Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

Additive effects of ectoparasites over reproductive attempts in the long-lived Alpine swift

1. Parasitism is a non-negligible cost of reproduction in wild organisms, and hosts are selected to partition resources optimally between current and future reproduction. While parents can compensate for the cost of parasitism by increasing their current reproductive investment, such change in resource allocation is expected to carry-over costs on future reproduction. 2. Life history theory predicts that because long-lived organisms have a high residual reproductive value, they should be more reluctant to increase parental effort in response to parasites. Also, when rearing successive infested broods, the cost of parasitism can cumulate over the years and hence be exacerbated by past infestations. 3. We tested these two predictions in the alpine swift Apus melba, a long-lived colonial bird that is infested intensely by the nest-based blood sucking louse-fly Crataerina melbae. For this purpose, we manipulated ectoparasite load over 3 consecutive years and measured reproductive parameters in successive breeding attempts of adults assigned randomly to 'parasitized' and 'deparasitized' treatments. 4. In current reproduction, fathers of experimentally parasitized broods produced a similar number of offspring as fathers from the deparasitized treatment, but the rearing period was prolonged by 4 days. Fathers that were assigned to the parasitized treatment in year x produced significantly fewer fledglings the following year x + 1 than those of the deparasitized treatment. The number of young produced by fathers in year x + 1 was correlated negatively with the number of days they cared for their brood in the previous year x. We also found a significant interaction between treatments performed over 2 successive years, with fathers of parasitized broods suffering a larger fitness loss if in the past they had already cared for a parasitized brood rather than for a deparasitized one. Similar effects of parasitism, although partly non-significant (0.05 < P-values > 0.10), were found in mothers. 5. Altogether, our results show that parasites can modify resource allocation between current and future reproduction in long-lived hosts, and that the cost of parasitism can cumulate over the years. It emphasizes the fact that effects of parasites can depend on past infestations and become apparent in future reproduction only.

3D noise power spectrum applied on clinical mdct scanners: effects of reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction filters

The noise power spectrum (NPS) is the reference metric for understanding the noise content in computed tomography (CT) images. To evaluate the noise properties of clinical multidetector (MDCT) scanners, local 2D and 3D NPSs were computed for different acquisition reconstruction parameters.A 64- and a 128-MDCT scanners were employed. Measurements were performed on a water phantom in axial and helical acquisition modes. CT dose index was identical for both installations. Influence of parameters such as the pitch, the reconstruction filter (soft, standard and bone) and the reconstruction algorithm (filtered-back projection (FBP), adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR)) were investigated. Images were also reconstructed in the coronal plane using a reformat process. Then 2D and 3D NPS methods were computed.In axial acquisition mode, the 2D axial NPS showed an important magnitude variation as a function of the z-direction when measured at the phantom center. In helical mode, a directional dependency with lobular shape was observed while the magnitude of the NPS was kept constant. Important effects of the reconstruction filter, pitch and reconstruction algorithm were observed on 3D NPS results for both MDCTs. With ASIR, a reduction of the NPS magnitude and a shift of the NPS peak to the low frequency range were visible. 2D coronal NPS obtained from the reformat images was impacted by the interpolation when compared to 2D coronal NPS obtained from 3D measurements.The noise properties of volume measured in last generation MDCTs was studied using local 3D NPS metric. However, impact of the non-stationarity noise effect may need further investigations.

Three-Dimensional (3D) Microarchitecture Correlations with 2D Projection Image Gray-Level Variations Assessed by Trabecular Bone Score Using High-Resolution Computed Tomographic Acquisitions: Effects of Resolution and Noise.

The aim of the present study is to determine the level of correlation between the 3-dimensional (3D) characteristics of trabecular bone microarchitecture, as evaluated using microcomputed tomography (μCT) reconstruction, and trabecular bone score (TBS), as evaluated using 2D projection images directly derived from 3D μCT reconstruction (TBSμCT). Moreover, we have evaluated the effects of image degradation (resolution and noise) and X-ray energy of projection on these correlations. Thirty human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a microscanner at an isotropic resolution of 93μm. The 3D microarchitecture parameters were obtained using MicroView (GE Healthcare, Wauwatosa, MI). The 2D projections of these 3D models were generated using the Beer-Lambert law at different X-ray energies. Degradation of image resolution was simulated (from 93 to 1488μm). Relationships between 3D microarchitecture parameters and TBSμCT at different resolutions were evaluated using linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were observed between TBSμCT and 3D microarchitecture parameters, regardless of the resolution. Correlations were detected that were strongly to intermediately positive for connectivity density (0.711≤r(2)≤0.752) and trabecular number (0.584≤r(2)≤0.648) and negative for trabecular space (-0.407 ≤r(2)≤-0.491), up to a pixel size of 1023μm. In addition, TBSμCT values were strongly correlated between each other (0.77≤r(2)≤0.96). Study results show that the correlations between TBSμCT at 93μm and 3D microarchitecture parameters are weakly impacted by the degradation of image resolution and the presence of noise.

Additive effects of HLA alleles and innate immune genes determine viral outcome in HCV infection.

BACKGROUND: Chronic HCV infection is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity globally. The innate and adaptive immune responses are thought to be important in determining viral outcomes. Polymorphisms associated with the IFNL3 (IL28B) gene are strongly associated with spontaneous clearance and treatment outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the importance of HLA genes in the context of genetic variation associated with the innate immune genes IFNL3 and KIR2DS3. DESIGN: We assess the collective influence of HLA and innate immune genes on viral outcomes in an Irish cohort of women (n=319) who had been infected from a single source as well as a more heterogeneous cohort (Swiss Cohort, n=461). In the Irish cohort, a number of HLA alleles are associated with different outcomes, and the impact of IFNL3-linked polymorphisms is profound. RESULTS: Logistic regression was performed on data from the Irish cohort, and indicates that the HLA-A*03 (OR 0.36 (0.15 to 0.89), p=0.027) -B*27 (OR 0.12 (0.03 to 0.45), p=<0.001), -DRB1*01:01 (OR 0.2 (0.07 to 0.61), p=0.005), -DRB1*04:01 (OR 0.31 (0.12 to 0.85, p=0.02) and the CC IFNL3 rs12979860 genotypes (OR 0.1 (0.04 to 0.23), p<0.001) are significantly associated with viral clearance. Furthermore, DQB1*02:01 (OR 4.2 (2.04 to 8.66), p=0.008), KIR2DS3 (OR 4.36 (1.62 to 11.74), p=0.004) and the rs12979860 IFNL3 'T' allele are associated with chronic infection. This study finds no interactive effect between IFNL3 and these Class I and II alleles in relation to viral clearance. There is a clear additive effect, however. Data from the Swiss cohort also confirms independent and additive effects of HLA Class I, II and IFNL3 genes in their prediction of viral outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This data supports a critical role for the adaptive immune response in the control of HCV in concert with the innate immune response.

Tolerance and Relative Utility: Two Proposed Indices for Comparing Change in Clinical Measurement Noise Between Different Populations (Repeatability) or Measurement Methods (Agreement).

Reaching a consensus in terms of interchangeability and utility (i.e., disease detection/monitoring) of a medical device is the eventual aim of repeatability and agreement studies. The aim of the tolerance and relative utility indices described in this report is to provide a methodology to compare change in clinical measurement noise between different populations (repeatability) or measurement methods (agreement), so as to highlight problematic areas. No longitudinal data are required to calculate these indices. Both indices establish a metric of least to most effected across all parameters to facilitate comparison. If validated, these indices may prove useful tools when combining reports and forming the consensus required in the validation process for software updates and new medical devices.

Physiological noise in human cerebellar fMRI.

OBJECTIVES: To compare physiological noise contributions in cerebellar and cerebral regions of interest in high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquired at 7T, to estimate the need for physiological noise removal in cerebellar fMRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Signal fluctuations in high resolution (1 mm isotropic) 7T fMRI data were attributed to one of the following categories: task-induced BOLD changes, slow drift, signal changes correlated with the cardiac and respiratory cycles, signal changes related to the cardiac rate and respiratory volume per unit of time or other. [Formula: see text] values for all categories were compared across regions of interest. RESULTS: In this high-resolution data, signal fluctuations related to the phase of the cardiac cycle and cardiac rate were shown to be significant, but comparable between cerebellar and cerebral regions of interest. However, respiratory related signal fluctuations were increased in the cerebellar regions, with explained variances that were up to 80 % higher than for the primary motor cortex region. CONCLUSION: Even at a millimetre spatial resolution, significant correlations with both cardiac and respiratory RETROICOR components were found in all healthy volunteer data. Therefore, physiological noise correction is highly likely to improve the temporal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for cerebellar fMRI at 7T, even at high spatial resolution.

Derivation of an observer model adapted to irregular signals based on convolution channels.

Anthropomorphic model observers are mathe- matical algorithms which are applied to images with the ultimate goal of predicting human signal detection and classification accuracy across varieties of backgrounds, image acquisitions and display conditions. A limitation of current channelized model observers is their inability to handle irregularly-shaped signals, which are common in clinical images, without a high number of directional channels. Here, we derive a new linear model observer based on convolution channels which we refer to as the "Filtered Channel observer" (FCO), as an extension of the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) and the nonprewhitening with an eye filter (NPWE) observer. In analogy to the CHO, this linear model observer can take the form of a single template with an external noise term. To compare with human observers, we tested signals with irregular and asymmetrical shapes spanning the size of lesions down to those of microcalfications in 4-AFC breast tomosynthesis detection tasks, with three different contrasts for each case. Whereas humans uniformly outperformed conventional CHOs, the FCO observer outperformed humans for every signal with only one exception. Additive internal noise in the models allowed us to degrade model performance and match human performance. We could not match all the human performances with a model with a single internal noise component for all signal shape, size and contrast conditions. This suggests that either the internal noise might vary across signals or that the model cannot entirely capture the human detection strategy. However, the FCO model offers an efficient way to apprehend human observer performance for a non-symmetric signal.

Sofosbuvir Inhibits Hepatitis E Virus Replication In Vitro and Results in an Additive Effect When Combined With Ribavirin.

Infection with hepatitis E virus genotype 3 may result in chronic hepatitis in immunocompromised patients. Reduction of immunosuppression or treatment with ribavirin or pegylated interferon-α can result in viral clearance. However, safer and more effective treatment options are needed. Here, we show that sofosbuvir inhibits the replication of hepatitis E virus genotype 3 both in subgenomic replicon systems as well as a full-length infectious clone. Moreover, the combination of sofosbuvir and ribavirin results in an additive antiviral effect. Sofosbuvir may be considered as an add-on therapy to ribavirin for the treatment of chronic hepatitis E in immunocompromised patients.