Method to assess and optimise dependability of complex macro-systems: application to a railway signalling system

Achieving a high degree of dependability in complex macro-systems is challenging. Because of the large number of components and numerous independent teams involved, an overview of the global system performance is usually lacking to support both design and operation adequately. A functional failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) approach is proposed to address the dependability optimisation of large and complex systems. The basic inductive model FMECA has been enriched to include considerations such as operational procedures, alarm systems. environmental and human factors, as well as operation in degraded mode. Its implementation on a commercial software tool allows an active linking between the functional layers of the system and facilitates data processing and retrieval, which enables to contribute actively to the system optimisation. The proposed methodology has been applied to optimise dependability in a railway signalling system. Signalling systems are typical example of large complex systems made of multiple hierarchical layers. The proposed approach appears appropriate to assess the global risk- and availability-level of the system as well as to identify its vulnerabilities. This enriched-FMECA approach enables to overcome some of the limitations and pitfalls previously reported with classical FMECA approaches.

Multifractal portrayal of the distribution of the Swiss population

The present research studies the spatial patterns of the distribution of the Swiss population (DSP). This description is carried out using a wide variety of global spatial structural analysis tools such as topological, statistical and fractal measures, which enable the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a point pattern. A particular attention is given to the analysis of the multifractality to characterize the spatial structure of the DSP at different scales. This will be achieved by measuring the generalized q-dimensions and the singularity spectrum. This research is based on high quality data of the Swiss Population Census of the Year 2000 at a hectometric resolution (grid 100 x 100 m) issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

A tutorial review of electrical neuroimaging from group-average to single-trial event-related potentials.

This tutorial review details some of the recent advances in signal analyses applied to event-related potential (ERP) data. These "electrical neuroimaging" analyses provide reference-independent measurements of response strength and response topography that circumvent statistical and interpretational caveats of canonical ERP analysis methods while also taking advantage of the greater information provided by high-density electrode montages. Electrical neuroimaging can be applied across scales ranging from group-averaged ERPs to single-subject and single-trial datasets. We illustrate these methods with a tutorial dataset and place particular emphasis on their suitability for studies of clinical and/or developmental populations.

Activation of electrical triggers of atrial fibrillation in hyperthyroidism.

CONTEXT: A shortening of the atrial refractory period has been considered as the main mechanism for the increased risk of atrial fibrillation in hyperthyroidism. However, other important factors may be involved. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine the activity of abnormal supraventricular electrical depolarizations in response to elevated thyroid hormones in patients without structural heart disease. PATIENTS AND DESIGN: Twenty-eight patients (25 females, three males, mean age 43+/-11 yr) with newly diagnosed and untreated hyperthyroidism were enrolled in a prospective trial after exclusion of heart disease. Patients were followed up for 16 +/- 6 months and studied at baseline and 6 months after normalization of serum TSH levels. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The incidence of abnormal premature supraventricular depolarizations (SVPD) and the number of episodes of supraventricular tachycardia was defined as primary outcome measurements before the start of the study. In addition, heart rate oscillations (turbulence) after premature depolarizations and heart rate variability were compared at baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: SVPDs decreased from 59 +/- 29 to 21 +/- 8 per 24 h (P = 0.003), very early SVPDs (so called P on T) decreased from 36 +/- 24 to 3 +/- 1 per 24 h (P < 0.0001), respectively, and nonsustained supraventricular tachycardias decreased from 22 +/- 11 to 0.5 +/- 0.2 per 24 h (P = 0.01) after normalization of serum thyrotropin levels. The hyperthyroid phase was characterized by an increased heart rate (93 +/- 14 vs. 79 +/- 8 beats/min, P < 0.0001) and a decreased turbulence slope (3.6 vs. 9.2, P = 0.003), consistent with decreased vagal tone. This was confirmed by a significant decrease of heart rate variability. CONCLUSION: Hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased supraventricular ectopic activity in patients with normal hearts. The activation of these arrhythmogenic foci by elevated thyroid hormones may be an important causal link between hyperthyroidism and atrial fibrillation.

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Continuous assessment of electrical epileptic activity in acute stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence and risk factors of electrical seizures and other electrical epileptic activity using continuous EEG (cEEG) in patients with acute stroke. METHODS: One hundred consecutive patients with acute stroke admitted to our stroke unit underwent cEEG using 10 electrodes. In addition to electrical seizures, repetitive focal sharp waves (RSHWs), repetitive focal spikes (RSPs), and periodic lateralized epileptic discharges (PLEDs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the 100 patients, cEEG was recorded for a mean duration of 17 hours 34 minutes (range 1 hour 12 minutes to 37 hours 10 minutes). Epileptic activity occurred in 17 patients and consisted of RSHWs in seven, RSPs in seven, and PLEDs in three. Electrical seizures occurred in two patients. On univariate Cox regression analysis, predictors for electrical epileptic activity were stroke severity (high score on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; p = 0.002), cortical involvement (HR 5.71; p = 0.021), and thrombolysis (HR 3.27; p = 0.040). Age, sex, stroke type, use of EEG-modifying medication, and cardiovascular risk factors were not predictors of electrical epileptic activity. On multivariate analysis, stroke severity was the only independent predictor (HR 1.09; p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: In patients with acute stroke, electrical epileptic activity occurs more frequently than previously suspected.

Bond strength tests of dental adhesive systems and their correlation with clinical results : a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the variability of bond strength test results of adhesive systems (AS) and to correlate the results with clinical parameters of clinical studies investigating cervical restorations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Regarding the clinical studies, the internal database which had previously been used for a meta-analysis on cervical restorations was updated with clinical studies published between 2008 and 2012 by searching the PubMed and SCOPUS databases. PubMed and the International Association for Dental Research abstracts online were searched for laboratory studies on microtensile, macrotensile and macroshear bond strength tests. The inclusion criteria were (1) dentin, (2) testing of at least four adhesive systems, (3) same diameter of composite and (4) 24h of water storage prior to testing. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration, detectable margins, and a clinical index comprising the three parameters by weighing them. Linear mixed models which included a random study effect were calculated for both, the laboratory and the clinical studies. The variability was assessed by calculating a ratio of variances, dividing the variance among the estimated bonding effects obtained in the linear mixed models by the sum of all variance components estimated in these models. RESULTS: Thirty-two laboratory studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria comprising 183 experiments. Of those, 86 used the microtensile test evaluating 22 adhesive systems (AS). Twenty-seven used the macrotensile test with 17 AS, and 70 used the macroshear test with 24 AS. For 28 AS the results from clinical studies were available. Microtensile and macrotensile (Spearman rho=0.66, p=0.007) were moderately correlated and also microtensile and macroshear (Spearman rho=0.51, p=0.03) but not macroshear and macrotensile (Spearman rho=0.34, p=0.22). The effect of the adhesive system was significant for microtensile and macroshear (p<0.001) but not for macrotensile. The effect of the adhesive system could explain 36% of the variability of the microtensile test, 27% of the macrotensile and 33% of the macroshear test. For the clinical trials, about 49% of the variability of retained restorations could be explained by the adhesive system. With respect to the correlation between bond strength tests and clinical parameters, only a moderate correlation between micro- and macrotensile test results and marginal discoloration was demonstrated. However, no correlation between these tests and a retention loss or marginal integrity was shown. The correlation improved when more studies were included compared to assessing only one study. SIGNIFICANCE: The high variability of bond strength test results highlights the need to establish individual acceptance levels for a given test institute. The weak correlation of bond-strength test results with clinical parameters leads to the conclusion that one should not rely solely on bond strength tests to predict the clinical performance of an adhesive system but one should conduct other laboratory tests like tests on the marginal adaptation of fillings in extracted teeth and the retention loss of restorations in non-retentive cavities after artificial aging.

Comparison of electrical nerve stimulation, electrical muscle stimulation and magnetic nerve stimulation to assess the neuromuscular function of the plantar flexor muscles.

INTRODUCTION: As it might lead to less discomfort, magnetic nerve stimulation (MNS) is increasingly used as an alternative to electrical stimulation methods. Yet, MNS and electrical nerve stimulation (ENS) and electrical muscle stimulation (EMS) have not been formally compared for the evaluation of plantar flexor neuromuscular function. METHODS: We quantified plantar flexor neuromuscular function with ENS, EMS and MNS in 10 volunteers in fresh and fatigued muscles. Central alterations were assessed through changes in voluntary activation level (VAL) and peripheral function through changes in M-wave, twitch and doublet (PS100) amplitudes. Discomfort associated with 100-Hz paired stimuli delivered with each method was evaluated on a 10-cm visual analog scale. RESULTS: VAL, agonist and antagonist M-wave amplitudes and PS100 were similar between the different methods in both fresh and fatigued states. Potentiated peak twitch was lower in EMS compared to ENS, whereas no difference was found between ENS and MNS for any parameter. Discomfort associated with MNS (1.5 ± 1.4 cm) was significantly less compared to ENS (5.5 ± 1.9 cm) and EMS (4.2 ± 2.6 cm) (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: When PS100 is used to evaluate neuromuscular properties, MNS, EMS and ENS can be used interchangeably for plantar flexor neuromuscular function assessment as they provide similar evaluation of central and peripheral factors in unfatigued and fatigued states. Importantly, electrical current spread to antagonist muscles was similar between the three methods while discomfort from MNS was much less compared to ENS and EMS. MNS may be potentially employed to assess neuromuscular function of plantar flexor muscles in fragile populations.

CNDOL: A fast and reliable method for the calculation of electronic properties of very large systems. Applications to retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin and gas phase porphine.

Very large molecular systems can be calculated with the so called CNDOL approximate Hamiltonians that have been developed by avoiding oversimplifications and only using a priori parameters and formulas from the simpler NDO methods. A new diagonal monoelectronic term named CNDOL/21 shows great consistency and easier SCF convergence when used together with an appropriate function for charge repulsion energies that is derived from traditional formulas. It is possible to obtain a priori molecular orbitals and electron excitation properties after the configuration interaction of single excited determinants with reliability, maintaining interpretative possibilities even being a simplified Hamiltonian. Tests with some unequivocal gas phase maxima of simple molecules (benzene, furfural, acetaldehyde, hexyl alcohol, methyl amine, 2,5 dimethyl 2,4 hexadiene, and ethyl sulfide) ratify the general quality of this approach in comparison with other methods. The calculation of large systems as porphine in gas phase and a model of the complete retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin with 622 basis functions on 280 atoms at the quantum mechanical level show reliability leading to a resulting first allowed transition in 483 nm, very similar to the known experimental value of 500 nm of "dark state." In this very important case, our model gives a central role in this excitation to a charge transfer from the neighboring Glu(-) counterion to the retinaldehyde polyene chain. Tests with gas phase maxima of some important molecules corroborate the reliability of CNDOL/2 Hamiltonians.

Asymmetrical nature of the Trollius-Chiastocheta interaction: insights into the evolution of nursery pollination systems

The mutualistic versus antagonistic nature of an interaction is defined by costs and benefits of each partner, which may vary depending on the environment. Contrasting with this dynamic view, several pollination interactions are considered as strictly obligate and mutualistic. Here, we focus on the interaction between Trollius europaeus and Chiastocheta flies, considered as a specialized and obligate nursery pollination system - the flies are thought to be exclusive pollinators of the plant and their larvae develop only in T.europaeus fruits. In this system, features such as the globelike flower shape are claimed to have evolved in a coevolutionary context. We examine the specificity of this pollination system and measure traits related to offspring fitness in isolated T.europaeus populations, in some of which Chiastocheta flies have gone extinct. We hypothesize that if this interaction is specific and obligate, the plant should experience dramatic drop in its relative fitness in the absence of Chiastocheta. Contrasting with this hypothesis, T.europaeus populations without flies demonstrate a similar relative fitness to those with the flies present, contradicting the putative obligatory nature of this pollination system. It also agrees with our observation that many other insects also visit and carry pollen among T.europaeus flowers. We propose that the interaction could have evolved through maximization of by-product benefits of the Chiastocheta visits, through the male flower function, and selection on floral traits by the most effective pollinator. We argue this mechanism is also central in the evolution of other nursery pollination systems.