Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Enteral nutrition in critically ill patients with severe hemodynamic failure after cardiopulmonary bypass.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study was designed to investigate and quantify nutritional support, and particularly enteral nutrition (EN), in critically ill patients with severe hemodynamic failure. METHODS: Prospective, descriptive study in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in a university teaching hospital: patients aged 67+/-13 yrs (mean+/-SD) admitted after cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation, staying 5 days in the ICU with acute cardiovascular failure. Severity of disease was assessed with SAPS II, and SOFA scores. Variables were energy delivery and balance, nutrition route, vasopressor doses, and infectious complications. Artificial feeding delivered according to ICU protocol. EN was considered from day 2-3. Energy target was set 25 kcal/kg/day to be reached stepwise over 5 days. RESULTS: Seventy out of 1114 consecutive patients were studied, aged 67+/-17 years, and staying 10+/-7 days in the ICU. Median SAPS II was 43. Nine patients died (13%). All patients had circulatory failure: 18 patients required intra-aortic balloon-pump support (IABP). Norepinephrine was required in 58 patients (83%). Forty patients required artificial nutrition. Energy delivery was very variable. There was no abdominal complication related to EN. As a mean, 1360+/-620 kcal/kg/day could be delivered enterally during the first 2 weeks, corresponding to 70+/-35% of energy target. Enteral nutrient delivery was negatively influenced by increasing dopamine and norepinephrine doses, but not by the use of IABP. CONCLUSION: EN is possible in the majority of patients with severe hemodynamic failure, but usually results in hypocaloric feeding. EN should be considered in patients with careful abdominal and energy monitoring.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine balances during continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute renal failure is a serious complication in critically ill patients and frequently requires renal replacement therapy, which alters trace element and vitamin metabolism. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to study trace element balances during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in intensive care patients. DESIGN: In a prospective randomized crossover trial, patients with acute renal failure received CRRT with either sodium bicarbonate (Bic) or sodium lactate (Lac) as a buffering agent over 2 consecutive 24-h periods. Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine were measured with highly sensitive analytic methods in plasma, replacement solutions, and effluent during 8-h periods. Balances were calculated as the difference between fluids administered and effluent losses and were compared with the recommended intakes (RI) from parenteral nutrition. RESULTS: Nineteen sessions were conducted in 11 patients aged 65 +/- 10 y. Baseline plasma concentrations of copper were normal, whereas those of selenium and zinc were below reference ranges; glutathione peroxidase was in the lower range of normal. The replacement solutions contained no detectable copper, 0.01 micromol Se/L (Bic and Lac), and 1.42 (Bic) and 0.85 (Lac) micromol Zn/L. Micronutrients were detectable in all effluents, and losses were stable in each patient; no significant differences were found between the Bic and Lac groups. The 24-h balances were negative for selenium (-0.97 micromol, or 2 times the daily RI), copper (-6.54 micromol, or 0.3 times the daily RI), and thiamine (-4.12 mg, or 1.5 times the RI) and modestly positive for zinc (20.7 micromol, or 0.2 times the RI). CONCLUSIONS: CRRT results in significant losses and negative balances of selenium, copper, and thiamine, which contribute to low plasma concentrations. Prolonged CRRT is likely to result in selenium and thiamine depletion despite supplementation at recommended amounts.

Does falls efficacy predict gait performance in high-functioning older people?

Introduction: Falls efficacy, defined as confidence in performing activities without falling, is a measure of fear of falling associated with gait impairment, falls and functional decline in frail older people. This relationship has not been well studied in high-functioning older people. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between falls efficacy and gait performance in a cohort of high-functioning older people. Methods: Subjects (N = 864) were a subsample of communitydwelling older people aged 65 to 70 years, enrolled in the "Lc65+" cohort, who completed gait assessment at baseline. Data were collected on demographics, functional, cognitive, affective, and health status. Falls efficacy was assessed using the Falls Efficacy Scale- International (FES-I) that measures confidence in performing 16 activities of daily life (ADL) without falling (score from 16 to 64, higher score indicates lower confidence). Gait parameters were measured over a 20 m walk at preferred gait speed using Physilog, an ambulatory gait monitoring system. Results: Participants (mean age 68.0 ± 1.4 years, 55.0% women) had excellent physical (92.2% independent in basic ADL, mean gait speed 1.13 ± 0.16 m/sec) and cognitive (98.0% with MMSE 024) performance. Nevertheless, 22.1% reported depressive symptoms and 16.1% one or more fall in the previous year. Mean FES-I score was 18.8 ± 4.1. Falls efficacy was associated with gait speed (Spearman rho -0.23, P <.001) and gait variability (Spearman rho 0.10, P = .006), measured by the coefficient of variation of stride velocity. These associations remained in multivariate analysis for both gait speed (adj [beta] coeff: -0.008, 95%CI -0.005 to -0.010, P <.001) and gait variability (adj [beta] coeff 0.024, 95%CI 0.003 to 0.045, P = .023) independent of gender, falls, functional, affective, cognitive, and frailty (Fried's criteria) status. On average, compared to subjects with poor confidence in performing one ADL without falling, those with full confidence had a 0.02 m/sec (2%) faster gait speed and a 2% decrease in gait variability. Conclusion: Even in high-functioning older people, poor falls efficacy is associated with reduced gait speed and stability, independent of health, functional, and frailty status. The direction of this relationship needs to be investigated prospectively to determine causality and design interventions to improve gait performance, reduce fall risk, and prevent functional decline.

Metabolic effects of parenteral nutrition enriched with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in critically ill patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS: n-3 fatty acids are expected to downregulate the inflammatory responses, and hence may decrease insulin resistance. On the other hand, n-3 fatty acid supplementation has been reported to increase glycemia in type 2 diabetes. We therefore assessed the effect of n-3 fatty acids delivered with parenteral nutrition on glucose metabolism in surgical intensive care patients. METHODS: Twenty-four surgical intensive care patients were randomized to receive parenteral nutrition providing 1.25 times their fasting energy expenditure, with 0.25 g of either an n-3 fatty acid enriched-or a soy bean-lipid emulsion. Energy metabolism, glucose production, gluconeogenesis and hepatic de novo lipogenesis were evaluated after 4 days. RESULTS: Total energy expenditure was significantly lower in patients receiving n-3 fatty acids (0.015+/-0.001 vs. 0.019+/-0.001 kcal/kg/min with soy bean lipids (P<0.05)). Glucose oxidation, lipid oxidation, glucose production, gluconeogenesis, hepatic de novo lipogenesis, plasma glucose, insulin and glucagon concentrations did not differ (all P>0.05) in the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: n-3 fatty acids were well tolerated in this group of severely ill patients. They decreased total energy expenditure without adverse metabolic effects.

Analyzing complex rock slope deformation at Stampa, western Norway, by integrating geomorphology, kinematics and numerical modeling

The unstable rock slope, Stampa, above the village of Flåm, Norway, shows signs of both active and postglacial gravitational deformation over an area of 11 km2. Detailed structural field mapping, annual differential Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys, as well as geomorphic analysis of high-resolution digital elevation models based on airborne and terrestrial laser scanning indicate that slope deformation is complex and spatially variable. Numerical modeling was used to investigate the influence of former rockslide activity and to better understand the failure mechanism. Field observations, kinematic analysis and numerical modeling indicate a strong structural control of the unstable area. Based on the integration of the above analyses, we propose that the failure mechanism is dominated by (1) a toppling component, (2) subsiding bilinear wedge failure and (3) planar sliding along the foliation at the toe of the unstable slope. Using differential GNSS, 18 points were measured annually over a period of up to 6 years. Two of these points have an average yearly movement of around 10 mm/year. They are located at the frontal cliff on almost completely detached blocks with volumes smaller than 300,000 m3. Large fractures indicate deep-seated gravitational deformation of volumes reaching several 100 million m3, but the movement rates in these areas are below 2 mm/year. Two different lobes of prehistoric rock slope failures were dated with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. While the northern lobe gave an average age of 4,300 years BP, the southern one resulted in two different ages (2,400 and 12,000 years BP), which represent most likely multiple rockfall events. This reflects the currently observable deformation style with unstable blocks in the northern part in between Joasete and Furekamben and no distinct blocks but a high rockfall activity around Ramnanosi in the south. With a relative susceptibility analysis it is concluded that small collapses of blocks along the frontal cliff will be more frequent. Larger collapses of free-standing blocks along the cliff with volumes > 100,000 m3, thus large enough to reach the fjord, cannot be ruled out. A larger collapse involving several million m3 is presently considered of very low likelihood.

Structural characterization of Turtle Mountain anticline (Alberta, Canada) and impact on rock slope failure

his paper proposes a structural investigation of the Turtle Mountain anticline (Alberta, Canada) to better understand the role of the different tectonic features on the development of both local and large scale rock slope instabilities occurring in Turtle Mountain. The study area is investigated by combining remote methods with detailed field surveys. In particular, the benefit of Terrestrial Laser Scanning for ductile and brittle tectonic structure interpretations is illustrated. The proposed tectonic interpretation allows the characterization of the fracturing pattern, the fold geometry and the role of these tectonic features in rock slope instability development. Ten discontinuity sets are identified in the study area, their local variations permitting the differentiation of the study zone into 20 homogenous structural domains. The anticline is described as an eastern verging fold that displays considerable geometry differences along its axis and developed by both flexural slip and tangential longitudinal strain folding mechanisms. Moreover, the origins of the discontinuity sets are determined according to the tectonic phases affecting the region (pre-folding, folding, post-folding). The localization and interpretation of kinematics of the different instabilities revealed the importance of considering the discrete brittle planes of weakness, which largely control the kinematic release of the local instabilities, and also the rock mass damage induced by large tectonic structures (fold hinge, thrust).

Should Hyperglycemia in Critically Ill Children Be Treated?

Introduction: In adults, strict control of hyperglycemia reduces mortality and morbidity. There is controversy in medical patients and neurological patients who can suffer of neuroglucopenia. Objectives: To determine prevalence and prognostic significance of hyperglycemia among critically ill non-diabetic children. To evaluate which patients will best benefit of insulin treatment. Methods: Retrospective study using blood glucose levels (GLUC: 9015 values, 923 patients) in our PICU from 01.2003 to 12.2005. 11 Patients with DKA were excluded. Overall PICU mortality was 3.7%. Hyperglycemia was defined at 6.1 mmol/L and different cutoff values (6.1, 8.3 and 11.1 mmol/l) were analyzed for glycemia at admission (GLUC). Sustained hyperglycemia was evaluated with the area under the curve normalized per hour (48h-AUC/h) for the first 48 h. The prevalence of hypo (_3mmol/L), hyperglycemia and PICU death were analyzed. Results: Trough the use of different cutoff values (_6.1, _8.3 and _11.1 mmol/l), prevalence of hyperglycemia at admission was 31.8 %, 16.8% and 10.3%; associated mortality was 2.8%, 4.0% and 15.2% respectively, significantly correlated to cutoff values (r_0.95, p_0.05). Prevalence of hypoglycemia at admission was low (0.9% with no death). 48h-AUC(mmol/L/h) was computed in 747 children (30 deaths). Prevalence of hyperglycemic 48h-AUC values was 47.5%, 17.3% and 4.0% with a respective mortality of 3.4%, 6.3% and 20.7% (r_0.97, p_0.03). For those with high GLUC and high 48h-AUC (_ 11.1 mmol/L) mortality was high (31.5%), but it decrease dramatically to 5.5% when 48h-AUC decrease spontaneously to values _8.3 mmol/L/h. Finally, when patients with severe neurological lesions (GCS_3, n_22) where excluded, increased mortality was observed only for GLUC (n_ 86) and 48h-AUC (n_26) higher than 11.1 mmol/L. Conclusions: Hyperglycemia at admission and even more sustained hyperglycemia (AUC) are highly correlated to mortality in PICU. But children who will have benefit of insulin therapy represent only 3% of our population, much lower than for adults.

Validation of an adapted falls efficacy scale in older rehabilitation patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the psychometric properties of an adapted version of the Falls Efficacy Scale (FES) in older rehabilitation patients. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Postacute rehabilitation facility in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy elderly persons aged 65 years and older receiving postacute, inpatient rehabilitation. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: FES questions asked about subject's confidence (range, 0 [none]-10 [full]) in performing 12 activities of daily living (ADLs) without falling. Construct validity was assessed using correlation with measures of physical (basic ADLs [BADLs]), cognitive (Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]), affective (15-item Geriatric Depression Scale [GDS]), and mobility (Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment [POMA]) performance. Predictive validity was assessed using the length of rehabilitation stay as the outcome. To determine test-retest reliability, FES administration was repeated in a random subsample (n=20) within 72 hours. RESULTS: FES scores ranged from 10 to 120 (mean, 88.7+/-26.5). Internal consistency was optimal (Cronbach alpha=.90), and item-to-total correlations were all significant, ranging from .56 (toilet use) to .82 (reaching into closets). Test-retest reliability was high (intraclass correlation coefficient, .97; 95% confidence interval, .95-.99; P<.001). Subjects reporting a fall in the previous year had lower FES scores than nonfallers (85.0+/-25.2 vs 94.4+/-27.9, P=.054). The FES correlated with POMA (Spearman rho=.40, P<.001), MMSE (rho=.37, P=.001), BADL (rho=.43, P<.001), and GDS (rho=-.53, P<.001) scores. These relationships remained significant in multivariable analysis for BADLs and GDS, confirming FES construct validity. There was a significant inverse relationship between FES score and the length of rehabilitation stay, independent of sociodemographic, functional, cognitive, and fall status. CONCLUSIONS: This adapted FES is reliable and valid in older patients undergoing postacute rehabilitation. The independent association between poor falls efficacy and increased length of stay has not been previously described and needs further investigations.

Long-term transcutaneous monitoring of oxygen tension and carbon dioxide at 42 degrees C in critically ill neonates: improved performance of the tcpo2 monitor with topical metabolic inhibition.

Whereas during the last few years handling of the transcutaneous PO2 (tcPO2) and PCO2 (tcPCO2) sensor has been simplified, the high electrode temperature and the short application time remain major drawbacks. In order to determine whether the application of a topical metabolic inhibitor allows reliable measurement at a sensor temperature of 42 degrees C for a period of up to 12 h, we performed a prospective, open, nonrandomized study in a sequential sample of 20 critically ill neonates. A total of 120 comparisons (six repeated measurements per patient) between arterial and transcutaneous values were obtained. Transcutaneous values were measured with a control sensor at 44 degrees C (conventional contact medium, average application time 3 h) and a test sensor at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution, average application time 8 h). Comparison of tcPO2 and PaO2 at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution) showed a mean difference of +0.16 kPa (range +1.60 to -2.00 kPa), limits of agreement +1.88 and -1.56 kPa. Comparison of tcPO2 and PaO2 at 44 degrees C (control sensor) revealed a mean difference of +0.02 kPa (range +2.60 to -1.90 kPa), limits of agreement +2.12 and -2.08 kPa. Comparison of tcPCO2 and PaCO2 at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution) showed a mean difference of +0.91 (range +2.30 to +0.10 kPa), limits of agreement +2.24 and -0.42 kPa. Comparison of tcPCO2 and PaCO2 at 44 degrees C (control sensor) revealed a mean difference of +0.63 kPa (range 1.50 to -0.30 kPa), limits of agreement +1.73 and -0.47 kPa. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the use of an Eugenol solution allows reliable measurement of tcPO2 at a heating temperature of 42 degrees C; the application time can be prolongued up to a maximum of 12 h without aggravating the skin lesions. The performance of the tcPCO2 monitor was slightly worse at 42 degrees C than at 44 degrees C suggesting that for the Eugenol solution the metabolic offset should be corrected.