Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

A stable and 40Ar/39Ar isotope study of a major thrust in the Helvetic nappes (Swiss Alps) - Evidence for fluid-flow and constraints on nappe kinematics

Stable isotope and Ar-40/Ar-39 measurements,were made on samples associated with a major tectonic discontinuity in the Helvetic Alps, the basal thrust of the Diablerets nappe (external zone of the Alpine Belt) in order to determine both the importance of fluids in this thrust zone and the timing of thrusting. A systematic decrease in the delta(18)O values (up to 6 parts per thousand) of calcite, quartz, and white mica exists within a 10- to 70-m-wide zone over a distance of 37 km along the thrust, and they become more pronounced toward the root of the nappe. A similar decrease in the delta(13)C values of calcite is observed only in the deepest sections (up to 3 parts per thousand). The delta D-SMOW (SMOW = standard mean ocean water) values of white mica are -54 parts per thousand +/- 8 parts per thousand (n = 22) and are independent of the distance from the thrust. These variations are interpreted to reflect syntectonic solution reprecipitation during fluid passage along the thrust. The calculated delta(18)O and delta D values (versus SMOW) for the fluid in equilibrium with the analyzed minerals is 12 parts per thousand to 16 parts per thousand and -30 parts per thousand to +5 parts per thousand, respectively, for assumed temperatures of 250 to 450 degrees C. The isotopic and structural data are consistent with fluids derived from the deep-seated roots of the Helvetic nappes where large volumes of Mesozoic sediments were metamorphosed to the amphibolite facies, It is suggested that connate and metamorphic waters, overpressured by rapid tectonic burial in a subductive system escaped by upward infiltration along moderately dipping pathways until they reached the main shear zone at the base of the moving pile, where they were channeled toward the surface, This model also explains the mechanism by which large amounts of fluid were removed from the Mesozoic sediments during Alpine metamorphism. White mica Ar-49/Ar-39 ages vary from 27 Ma far from the Diablerets thrust to 15 Ma along the thrust. An older component is observed in micas far from the thrust, interpreted as a detrital signature, and indicates that regional metamorphic temperatures were less than about 350 degrees C. The;plateau and near plateau ages nearest the thrust are consistent with either neocrystallization of white mica or argon loss by recrystallization during thrusting, which may have been enhanced in the zones of highest fluid flow. The 15 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 age plateau measured on white mica sampled exactly on the thrust surface dates the end of both fluid flow and tectonic transport.

Real-time imaging of regional myocardial function using fast-SENC.

A technique for fast imaging of regional myocardial function using a spiral acquisition in combination with strain-encoded (SENC) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presented in this paper. This technique, which is termed fast-SENC, enables scan durations as short as a single heartbeat. A reduced field of view (FOV) without foldover artifacts was achieved by localized SENC, which selectively excited the region around the heart. The two images required for SENC imaging (low- and high-tuning) were acquired in an interleaved fashion throughout the cardiac cycle to further shorten the scan time. Regional circumferential contraction and longitudinal shortening of both the left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV) were examined in long- and short-axis views, respectively. The in vivo results obtained from five human subjects and five infarcted dogs are presented. The results of the fast-SENC technique in a single heartbeat acquisition were comparable to those obtained by conventional SENC in a long acquisition time. Therefore, fast-SENC may prove useful for imaging during stress or arrhythmia.

Chemical and carbon isotopic evolution of hydrocarbons during prograde metamorphism from 100°C to 550°C: Case study in the Liassic black shale formation of Central Swiss Alps

Hydrocarbon distributions and stable isotope ratios of carbonates (delta(13)C(car), delta(18)O(car)), kerogen (delta(13)C(ker)), extractable organic matter (delta(13)C(EOM)) and individual hydrocarbons of Liassic black shale samples from a prograde metamorphic sequence in the Swiss Alps were used to identify the major organic reactions with increasing metamorphic grade. The studied samples range from the diagenetic zone (< 100 degrees C) to amphibolite facies (similar to 550 degrees C). The samples within the diagenetic zones (< 100 and 150 degrees C) are characterized by the dominance of C-< 20 n-alkanes, suggesting an origin related with marine and/or bacterial inputs. The metamorphic samples (200 to 550 degrees C) have distributions significantly dominated by C-12 and C-13 n-alkanes, C-14, C-16 and C-18 n-alkylcyclopentanes and to a lesser extend C-15, C-17 and C-21 n-alkylcyclohexanes. The progressive C-13-enrichment (up to 3.9 parts per thousand) with metamorphism of the C-> 17 n-alkanes suggests the occurrence of cracking reactions of high molecular weight compounds. The isotopically heavier (up to 5.6 parts per thousand) C-< 17 n-alkanes in metamorphic samples are likely originated by thermal degradation of long-chain homologous with preferential release of isotopically light C-1 and C-2 radicals. The dominance of specific even C-number n-alkylcyclopentanes suggests an origin related to direct cyclization mechanism (without decarboxylation step) of algal or bacterial fatty acids occurring in reducing aqueous metamorphic fluid conditions. The regular increase of the concentrations of n-alkylcycloalkanes vs. C-> 13 n-alkanes with metamorphism suggests progressive thermal release of kerogen-linked fatty acid precursors and degradation of n-alkanes. Changes of the steroid and terpenoid distributions are clearly related to increasing metamorphic temperatures. The absence of 18 alpha(H)-22,29,30-trisnorneohopane (Ts), the occurrence of 17 beta(H)-trisnorhopane, 17 beta(H), 21 alpha(H)-hopanes in the C-29 to C-31 range and 5 alpha(H),14 alpha(H),17 alpha(H)-20R C-27, C-29 steranes in the low diagenetic samples (< 100 degrees C) are characteristic of immature bitumens. The higher thermal stress within the upper diagenetic zone (150 degrees C) is marked by the presence of Ts, the disappearance of 17 beta(H)-trisnorhopane and thermodynamic equilibrium of the 22S/(22S + 22R) homohopane ratios. The increase of the alpha alpha alpha-sterane 20S/(20S + 20R) and 20R beta beta/(beta beta + alpha alpha) ratios (from 0.0 to 0.55 and from 0.0 to 0.40, respectively) in the upper diagenetic zone indicates the occurrence of isomerization reactions already at < 150 degrees C. However, the isomerization at C-20 (R -> S) reaches thermodynamic equilibrium values already at the upper diagenesis (similar to 150 degrees C) whereas the epimerisation at C-14 and C-17 (alpha alpha ->beta beta) arrives to constant values in the lower anchizone (similar to 200 degrees C). The ratios Ts vs. 17 alpha(H)-22,29,30-trisnorneohopane [(Ts/(Ts + Tm)] and 18 alpha(H)-30-norneohopane (C29Ts) vs. 17 alpha(H),21 beta(H)-30-norhopane [C29Ts/(C29Ts + C-29)] increase until the medium anchizone (200 to 250 degrees C) from 0.0 to 0.96 and from 0.0 to 0.44, respectively. An opposite trend owards lower values is observed in the higher metamorphic samples. The occurrence of specific hydrocarbons (e.g., n-alkylcyclopentanes, cadalene, hydrogenated aromatic compounds) in metamorphic samples points to kerogen degradation reactions most probably occurring in the presence of water and under reducing conditions. The changes of hydrocarbon distributions and carbon isotopic compositions of n-alkanes related to metamorphism suggest that the organic geochemistry may help to evaluate the lowest grades of prograde metamorphism. Copyright (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd.

Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Regional variation in sex ratios and sex allocation in androdioecious Mercurialis annua.

In androdioecious metapopulations, where males co-occur with hermaphrodites, the absence of males from certain populations or regions may be explained by locally high selfing rates, high hermaphrodite outcross siring success (e.g. due to high pollen production by hermaphrodites), or to stochastic processes (e.g. the failure of males to invade populations or regions following colonization or range expansion by hermaphrodites). In the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, the presence of males with hermaphrodites in the wind-pollinated androdioecious plant Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae) varies both among populations within relatively small regions and among regions, with some regions lacking males from all populations. The species is known to have expanded its range into the Iberian Peninsula from a southern refugium. To account for variation in male presence in M. annua, we test the following hypotheses: (1) that males are absent in areas where plant densities are lower, because selfing rates should be correspondingly higher; (2) that males are absent in areas where hermaphrodites produce more pollen; and (3) that males are absent in areas where there is an elevated proportion of populations in which plant density and hermaphrodite pollen production disfavour their invasion. We found support for predictions two and three in Morocco (the putative Pleistocene refugium for M. annua) but no support for any hypothesis in Iberia (the expanded range). Our results are partially consistent with a hypothesis of sex-allocation equilibrium for populations in Morocco; in Iberia, the absence of males from large geographical regions is more consistent with a model of sex-ratio evolution in a metapopulation with recurrent population turnover. Our study points to the role of both frequency-dependent selection and contingencies imposed by colonization during range expansions and in metapopulations.

Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.