Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Schizophrenia and complications of pregnancy and labor: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between complications of pregnancy and delivery and schizophrenia, but none have had sufficient power to examine specific complications that, individually, are of low prevalence. We, therefore, performed an individual patient meta-analysis using the raw data from case control studies that used the Lewis-Murray scale. Data were obtained from 12 studies on 700 schizophrenia subjects and 835 controls. There were significant associations between schizophrenia and premature rupture of membranes, gestational age shorter than 37 weeks, and use of resuscitation or incubator. There were associations of borderline significance between schizophrenia and birthweight lower than 2,500 g and forceps delivery. There was no significant interaction between these complications and sex. We conclude that some abnormalities of pregnancy and delivery may be associated with development of schizophrenia. The pathophysiology may involve hypoxia and so future studies should focus on the accurate measurement of this exposure.

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. METHODS: We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. RESULTS: ORs were increased in underweight (<18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (>/=25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Expression and developmental regulation of Ehk-1, a neuronal Elk-like receptor tyrosine kinase in brain.

Protein tyrosine kinases are pivotal in central nervous tissue development and maintenance. Here we focus on the expression of Ehk-1, a novel Elk-related receptor tyrosine kinase. Ehk-1 gene expression is observed in the developing and adult central nervous system and is highly regulated throughout development at both the messenger RNA and protein levels. Three messenger RNA transcripts of 8.5, 5.9 and 5.1 kb are detectable in the rat brain and a variety of splice possibilities have been identified. However, a major protein species of around M(r) 120,000 predominates throughout development. Ehk-1 messenger RNA and protein levels are highest in the first postnatal week. By in situ messenger RNA hybridization the gene is expressed by all neurons of the adult brain, but mostly in the hippocampus, cerebral cortex and large neurons of the deep cerebellar nuclei, as well as the Purkinje and granular cells of the cerebellum. At earlier stages of development, transcripts are most prominent in the periventricular germinal layers of the brain. Immunohistochemistry reveals a pronounced membrane associated protein expression in immature neurons. In the adult animal, peak reactivity was found in the neuropil with sparing of most perikarya. The spatial and temporal pattern of ehk-1 gene expression suggests a role in both the development and maintenance of differentiated neurons of the central nervous system.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Intrauterine devices and endometrial cancer risk : a pooled analysis of the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium

Intrauterine devices (IUDs), long-acting and reversible contraceptives, induce a number of immunological and biochemical changes in the uterine environment that could affect endometrial cancer (EC) risk. We addressed this relationship through a pooled analysis of data collected in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We combined individual-level data from 4 cohort and 14 case-control studies, in total 8,801 EC cases and 15,357 controls. Using multivariable logistic regression, we estimated pooled odds ratios (pooled-ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC risk associated with ever use, type of device, ages at first and last use, duration of use and time since last use, stratified by study and adjusted for confounders. Ever use of IUDs was inversely related to EC risk (pooled-OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90). Compared with never use, reduced risk of EC was observed for inert IUDs (pooled-OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.58-0.82), older age at first use (≥35 years pooled-OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.43-0.67), older age at last use (≥45 years pooled-OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.50-0.72), longer duration of use (≥10 years pooled-OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.52-0.71) and recent use (within 1 year of study entry pooled-OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.30-0.49). Future studies are needed to assess the respective roles of detection biases and biologic effects related to foreign body responses in the endometrium, heavier bleeding (and increased clearance of carcinogenic cells) and localized hormonal changes.

Anti-Nogo-A Antibody Treatment Promotes Recovery of Manual Dexterity after Unilateral Cervical Lesion in Adult Primates--re-examination and Extension of Behavioral Data.

In rodents and nonhuman primates subjected to spinal cord lesion, neutralizing the neurite growth inhibitor Nogo-A has been shown to promote regenerative axonal sprouting and functional recovery. The goal of the present report was to re-examine the data on the recovery of the primate manual dexterity using refined behavioral analyses and further statistical assessments, representing secondary outcome measures from the same manual dexterity test. Thirteen adult monkeys were studied; seven received an anti-Nogo-A antibody whereas a control antibody was infused into the other monkeys. Monkeys were trained to perform the modified Brinkman board task requiring opposition of index finger and thumb to grasp food pellets placed in vertically and horizontally oriented slots. Two parameters were quantified before and following spinal cord injury: (i) the standard 'score' as defined by the number of pellets retrieved within 30 s from the two types of slots; (ii) the newly introduced 'contact time' as defined by the duration of digit contact with the food pellet before successful retrieval. After lesion the hand was severely impaired in all monkeys; this was followed by progressive functional recovery. Remarkably, anti-Nogo-A antibody-treated monkeys recovered faster and significantly better than control antibody-treated monkeys, considering both the score for vertical and horizontal slots (Mann-Whitney test: P = 0.05 and 0.035, respectively) and the contact time (P = 0.008 and 0.005, respectively). Detailed analysis of the lesions excluded the possibility that this conclusion may have been caused by differences in lesion properties between the two groups of monkeys.

Sex differences in obesity and the regulation of energy homeostasis.

Obesity prevalence is generally higher in women than in men, and there is also a sex difference in body fat distribution. Sex differences in obesity can be explained in part by the influence of gonadal steroids on body composition and appetite; however, behavioural, socio-cultural and chromosomal factors may also play a role. This review, which evolved from the 2008 Stock Conference on sex differences in obesity, summarizes current research and recommendations related to hormonal and neuroendocrine influences on energy balance and fat distribution. A number of important gaps in the research are identified, including a need for more studies on chromosomal sex effects on energy balance, the role of socio-cultural (i.e. gender) factors in obesity and the potential deleterious effects of high-fat diets during pregnancy on the foetus. Furthermore, there is a paucity of clinical trials examining sex-specific approaches and outcomes of obesity treatment (lifestyle-based or pharmacological), and research is urgently needed to determine whether current weight loss programmes, largely developed and tested on women, are appropriate for men. Last, it is important that both animal and clinical research on obesity be designed and analysed in such a way that data can be separately examined in both men and women.

A phase 2 randomized trial of radiotherapy (RT) plus panitumumab compared to chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN): interim pooled safety analysis

Background: Panitumumab (pmab), a fully human monoclonal antibody against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), is indicated as monotherapy for treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This ongoing study is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of pmab in combination with radiotherapy (PRT) compared to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) as initial treatment of unresected, locally advanced SCCHN (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00547157). Methods: This is a phase 2, open-label, randomized, multicenter study. Eligible patients (pts) were randomized 2:3 to receive cisplatin 100 mg/m2 on days 1 and 22 of RT or pmab 9.0 mg/kg on days 1, 22, and 43. Accelerated RT (70 to 72 Gy − delivered over 6 to 6.5 weeks) was planned for all pts and was delivered either by intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) modality or by three-dimensional conformal (3D-CRT) modality. The primary endpoint is local-regional control (LRC) rate at 2 years. Key secondary endpoints include PFS, OS, and safety. An external, independent data monitoring committee conducts planned safety and efficacy reviews during the course of the trial. Results: Pooled data from this planned interim safety analysis includes the first 52 of the 150 planned pts; 44 (84.6%) are male; median (range) age is 57 (33−77) years; ECOG PS 0: 65%, PS 1: 35%; 20 (39%) pts received IMRT, and 32 (61%) pts received 3D-CRT. Fifty (96%) pts completed RT, and 50 pts received RT per protocol without a major deviation. The median (range) total RT dose administered was 72 (64−74) Gy. The most common grade _ 3 adverse events graded using the CTCAE version 3.0 are shown (Table). Conclusions: After the interim safety analysis, CONCERT-2 continues per protocol. Study enrollment is estimated to be completed by October 2009.

Positive and negative regulation of T cell responses by fibroblastic reticular cells within paracortical regions of lymph nodes.

Fibroblastic reticular cells (FRC) form the structural backbone of the T cell rich zones in secondary lymphoid organs (SLO), but also actively influence the adaptive immune response. They provide a guidance path for immigrating T lymphocytes and dendritic cells (DC) and are the main local source of the cytokines CCL19, CCL21, and IL-7, all of which are thought to positively regulate T cell homeostasis and T cell interactions with DC. Recently, FRC in lymph nodes (LN) were also described to negatively regulate T cell responses in two distinct ways. During homeostasis they express and present a range of peripheral tissue antigens, thereby participating in peripheral tolerance induction of self-reactive CD8(+) T cells. During acute inflammation T cells responding to foreign antigens presented on DC very quickly release pro-inflammatory cytokines such as interferon γ. These cytokines are sensed by FRC which transiently produce nitric oxide (NO) gas dampening the proliferation of neighboring T cells in a non-cognate fashion. In summary, we propose a model in which FRC engage in a bidirectional crosstalk with both DC and T cells to increase the efficiency of the T cell response. However, during an acute response, FRC limit excessive expansion and inflammatory activity of antigen-specific T cells. This negative feedback loop may help to maintain tissue integrity and function during rapid organ growth.

Heel and toe clearance estimation for gait analysis using wireless inertial sensors.

Tripping is considered a major cause of fall in older people. Therefore, foot clearance (i.e., height of the foot above ground during swing phase) could be a key factor to better understand the complex relationship between gait and falls. This paper presents a new method to estimate clearance using a foot-worn and wireless inertial sensor system. The method relies on the computation of foot orientation and trajectory from sensors signal data fusion, combined with the temporal detection of toe-off and heel-strike events. Based on a kinematic model that automatically estimates sensor position relative to the foot, heel and toe trajectories are estimated. 2-D and 3-D models are presented with different solving approaches, and validated against an optical motion capture system on 12 healthy adults performing short walking trials at self-selected, slow, and fast speed. Parameters corresponding to local minimum and maximum of heel and toe clearance were extracted and showed accuracy ± precision of 4.1 ± 2.3 cm for maximal heel clearance and 1.3 ± 0.9 cm for minimal toe clearance compared to the reference. The system is lightweight, wireless, easy to wear and to use, and provide a new and useful tool for routine clinical assessment of gait outside a dedicated laboratory.

ON THE ROLE OF PERIOD-2 IN THE CIRCADIAN AND HOMEOSTATIC REGULATION OF SLEEP

Humans spend one third of their life sleeping, then we could raise the basic question: Why do we sleep? Despite the fact that we still don't fully understand its function, we made much progress in understanding at different levels how sleep is regulated. One model suggests that sleep is regulated by two processes: a homeostatic process that tracks the need for sleep and by a circadian rhythm that determines the preferred time-of-day sleep occurs. At the molecular level circadian rhythms are a property of interlocking transcriptional regula-tors referred to as clock genes. The heterodimeric transcription factors BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 drive the transcription of many target genes including the clock genes Cryptochome1 (Cry1), Cry2, Period1 (Per1), and Per2. The encoded CRY/PER proteins are transcriptional inhibitors of BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 thereby providing negative feedback to their own transcription. These genes seem, however, also involved in sleep homeostasis because the brain expression of clock genes, es-pecially that of Per2, increase as a function of time-spent-awake and because mice lacking clock genes display altered sleep homeostasis. The aim of first part of my doctoral work has been to advance our understanding the link that exists between sleep homeostasis and circadian rhythms investigating a possible mechanism by which sleep deprivation could alter clock gene expression by quantifying DNA-binding of the core-clock genes BMAL1, CLOCK and NPAS2 to their target chromatin loci including the E-box enhancers of the Per2 promoter. We made use of chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and quantitative poly-merase chain reaction (qPCR) to show that DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to their target genes changes as a function of time-of-day in both liver and cerebral cortex. We then performed a 6h sleep deprivation (SD) and observed a significant decrease in DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to Dbp. This is consistent with a decrease in Dbp mRNA levels after SD. The DNA-binding of NPAS2 and BMAL1 to Per2 was similarly decreased following SD. However, SD has been previously shown to in-crease Per2 expression in the cortex which seems paradoxical. Our results demonstrate that sleep-wake history can affect the molecular clock machinery directly at the level of the chromatin thereby altering the cortical expression of Dbp and Per2, and likely other targets. However, the precise dy-namic relationship between DNA-binding and mRNA expression, especially for Per2, remains elusive. The second aim of my doctoral work has been to perform an in depth characterization of cir-cadian rhythmicity, sleep architecture, analyze the response to SD in full null-Per2 knock-out (Per2-/-) mice, and Per1-/- mice, as well as their double knock-out offspring (Per1,2-/-) and littermate wildtype (Wt) mice. The techniques used include locomotor activity recording by passive infrared (PIR) sen-sors, EEG/EMG surgery, recording, and analysis, and cerebral cortex extraction and quantification of mRNA levels by qPCR. Under standard LD12:12 conditions, we found that wakefulness onset, as well as the time courses of clock gene expression in the brain and corticosterone plasma levels were ad-vanced by about 2h in Per2-/- mice compared to Wt mice. When released under constant dark condi-tions almost all Per2-/- mice (97%) became arrhythmic immediately. From these observations, we conclude that while Per2-/- mice seem to be able to anticipate dark onset, this does not result from a self-sustained circadian clock. Our results suggest instead that the earlier onset of activity results from a labile, not-self sustained 22h rhythm linked to light onset suggesting the existence of a light-driven rhythm. Analyses of sleep under LD12:12 conditions revealed that in both Per2-/- and Per1,2-/- mice the same sleep phenotypes are observed compared to Wt mice: increased NREM sleep frag-mentation and inability to adequately compensate the loss of NREM sleep. That suggests a possible role of PER2 in sleep consolidation and recovery.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Circulating carotenoids and risk of breast cancer: pooled analysis of eight prospective studies.

Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.

Role of the renal circadian timing system in maintaining water and electrolytes homeostasis.

Many basic physiological functions exhibit circadian rhythmicity. These functional rhythms are driven, in part, by the circadian clock, an ubiquitous molecular mechanism allowing cells and tissues to anticipate regular environmental events and to prepare for them. This mechanism has been shown to play a particularly important role in maintaining stability (homeostasis) of internal conditions. Because the homeostatic equilibrium is continuously challenged by environmental changes, the role of the circadian clock is thought to consist in the anticipative adjustment of homeostatic pathways in relation with the 24h environmental cycle. The kidney is the principal organ responsible for the regulation of the composition and volume of extracellular fluids (ECF). Several major parameters of kidney function, including renal plasma flow (RPF), glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and tubular reabsorption and secretion have been shown to exhibit strong circadian oscillations. Recent evidence suggest that the circadian clock can be involved in generation of these rhythms through external circadian time cues (e.g. humoral factors, activity and body temperature rhythms) or, trough the intrinsic renal circadian clock. Here, we discuss the role of renal circadian mechanisms in maintaining homeostasis of water and three major ions, namely, Na(+), K(+) and Cl(-).