Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Additive functions in boolean models of gene regulatory network modules.

Gene-on-gene regulations are key components of every living organism. Dynamical abstract models of genetic regulatory networks help explain the genome's evolvability and robustness. These properties can be attributed to the structural topology of the graph formed by genes, as vertices, and regulatory interactions, as edges. Moreover, the actual gene interaction of each gene is believed to play a key role in the stability of the structure. With advances in biology, some effort was deployed to develop update functions in Boolean models that include recent knowledge. We combine real-life gene interaction networks with novel update functions in a Boolean model. We use two sub-networks of biological organisms, the yeast cell-cycle and the mouse embryonic stem cell, as topological support for our system. On these structures, we substitute the original random update functions by a novel threshold-based dynamic function in which the promoting and repressing effect of each interaction is considered. We use a third real-life regulatory network, along with its inferred Boolean update functions to validate the proposed update function. Results of this validation hint to increased biological plausibility of the threshold-based function. To investigate the dynamical behavior of this new model, we visualized the phase transition between order and chaos into the critical regime using Derrida plots. We complement the qualitative nature of Derrida plots with an alternative measure, the criticality distance, that also allows to discriminate between regimes in a quantitative way. Simulation on both real-life genetic regulatory networks show that there exists a set of parameters that allows the systems to operate in the critical region. This new model includes experimentally derived biological information and recent discoveries, which makes it potentially useful to guide experimental research. The update function confers additional realism to the model, while reducing the complexity and solution space, thus making it easier to investigate.

The Relevance of the Principal-Agent Model for the Analysis of Public Policies : Do the Objectives Conflict ?

This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

The potential of the European network of congenital anomaly registers (EUROCAT) for drug safety surveillance: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) is a network of population-based congenital anomaly registries in Europe surveying more than 1 million births per year, or 25% of the births in the European Union. This paper describes the potential of the EUROCAT collaboration for pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety surveillance. METHODS: The 34 full members and 6 associate members of the EUROCAT network were sent a questionnaire about their data sources on drug exposure and on drug coding. Available data on drug exposure during the first trimester available in the central EUROCAT database for the years 1996-2000 was summarised for 15 out of 25 responding full members. RESULTS: Of the 40 registries, 29 returned questionnaires (25 full and 4 associate members). Four of these registries do not collect data on maternal drug use. Of the full members, 15 registries use the EUROCAT drug code, 4 use the international ATC drug code, 3 registries use another coding system and 7 use a combination of these coding systems. Obstetric records are the most frequently used sources of drug information for the registries, followed by interviews with the mother. Only one registry uses pharmacy data. Percentages of cases with drug exposure (excluding vitamins/minerals) varied from 4.4% to 26.0% among different registries. The categories of drugs recorded varied widely between registries. CONCLUSIONS: Practices vary widely between registries regarding recording drug exposure information. EUROCAT has the potential to be an effective collaborative framework to contribute to post-marketing drug surveillance in relation to teratogenic effects, but work is needed to implement ATC drug coding more widely, and to diversify the sources of information used to determine drug exposure in each registry.

Economics of public governance with strategic production of information: four essays

SUMMARY This paper analyses the outcomes of the EEA and bilateral agreements vote at the level of the 3025 communities of the Swiss Confederation by simultaneously modelling the vote and the participation decisions. Regressions include economic and political factors. The economic variables are the aggregated shares of people employed in the losing, Winning and neutral sectors, according to BRUNETTI, JAGGI and WEDER (1998) classification, Which follows a Ricardo-Viner logic, and the average education levels, which follows a Heckscher-Ohlin approach. The political factors are those used in the recent literature. The results are extremely precise and consistent. Most of the variables have the predicted sign and are significant at the l % level. More than 80 % of the communities' vote variance is explained by the model, substantially reducing the residuals when compared to former studies. The political variables do have the expected signs and are significant as Well. Our results underline the importance of the interaction between electoral choice and participation decisions as well as the importance of simultaneously dealing with those issues. Eventually they reveal the electorate's high level of information and rationality. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Unser Beitrag analysiert in einem Model, welches gleichzeitig die Stimm- ("ja" oder "nein") und Partizipationsentscheidung einbezieht, den Ausgang der Abstimmungen über den Beitritt zum EWR und über die bilateralen Verträge für die 3025 Gemeinden der Schweiz. Die Regressionsgleichungen beinhalten ökonomische und politische Variabeln. Die ökonomischen Variabeln beinhalten die Anteile an sektoriellen Arbeitsplatzen, die, wie in BRUNETTI, JAGGIl.1I1d WEDER (1998), in Gewinner, Verlierer und Neutrale aufgeteilt Wurden, gemäß dem Model von Ricardo-Viner, und das durchschnittliche Ausbildungsniveau, gemäß dem Model von Heckscher-Ohlin. Die politischen Variabeln sind die in der gegenwärtigen Literatur üblichen. Unsere Resultate sind bemerkenswert präzise und kohärent. Die meisten Variabeln haben das von der Theorie vorausgesagte Vorzeichen und sind hoch signifikant (l%). Mehr als 80% der Varianz der Stimmabgabe in den Gemeinden wird durch das Modell erklärt, was, im Vergleich mit früheren Arbeiten, die unerklärten Residuen Wesentlich verkleinert. Die politischen Variabeln haben auch die erwarteten Vorzeichen und sind signifikant. Unsere Resultate unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen der Stimm- und der Partizipationsentscheidung, und die Bedeutung diese gleichzeitig zu behandeln. Letztendlich, belegen sie den hohen lnformationsgrad und die hohe Rationalität der Stimmbürger. RESUME Le présent article analyse les résultats des votations sur l'EEE et sur les accords bilatéraux au niveau des 3025 communes de la Confédération en modélisant simultanément les décisions de vote ("oui" ou "non") et de participation. Les régressions incluent des déterminants économiques et politiques. Les déterminants économiques sont les parts d'emploi sectoriels agrégées en perdants, gagnants et neutres selon la classification de BRUNETTI, JAGGI ET WEDER (1998), suivant la logique du modèle Ricardo-Viner, et les niveaux de diplômes moyens, suivant celle du modèle Heckscher-Ohlin. Les déterminants politiques suivent de près ceux utilisés dans la littérature récente. Les résultats sont remarquablement précis et cohérents. La plupart des variables ont les signes prédits par les modèles et sont significatives a 1%. Plus de 80% de la variance du vote par commune sont expliqués par le modèle, faisant substantiellement reculer la part résiduelle par rapport aux travaux précédents. Les variables politiques ont aussi les signes attendus et sont aussi significatives. Nos résultats soulignent l'importance de l'interaction entre choix électoraux et décisions de participation et l'importance de les traiter simultanément. Enfin, ils mettent en lumière les niveaux élevés d'information et de rationalité de l'électorat.

Resigned but satisfied: The negative impact of public service motivation and red tape on work satisfaction

This article examines the relationship between red tape, Public Service Motivation (PSM) and a particular work outcome labelled 'resigned satisfaction'. Using data from a national survey of over 3754 public servants working at the municipal level in Switzerland, this study shows the importance of looking more closely at the concept of work satisfaction and, furthermore, of thoroughly investigating the impact of the different PSM dimensions on work outcomes. Unsurprisingly, research findings show that red tape is the most important predictor of resignation. Nevertheless, when PSM dimensions are analysed separately, results demonstrate that 'commitment to public interest/civic duty' and, to a lesser extent, 'attraction to policy-making' decrease resignation, whereas 'compassion' and 'self-sacrifice' increase it. This study thus highlights some of the negative (or undesirable) effects of PSM that have not been previously addressed in PSM literature.

On the Definition of Public Goods. Assessing Richard A. Musgrave's contribution

This paper provides an explanation of the emergence of the standard textbook definition of public goods in the middle of the 20th century. It focuses on Richard Musgrave's contribution in defining public goods as non-rival and non-excludable - from 1939 to 1969. Although Samuelson's mathematical definition is generally used in models of public goods, the qualitative understanding of the specificity of pure public goods owes more to Musgrave's emphasis on the impossibility of exclusion. This paper also highlights the importance of the size of the group to which benefits of a public good accrue. This analysis allow for a reassessment of the Summary table of goods which first appeared in Musgrave and Musgrave (1973) textbook.