Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Fluid-rock-strain feedbacks in extensional shear zones

La présence de fluide météorique synchrone à l'activité du détachement (Farmin, 2003 ; Mulch et al., 2007 ; Gébelin et al., 2011), implique que les zones de cisaillement sont des systèmes ouverts avec des cellules de convections à l'échelle crustale et un intense gradient géothermique au sein du détachement (Morrison et Anderson, 1998, Gottardi et al., 2011). De plus, les réactions métamorphiques liées à des infiltrations fluides dans les zones de cisaillement extensionnel peuvent influencer les paramètres rhéologiques du système (White and Knipe, 1978), et impliquer la localisation de la déformation dans la croûte. Dans ce manuscrit, deux zones de cisaillement infiltrées par des fluides météoriques sont étudiées, l'une étant largement quartzitique, et l'autre de nature granitique ; les relations entre déformation, fluides, et roches s'appuient sur des approches structurales, microstructurales, chimiques et isotopiques. L'étude du détachement du Columbia river (WA, USA) met en évidence que la déformation mylonitique se développe en un million d'années. La phase de cisaillement principal s'effectue à 365± 30°C d'après les compositions isotopiques en oxygène du quartz et de la muscovite. Ces minéraux atteignent l'équilibre isotopique lors de leur recristallisation dynamique contemporaine à la déformation. La zone de cisaillement enregistre une baisse de température, remplaçant le mécanisme de glissement par dislocation par celui de dissolution- précipitation dans les derniers stades de l'activité du détachement. La dynamique de circulation fluide bascule d'une circulation pervasive à chenalisée, ce qui engendre localement la rupture des équilibres d'échange isotopiques. La zone de cisaillement de Bitterroot (MT, USA) présente une zone mylonitique de 600m d'épaisseur, progressant des protomylonites aux ultramylonites. L'intensité de la localisation de la déformation se reflète directement sur l'hydratation des feldspaths, réaction métamorphique majeure dite de « rock softening ». Une étude sur roche totale indique des transferts de masse latéraux au sein des mylonites, et d'importantes pertes de volume dans les ultramylonites. La composition isotopique en hydrogène des phyllosilicates met en évidence la présence (1) d'une source magmatique/métamorphique originelle, caractérisée par les granodiorites ayant conservé leur foliation magmatique, jusqu'aux protomylonites, et (2) une source météorique qui tamponne les valeurs des phyllosilicates des fabriques mylonitiques jusqu'aux veines de quartz non-déformées. Les compositions isotopiques en oxygène des minéraux illustrent le tamponnement de la composition du fluide météorique par l'encaissant. Ce phénomène cesse lors du processus de chloritisation de la biotite, puisque les valeurs des chlorites sont extrêmement négatives (-10 per mil). La thermométrie isotopique indique une température d'équilibre isotopique de la granodiorite entre 600-500°C, entre 500-300°C dans les mylonites, et entre 300 et 200°C dans les fabriques cassantes (cataclasites et veines de quartz). Basé sur les résultats issus de ce travail, nous proposons un modèle général d'interactions fluide-roches-déformation dans les zones de détachements infiltrées par des fluides météoriques. Les zones de détachements évoluent rapidement (en quelques millions d'années) au travers de la transition fragile-ductile ; celle-ci étant partiellement contrôlée par l'effet thermique des circulations de fluide météoriques. Les systèmes de détachements sont des lieux où la déformation et les circulations fluides sont couplées ; évoluant rapidement vers une localisation de la déformation, et de ce fait, une exhumation efficace. - The presence of meteoric fluids synchronous with the activity of extensional detachment zones (Famin, 2004; Mulch et al., 2007; Gébelin et al., 2011) implies that extensional systems involve fluid convection at a crustal scale, which results in high geothermal gradients within active detachment zones (Morrison and Anderson, 1998, Gottardi et al., 2011). In addition, the metamorphic reactions related to fluid infiltration in extensional shear zones can influence the rheology of the system (White and Knipe, 1978) and ultimately how strain localizes in the crust. In this thesis, two shear zones that were permeated by meteoric fluids are studied, one quartzite-dominated, and the other of granitic composition; the relations between strain, fluid, and evolving rock composition are addressed using structural, microstructural, and chemical/isotopic measurements. The study of the Columbia River detachment that bounds the Kettle core complex (Washington, USA) demonstrates that the mylonitic fabrics in the 100 m thick quartzite- dominated detachment footwall developed within one million years. The main shearing stage occurred at 365 ± 30°C when oxygen isotopes of quartz and muscovite equilibrated owing to coeval deformation and dynamic recrystallization of these minerals. The detachment shear zone records a decrease in temperature, and dislocation creep during detachment shearing gave way to dissolution-precipitation and fracturing in the later stages of detachment activity. Fluid flow switched from pervasive to channelized, leading to isotopic disequilibrium between different minerals. The Bitterroot shear zone detachment (Montana, USA) developed a 600 m thick mylonite zone, with well-developed transitions from protomylonite to ultramylonite. The localization of deformation relates directly to the intensity of feldspar hydration, a major rock- softening metamorphic reaction. Bulk-rock analyses of the mylonitic series indicate lateral mass transfer in the mylonite (no volume change), and significant volume loss in ultramylonite. The hydrogen isotope composition of phyllosilicates shows (1) the presence of an initial magmatic/metamorphic source characterized by the granodiorite in which a magmatic, and gneissic (protomylonite) foliation developed, and (2) a meteoric source that buffers the values of phyllosilicates in mylonite, ultramylonite, cataclasite, and deformed and undeformed quartz veins. The mineral oxygen isotope compositions were buffered by the host-rock compositions until chloritization of biotite started; the chlorite oxygen isotope values are negative (-10 per mil). Isotope thermometry indicates a temperature of isotopic equilibrium of the granodiorite between 600-500°C, between 500-300°C in the mylonite, and between 300 and 200°C for brittle fabrics (cataclasite and quartz veins). Results from this work suggest a general model for fluid-rock-strain feedbacks in detachment systems that are permeated by meteoric fluids. Phyllosilicates have preserved in their hydrogen isotope values evidence for the interaction between rock and meteoric fluids during mylonite development. Fluid flow generates mass transfer along the tectonic anisotropy, and mylonites do not undergo significant volume change, except locally in ultramylonite zones. Hydration of detachment shear zones attends mechanical grain size reduction and enhances strain softening and localization. Self-exhuming detachment shear zones evolve rapidly (a few million years) through the transition from ductile to brittle, which is partly controlled by the thermal effect of circulating surface fluids. Detachment systems are zones in the crust where strain and fluid flow are coupled; these systems. evolve rapidly toward strain localization and therefore efficient exhumation.

Effets de la perfusion de facteurs natriurétiques auriculaires synthétiques sur quelques flux régionaux chez le volontaire sain [Effect of synthetic atrial natriuretic factors on various regional blood flows in the healthy subject]

The effects of continuous infusions of 2 synthetic atrial natriuretic peptides Ile12-(3-28) (rANP) and Meth12-(3-28) (hANP) eicosahexapeptides on blood pressure, heart rate, skin blood flow, glomerular filtration rate, renal plasma flow, apparent hepatic blood flow, and carotid blood flow were evaluated in normal volunteers. A rANP infusion at increasing rates (1-40 micrograms/min) induced a decrease in blood pressure, an increase in heart rate and in skin blood flow linearly related to the dose administered. In contrast, hANP infusion at 1 microgram/min for 4 hours induced an initial increase followed by a secondary fall in skin blood flow without blood pressure changes. A 4-hour rANP infusion at 0.5 and 5 mcg/min did not alter glomerular filtration rate but induced a delayed and dose-related fall in renal plasma flow from 531 to 461 (p less than 0.05), and from 554 to 342 ml/min (p less than 0.001) respectively, with a consequential rise in the filtration fraction. The 5 mcg/min dose furthermore significantly reduced blood pressure following a latency period of 2.5 hours. A 2-hours rANP infusion at 0.5 micrograms/min induced a fall in apparent hepatic blood flow from 1,087 to 863 ml/min (p less than 0.01), without simultaneously altering blood pressure. Similarly, a 2-hour hANP infusion at 2 micrograms/min altered neither blood pressure nor carotid blood flow. In conclusion, ANP infusion induced changes in systemic and regional hemodynamics varying in direction, intensity and duration.

Viscoelasticity in Achilles Tendonopathy: Quantitative Assessment by Using Real-time Shear-Wave Elastography.

Purpose To investigate the differences in viscoelastic properties between normal and pathologic Achilles tendons ( AT Achilles tendon s) by using real-time shear-wave elastography ( SWE shear-wave elastography ). Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved this study, and written informed consent was obtained from 25 symptomatic patients and 80 volunteers. One hundred eighty ultrasonographic (US) and SWE shear-wave elastography studies of AT Achilles tendon s without tendonopathy and 30 studies of the middle portion of the AT Achilles tendon in patients with tendonopathy were assessed prospectively. Each study included data sets acquired at B-mode US (tendon morphology and cross-sectional area) and SWE shear-wave elastography (axial and sagittal mean velocity and relative anisotropic coefficient) for two passively mobilized ankle positions. The presence of AT Achilles tendon tears at B-mode US and signal-void areas at SWE shear-wave elastography were noted. Results Significantly lower mean velocity was shown in tendons with tendonopathy than in normal tendons in the relaxed position at axial SWE shear-wave elastography (P < .001) and in the stretched position at sagittal (P < .001) and axial (P = .0026) SWE shear-wave elastography . Tendon softening was a sign of tendonopathy in relaxed AT Achilles tendon s when the mean velocity was less than or equal to 4.06 m · sec(-1) at axial SWE shear-wave elastography (sensitivity, 54.2%; 95% confidence interval [ CI confidence interval ]: 32.8, 74.4; specificity, 91.5%; 95% CI confidence interval : 86.3, 95.1) and less than or equal to 5.70 m · sec(-1) at sagittal SWE shear-wave elastography (sensitivity, 41.7%; 95% CI confidence interval : 22.1, 63.3; specificity, 81.8%; 95% CI confidence interval : 75.3, 87.2) and in stretched AT Achilles tendon s, when the mean velocity was less than or equal to 4.86 m · sec(-1) at axial SWE shear-wave elastography (sensitivity, 66.7%; 95% CI confidence interval : 44.7, 84.3; specificity, 75.6%; 95% CI confidence interval : 68.5, 81.7) and less than or equal to 14.58 m · sec(-1) at sagittal SWE shear-wave elastography (sensitivity, 58.3%; 95% CI confidence interval : 36.7, 77.9; specificity, 83.5%; 95% CI confidence interval : 77.2, 88.7). Anisotropic results were not significantly different between normal and pathologic AT Achilles tendon s. Six of six (100%) partial-thickness tears appeared as signal-void areas at SWE shear-wave elastography . Conclusion Whether the AT Achilles tendon was relaxed or stretched, SWE shear-wave elastography helped to confirm and quantify pathologic tendon softening in patients with tendonopathy in the midportion of the AT Achilles tendon and did not reveal modifications of viscoelastic anisotropy in the tendon. Tendon softening assessed by using SWE shear-wave elastography appeared to be highly specific, but sensitivity was relatively low. © RSNA, 2014.

Juxtaposition of melt impregnation and high-temperature shear zones in the upper mantle; field and petrological constraints from the Lanzo peridotite (Northern Italy)

Results of a field and microstructural study between the northern and the central bodies of the Lanzo plagioclase peridotite massif (NW Italy) indicate that the spatial distribution of deformation is asymmetric across kilometre-scale mantle shear zones. The southwestern part of the shear zone (footwall) shows a gradually increasing degree of deformation from porphyroclastic peridotites to mylonite, whereas the northeastern part (hanging wall) quickly grades into weakly deformed peridotites. Discordant gabbroic and basaltic dykes are asymmetrically distributed and far more abundant in the footwall of the shear zone. The porphyroclastic peridotite displays porphyroclastic zones and domains of igneous crystallization whereas mylonites are characterized by elongated porphyroclasts, embedded between fine-grained, polycrystalline bands of olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, spinel, rare titanian pargasite, and domains of recrystallized olivine. Two types of melt impregnation textures have been found: (1) clinopyroxene porphyroclasts incongruently reacted with migrating melt to form orthopyroxene plagioclase; (2) olivine porphyroclasts are partially replaced by interstitial orthopyroxene. The meltrock reaction textures tend to disappear in the mylonites, indicating that deformation in the mylonite continued under subsolidus conditions. The pyroxene chemistry is correlated with grain size. High-Al pyroxene cores indicate high temperatures (11001030C), whereas low-Al neoblasts display lower final equilibration temperatures (860C). The spinel Cr-number [molar Cr/(Cr Al)] and TiO2 concentrations show extreme variability covering almost the entire range known from abyssal peridotites. The spinel compositions of porphyroclastic peridotites from the central body are more variable than spinel from mylonite, mylonite with ultra-mylonite bands, and porphyroclastic rocks of the northern body. The spinel compositions probably indicate disequilibrium and would favour rapid cooling, and a faster exhumation of the central peridotite body, relative to the northern one. Our results indicate that melt migration and high-temperature deformation are juxtaposed both in time and space. Meltrock reaction may have caused grain-size reduction, which in turn led to localization of deformation. It is likely that melt-lubricated, actively deforming peridotites acted as melt focusing zones, with permeabilities higher than the surrounding, less deformed peridotites. Later, under subsolidus conditions, pinning in polycrystalline bands in the mylonites inhibited substantial grain growth and led to permanent weak zones in the upper mantle peridotite, with a permeability that is lower than in the weakly deformed peridotites. Such an inversion in permeability might explain why actively deforming, fine-grained peridotite mylonite acted as a permeability barrier and why ascending mafic melts might terminate and crystallize as gabbros along actively deforming shear zones. Melt-lubricated mantle shear zones provide a mechanism for explaining the discontinuous distribution of gabbros in oceancontinent transition zones, oceanic core complexes and ultraslow-spreading ridges.

Termination of major ductile strike-slip shear and differential cooling along the Insubric line (Central Alps): U-Pb, Rb-Sr and 40Ar/39Ar ages of cross-cutting pegmatites

To constrain the age of strike-slip shear, related granitic magmatism, and cooling along the Insubric line, 29 size fractions of monazite and xenotime were dated by the U-Pb method, and a series of 25 Rb-Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 ages were measured on different size fractions of muscovite and biotite. The three pegmatitic intrusions analyzed truncate high-grade metamorphic mylonite gneisses of the Simplon shear zone, a major Alpine structure produced in association with dextral strike-slip movements along the southern edge of the European plate, after collision with its Adriatic indenter. Pegmatites and aplites were produced between 29 and 25 Ma in direct relation to right-lateral shear along the Insubric line, by melting of continental crust having Sr-87/Sr-86 between 0.7199 and 0.7244 at the time of melting. High-temperature dextral strike-slip shear was active at 29.2 +/- 0.2 (2 sigma) Ma, and it terminated before 26.4 +/- 0.1 Ma. During dike injection, temperatures in the country rocks of the Isorno-Orselina and Monte Rosa structural units did not exceed approximate to 500 degrees C, leading to fast initial cooling, followed by slower cooling to approximate to 350 degrees C within several million years. In one case, initial cooling to approximate to 500 degrees C was significantly delayed by about 4 m.y., with final cooling to approximate to 300 degrees C at 20-19 Ma in all units. For the period between 29 and 19 Ma, cooling of the three sample localities was non-uniform in space and time, with significant variations on the kilometre scale. These differences are most likely due to strongly varying heat flow, and/or heterogeneous distribution of unroofing rates within the continuously deforming Insubric line. If entirely ascribed to differences in unroofing, corresponding rates would vary between 0.5 and 2.5 mm/y, for a thermal gradient of 30 degrees/km.

Flujos de detritos recientes en la cordillera frontal de Mendoza: Un ejemplo de riesgo natural en la ruta 7 = Recent debris flows in the Frontal Cordillera of Mendoza: An example of natural risk on the Road 7

In this paper is presented a study dealing with the debris flows that reached the national road 7 in January 2005, in the km 1,118.5, Mendoza province. The area is located in the Frontal Cordillera near the limit of the Precordillera. A detailed geomorphologic map has been realized for this study using a Quickbird satellite imagery of the year 2006. Various calculations of volumes, velocities and peak discharges have been performed with the field data and using a geographic information system (GIS). The geomorphologic survey has permitted to propose three propagation scenarios in case of a new event. These allowed creating a map of debris flows susceptibility for the stretch of the road that has been studied. Finally, it has been proposed protection and mitigation measures, based on the results of the study, to protect the road from a new event.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

A two-phase composite in simple shear: Effective mechanical anisotropy development and localization potential

We present a combined shape and mechanical anisotropy evolution model for a two-phase inclusion-bearing rock subject to large deformation. A single elliptical inclusion embedded in a homogeneous but anisotropic matrix is used to represent a simplified shape evolution enforced on all inclusions. The mechanical anisotropy develops due to the alignment of elongated inclusions. The effective anisotropy is quantified using the differential effective medium (DEM) approach. The model can be run for any deformation path and an arbitrary viscosity ratio between the inclusion and host phase. We focus on the case of simple shear and weak inclusions. The shape evolution of the representative inclusion is largely insensitive to the anisotropy development and to parameter variations in the studied range. An initial hardening stage is observed up to a shear strain of gamma = 1 irrespective of the inclusion fraction. The hardening is followed by a softening stage related to the developing anisotropy and its progressive rotation toward the shear direction. The traction needed to maintain a constant shear rate exhibits a fivefold drop at gamma = 5 in the limiting case of an inviscid inclusion. Numerical simulations show that our analytical model provides a good approximation to the actual evolution of a two-phase inclusion-host composite. However, the inclusions develop complex sigmoidal shapes resulting in the formation of an S-C fabric. We attribute the observed drop in the effective normal viscosity to this structural development. We study the localization potential in a rock column bearing varying fraction of inclusions. In the inviscid inclusion case, a strain jump from gamma = 3 to gamma = 100 is observed for a change of the inclusion fraction from 20% to 33%.

Evolution of a polymineralic mantle shear zone and the role of second phases in the localization of deformation

The influence of second phases (e.g., pyroxenes) on olivine grain size was studied by quantitative microfabric analyses of samples of the Hilti massif mantle shear zone (Semail ophiolite, Oman). The microstructures range from porphyroclastic tectonites to ultramylonites, from outside to the center of the shear zone. Starting at conditions of ridge-related flow, they formed under continuous cooling leading to progressive strain localization. The dependence of the average olivine grain size on the second-phase content can be split into a second-phase controlled and a dynamic recrystallization-controlled field. In the former, the olivine grain size is related to the ratio between the second-phase grain size and volume fraction (Zener parameter). In the latter, dynamic recrystallization manifested by a balance between grain growth and grain size reduction processes yields a stable olivine grain size. In both fields the average olivine and second-phase grain size decreases with decreasing temperature. Combining the microstructural information with deformation mechanism maps suggests that the porphyroclastic tectonites (similar to 1100 degrees C) and mylonites (similar to 800 degrees C) formed under the predominance of dislocation creep. Since olivine-rich layers are intercalated with layer parallel, polymineralic bands in the mylonites, nearly equiviscous conditions can be assumed. In the ultramylonites, diffusion creep represents the major deformation mechanism in the polymineralic layers. It is this switch in deformation mechanism from dislocation creep to diffusion creep that forces strain to localize in the fine-grained polymineralic domains at low temperatures (<similar to 700 degrees C), underlining the role of the second phases on strain localization in cooling mantle rocks.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.