There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

Self perceptions as predictors for return to work 2 years after rehabilitation in orthopedic trauma inpatients.

Purpose This study aimed to identify self-perception variables which may predict return to work (RTW) in orthopedic trauma patients 2 years after rehabilitation. Methods A prospective cohort investigated 1,207 orthopedic trauma inpatients, hospitalised in rehabilitation, clinics at admission, discharge, and 2 years after discharge. Information on potential predictors was obtained from self administered questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression models were applied. Results In the final model, a higher likelihood of RTW was predicted by: better general health and lower pain at admission; health and pain improvements during hospitalisation; lower impact of event (IES-R) avoidance behaviour score; higher IES-R hyperarousal score, higher SF-36 mental score and low perceived severity of the injury. Conclusion RTW is not only predicted by perceived health, pain and severity of the accident at the beginning of a rehabilitation program, but also by the changes in pain and health perceptions observed during hospitalisation.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-part 2

Introduction.- The model presented in part I (19 predictors) had good predictive values for non-return to work 2 years after vocational rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma. However, the number of predictors is high for the detection of patients at risk in a clinic. For example, the INTERMED for itself consists of 20 questions and needs 20 minutes to be filled in. For this reason, the aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of different models for the prediction of non-return to work.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic, sport or leisure related injury. Two years after discharge, 1502 patients returned a questionnaire regarding return to work. We compared the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC) between different models: INTERMED total score, the 4 partial INTERMED scores, the items of the most predictive partial score; with or without confounders.Results.- The ROC for the total score of the INTERMED plus the five confounders of the of the part one (qualified work, speaking French, lesion of upper extremity, education and age) was 0.72. The sole partial INTERMED score to predict return to work was the social sub score. The ROC for the five items of the latter sub score of the INTERMED was 0.69. The ROC for the five items of the social subscale of the INTERMED combined with five predictors was 0.73. This was significantly better than the use of only the five items from INTERMED alone (delta 0.034; 95% CI 0.017 to .050). The model presented in part I (INTERMED total score plus 18 predictors) was not significantly better than the five items INTERMED social score plus five confounders.Discussion.- The use of a model with ten variables (INTERMED social five items plus five confounders) has good predictive value to detect patients not returning to work after vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The parsimony of this model facilitates its use in a clinic for the detection of patients at risk.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

Predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anesthesia

Abstract Background: To evaluate the predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anaesthesia. Methods: This is a retrospective review of all ISBCS performed at Kantonsspital Winterthur, Switzerland, between April 2000 and September 2013. The case notes of 250 patients were reviewed. Patients having full refraction reported (110 patients/220 eyes) were included. 210 (95 %) eyes had a straight forward phacoemulsification with posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation, seven eyes had a planned extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE); three eyes had an intracapsular cataract extraction. Results: Both eyes of 110 patients (64 women, 46 men) with a mean age of 79.0 years, standard deviation (SD) ±11.4 (range 26 to 97 years) were included. Median preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 0.5 LogMAR in the first eye, the interquartile range (IQR) was [0.4, 1.2]; 0.7 LogMAR in the second eye with IQR [0.4, 1.8]. At one month, the median BCVA was 0.2 LogMAR, IQR [0.1, 0.3] in the first eye, median BCVA was 0.1 LogMAR and IQR [0.0, 0.5] in the second eye. There were 3 eyes (3 %) that lost 3 lines or more in BCVA at one month (control vs. pre-operatively). In all three cases, poor visual acuity had been recorded pre-operatively (>1 LogMAR). Achieved refraction was within ±1.0 D of the target in 83 % of eyes. There were only 5 % (n = 6) of cases where if delayed sequential bilateral extraction had been performed could potentially intraocular lens (IOL) choice have been adjusted, in four of these cases, target refraction was within ±1.0 D in the second eye. Conclusions: ISBCS performed under general anaesthesia achieves target refraction in 83 % of eyes after consideration of complications, ocular co-morbidities and systemic restrictions. In the majority of cases where IOL power calculation could be considered, the achieved refraction of the second surgical eye was within ±1.0 D of intended refraction. This undermines the utility of IOL power adjustments in the second surgical eye. Keywords: Cataract, Cataract surgery, Immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery