Traiter l'hypertension artérielle: l'incertitude des définitions et des cibles [Managing hypertension: the uncertainty of definitions and targets].

In clinical practice, physicians are confronted with a multitude of definitions and treatment goals for arterial hypertension, depending of the diagnostic method used (e.g. office, home and ambulatory blood pressure measurement) and the underlying disease. The historical background and evidence of these different blood pressure thresholds are discussed in this article, as well as some recent treatment guidelines. Besides, the debate of the "J curve", namely the possible risks associated with an excessive blood pressure reduction, is discussed.

Propagation du virus de la grippe dans les transports aériens et survie du virus dans l'air ambiant

Chaque hiver en France, la grippe saisonnière touche entre 2 et 7 millions de personnes, dont environ 1 000 cas mortels, surtout parmi les personnes de plus de 65 ans. Elle constitue ainsi la première cause de mortalité par maladie infectieuse. L'agent causal est un virus à ARN très contagieux, pouvant appartenir à différent type (A, B ou C). Le type A est composé d'une large gamme de sous-types classés selon les différentes sortes et associations de protéines de surface du virus. Parmi ceux-ci, les sous-types H1N1 et H3N2 circulent actuellement chez l'Homme. La transmission inter-humaine de la maladie se fait principalement par voie aéroportée par le biais des gouttelettes riches en virus provenant des accès de toux et des éternuements des sujets infectés. Le coût sanitaire et social annuel de la grippe est estimé à 460 millions d'euros pour une épidémie moyenne. La prévention de la grippe repose sur une vaccination annuelle, proposée dans la plupart des pays industrialisés aux personnes à risque. Cependant, la couverture vaccinale en France n'était que de 23 % de la population générale en 2011-2012 (62 % chez les plus de 50 ans). Dès lors, environ 80 % des individus sont susceptibles de contracter la maladie. Les transports en commun constituent des environnements idéaux pour la dissémination des virus. En effet, la grande promiscuité entre les passagers potentiellement malades et les passagers sains favorise la propagation de la maladie. Dans ces conditions, l'évaluation du risque d'infection est utile pour appliquer une prévention ciblée. Le but du premier article analysé (Gupta et al., 2012) était, précisément, d'évaluer le risque, pour un passager sain, de contracter le virus de la grippe dans un avion transportant un passager malade. Les auteurs du second article analysé (Pyankov et al., 2012) ont estimé le temps de survie de différents sous-types de virus de la grippe dans l'air ambiant d'une chambre expérimentale.

Propagation velocity kinetics and repolarization alternans in a free-behaving sheep model of pacing-induced atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Experimental models have reported conflicting results regarding the role of dispersion of repolarization in promoting atrial fibrillation (AF). Repolarization alternans, a beat-to-beat alternation in action potential duration, enhances dispersion of repolarization when propagation velocity is involved. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this work, original electrophysiological parameters were analysed to study AF susceptibility in a chronic sheep model of pacing-induced AF. Two pacemakers were implanted, each with a single right atrial lead. Right atrial depolarization and repolarization waves were documented at 2-week intervals. A significant and gradual decrease in the propagation velocity at all pacing rates and in the right atrial effective refractory period (ERP) was observed during the weeks of burst pacing before sustained AF developed when compared with baseline conditions. Right atrial repolarization alternans was observed, but because of the development of 2/1 atrioventricular block with far-field ventricular interference, its threshold could not be precisely measured. Non-sustained AF was not observed at baseline, but appeared during the electrical remodelling in association with a decrease in both ERP and propagation velocity. CONCLUSION: We report here on the feasibility of measuring ERP, atrial repolarization alternans, and propagation velocity kinetics and their potential in predicting susceptibility to AF in a free-behaving model of pacing-induced AF using the standard pacemaker technology.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Velocity estimates for signal propagation leading to systemic jasmonic acid accumulation in wounded Arabidopsis.

The wound response prohormone jasmonic acid (JA) accumulates rapidly in tissues both proximal and distal to injury sites in plants. Using quantitative liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry after flash freezing of tissues, we found that JA accumulated within 30 s of injury in wounded Arabidopsis leaves (p = 3.5 e(-7)). JA augmentation distal to wounds was strongest in unwounded leaves with direct vascular connections to wounded leaves wherein JA levels increased significantly within 120 s of wounding (p = 0.00027). This gave conservative and statistically robust temporal boundaries for the average velocity of the long distance signal leading to distal JA accumulation in unwounded leaves of 3.4-4.5 cm min(-1). Like JA, transcripts of the JA synthesis gene LIPOXYGENASE2 (LOX2) and the jasmonate response gene JAZ10.3 also accumulated to higher levels in directly interconnected leaves than in indirectly connected leaves. JA accumulation in a lox2-1 mutant plant was initiated rapidly after wounding then slowed progressively compared with the wild type (WT). Despite this, JAZ10.3 expression in the two genotypes was similar. Free cyclopentenone jasmonate levels were similar in both resting WT and lox2-1. In contrast, bound cyclopentenone jasmonates (arabidopsides) were far lower in lox2-1 than in the WT. The major roles of LOX2 are to generate arabidopsides and the large levels of JA that accumulate proximal to the wound. LOX2 is not essential for some of the most rapid events elicited by wounding.

A pseudo-spectral method for the simulation of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates using domain decomposition

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates. An important application of this method and its extensions will be the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh, which can be arbitrarily heterogeneous, consisting of two or more concentric rings representing the fluid in the center and the surrounding porous medium. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction and a Fourier expansion in the azimuthal direction and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method is used to match the fluid-solid boundary conditions based on the method of characteristics. This multi-domain approach allows for significant reductions of the number of grid points in the azimuthal direction for the inner grid domain and thus for corresponding increases of the time step and enhancements of computational efficiency. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been rigorously tested and verified through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently bench-marked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. Finally, the proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is adequately handled.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

Quantitative comparison of simulations of seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous poro-elastic media involving fluid-solid interfaces and in equivalent visco-elastic solids

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities constitutes the predominant attenuation mechanism at seismic frequencies. As a consequence, centimeter-scale perturbations of the subsurface physical properties should be taken into account for seismic modeling whenever detailed and accurate responses of the target structures are desired. This is, however, computationally prohibitive since extremely small grid spacings would be necessary. A convenient way to circumvent this problem is to use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous porous media by equivalent visco-elastic solids. In this work, we solve Biot's equations of motion to perform numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation through porous media containing mesoscopic heterogeneities. We then use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous poro-elastic regions by homogeneous equivalent visco-elastic solids and repeat the simulations using visco-elastic equations of motion. We find that, despite the equivalent attenuation behavior of the heterogeneous poro-elastic medium and the equivalent visco-elastic solid, the seismograms may differ due to diverging boundary conditions at fluid-solid interfaces, where there exist additional options for the poro-elastic case. In particular, we observe that the seismograms agree for closed-pore boundary conditions, but differ significantly for open-pore boundary conditions. This is an interesting result, which has potentially important implications for wave-equation-based algorithms in exploration geophysics involving fluid-solid interfaces, such as, for example, wave field decomposition.

Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

A pseudo-spectral method for simulating of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in complex borehole environments

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in cylindrical coordinates. An important application of this method is the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh consisting of three concentric domains representing the borehole fluid in the center, the borehole casing and the surrounding porous formation. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction, Fourier expansions in the other directions, and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method based on the method of characteristics is used to match the boundary conditions at the fluid/porous-solid and porous-solid/porous-solid interfaces. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been tested and verified in 2D polar coordinates through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently benchmarked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. The proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is handled adequately.