Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2008 Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to January 2009), and EMBASE (1980 to January 2009). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included eleven trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that CO measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other seven trials. One trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62). One trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77; 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers. Five trials failed to detect evidence of a significant effect. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO + genetic susceptibility as two different intervention; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. Three others used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings, and one tested for a genetic marker. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analysis.

Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

PFO closure vs. medical therapy in cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure is superior to medical therapy in preventing recurrence of cryptogenic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). METHODS: We searched PubMed for randomized trials which compared PFO closure with medical therapy in cryptogenic stroke/TIA using the items: "stroke or cerebrovascular accident or TIA" and "patent foramen ovale or paradoxical embolism" and "trial or study". RESULTS: Among 650 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included including 2303 patients. There was no statistically significant difference between PFO-closure and medical therapy in ischemic stroke recurrence (1.91% vs. 2.94% respectively, OR: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.37-1.10), TIA (2.08% vs. 2.42% respectively, OR: 0.87, 95%CI: 0.50-1.51) and death (0.60% vs. 0.86% respectively, OR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.28-1.82). In subgroup analysis, there was significant reduction of ischemic strokes in the AMPLATZER PFO Occluder arm vs. medical therapy (1.4% vs. 3.04% respectively, OR: 0.46, 95%CI: 0.21-0.98, relative-risk-reduction: 53.2%, absolute-risk-reduction: 1.6%, number-needed-to-treat: 61.8) but not in the STARFlex device (2.7% vs. 2.8% with medical therapy, OR: 0.93, 95%CI: 0.45-2.11). Compared to medical therapy, the number of patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) was similar in the AMPLATZER PFO Occluder arm (0.72% vs. 1.28% respectively, OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 0.60-5.42) but higher in the STARFlex device (0.64% vs. 5.14% respectively, OR: 8.30, 95%CI: 2.47-27.84). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis does not support PFO closure for secondary prevention with unselected devices in cryptogenic stroke/TIA. In subgroup analysis, selected closure devices may be superior to medical therapy without increasing the risk of new-onset AF, however. This observation should be confirmed in further trials using inclusion criteria for patients with high likelihood of PFO-related stroke recurrence.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Nonvitamin-k-antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Biological embedding of early life exposures and disease risk in humans: a role for DNA methylation.

BACKGROUND: Following wider acceptance of "the thrifty phenotype" hypothesis and the convincing evidence that early life exposures can influence adult health even decades after the exposure, much interest has been placed on the mechanisms through which early life exposures become biologically embedded. METHODS: In this review, we summarize the current literature regarding biological embedding of early life experiences. To this end we conducted a literature search to identify studies investigating early life exposures in relation to DNA methylation changes. In addition, we summarize the challenges faced in investigations of epigenetic effects, stemming from the peculiarities of this emergent and complex field. A proper systematic review and meta-analyses were not feasible given the nature of the evidence. RESULTS: We identified 7 studies on early life socioeconomic circumstances, 10 studies on childhood obesity, and 6 studies on early life nutrition all relating to DNA methylation changes that met the stipulated inclusion criteria. The pool of evidence gathered, albeit small, favours a role of epigenetics and DNA methylation in biological embedding, but replication of findings, multiple comparison corrections, publication bias, and causality are concerns remaining to be addressed in future investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these results, we hypothesize that epigenetics, in particular DNA methylation, is a plausible mechanism through which early life exposures are biologically embedded. This review describes the current status of the field and acts as a stepping stone for future, better designed investigations on how early life exposures might become biologically embedded through epigenetic effects. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Physicians' estimates of the 10 year cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: an evaluation in primary care physicians in training.

To evaluate how young physicians in training perceive their patients' cardiovascular risk based on the medical charts and their clinical judgment. Cross sectional observational study. University outpatient clinic, Lausanne, Switzerland. Two hundred hypertensive patients and 50 non-hypertensive patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Comparison of the absolute 10-year cardiovascular risk calculated by a computer program based on the Framingham score and adapted for physicians by the WHO/ISH with the perceived risk as assessed clinically by the physicians. Physicians underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular risk of their patients compared to that calculated with the Framingham score. Concordance between methods was 39% for hypertensive patients and 30% for non-hypertensive patients. Underestimation of cardiovascular risks for hypertensive patients was related to the fact they had a stabilized systolic blood pressure under 140 mm Hg (OR = 2.1 [1.1; 4.1]). These data show that young physicians in training often have an incorrect perception of the cardiovascular risk of their patients with a tendency to underestimate the risk. However, the calculated risk could also be slightly overestimated when applying the Framingham Heart Study model to a Swiss population. To implement a systematic evaluation of risk factors in primary care a greater emphasis should be placed on the teaching of cardiovascular risk evaluation and on the implementation of quality improvement programs.

Influence of high cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people on the duration and cost of sick leave: results of the ICARIA study.

AIMS: We investigated the potential influence of a moderate-to-high cardiovascular (CV) risk (CVR) (defined as a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model, or SCORE ≥ 4%), in the absence of an established CV disease, on the duration and cost of CV and non-CV sick leave (SL) resulting from common and occupational accidents or diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 690 135 workers with a 1-year follow-up and examined CV- and non-CV-related SL episodes. To obtain baseline values, CVR factors were initially assessed at the beginning of the year during routine medical examination. The CVR was calculated with the SCORE charts for all subjects. Moderate-to-high CVR was defined as SCORE ≥ 4%. A baseline SCORE ≥ 4% was associated with a higher risk for long-term CV and non-CV SL, as revealed by follow-up assessment. This translated into an increased cost, estimated at euro5 801 464.18 per year. Furthermore, pharmacological treatment for hypertension or hyperlipidaemia was significantly associated with longer SL duration. CONCLUSION: Moderate-to-high CVR in asymptomatic subjects was significantly associated with the duration and cost of CV and non-CV SL. These results constitute the first body of evidence that the SCORE charts can be used to identify people with a non-established CV disease, which might ultimately translate into more lost workdays and therefore increased cost for society.

Lupus erythematosus and other autoimmune diseases related to statin therapy: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Statins have been increasingly associated with drug-induced autoimmune reactions, including lupus erythematosus. OBJECTIVE: To identify and determine the clinical and biological characteristics of statin-induced autoimmune reactions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The MEDLINE database (1966 to September 2005) was used to identify all reported cases of statin-induced autoimmune diseases. The keywords used were statins, 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors, adverse effects, autoimmune disease, lupus erythematosus, dermatomyositis and polymyositis. RESULTS: Twenty-eight cases of statin-induced autoimmune diseases have been published so far. Systemic lupus erythematosus was reported in 10 cases, subacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus in three cases, dermatomyositis and polymyositis in 14 cases and lichen planus pemphigoides in one case. Autoimmune hepatitis was observed in two patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. The mean time of exposure before disease onset was 12.8+/-18 months; range 1 month-6 years. Systemic immunosuppressive therapy was required in the majority of cases. In many patients, antinuclear antibodies were still positive many months after clinical recovery. A lethal outcome has been recorded in two patients despite aggressive immunosuppressive therapy. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to statins may be associated with drug-induced lupus erythematosus and other autoimmune disorders. Fatal cases have been reported despite early drug discontinuation and aggressive systemic immunosuppressive therapy.

Intrauterine exposure to carbamazepine and specific congenital malformations: systematic review and case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify specific major congenital malformations associated with use of carbamazepine in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: A review of all published cohort studies to identify key indications and a population based case-control study to test these indications. SETTING: Review of PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for papers about carbamazepine exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy and specific malformations, and the EUROCAT Antiepileptic Study Database, including data from 19 European population based congenital anomaly registries, 1995-2005. PARTICIPANTS: The literature review covered eight cohort studies of 2680 pregnancies with carbamazepine monotherapy exposure, and the EUROCAT dataset included 98 075 registrations of malformations covering over 3.8 million births. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. Odds ratios for malformations with exposure to carbamazepine among cases (five types of malformation identified in the literature review) compared with two groups of controls: other non-chromosomal registrations of malformations and chromosomal syndromes. RESULTS: The literature review yielded an overall prevalence for a major congenital malformation of 3.3% (95% confidence interval 2.7 to 4.2) after exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy in the first trimester. In 131 registrations of malformations, the fetus had been exposed to carbamazepine monotherapy. Spina bifida was the only specific major congenital malformation significantly associated with exposure to carbamazepine monotherapy (odds ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 5.3) compared with no antiepileptic drug), but the risk was smaller for carbamazepine than for valproic acid (0.2, 0.1 to 0.6). There was no evidence for an association with total anomalous pulmonary venous return (no cases with carbamazepine exposure), cleft lip (with or without palate) (0.2, 0.0 to 1.3), diaphragmatic hernia (0.9, 0.1 to 6.6), or hypospadias (0.7, 0.3 to 1.6) compared with no exposure to antiepileptic drugs. Further exploratory analysis suggested a higher risk of single ventricle and atrioventricular septal defect. CONCLUSION: Carbamazepine teratogenicity is relatively specific to spina bifida, though the risk is less than with valproic acid. Despite the large dataset, there was not enough power to detect moderate risks for some rare major congenital malformations.

Intravenous insulin treatment in acute stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Poststroke hyperglycemia has been associated with unfavorable outcome. Several trials investigated the use of intravenous insulin to control hyperglycemia in acute stroke. This meta-analysis summarizes all available evidence from randomized controlled trials in order to assess its efficacy and safety. METHODS: We searched PubMed until 15/02/2013 for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: 'intravenous insulin' or 'hyperglycemia', and 'stroke'. Eligible studies had to be randomized controlled trials of intravenous insulin in hyperglycemic patients with acute stroke. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis using the Peto fixed-effects method. The efficacy outcomes were mortality and favorable functional outcome. The safety outcomes were mortality, any hypoglycemia (symptomatic or asymptomatic), and symptomatic hypoglycemia. RESULTS: Among 462 potentially eligible articles, nine studies with 1491 patients were included in the meta-analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between patients who were treated with intravenous insulin and controls (odds ratio: 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 0.89-1.49). Similarly, the rate of favorable functional outcome was not statistically different (odds ratio: 1.01, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.26). The rates of any hypoglycemia (odds ratio: 8.19, 95% confidence interval: 5.60-11.98) and of symptomatic hypoglycemia (odds ratio: 6.15, 95% confidence interval: 1.88-20.15) were higher in patients treated with intravenous insulin. There was no heterogeneity across the included trials in any of the outcomes studied. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials does not support the use of intravenous insulin in hyperglycemic stroke patients to improve mortality or functional outcome. The risk of hypoglycemia is increased, however.

Effectiveness of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-management programs: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Disease-management programs may enhance the quality of care provided to patients with chronic diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effectiveness of COPD disease-management programs. METHODS: We conducted a computerized search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL) for studies evaluating interventions meeting our operational definition of disease management: patient education, 2 or more different intervention components, 2 or more health care professionals actively involved in patients' care, and intervention lasting 12 months or more. Programs conducted in hospital only and those targeting patients receiving palliative care were excluded. Two reviewers evaluated 12,749 titles and fully reviewed 139 articles; among these, data from 13 studies were included and extracted. Clinical outcomes considered were all-cause mortality, lung function, exercise capacity (walking distance), health-related quality of life, symptoms, COPD exacerbations, and health care use. A meta-analysis of exercise capacity and all-cause mortality was performed using random-effects models. RESULTS: The studies included were 9 randomized controlled trials, 1 controlled trial, and 3 uncontrolled before-after trials. Results indicate that the disease-management programs studied significantly improved exercise capacity (32.2 m, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-60.3), decreased risk of hospitalization, and moderately improved health-related quality of life. All-cause mortality did not differ between groups (pooled odds ratio 0.84, 95% CI, 0.54-1.40). CONCLUSION: COPD disease-management programs modestly improved exercise capacity, health-related quality of life, and hospital admissions, but not all-cause mortality. Future studies should explore the specific elements or characteristics of these programs that bring the greatest benefit.

Risk of prostate, breast and colorectal cancer after skin cancer diagnosis.

Ultraviolet radiation is the major cause of skin cancer, but promotes vitamin D synthesis, and vitamin D has been inversely related to the risk of several common cancers including prostate, breast and colorectum. We therefore computed the incidence of prostate, breast and colorectal cancer following skin cancer using the datasets of the Swiss cancer Registries of Vaud and Neuchâtel. Between 1974 and 2005, 6,985 histologically confirmed squamous cell skin cancers, 21,046 basal cell carcinomas and 3,346 cutaneous malignant melanomas were registered, and followed up to the end of 2005 for the occurrence of second primary cancer of the prostate, breast and colorectum. Overall, 680 prostate cancers were observed versus 568.3 expected (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.20; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.29), 440 breast cancers were observed versus 371.5 expected (SIR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.08-1.30) and 535 colorectal cancers were observed versus 464.6 expected (SIR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25). When basal cell, squamous cell and skin melanoma were considered separately, all the SIRs for prostate, breast and colorectal cancers were around or slightly above unity. Likewise, the results were consistent across strata of age at skin cancer diagnosis and location (head and neck versus others), and for male and female colorectal cancers. These findings, based on a population with a long tradition of systematic histologic examination of all surgically treated skin lesions, do not support the hypothesis that prostate, breast and colorectal cancer risk is decreased following skin cancer.