Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Violence et non-violence, modèle et contre-modèle dans le contexte de l'Inde moderne.

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) La violence dans nos sociétés ne semble pas diminuer; bien au contraire, elle resurgit toujours avec des moyens et des stratagèmes de plus en plus perfectionnés, provoquant la destruction de la vie humaine et mettant en danger son épanouissement. Avec la rationalisation des activités dans de nombreux secteurs de la vie, la violence et ses moyens se sont rationalisés aussi, pour mieux servir le pouvoir et la force. Les armes sous toutes leurs formes deviennent ainsi une marchandise pour soutenir les économies des pays. Les religions provoquent-elles vraiment la violence? Si elles n'affichent pas ouvertement une telle intention, peuvent-elles induire des actes violents? Dans l'éventualité où les religions ne sont pas vraiment à l'origine de violences, on peut cependant se demander si, par elles-mêmes, elles peuvent contribuer à une diminution de la violence dans les sociétés et créer la paix. Quelques spécialistes universitaires, enseignant et chercheurs, se posent ces questions et tentent d'y apporter une réponse.

Pathological science.

Review of the book : The undergrowth of science: delusion, self-deception and human frailty, by W. Gratzer, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach.

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensicscience denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstratedits potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite thenumerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensicframework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its ownstrategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without aclear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose amethodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance ofconsidering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particularforensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtfuland relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enablesa better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in orderto obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratorycomparisons.

Une pensée économique russe?: présentation, traduction et annotation de l'article "Science Economique" (1899) de Mikhail Ivanovich Tugan-Baranovskij

L'économiste russe Tugan-Baranovskij (1865-1919) a publié en 1899 une notice sur le développement de la « science économique russe » pour la première encyclopédie universelle russe, le Brockhaus-Efron. Sous la forme d'un catalogue chronologique des économistes russes et de leurs ouvrages tout au long du XIXe siècle, le récit de Tugan-Baranovskij représente une des premières tentatives d'écrire une histoire de la pensée économique russe. L'intérêt du texte se manifeste lorsqu'on s'interroge sur l'existence d'une telle science « nationale » de l'économie politique. Nous présentons ici en traduction française ce récit jamais encore traduit du russe, et nous l'accompagnons de notes sur les auteurs et les ouvrages qui y sont signalés.