Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Monitoring of noninvasive ventilation by built-in software of home bilevel ventilators: a bench study.

BACKGROUND: Current bilevel positive-pressure ventilators for home noninvasive ventilation (NIV) provide physicians with software that records items important for patient monitoring, such as compliance, tidal volume (Vt), and leaks. However, to our knowledge, the validity of this information has not yet been independently assessed. METHODS: Testing was done for seven home ventilators on a bench model adapted to simulate NIV and generate unintentional leaks (ie, other than of the mask exhalation valve). Five levels of leaks were simulated using a computer-driven solenoid valve (0-60 L/min) at different levels of inspiratory pressure (15 and 25 cm H(2)O) and at a fixed expiratory pressure (5 cm H(2)O), for a total of 10 conditions. Bench data were compared with results retrieved from ventilator software for leaks and Vt. RESULTS: For assessing leaks, three of the devices tested were highly reliable, with a small bias (0.3-0.9 L/min), narrow limits of agreement (LA), and high correlations (R(2), 0.993-0.997) when comparing ventilator software and bench results; conversely, for four ventilators, bias ranged from -6.0 L/min to -25.9 L/min, exceeding -10 L/min for two devices, with wide LA and lower correlations (R(2), 0.70-0.98). Bias for leaks increased markedly with the importance of leaks in three devices. Vt was underestimated by all devices, and bias (range, 66-236 mL) increased with higher insufflation pressures. Only two devices had a bias < 100 mL, with all testing conditions considered. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians monitoring patients who use home ventilation must be aware of differences in the estimation of leaks and Vt by ventilator software. Also, leaks are reported in different ways according to the device used.

Automatic Decision-Oriented Mapping of Pollution Data

The paper deals with the development and application of the methodology for automatic mapping of pollution/contamination data. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is considered in detail and is proposed as an efficient tool to solve this problem. The automatic tuning of isotropic and an anisotropic GRNN model using cross-validation procedure is presented. Results are compared with k-nearest-neighbours interpolation algorithm using independent validation data set. Quality of mapping is controlled by the analysis of raw data and the residuals using variography. Maps of probabilities of exceeding a given decision level and ?thick? isoline visualization of the uncertainties are presented as examples of decision-oriented mapping. Real case study is based on mapping of radioactively contaminated territories.

Assessing Patient's belief on HIV testing before elective surgery: place for improvements in Switzerland

Background and aim of the study: In Switzerland no HIV test is performed without the patient's consent based on a Voluntary Counseling and Testing policy (VCT). We hypothesized that a substantial proportion of patients going through an elective surgery falsely believed that an HIV test was performed on a routine basis and that the lack of transmission of result was interpreted as being HIV negative. Material and method: All patients with elective orthopedic surgery during 2007 were contacted by phone in 2008. A structured questionnaire assessed their belief about routine preoperative blood analysis (glycemia, coagulation capacity, HIV serology and cholesterol) as well as result awareness and interpretation. Variables included age and gender. Analysis were conducted using the software JMP 6.0.3. Results: 1123 patients were included. 130 (12%) were excluded (i.e. unreachable, unable to communicate on the phone, not operated). 993 completed the survey (89%). Median age was 51 (16-79). 50% were female. 376 (38%) patients thought they had an HIV test performed before surgery but none of them had one. 298 (79%) interpreted the absence of result as a negative HIV test. A predictive factor to believe an HIV test had been done was an age below 50 years old (45% vs 33% for 16-49 years old and 50-79 years old respectively, p <0.001). No difference was observed between genders. Conclusion: In Switzerland, nearly 40% of the patients falsely thought an HIV test had been performed on a routine basis before surgery and were erroneously reassured about their HIV status. These results should either improve the information given to the patient regarding preoperative exams, or motivate public health policy to consider HIV opt-out screening, as patients are already expecting it.

International STakeholder NETwork (ISTNET): creating a developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) testing road map for regulatory purposes.

A major problem in developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) risk assessment is the lack of toxicological hazard information for most compounds. Therefore, new approaches are being considered to provide adequate experimental data that allow regulatory decisions. This process requires a matching of regulatory needs on the one hand and the opportunities provided by new test systems and methods on the other hand. Alignment of academically and industrially driven assay development with regulatory needs in the field of DNT is a core mission of the International STakeholder NETwork (ISTNET) in DNT testing. The first meeting of ISTNET was held in Zurich on 23-24 January 2014 in order to explore the concept of adverse outcome pathway (AOP) to practical DNT testing. AOPs were considered promising tools to promote test systems development according to regulatory needs. Moreover, the AOP concept was identified as an important guiding principle to assemble predictive integrated testing strategies (ITSs) for DNT. The recommendations on a road map towards AOP-based DNT testing is considered a stepwise approach, operating initially with incomplete AOPs for compound grouping, and focussing on key events of neurodevelopment. Next steps to be considered in follow-up activities are the use of case studies to further apply the AOP concept in regulatory DNT testing, making use of AOP intersections (common key events) for economic development of screening assays, and addressing the transition from qualitative descriptions to quantitative network modelling.