Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Activités professionnelles et qualité de l'air des parcs de stationnement couvert : rapport d'expertise collective

[Table des matières] 1. Contexte, objet et modalités de traitement de la saisine. - 2. Préambule. - 3. Caractérisation des parcs de stationnement couverts et de leurs activités professionnelles en France (enquête Afsset). - 4. Observations de terrain et analyse d'activités professionnelles exercées dans les parcs de stationnement couverts (étude Anact). - 5. Evaluation des risques sanitaires. - 6. Recommandations. - Bibliographie. - Annexe 1 : Lettre de saisine. - Annexe 2 : Présentation des positions divergentes. - Annexe 3 : Synthèse des déclarations publiques d'intérêts des experts par rapport au champ de la saisine. - Annexe 4 : Réglementation et recommandations institutionnelles concernant la qualité de l'air dans les parcs de stationnement couverts, et l'hygiène et la sécurité des travailleurs. - Annexe 5 : Etude de coparly sur la mesure de polluants atmosphériques dans les parcs de stationnement - Informations générales. - Annexe 6 : Dépassement des valeurs cibles Afsset" limitant les risques pour la santé des travailleurs dans les parcs de stationnement (Coparly, 2009). - Annexe 7 : Enquête Asset - Méthode d'identification du code NAF le plus adapté. - Annexe 8 : Enquête Afsset - Questionnaire d'enquête. - Annexe 9 : Enquête Afsset - Villes d'implantation des parcs inclus dans l'étude. - Annexe 10 : Rapport de l'Anact : Activité professionnelle et qualité de l'air dans les parcs couverts de stationnement. - Annexe 11 : Résultats de mesures de la campagne du LCPP utilisés pour les scénarios d'exposition. - Annexe 12 : Résultats issus de l'enquête Afsset sur les activités professionnelles exercées dans les parcs de stationnement couverts. - Annexe 13 : Concentrations ubiquitaires dans différents "micro-environnements" (Afsset, 2007). - Annexe 14 : Facteurs d'abattement entre concentrations dans le local d'exploitation et dans le parc. - Annexe 15 : Limites des valeurs toxicologiques de référence (Afsset, 2007). - Annexe 16 : Exemples de solutions pour améliorer la qualité de l'air et réduire l'exposition des travailleurs.

Problèmes d'échantillonnage lors d'une enquête sur la plombémie d'enfants citadin [Sampling problems in a survey of blood lead levels in city children].

A study on lead pollution was carried out on a sample of ca. 300 city children. This paper presents the errors producing bias in the sample. It is emphasized that, in Switzerland, the difference between the Swiss and the migrant population (the latter being mainly Italian and Spanish) must be taken into account.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

Exposition au fumage involontaire dans l'air intérieur des locaux. Problèmes liés aux mesures de l'exposition à la fumée de tabac

A brief and critical review of the physical and chemical markers of ETS was made as well as the techniques which were used to measure their concentrations in indoor air. Despite the existing data, more investigations and measurements are needed to characterize the exposure to ETS and their health effects.

L'exégèse et l'air du temps

La théologie est-elle une science ? Ce débat n'est pas nouveau, et il accompagne les différentes disciplines de la théologie au moins depuis le siècle des Lumières. Dans la discussion actuelle, par exemple entre théologie et sciences religieuses, les disciplines théologiques qui apparaissent souvent comme les plus "scientifiques" sont les sciences bibliques et l'histoire du christianisme. Il ne fait à mon avis aucun doute qu'il s'agit là des disciplines qui posent le moins problème pour une position qu'on pourrait qualifier de "laïque". Et cependant, ce serait un leurre de croire que ces méthodes sont exemptes de présuppositions théologiques ou idéologiques. Je n'ai pas l'intention d'entrer ici dans le débat sur le problème de l'objectivité de la science, faute de temps et de compétence. J'aimerais plus modestement montrer, à partir de l'exégèse de la Bible hébraïque, l'interconnexion - pas toujours consciente - entre certains modèles exégétiques et les options idéologiques des savants qui défendent ou promeuvent ces modèles.

Knowledge of Glasgow coma scale by air-rescue physicians.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the theoretical and practical knowledge of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) by trained Air-rescue physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: Prospective anonymous observational study with a specially designed questionnaire. General knowledge of the GCS and its use in a clinical case were assessed. RESULTS: From 130 questionnaires send out, 103 were returned (response rate of 79.2%) and analyzed. Theoretical knowledge of the GCS was consistent for registrars, fellows, consultants and private practitioners active in physician-staffed helicopters. The clinical case was wrongly scored by 38 participants (36.9%). Wrong evaluation of the motor component occurred in 28 questionnaires (27.2%), and 19 errors were made for the verbal score (18.5%). Errors were made most frequently by registrars (47.5%, p = 0.09), followed by fellows (31.6%, p = 0.67) and private practitioners (18.4%, p = 1.00). Consultants made significantly less errors than the rest of the participating physicians (0%, p < 0.05). No statistically significant differences were shown between anesthetists, general practitioners, internal medicine trainees or others. CONCLUSION: Although the theoretical knowledge of the GCS by out-of-hospital physicians is correct, significant errors were made in scoring a clinical case. Less experienced physicians had a higher rate of errors. Further emphasis on teaching the GCS is mandatory.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).