the genetic background of pure parental forms using a CRT-MCA. Our results indicate that, without knowledge of the karyotypes, we would not have been able to distinguish these hybrids from karyotypically pure samples.

Emotional and neuroendocrine regulation in very preterm and full-term infants at six months of age

Emotional and neuroendocrine regulation have been shown to be associated. However, results are inconsistent. This paper explores the functioning and relationships between these two systems in 54 healthy preterm and 25 full-term born infants at six months of age. Results showed significant differences between very preterm and full-term children in emotional intensity and regulation, as well as in neuroendocrine regulation. No evidence of an association between neuroendocrine and emotional regulations was found. Results suggest a possible delay in the maturation of the neuroendocrine system as well as in emotional regulation in very preterm infants.

A hierarchical approach to model parameter optimization for developmental systems.

In the context of Systems Biology, computer simulations of gene regulatory networks provide a powerful tool to validate hypotheses and to explore possible system behaviors. Nevertheless, modeling a system poses some challenges of its own: especially the step of model calibration is often difficult due to insufficient data. For example when considering developmental systems, mostly qualitative data describing the developmental trajectory is available while common calibration techniques rely on high-resolution quantitative data. Focusing on the calibration of differential equation models for developmental systems, this study investigates different approaches to utilize the available data to overcome these difficulties. More specifically, the fact that developmental processes are hierarchically organized is exploited to increase convergence rates of the calibration process as well as to save computation time. Using a gene regulatory network model for stem cell homeostasis in Arabidopsis thaliana the performance of the different investigated approaches is evaluated, documenting considerable gains provided by the proposed hierarchical approach.

Value of positron emission tomography in full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies

Rapport de synthèse : Les tumeurs de la paroi thoracique sont des pathologies graves dont le traitement principal consiste en une résection chirurgicale. L'enjeu majeur de cette intervention ontologique est de réséquer la totalité de la tumeur, ce qui nécessite une planification préopératoire minutieuse. Classiquement, l'identification et la localisation de la tumeur se fait à l'aide de la tomodensitométrie (computed tomography, CT) ou de l'imagerie par résonnance magnétique (1RM). Actuellement, l'imagerie nucléaire fonctionnelle par tomographie par émission de positons (positron emission tomography, PET) qui peut être couplée au CT (PET/CT) est de plus en plus appliquée aux patients présentant une tumeur maligne. Son efficacité a fréquemment été démontrée. Le but de la présente étude est d'évaluer la valeur du PET dans la planification de la résection des tumeurs de la paroi thoracique. Une analyse rétrospective de dix-huit patients opérés entre 2004 et 2006 a été réalisée; Dans ce groupe de patient, la taille de la tumeur mesurée sur la pièce opératoire réséquée a été comparée à la taille de la tumeur mesurée sur le CT et le PET. Les résultats démontrent que le CT surestimait de manière consistante la taille réelle de la tumeur par rapport au PET (+64% par rapport à +1%, P<0.001). De plus, le PET s'est avéré particulièrement performant pour prédire la taille des tumeurs de plus de 5.5 cm de diamètre par rapport au CT (valeur prédictive positive 80% par rapport à 44% et spécificité 93% par apport à 64%, respectivement). Cette étude démontre que le PET permettrait de mesurer la taille des tumeurs de la paroi thoracique de manière plus précise que le CT. Cette nouvelle modalité diagnostique s'avèrerait donc utile pour planifier les résections chirurgicales de telles tumeurs. A notre connaissance, aucune publication ne décrit la valeur du PET dans ce domaine. Les performances accrues du PET permettraient une meilleure délimitation des tumeurs ce qui améliorerait la précision de la résection chirurgicale. En conclusion, cette étude préliminaire rétrospective démontre la faisabilité du PET pour les tumeurs de la paroi thoracique. Ces résultats devraient être confirmés par une étude prospective incluant un plus grand nombre de patients avec la perspective de juger l'impact clinique réel du PET sur la prise en charge thérapeutique des patients.

Hierarchical management of carbon sources is regulated similarly by the CbrA/B systems in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Pseudomonas putida.

The CbrA/B system in pseudomonads is involved in the utilization of carbon sources and carbon catabolite repression (CCR) through the activation of the small RNAs crcZ in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and crcZ and crcY in Pseudomonas putida. Interestingly, previous works reported that the CbrA/B system activity in P. aeruginosa PAO1 and P. putida KT2442 responded differently to the presence of different carbon sources, thus raising the question of the exact nature of the signal(s) detected by CbrA. Here, we demonstrated that the CbrA/B/CrcZ(Y) signal transduction pathway is similarly activated in the two Pseudomonas species. We show that the CbrA sensor kinase is fully interchangeable between the two species and, moreover, responds similarly to the presence of different carbon sources. In addition, a metabolomics analysis supported the hypothesis that CCR responds to the internal energy status of the cell, as the internal carbon/nitrogen ratio seems to determine CCR and non-CCR conditions. The strong difference found in the 2-oxoglutarate/glutamine ratio between CCR and non-CCR conditions points to the close relationship between carbon and nitrogen availability, or the relationship between the CbrA/B and NtrB/C systems, suggesting that both regulatory systems sense the same sort or interrelated signal.

Qualitative and Hierarchical Analysis of Protective Factors against Illicit Use of Doping Substances in Athletes Calling a National Anti-Doping Phone-Help Service

Evidence of a sport-specific hierarchy of protective factors against doping would thus be a powerful aid in adapting information and prevention campaigns to target the characteristics of specific athlete groups, and especially those athletes most vulnerable for doping control. The contents of phone calls to a free and anonymous national anti-doping service called 'ecoute dopage' were analysed (192 bodybuilders, 124 cyclists and 44 footballers). The results showed that the protective factors that emerged from analysis could be categorised into two groups. The first comprised 'Health concerns', 'Respect for the law' and 'Doping controls from the environment' and the second comprised 'Doubts about the effectiveness of illicit products, 'Thinking skills' and 'Doubts about doctors'. The ranking of the factors for the cyclists differed from that of the other athletes. The ordering of factors was 1) respect for the law, 2) doping controls from the environment, 3) health concerns 4) doubts about doctors, and 5) doubts about the effectiveness illicit products. The results are analysed in terms of the ranking in each athlete group and the consequences on the athletes' experience and relationship to doping. Specific prevention campaigns are proposed to limit doping behaviour in general and for each sport.

Patterns of calcium-binding proteins support parallel and hierarchical organization of human auditory areas.

The human primary auditory cortex (AI) is surrounded by several other auditory areas, which can be identified by cyto-, myelo- and chemoarchitectonic criteria. We report here on the pattern of calcium-binding protein immunoreactivity within these areas. The supratemporal regions of four normal human brains (eight hemispheres) were processed histologically, and serial sections were stained for parvalbumin, calretinin or calbindin. Each calcium-binding protein yielded a specific pattern of labelling, which differed between auditory areas. In AI, defined as area TC [see C. von Economo and L. Horn (1930) Z. Ges. Neurol. Psychiatr.,130, 678-757], parvalbumin labelling was dark in layer IV; several parvalbumin-positive multipolar neurons were distributed in layers III and IV. Calbindin yielded dark labelling in layers I-III and V; it revealed numerous multipolar and pyramidal neurons in layers II and III. Calretinin labelling was lighter than that of parvalbumin or calbindin in AI; calretinin-positive bipolar and bitufted neurons were present in supragranular layers. In non-primary auditory areas, the intensity of labelling tended to become progressively lighter while moving away from AI, with qualitative differences between the cytoarchitectonically defined areas. In analogy to non-human primates, our results suggest differences in intrinsic organization between auditory areas that are compatible with parallel and hierarchical processing of auditory information.

HIERFSTAT, a package for R to compute and test hierarchical F-statistics

The package HIERFSTAT for the statistical software R, created by the R Development Core Team, allows the estimate of hierarchical F-statistics from a hierarchy with any numbers of levels. In addition, it allows testing the statistical significance of population differentiation for these different levels, using a generalized likelihood-ratio test. The package HIERFSTAT is available at http://www.unil.ch/popgen/softwares/hierfstat.htm.

Sample size and statistical power in the hierarchical analysis of variance: applications in morphometry of the nervous system.

Analysis of variance is commonly used in morphometry in order to ascertain differences in parameters between several populations. Failure to detect significant differences between populations (type II error) may be due to suboptimal sampling and lead to erroneous conclusions; the concept of statistical power allows one to avoid such failures by means of an adequate sampling. Several examples are given in the morphometry of the nervous system, showing the use of the power of a hierarchical analysis of variance test for the choice of appropriate sample and subsample sizes. In the first case chosen, neuronal densities in the human visual cortex, we find the number of observations to be of little effect. For dendritic spine densities in the visual cortex of mice and humans, the effect is somewhat larger. A substantial effect is shown in our last example, dendritic segmental lengths in monkey lateral geniculate nucleus. It is in the nature of the hierarchical model that sample size is always more important than subsample size. The relative weight to be attributed to subsample size thus depends on the relative magnitude of the between observations variance compared to the between individuals variance.