Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

CATMA, a comprehensive genome-scale resource for silencing and transcript profiling of Arabidopsis genes.

BACKGROUND: The Complete Arabidopsis Transcript MicroArray (CATMA) initiative combines the efforts of laboratories in eight European countries 1 to deliver gene-specific sequence tags (GSTs) for the Arabidopsis research community. The CATMA initiative offers the power and flexibility to regularly update the GST collection according to evolving knowledge about the gene repertoire. These GST amplicons can easily be reamplified and shared, subsets can be picked at will to print dedicated arrays, and the GSTs can be cloned and used for other functional studies. This ongoing initiative has already produced approximately 24,000 GSTs that have been made publicly available for spotted microarray printing and RNA interference. RESULTS: GSTs from the CATMA version 2 repertoire (CATMAv2, created in 2002) were mapped onto the gene models from two independent Arabidopsis nuclear genome annotation efforts, TIGR5 and PSB-EuGène, to consolidate a list of genes that were targeted by previously designed CATMA tags. A total of 9,027 gene models were not tagged by any amplified CATMAv2 GST, and 2,533 amplified GSTs were no longer predicted to tag an updated gene model. To validate the efficacy of GST mapping criteria and design rules, the predicted and experimentally observed hybridization characteristics associated to GST features were correlated in transcript profiling datasets obtained with the CATMAv2 microarray, confirming the reliability of this platform. To complete the CATMA repertoire, all 9,027 gene models for which no GST had yet been designed were processed with an adjusted version of the Specific Primer and Amplicon Design Software (SPADS). A total of 5,756 novel GSTs were designed and amplified by PCR from genomic DNA. Together with the pre-existing GST collection, this new addition constitutes the CATMAv3 repertoire. It comprises 30,343 unique amplified sequences that tag 24,202 and 23,009 protein-encoding nuclear gene models in the TAIR6 and EuGène genome annotations, respectively. To cover the remaining untagged genes, we identified 543 additional GSTs using less stringent design criteria and designed 990 sequence tags matching multiple members of gene families (Gene Family Tags or GFTs) to cover any remaining untagged genes. These latter 1,533 features constitute the CATMAv4 addition. CONCLUSION: To update the CATMA GST repertoire, we designed 7,289 additional sequence tags, bringing the total number of tagged TAIR6-annotated Arabidopsis nuclear protein-coding genes to 26,173. This resource is used both for the production of spotted microarrays and the large-scale cloning of hairpin RNA silencing vectors. All information about the resulting updated CATMA repertoire is available through the CATMA database http://www.catma.org.

Genetics of calcium homeostasis in humans: continuum between monogenic diseases and continuous phenotypes

Extracellular calcium participates in several key physiological functions, such as control of blood coagulation, bone calcification or muscle contraction. Calcium homeostasis in humans is regulated in part by genetic factors, as illustrated by rare monogenic diseases characterized by hypo or hypercalcaemia. Both serum calcium and urinary calcium excretion are heritable continuous traits in humans. Serum calcium levels are tightly regulated by two main hormonal systems, i.e. parathyroid hormone and vitamin D, which are themselves also influenced by genetic factors. Recent technological advances in molecular biology allow for the screening of the human genome at an unprecedented level of detail and using hypothesis-free approaches, such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS identified novel loci for calcium-related phenotypes (i.e. serum calcium and 25-OH vitamin D) that shed new light on the biology of calcium in humans. The substantial overlap (i.e. CYP24A1, CASR, GATA3; CYP2R1) between genes involved in rare monogenic diseases and genes located within loci identified in GWAS suggests a genetic and phenotypic continuum between monogenic diseases of calcium homeostasis and slight disturbances of calcium homeostasis in the general population. Future studies using whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing will further advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of calcium homeostasis in humans. These findings will likely provide new insight into the complex mechanisms involved in calcium homeostasis and hopefully lead to novel preventive and therapeutic approaches. Keyword: calcium, monogenic, genome-wide association studies, genetics.

Tree-based message diffusion for managing replicated data in unreliable and resource-constrained peer-to-peer environment

Abstract This thesis proposes a set of adaptive broadcast solutions and an adaptive data replication solution to support the deployment of P2P applications. P2P applications are an emerging type of distributed applications that are running on top of P2P networks. Typical P2P applications are video streaming, file sharing, etc. While interesting because they are fully distributed, P2P applications suffer from several deployment problems, due to the nature of the environment on which they perform. Indeed, defining an application on top of a P2P network often means defining an application where peers contribute resources in exchange for their ability to use the P2P application. For example, in P2P file sharing application, while the user is downloading some file, the P2P application is in parallel serving that file to other users. Such peers could have limited hardware resources, e.g., CPU, bandwidth and memory or the end-user could decide to limit the resources it dedicates to the P2P application a priori. In addition, a P2P network is typically emerged into an unreliable environment, where communication links and processes are subject to message losses and crashes, respectively. To support P2P applications, this thesis proposes a set of services that address some underlying constraints related to the nature of P2P networks. The proposed services include a set of adaptive broadcast solutions and an adaptive data replication solution that can be used as the basis of several P2P applications. Our data replication solution permits to increase availability and to reduce the communication overhead. The broadcast solutions aim, at providing a communication substrate encapsulating one of the key communication paradigms used by P2P applications: broadcast. Our broadcast solutions typically aim at offering reliability and scalability to some upper layer, be it an end-to-end P2P application or another system-level layer, such as a data replication layer. Our contributions are organized in a protocol stack made of three layers. In each layer, we propose a set of adaptive protocols that address specific constraints imposed by the environment. Each protocol is evaluated through a set of simulations. The adaptiveness aspect of our solutions relies on the fact that they take into account the constraints of the underlying system in a proactive manner. To model these constraints, we define an environment approximation algorithm allowing us to obtain an approximated view about the system or part of it. This approximated view includes the topology and the components reliability expressed in probabilistic terms. To adapt to the underlying system constraints, the proposed broadcast solutions route messages through tree overlays permitting to maximize the broadcast reliability. Here, the broadcast reliability is expressed as a function of the selected paths reliability and of the use of available resources. These resources are modeled in terms of quotas of messages translating the receiving and sending capacities at each node. To allow a deployment in a large-scale system, we take into account the available memory at processes by limiting the view they have to maintain about the system. Using this partial view, we propose three scalable broadcast algorithms, which are based on a propagation overlay that tends to the global tree overlay and adapts to some constraints of the underlying system. At a higher level, this thesis also proposes a data replication solution that is adaptive both in terms of replica placement and in terms of request routing. At the routing level, this solution takes the unreliability of the environment into account, in order to maximize reliable delivery of requests. At the replica placement level, the dynamically changing origin and frequency of read/write requests are analyzed, in order to define a set of replica that minimizes communication cost.

Caval collapse during cardiopulmonary bypass: a reproducible bench model.

OBJECTIVES: During open heart surgery, so-called atrial chatter, a phenomenon due to right atria and/or caval collapse, is frequently observed. Collapse of the cava axis during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) limits venous drainage and may result downstream in reduced pump flow on (lack of volume) and upstream in increased after-load (stagnation), which in turn may both result in reduced or even inadequate end-organ perfusion. The goal of this study was to reproduce venous collapse in the flow bench. METHODS: In accordance with literature for venous anatomy, a caval tree system is designed (polyethylene, thickness 0.061 mm), which receives venous inflow from nine afferent veins. With water as medium and a preload of 4.4 mmHg, the system has an outflow of 4500 ml/min (Scenario A). After the insertion of a percutaneous venous cannula (23-Fr), the venous model is continuously served by the afferent branches in a venous test bench and venous drainage is augmented with a centrifugal pump (Scenario B). RESULTS: With gravity drainage (siphon: A), spontaneously reversible atrial chatter can be generated in reproducible fashion. Slight reduction in the outflow diameter allows for generation of continuous flow. With augmentation (B), irreversible collapse of the artificial vena cava occurs in reproducible fashion at a given pump speed of 2300 ± 50 RPM and a pump inlet pressure of -112 mmHg. Furthermore, bubbles form at the cannula tip despite the fact that the entire system is immersed in water and air from the environment cannot enter the system. This phenomenon is also known as cavitation and should be avoided because of local damage of both formed blood elements and endothelium, as well embolization. CONCLUSIONS: This caval model provides a realistic picture for the limitations of flow due to spontaneously reversible atrial chatter vs irreversible venous collapse for a given negative pressure during CPB. Temporary interruption of negative pressure in the venous line can allow for recovery of venous drainage. This know-how can be used not only for testing different cannula designs, but also for further optimizing perfusion strategies.

Towards Integrated Governance of Landscape Development : The Swiss Model of Regional Nature Parks

Coherent regulation of landscape as a resource is a major challenge. How can the development interests of some actors (eg cable car operators and property developers) be reconciled with those of others (agriculture, forestry) and with conservation of biodiversity and scenic value? To help understand how the newly introduced Regional Nature Parks (RNPs) can improve the coherence of the regulation regime in Switzerland, we highlight current direct mechanisms for regulation of landscape as a resource (bans, inventories, subsidies) as well as indirect mechanisms (taking place through the regulation of the physical basis of landscapes, eg forest, land, and water planning policies). We show that RNPs are fundamentally innovative because they make it possible to manage and coordinate indirect strategies for appropriate regulation of resources at a landscape scale. In other words, RNPs enable organization of governance of landscape as a resource in a perimeter that is not necessarily restricted to administrative boundaries.

Temporal changes in mRNA expression of the brain nutrient transporters in the lithium-pilocarpine model of epilepsy in the immature and adult rat.

The lithium-pilocarpine model mimics most features of human temporal lobe epilepsy. Following our prior studies of cerebral metabolic changes, here we explored the expression of transporters for glucose (GLUT1 and GLUT3) and monocarboxylates (MCT1 and MCT2) during and after status epilepticus (SE) induced by lithium-pilocarpine in PN10, PN21, and adult rats. In situ hybridization was used to study the expression of transporter mRNAs during the acute phase (1, 4, 12 and 24h of SE), the latent phase, and the early and late chronic phases. During SE, GLUT1 expression was increased throughout the brain between 1 and 12h of SE, more strongly in adult rats; GLUT3 increased only transiently, at 1 and 4h of SE and mainly in PN10 rats; MCT1 was increased at all ages but 5-10-fold more in adult than in immature rats; MCT2 expression increased mainly in adult rats. At all ages, MCT1 and MCT2 up-regulation was limited to the circuit of seizures while GLUT1 and GLUT3 changes were more widespread. During the latent and chronic phases, the expression of nutrient transporters was normal in PN10 rats. In PN21 rats, GLUT1 was up-regulated in all brain regions. In contrast, in adult rats GLUT1 expression was down-regulated in the piriform cortex, hilus and CA1 as a result of extensive neuronal death. The changes in nutrient transporter expression reported here further support previous findings in other experimental models demonstrating rapid transcriptional responses to marked changes in cerebral energetic/glucose demand.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.

Evolutionary branching in deme-structured populations.

Adaptive dynamics shows that a continuous trait under frequency dependent selection may first converge to a singular point followed by spontaneous transition from a unimodal trait distribution into a bimodal one, which is called "evolutionary branching". Here, we study evolutionary branching in a deme-structured population by constructing a quantitative genetic model for the trait variance dynamics, which allows us to obtain an analytic condition for evolutionary branching. This is first shown to agree with previous conditions for branching expressed in terms of relatedness between interacting individuals within demes and obtained from mutant-resident systems. We then show this branching condition can be markedly simplified when the evolving trait affect fecundity and/or survival, as opposed to affecting population structure, which would occur in the case of the evolution of dispersal. As an application of our model, we evaluate the threshold migration rate below which evolutionary branching cannot occur in a pairwise interaction game. This agrees very well with the individual-based simulation results.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

Enhanced expression of 70-kilodalton heat shock protein limits cell division in a sepsis-induced model of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Fibrotic changes are initiated early in acute respiratory distress syndrome. This may involve overproliferation of alveolar type II cells. In an animal model of acute respiratory distress syndrome, we have shown that the administration of an adenoviral vector overexpressing the 70-kd heat shock protein (AdHSP) limited pathophysiological changes. We hypothesized that this improvement may be modulated, in part, by an early AdHSP-induced attenuation of alveolar type II cell proliferation. DESIGN: Laboratory investigation. SETTING: Hadassah-Hebrew University and University of Pennsylvania animal laboratories. SUBJECTS: Sprague-Dawley Rats (250 g). INTERVENTIONS: Lung injury was induced in male Sprague-Dawley rats via cecal ligation and double puncture. At the time of cecal ligation and double puncture, we injected phosphate-buffered saline, AdHSP, or AdGFP (an adenoviral vector expressing the marker green fluorescent protein) into the trachea. Rats then received subcutaneous bromodeoxyuridine. In separate experiments, A549 cells were incubated with medium, AdHSP, or AdGFP. Some cells were also stimulated with tumor necrosis factor-alpha. After 48 hrs, cytosolic and nuclear proteins from rat lungs or cell cultures were isolated. These were subjected to immunoblotting, immunoprecipitation, electrophoretic mobility shift assay, fluorescent immunohistochemistry, and Northern blot analysis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Alveolar type I cells were lost within 48 hrs of inducing acute respiratory distress syndrome. This was accompanied by alveolar type II cell proliferation. Treatment with AdHSP preserved alveolar type I cells and limited alveolar type II cell proliferation. Heat shock protein 70 prevented overexuberant cell division, in part, by inhibiting hyperphosphorylation of the regulatory retinoblastoma protein. This prevented retinoblastoma protein ubiquitination and degradation and, thus, stabilized the interaction of retinoblastoma protein with E2F1, a key cell division transcription factor. CONCLUSIONS: : Heat shock protein 70-induced attenuation of cell proliferation may be a useful strategy for limiting lung injury when treating acute respiratory distress syndrome if consistent in later time points.

The optimal dividend barrier in the Gamma-Omega model

In the traditional actuarial risk model, if the surplus is negative, the company is ruined and has to go out of business. In this paper we distinguish between ruin (negative surplus) and bankruptcy (going out of business), where the probability of bankruptcy is a function of the level of negative surplus. The idea for this notion of bankruptcy comes from the observation that in some industries, companies can continue doing business even though they are technically ruined. Assuming that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, we derive closed-form formulas for the expected discounted dividends until bankruptcy under a barrier strategy. Subsequently, the optimal barrier is determined, and several explicit identities for the optimal value are found. The surplus process of the company is modeled by a Wiener process (Brownian motion).

Postmortem pump-driven reperfusion of the vascular system of porcine lungs: towards a new model for surgical training.

PURPOSE: The objective of this experiment is to establish a continuous postmortem circulation in the vascular system of porcine lungs and to evaluate the pulmonary distribution of the perfusate. This research is performed in the bigger scope of a revascularization project of Thiel embalmed specimens. This technique enables teaching anatomy, practicing surgical procedures and doing research under lifelike circumstances. METHODS: After cannulation of the pulmonary trunk and the left atrium, the vascular system was flushed with paraffinum perliquidum (PP) through a heart-lung machine. A continuous circulation was then established using red PP, during which perfusion parameters were measured. The distribution of contrast-containing PP in the pulmonary circulation was visualized on computed tomography. Finally, the amount of leak from the vascular system was calculated. RESULTS: A reperfusion of the vascular system was initiated for 37 min. The flow rate ranged between 80 and 130 ml/min throughout the experiment with acceptable perfusion pressures (range: 37-78 mm Hg). Computed tomography imaging and 3D reconstruction revealed a diffuse vascular distribution of PP and a decreasing vascularization ratio in cranial direction. A self-limiting leak (i.e. 66.8% of the circulating volume) towards the tracheobronchial tree due to vessel rupture was also measured. CONCLUSIONS: PP enables circulation in an isolated porcine lung model with an acceptable pressure-flow relationship resulting in an excellent recruitment of the vascular system. Despite these promising results, rupture of vessel walls may cause leaks. Further exploration of the perfusion capacities of PP in other organs is necessary. Eventually, this could lead to the development of reperfused Thiel embalmed human bodies, which have several applications.

Rapid cohort generation and analysis of disease spectrum of large animal model of cone dystrophy.

Large animal models are an important resource for the understanding of human disease and for evaluating the applicability of new therapies to human patients. For many diseases, such as cone dystrophy, research effort is hampered by the lack of such models. Lentiviral transgenesis is a methodology broadly applicable to animals from many different species. When conjugated to the expression of a dominant mutant protein, this technology offers an attractive approach to generate new large animal models in a heterogeneous background. We adopted this strategy to mimic the phenotype diversity encounter in humans and generate a cohort of pigs for cone dystrophy by expressing a dominant mutant allele of the guanylate cyclase 2D (GUCY2D) gene. Sixty percent of the piglets were transgenic, with mutant GUCY2D mRNA detected in the retina of all animals tested. Functional impairment of vision was observed among the transgenic pigs at 3 months of age, with a follow-up at 1 year indicating a subsequent slower progression of phenotype. Abnormal retina morphology, notably among the cone photoreceptor cell population, was observed exclusively amongst the transgenic animals. Of particular note, these transgenic animals were characterized by a range in the severity of the phenotype, reflecting the human clinical situation. We demonstrate that a transgenic approach using lentiviral vectors offers a powerful tool for large animal model development. Not only is the efficiency of transgenesis higher than conventional transgenic methodology but this technique also produces a heterogeneous cohort of transgenic animals that mimics the genetic variation encountered in human patients.