Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Frequency and impact of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: As little such data is available in African populations, we investigated the prevalence of ADPKD and the impact of the disease in the Seychelles islands, where approximately 65% of the population is of African descent and 30% of Caucasian or mixed descent. METHODS: Prevalent cases were identified over a 3-year period by requesting all the doctors in the country (most of them are employed within a national health system) to refer all presumed or confirmed cases and by systematically examining the family members of all confirmed cases. The diagnosis was based on standard criteria including ultrasonographic findings and family history. RESULTS: Forty-two cases were identified in this population of 74,331 inhabitants, a total prevalence (per 100,000 total population) of 57 (95% CI, 41-76). All but one of the cases were of Caucasian descent so that the prevalence rates of the disease in the populations of Black and Caucasian descents were respectively 2 (0-11) and 184 (132-249). The prevalence rates of the gene(s) carriers were estimated to be 75 (45-117) in the total population respectively 6 (0-33) and 236 (140-372) in the Black and Caucasian populations. Haplotype analysis in 58 cases from three families showed a common DNA fragment in all affected individuals. Cases had significantly higher blood pressure compared to the general population and 21% had serum creatinine higher than 120 mumol/l. Among the established pedigrees, mean age of death between 1960 and 1995 (haemodialysis was introduced in 1992) was younger in subjects with than those without ADPKD (50.5 vs 67.7 years; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In the Seychelles, ADPKD clusters in the Caucasian population (possibly a founder effect), is rare in individuals of black descent, and is associated with substantial clinical and survival impact.

Statistical discrimination of black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

Pearson correlation coefficients were applied for the objective comparison of 30 black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS). The mass spectra were obtained for ink lines directly on paper using positive and negative ion modes at several laser intensities. This methodology has the advantage of taking into account the reproducibility of the results as well as the variability between spectra of different pens. A differentiation threshold could thus be selected in order to avoid the risk of false differentiation. Combining results from positive and negative mode yielded a discriminating power up to 85%, which was better than the one obtained previously with other optical comparison methodologies. The technique also allowed discriminating between pens from the same brand.

Artifact-free coronary magnetic resonance angiography and coronary vessel wall imaging in the presence of a new, metallic, coronary magnetic resonance imaging stent.

BACKGROUND: Coronary in-stent restenosis cannot be directly assessed by magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) because of the local signal void of currently used stainless steel stents. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of a new, dedicated, coronary MR imaging (MRI) stent for artifact-free, coronary MRA and in-stent lumen and vessel wall visualization. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifteen prototype stents were deployed in coronary arteries of 15 healthy swine and investigated with a double-oblique, navigator-gated, free-breathing, T2-prepared, 3D cartesian gradient-echo sequence; a T2-prepared, 3D spiral gradient-echo sequence; and a T2-prepared, 3D steady-state, free-precession coronary MRA sequence. Furthermore, black-blood vessel wall imaging by a dual-inversion-recovery, turbo spin-echo sequence was performed. Artifacts of the stented vessel segment and signal intensities of the coronary vessel lumen inside and outside the stent were assessed. With all investigated sequences, the vessel lumen and wall could be visualized without artifacts, including the stented vessel segment. No signal intensity alterations inside the stent when compared with the vessel lumen outside the stent were found. CONCLUSIONS: The new, coronary MRI stent allows for completely artifact-free coronary MRA and vessel wall imaging.

Molecular and isotopic characterization of organic samples from the wreck of the Saint-Etienne merchant ship (XVIIIth century): Identification of pitch, fat, hair and sulfur

The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship's bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called ``couroi'' or ``stuff'. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C(14:0), C(16:0), C(18:0)) were detected in the yellow coat. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Soja and Luzzone-Terri nappes: discovery of a Briançonnais element below the front of the Adula nappe (NE Ticino, Central Alps)

The classical Soja nappe, in NE Ticino, actually consists of two distinct tectonic units with verydifferent stratigraphic contents: (1) The smaller one, in the Val Soi (the type-locality), is by definitionthe Soja unit s.str.. It is pinched between Simano and Adula and consists of various Paleozoic gneissesand a dolomitic Triassic cover analogous to the Triassic of other Lower Penninic nappes. (2) The largerone extends along the Lago di Luzzone and continues eastwards through the Piz Terri mountain. Wename it the Luzzone-Terri nappe. It consists of: (a) a paragneiss series that presents striking similaritieswith the Permian of the Zone Houillère in Valais; (b) a Triassic cover typical of the Briançonnaisdomain where one clearly recognizes the St-Triphon Formation and other characteristic units of theBriançonnais Triassic; (c) a thick series of black calcschists and metapelites of Liassic age, similarto the cover of the neighbouring Gotthard massif. This stratigraphic superposition of a Liassic seriesof Helvetic type on a Briançonnais Triassic is unique in the Alps and has important paleogeographicconsequences. It is difficult to reconcile this observation with speculative reconstructions that proposean original position of the Briançonnais domain far from the Helvetic basins. Morover the Briançonnaischaracter of its Triassic series indicates an ultra-Adula origin of the Luzzone-Terri nappe.

Spatial variation in the temporal change of male and female melanic ornamentation in the barn owl.

Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.

Molecular evidence of Pleistocene bidirectional faunal exchange between Europe and the Near East: the case of the bicoloured shrew (Crocidura leucodon, Soricidae).

We sequenced 1077 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 511 bp of the nuclear Apolipoprotein B gene in bicoloured shrew (Crocidura leucodon, Soricidae) populations ranging from France to Georgia. The aims of the study were to identify the main genetic clades within this species and the influence of Pleistocene climatic variations on the respective clades. The mitochondrial analyses revealed a European clade distributed from France eastwards to north-western Turkey and a Near East clade distributed from Georgia to Romania; the two clades separated during the Middle Pleistocene. We clearly identified a population expansion after a bottleneck for the European clade based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequencing data; this expansion was not observed for the eastern clade. We hypothesize that the western population was confined to a small Italo-Balkanic refugium, whereas the eastern population subsisted in several refugia along the southern coast of the Black Sea.

The puzzles of the prokineticin 2 pathway in human reproduction.

Prokineticin, 1 (PROK1) and prokineticin 2 (PROK2), are two closely related proteins that were identified as the mammalian homologs of their two amphibian homologs, mamba intestinal toxin (MIT-1) and Bv8. MIT-1 was initially identified as a non-toxic constituent in the venom of the black mamba snake (Dendroaspis polylepis) (Joubert and Strydom, 1980) while Bv8 was identified in the skin secretion of the toad, Bombina variegate (Mollay et al., 1999). All three homologs stimulate gastrointestinal motility thus accounting for their family name "prokineticins" (Schweitz et al., 1990, 1999). However, since its initial description, both PROK1 and PROK2 have been found to regulate a dazzling array of biological functions throughout the body. In particular, PROK1 acts as a potent angiogenic mitogen on endocrine vascular epithelium, thus earning its other name, Endocrine gland-vascular endothelial factor (EG-VEGF) (LeCouter et al., 2002). In contrast, the PROK2 signaling pathway is a critical regulator of olfactory bulb morphogenesis and sexual maturation in mammals and this function is the focus of this review.

Salicylic Acid Biosynthetic Genes Expressed in Pseudomonas fluorescens Strain P3 Improve the Induction of Systemic Resistance in Tobacco Against Tobacco Necrosis Virus.

ABSTRACT Application of salicylic acid induces systemic acquired resistance in tobacco. pchA and pchB, which encode for the biosynthesis of salicylic acid in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were cloned into two expression vectors, and these constructs were introduced into two root-colonizing strains of P. fluorescens. Introduction of pchBA into strain P3, which does not produce salicylic acid, rendered this strain capable of salicylic acid production in vitro and significantly improved its ability to induce systemic resistance in tobacco against tobacco necrosis virus. Strain CHA0 is a well-described biocontrol agent that naturally produces salicylic acid under conditions of iron limitation. Introduction of pchBA into CHA0 increased the production of salicylic acid in vitro and in the rhizosphere of tobacco, but did not improve the ability of CHA0 to induce systemic resistance in tobacco. In addition, these genes did not improve significantly the capacity of strains P3 and CHA0 to suppress black root rot of tobacco in a gnotobiotic system.

Insularity and the evolution of melanism, sexual dichromatism and body size in the worldwide-distributed barn owl.

Abstract Island biogeography has provided fundamental hypotheses in population genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology. Insular populations usually face different feeding conditions, predation pressure, intraspecific and interspecific competition than continental populations. This so-called island syndrome can promote the evolution of specific phenotypes like a small (or large) body size and a light (or dark) colouration as well as influence the evolution of sexual dimorphism. To examine whether insularity leads to phenotypic differentiation in a consistent way in a worldwide-distributed nonmigratory species, we compared body size, body shape and colouration between insular and continental barn owl (Tyto alba) populations by controlling indirectly for phylogeny. This species is suitable because it varies in pheomelanin-based colouration from reddish-brown to white, and it displays eumelanic black spots for which the number and size vary between individuals, populations and species. Females are on average darker pheomelanic and display more and larger eumelanic spots than males. Our results show that on islands barn owls exhibited smaller and fewer eumelanic spots and lighter pheomelanic colouration, and shorter wings than on continents. Sexual dimorphism in pheomelanin-based colouration was less pronounced on islands than continents (i.e. on islands males tended to be as pheomelanic as females), and on small islands owls were redder pheomelanic and smaller in size than owls living on larger islands. Sexual dimorphism in the size of eumelanic spots was more pronounced (i.e. females displayed much larger spots than males) in barn owls living on islands located further away from a continent. Our study indicates that insular conditions drive the evolution towards a lower degree of eumelanism, smaller body size and affects the evolution of sexual dichromatism in melanin-based colour traits. The effect of insularity was more pronounced on body size and shape than on melanic traits.

An epidemiologic study to determine the prevalence of the HLA-B*5701 allele among HIV-positive patients in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: HLA-B*5701 is a major histocompatibility complex class I allele associated with an immunologically-mediated hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir. The objectives of this study were to evaluate HLA-B*5701 prevalence among European, HIV-1-infected patients and to compare the local and central laboratory screening results. METHODS: Data were combined from six multicentre, prospective studies involving 10 European countries in which HIV-1-infected patients (irrespective of treatment experience or previous HLA-B*5701 screening), >or=18 years of age, were evaluated for HLA-B*5701 carriage, determined by the central and local laboratory methods. RESULTS: A total of 9720 patients from 272 centres were included in the analysis. The overall estimate of HLA-B*5701 prevalence in Europe was 4.98%, with country-specific estimates ranging from 1.53 to 7.75%. HLA-B*5701 prevalence was highest in the self-reported white population (6.49%) and lowest in the black population (0.39%). Local laboratory results had a high specificity (99.9%) and sensitivity (99.2%) when compared with the central laboratory results. CONCLUSION: This study supports data from previous studies regarding the prevalence of HLA-B*5701 in the HIV population and the variation of HLA-B*5701 prevalence between different racial groups. The high specificity and sensitivity of local laboratory results, suggests that clinicians can be confident in using local laboratories for pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening. However, it is essential that local laboratories participate in HLA-B*5701-specific quality assurance programs to maintain 100% sensitivity. In HIV-infected patients, pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening may allow more informed decisions regarding abacavir use and has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency of abacavir-related hypersensitivity reactions and costs associated with managing these reactions.

The impact of spatial resolution and respiratory motion on MR imaging of atherosclerotic plaque.

PURPOSE: To examine the impact of spatial resolution and respiratory motion on the ability to accurately measure atherosclerotic plaque burden and to visually identify atherosclerotic plaque composition. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Numerical simulations of the Bloch equations and vessel wall phantom studies were performed for different spatial resolutions by incrementally increasing the field of view. In addition, respiratory motion was simulated based on a measured physiologic breathing pattern. RESULTS: While a spatial resolution of > or = 6 pixels across the wall does not result in significant errors, a resolution of < or = 4 pixels across the wall leads to an overestimation of > 20%. Using a double-inversion T2-weighted turbo spin echo sequence, a resolution of 1 pixel across equally thick tissue layers (fibrous cap, lipid, smooth muscle) and a respiratory motion correction precision (gating window) of three times the thickness of the tissue layer allow for characterization of the different coronary wall components. CONCLUSIONS: We found that measurements in low-resolution black blood images tend to overestimate vessel wall area and underestimate lumen area.

Cadmium-free quantum dots in aqueous solution: potential for fingermark detection, synthesis and an application to the detection of fingermarks in blood on non-porous surfaces

The use of quantum dots (QDs) in the area of fingermark detection is currently receiving a lot of attention in the forensic literature. Most of the research efforts have been devoted to cadmium telluride (CdTe) quantum dots often applied as powders to the surfaces of interests. Both the use of cadmium and the nano size of these particles raise important issues in terms of health and safety. This paper proposes to replace CdTe QDs by zinc sulphide QDs doped with copper (ZnS:Cu) to address these issues. Zinc sulphide-copper doped QDs were successfully synthesized, characterized in terms of size and optical properties and optimized to be applied for the detection of impressions left in blood, where CdTe QDs proved to be efficient. Effectiveness of detection was assessed in comparison with CdTe QDs and Acid Yellow 7 (AY7, an effective blood reagent), using two series of depletive blood fingermarks from four donors prepared on four non-porous substrates, i.e. glass, transparent polypropylene, black polyethylene and aluminium foil. The marks were cut in half and processed separately with both reagents, leading to two comparison series (ZnS:Cu vs. CdTe, and ZnS:Cu vs. AY7). ZnS:Cu proved to be better than AY7 and at least as efficient as CdTe on most substrates. Consequently, copper-doped ZnS QDs constitute a valid substitute for cadmium-based QDs to detect blood marks on non-porous substrates and offer a safer alternative for routine use.

Metabolic syndrome and the risk of cardiovascular disease in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess whether metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) predicts a higher risk for cardiovascular events in older adults. BACKGROUND: The importance of MetSyn as a risk factor has not previously focused on older adults and deserves further study. METHODS: We studied the impact of MetSyn (38% prevalence) on outcomes in 3,035 participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study (51% women, 42% black, ages 70 to 79 years). RESULTS: During a 6-year follow-up, there were 434 deaths overall, 472 coronary events (CE), 213 myocardial infarctions (MI), and 231 heart failure (HF) hospital stays; 59% of the subjects had at least one hospital stay. Coronary events, MI, HF, and overall hospital stays occurred significantly more in subjects with MetSyn (19.9% vs. 12.9% for CE, 9.1% vs. 5.7% for MI, 10.0% vs. 6.1% for HF, and 63.1% vs. 56.1% for overall hospital stay; all p < 0.001). No significant differences in overall mortality was seen; however, there was a trend toward higher cardiovascular mortality (5.1% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.067) and coronary mortality (4.5% vs. 3.2%, p = 0.051) in patients with MetSyn. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, patients with MetSyn were at a significantly higher risk for CE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28 to 1.91), MI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.05), and HF hospital stay (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.00). Women and whites with MetSyn had a higher coronary mortality rate. The CE rate was higher among subjects with diabetes and with MetSyn; those with both had the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, subjects over 70 years are at high risk for cardiovascular events; MetSyn in this group is associated with a significantly greater risk.