Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.

Public health value of fixed-dose combinations in hypertension.

It is well documented that reducing blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive individuals reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Despite this, many patients with hypertension remain untreated or inadequately treated, and fail to reach the recommended BP goals. Suboptimal BP control, whilst arising from multiple causes, is often due to poor patient compliance and/or persistence, and results in a significant health and economic burden on society. The use of fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of hypertension has the potential to increase patient compliance and persistence. When compared with antihypertensive monotherapies, FDCs may also offer equivalent or better efficacy, and the same or improved tolerability. As a result, FDCs have the potential to reduce both the CV event rates and the non-drug healthcare costs associated with hypertension. When FDCs are adopted for the treatment of hypertension, issues relating to copayment, formulary restrictions and therapeutic reference pricing must be addressed.

Natural genetic variation of root system architecture from Arabidopsis to Brachypodium: towards adaptive value.

Root system architecture is a trait that displays considerable plasticity because of its sensitivity to environmental stimuli. Nevertheless, to a significant degree it is genetically constrained as suggested by surveys of its natural genetic variation. A few regulators of root system architecture have been isolated as quantitative trait loci through the natural variation approach in the dicotyledon model, Arabidopsis. This provides proof of principle that allelic variation for root system architecture traits exists, is genetically tractable, and might be exploited for crop breeding. Beyond Arabidopsis, Brachypodium could serve as both a credible and experimentally accessible model for root system architecture variation in monocotyledons, as suggested by first glimpses of the different root morphologies of Brachypodium accessions. Whether a direct knowledge transfer gained from molecular model system studies will work in practice remains unclear however, because of a lack of comprehensive understanding of root system physiology in the native context. For instance, apart from a few notable exceptions, the adaptive value of genetic variation in root system modulators is unknown. Future studies should thus aim at comprehensive characterization of the role of genetic players in root system architecture variation by taking into account the native environmental conditions, in particular soil characteristics.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Validated prediction of clinical outcome in sarcomas and multiple types of cancer on the basis of a gene expression signature related to genome complexity.

Sarcomas are heterogeneous and aggressive mesenchymal tumors. Histological grading has so far been the best predictor for metastasis-free survival, but it has several limitations, such as moderate reproducibility and poor prognostic value for some histological types. To improve patient grading, we performed genomic and expression profiling in a training set of 183 sarcomas and established a prognostic gene expression signature, complexity index in sarcomas (CINSARC), composed of 67 genes related to mitosis and chromosome management. In a multivariate analysis, CINSARC predicts metastasis outcome in the training set and in an independent 127 sarcomas validation set. It is superior to the Fédération Francaise des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer grading system in determining metastatic outcome for sarcoma patients. Furthermore, it also predicts outcome for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), breast carcinomas and lymphomas. Application of the signature will permit more selective use of adjuvant therapies for people with sarcomas, leading to decreased iatrogenic morbidity and improved outcomes for such individuals.

Firm's network capability and innovation performance: evidences from China hi-tech industry

ABSTRACT : A firm's competitive advantage can arise from internal resources as well as from an interfirm network. -This dissertation investigates the competitive advantage of a firm involved in an innovation network by integrating strategic management theory and social network theory. It develops theory and provides empirical evidence that illustrates how a networked firm enables the network value and appropriates this value in an optimal way according to its strategic purpose. The four inter-related essays in this dissertation provide a framework that sheds light on the extraction of value from an innovation network by managing and designing the network in a proactive manner. The first essay reviews research in social network theory and knowledge transfer management, and identifies the crucial factors of innovation network configuration for a firm's learning performance or innovation output. The findings suggest that network structure, network relationship, and network position all impact on a firm's performance. Although the previous literature indicates that there are disagreements about the impact of dense or spare structure, as well as strong or weak ties, case evidence from Chinese software companies reveals that dense and strong connections with partners are positively associated with firms' performance. The second essay is a theoretical essay that illustrates the limitations of social network theory for explaining the source of network value and offers a new theoretical model that applies resource-based view to network environments. It suggests that network configurations, such as network structure, network relationship and network position, can be considered important network resources. In addition, this essay introduces the concept of network capability, and suggests that four types of network capabilities play an important role in unlocking the potential value of network resources and determining the distribution of network rents between partners. This essay also highlights the contingent effects of network capability on a firm's innovation output, and explains how the different impacts of network capability depend on a firm's strategic choices. This new theoretical model has been pre-tested with a case study of China software industry, which enhances the internal validity of this theory. The third essay addresses the questions of what impact network capability has on firm innovation performance and what are the antecedent factors of network capability. This essay employs a structural equation modelling methodology that uses a sample of 211 Chinese Hi-tech firms. It develops a measurement of network capability and reveals that networked firms deal with cooperation between, and coordination with partners on different levels according to their levels of network capability. The empirical results also suggests that IT maturity, the openness of culture, management system involved, and experience with network activities are antecedents of network capabilities. Furthermore, the two-group analysis of the role of international partner(s) shows that when there is a culture and norm gap between foreign partners, a firm must mobilize more resources and effort to improve its performance with respect to its innovation network. The fourth essay addresses the way in which network capabilities influence firm innovation performance. By using hierarchical multiple regression with data from Chinese Hi-tech firms, the findings suggest that there is a significant partial mediating effect of knowledge transfer on the relationships between network capabilities and innovation performance. The findings also reveal that the impacts of network capabilities divert with the environment and strategic decision the firm has made: exploration or exploitation. Network constructing capability provides a greater positive impact on and yields more contributions to innovation performance than does network operating capability in an exploration network. Network operating capability is more important than network constructing capability for innovative firms in an exploitation network. Therefore, these findings highlight that the firm can shape the innovation network proactively for better benefits, but when it does so, it should adjust its focus and change its efforts in accordance with its innovation purposes or strategic orientation.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What is the value of forensic science? : an overview of the effectiveness of forensic science in the Australian criminal justice system project

Forensic science is increasingly relied upon by law enforcement to assist in solvingcrime and gaining convictions, and by the judicial system in the adjudication ofspecific criminal cases. However, the value of forensic science relative to the workinvolved and the outcome of cases has yet to be established in the Australiancontext. Previous research in this area has mainly focused on the science andtechnology, rather than examining how people can use forensic services/science tothe best possible advantage to produce appropriate justice outcomes. This fiveyearproject entails an investigation into the effectiveness of forensic science inpolice investigations and court trials. It aims to identify when, where and howforensic science can add value to criminal investigations, court trials and justiceoutcomes while ensuring the efficient use of available resources initially in theVictorian and the ACT criminal justice systems and ultimately across Australiaand New Zealand. This paper provides an overview of the rationale and aims ofthe research project and discusses current work-in-progress.

Decompression scenarios in a new underground transportation system

BACKGROUND: The risks of a public exposure to a sudden decompression, until now, have been related to civil aviation and, at a lesser extent, to diving activities. However, engineers are currently planning the use of low pressure environments for underground transportation. This method has been proposed for the future Swissmetro, a high-speed underground train designed for inter-urban linking in Switzerland. HYPOTHESIS: The use of a low pressure environment in an underground public transportation system must be considered carefully regarding the decompression risks. Indeed, due to the enclosed environment, both decompression kinetics and safety measures may differ from aviation decompression cases. METHOD: A theoretical study of decompression risks has been conducted at an early stage of the Swissmetro project. A three-compartment theoretical model, based on the physics of fluids, has been implemented with flow processing software (Ithink 5.0). Simulations have been conducted in order to analyze "decompression scenarios" for a wide range of parameters, relevant in the context of the Swissmetro main study. RESULTS: Simulation results cover a wide range from slow to explosive decompression, depending on the simulation parameters. Not surprisingly, the leaking orifice area has a tremendous impact on barotraumatic effects, while the tunnel pressure may significantly affect both hypoxic and barotraumatic effects. Calculations have also shown that reducing the free space around the vehicle may mitigate significantly an accidental decompression. CONCLUSION: Numeric simulations are relevant to assess decompression risks in the future Swissmetro system. The decompression model has proven to be useful in assisting both design choices and safety management.

From pathogen defence to food allergy; The multiple facets of the mucosal immune system

Résumé destiné à un large public Le système immunitaire associé aux muqueuses gastro-intestinales doit être capable de protéger notre organisme contre l'invasion de pathogènes. Parallèlement, il doit identifier en Cant que tels, des composés inoffensifs comme la nourriture ou les milliards de bactéries qui résident dans notre intestin. Le travail présenté ici aborde ces deux aspects essentiels au bon fonctionnement de notre muqueuse intestinale. Dans une première partie, la protéine nommée pièce sécrétoire a été étudiée pour ses propriétés protectrices contre le pathogène viral rotavirus. Le rôle de la pièce sécrétoire est de transporter les anticorps que nous produisons vers la surface des muqueuses. En dehors de cette fonction bien connue, il se peut que cette protéine soit également capable de protéger notre organisme contre certains virus. L'hypothèse de travail était donc que la pièce sécrétoire se lie directement au virus, l'empêchant ainsi d'infecter des cellules épithéliales de l'intestin. En utilisant différentes techniques biochimiques, cette hypothèse s'est révélée fausse car aucune interaction entre la pièce sécrétoire et le virus n'a pu être observée, et logiquement, aucune protection n'a pu prendre place. En revanche, la pièce sécrétoire se lie à d'autres structures pathogéniques et permet ainsi de neutraliser leurs effets néfastes. La pièce sécrétoire participe donc activement à la protection de nos muqueuses, en plus de son rôle de transporteur. La deuxième partie de ce travail avait pour sujet les réactions inappropriées que le système immunitaire induit parfois contre un aliment, ou, autrement dit, les allergies alimentaires. Un modèle d'allergie alimentaire à donc été développé chez la souris et a permis de mesurer plusieurs symptômes et facteurs liés à l'allergie. Puis, ce modèle a été utilisé afin de tester les effets bénéfiques d'une bactérie lactique, dite probiotique, sur le développement de l'allergie. Il a été observé que, sous certaines circonstances, l'administration de la bactérie lactique protégeait entièrement les souris contre les réactions allergiques. L'effet bénéfique dépend donc du probiotique mais également d'autres facteurs encore inconnus â ce jour. Cette étude ouvre la voie sur la compréhension des mécanismes liés aux allergies alimentaires et sur l'impact que peuvent avoir les bactéries probiotiques sur cette maladie. Résumé Le système immunitaire associé aux muqueuses intestinales doit être capable de différencier les antigènes inoffensifs tels que 1a nourriture ou les bactéries commensales des microorganismes potentiellement dangereux. Cet aspect est essentiel pour le maintien de l'homéostase intestinale et fait l'objet du travail présenté ici. Dans un premier projet, les propriétés protectrices de la protéine appelée pièce sécrétoire (SC) ont été étudiées. SC est une protéine connue pour le transport des immunoglobulines à la surface des muqueuses. Cette protéine est fortement glycosylée paz des sucres complexes, ce qui nous a mené à postuler que SC puisse interagir avec le pathogène rotavirus. Cette hypothèse était soutenue par le fait que ce virus adhère aux cellules épithéliales par des résidus glycosylés. Des analyses biochimiques et biologiques ont démontré qu'aucune interaction entre SC et le virus ne prenait place, et que par conséquent SC n'offrait aucune protection contre ce pathogène. En revanche, SC interagit avec d'autres structures pathogéniques, comme la toxine A de Clostridium difficile, et la molécule d'adhésion intimine de la bactérie entéropathogène Escherichia coli. La liaison se fait par l'intermédiaire des sucres et confère ainsi une protection contre ces pathogènes. Ainsi, SC a été identifié comme agent neutralisant au niveau de l'intestin. La deuxième partie de ce travail abordait le sujet des allergies alimentaires, et avait pour but de tester les effets bénéfiques potentiels d'une bactérie probiotique, Lactobacillus paracasei NCC2461, contre les réactions allergiques. Un modèle marin d'allergie alimentaire a été mis au point, permettant de mesurer des immunoglobulines E, des symptômes allergiques, et la dégranulation de mastocytes. Lorsque le probiotique a été administré aux souris, celles-ci ont été complètement protégées des réactions allergiques dans une première expérience. Cependant, cette protection n'a pas été reproduite et suggère que des facteurs environnementaux encore inconnus sont critiques pour que le probiotique agisse positivement. Ce travail a permis de mettre en évidence la complexité de l'approche des traitements liés aux probiotiques et ouvre la voie sur la compréhension des mécanismes liés à l'allergie. Abstract The mucosal immune system associated to the gastrointestinal mucosa must efficiently distinguish between innocuous antigens, such as food proteins and commensal bacteria and potentially infectious agents. The work presented here deals with these two essential aspects guaranteeing intestinal homeostasis. In the first part of this work, the protective properties of secretory component (SC) toward the pathogen rotavirus were investigated. SC, which allows the transport of polymeric immunoglobulins (Ig) to mucosal surfaces, is highly glycosylated with complex glycan structures. The abundance and the nature of these carbohydrates led us to speculate that SC might interact with rotavirus, which is known to bind target cells with glycan receptors. Using various biological and biochemical techniques, we demonstrated that SC did not interact with rotaviruses, nor protected epithelial cells from infection. However, SC was shown to bind to Clostridium difficile toxin A and to the enteropathogenic Echerischia coli adhesion molecule intimin in a glycan-dependent fashion. These interactions allow in vitro protection of epithelial cells using physiological concentrations of SC. These data identify SC as a microbial scavenger at mucosal surfaces, and in the context of secretory IgA, further enhance the neutralising properties of the complex. The second project was inscribed in the domain of food allergy and aimed to test the modulatory functions of a probiotic strain of Lactobacillus paracasei toward allergic reactions. A model of food-mediated allergy was developed in the mouse using mucosal sensitisation. Several parameters associated to allergy were quantified after allergen challenge, and included allergen-specific IgE, allergic signs like diarrhea and temperature drop, and degranulation of mast cells. Administration of the probiotic strain was shown to completely protect mice from allergic reactions. However, these data were not reproduced, suggesting that unknown environmental factors are required so that protection mediated by the probiotic strain occurs. This study paves the way to the understanding of the mechanisms associated to allergy, and highlights the tremendous complexity that probiotic treatments will have to face.