Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Interplanetary transfer of photosynthesis: an experimental demonstration of a selective dispersal filter in planetary island biogeography.

We launched a cryptoendolithic habitat, made of a gneissic impactite inoculated with Chroococcidiopsis sp., into Earth orbit. After orbiting the Earth for 16 days, the rock entered the Earth's atmosphere and was recovered in Kazakhstan. The heat of entry ablated and heated the rock to a temperature well above the upper temperature limit for life to below the depth at which light levels are insufficient for photosynthetic organisms ( approximately 5 mm), thus killing all of its photosynthetic inhabitants. This experiment shows that atmospheric transit acts as a strong biogeographical dispersal filter to the interplanetary transfer of photosynthesis. Following atmospheric entry we found that a transparent, glassy fusion crust had formed on the outside of the rock. Re-inoculated Chroococcidiopsis grew preferentially under the fusion crust in the relatively unaltered gneiss beneath. Organisms under the fusion grew approximately twice as fast as the organisms on the control rock. Thus, the biologically destructive effects of atmospheric transit can generate entirely novel and improved endolithic habitats for organisms on the destination planetary body that survive the dispersal filter. The experiment advances our understanding of how island biogeography works on the interplanetary scale.

Emergence of Swiss metropole and scaling properties of urban clusters

Defining the limits of an urban agglomeration is essential both for fundamental and applied studies in quantitative and theoretical geography. A simple and consistent way for defining such urban clusters is important for performing different statistical analysis and comparisons. Traditionally, agglomerations are defined using a rather qualitative approach based on various statistical measures. This definition varies generally from one country to another, and the data taken into account are different. In this paper, we explore the use of the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) for the agglomeration definition in Switzerland. This algorithm provides a systemic and easy way to define an urban area based only on population data. The CCA allows the specification of the spatial resolution for defining the urban clusters. The results from different resolutions are compared and analysed, and the effect of filtering the data investigated. Different scales and parameters allow highlighting different phenomena. The study of Zipf's law using the visual rank-size rule shows that it is valid only for some specific urban clusters, inside a narrow range of the spatial resolution of the CCA. The scale where emergence of one main cluster occurs can also be found in the analysis using Zipf's law. The study of the urban clusters at different scales using the lacunarity measure - a complementary measure to the fractal dimension - allows to highlight the change of scale at a given range.

Membrane lipid composition affects plant heat sensing and modulates Ca ( 2+) -dependent heat shock response.

Understanding how plants sense and respond to heat stress is central to improve crop tolerance and productivity. Recent findings in Physcomitrella patensdemonstrated that the controlled passage of calcium ions across the plasma membrane regulates the heat shock response (HSR). To investigate the effect of membrane lipid composition on the plant HSR, we acclimated P. patens to a slightly elevated yet physiological growth temperature and analysed the signature of calcium influx under a mild heat shock. Compared to tissues grown at 22°C, tissues grown at 32°C had significantly higher overall membrane lipid saturation level and, when submitted to a short heat shock at 35°C, displayed a noticeably reduced calcium influx and a consequent reduced heat shock gene expression. These results show that temperature differences, rather than the absolute temperature, determine the extent of the plant HSR and indicate that membrane lipid composition regulates the calcium-dependent heat-signaling pathway.

Statistical properties of population differentiation estimators under stepwise mutation in a finite island model.

Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.

Effect of an 8-weeks aerobic training program in elderly on oxidative stress and HSP72 expression in leukocytes during antioxidant supplementation.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of aerobic training in the context of antioxidant supplementation on systemic oxidative stress and leukocytes heat shock protein (Hsp)72 expression in the elderly. DESIGN: Sixteen septuagenarians (8 males and 8 females, mean age 74.6) were supplemented with Vitamin C and E (respectively 500 and 100mg per day) and randomly assigned either to sedentary (AS) or individualized aerobically trained (AT) group for 8 weeks. METHODS: Plasma Vitamin C and E concentrations and aerobic fitness, as well as resting and post graded exercise (GXT) Hsp72 expression in leukocytes, plasma levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) and advanced oxidation protein product (AOPP) were measured pre and post training / supplementation. RESULTS: At the end of the intervention, the two groups showed a significant increase in resting plasma vitamin C and E (approximately 50 and 20% increase respectively) and a significant decrease in both resting and post GXT plasma TBARS and AOPP (approximately 25 and 20% decrease respectively). These changes were of similar magnitude in the two groups. The reduced oxidative stress was concomitant with a 15% decreased expression of Hsp72 in monocytes and granulocytes in both groups. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that in elderly, increased concentration of antioxidant vitamins C and E is associated with a reduction in oxidative stress and leukocytes Hsp72. In this context, 8 weeks of aerobic training has no impact on oxidative stress or leukocytes Hsp72 expression in elderly people.

Hydrogen and oxygen isotope behaviors during variable degrees of upper mantle melting: Example from the basaltic glasses from Macquarie Island

We present measurements of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in MORB glasses from Macquarie Island (SW. Pacific Ocean) coupled with determination of bulk H2O content by two independent techniques: total dehydration and FTIR. The incompatible trace elements in these glasses vary by a factor of 12 to 17, with K2O varying from 0.1 to 1.7 wt.%; these ranges reflect a variable degree of closed-system mantle melting, estimated from 1 to 15%. Water concentrations determined by the two techniques match well, yielding a range from 0.25 to 1.49 wt.% which correlates positively with all of the measured incompatible trace elements, suggesting that water is un-degassed, and behaves conservatively during mantle melting. Also, the agreement between the FTIR-determined and extracted water contents gives us confidence that the measured isotopic values of hydrogen reflect that of the mantle. Comparison of the range of water content with that of other incompatible trace elements allows estimation of the water partition coefficient in lherzolite, 0.0208 (ranging from 0.017 to 0.023), and the water content in the source, 386 ppm (ranging from 370 to 440 ppm). We observe a fairly narrow range in delta D and delta O-18 values of -75.5 +/- 4.5 parts per thousand and 5.50 +/- 0 .05 parts per thousand respectively, that can be explained by partial melting of normal lherzolitic mantle. The measured delta D and delta O-18 values of Macquarie Island glasses that range from nepheline- to hypersthene-normative, and from MORB to EMORB in composition, are identical to those in average global MORB. The observed lack of variation of delta D and delta O-18 with 1 to 15% degree of mantle melting is consistent with a bulk melting model of delta D and delta O-18 fractionation, in which water is rapidly scavenged into the first partial melt. The narrow ranges of delta D and delta O-18 in normal mantle are mostly due to the buffering effect of clino- and orthopyroxenes in the residual assemblage; additionally, fast ``wet'' diffusion of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes through the melting regions may further smooth isotopic differences. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical chaperones regulate molecular chaperones in vitro and in cells under combined salt and heat stresses.

Salt and heat stresses, which are often combined in nature, induce complementing defense mechanisms. Organisms adapt to high external salinity by accumulating small organic compounds known as osmolytes, which equilibrate cellular osmotic pressure. Osmolytes can also act as "chemical chaperones" by increasing the stability of native proteins and assisting refolding of unfolded polypeptides. Adaptation to heat stress depends on the expression of heat-shock proteins, many of which are molecular chaperones, that prevent protein aggregation, disassemble protein aggregates, and assist protein refolding. We show here that Escherichia coli cells preadapted to high salinity contain increased levels of glycine betaine that prevent protein aggregation under thermal stress. After heat shock, the aggregated proteins, which escaped protection, were disaggregated in salt-adapted cells as efficiently as in low salt. Here we address the effects of four common osmolytes on chaperone activity in vitro. Systematic dose responses of glycine betaine, glycerol, proline, and trehalose revealed a regulatory effect on the folding activities of individual and combinations of chaperones GroEL, DnaK, and ClpB. With the exception of trehalose, low physiological concentrations of proline, glycerol, and especially glycine betaine activated the molecular chaperones, likely by assisting local folding in chaperone-bound polypeptides and stabilizing the native end product of the reaction. High osmolyte concentrations, especially trehalose, strongly inhibited DnaK-dependent chaperone networks, such as DnaK+GroEL and DnaK+ClpB, likely because high viscosity affects dynamic interactions between chaperones and folding substrates and stabilizes protein aggregates. Thus, during combined salt and heat stresses, cells can specifically control protein stability and chaperone-mediated disaggregation and refolding by modulating the intracellular levels of different osmolytes.