The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

Prevalence of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Suspected for Pulmonary Embolism or Acute Aortic Syndromes: Rational for "Double" and "Triple" Rule-Out Concepts

PURPOSE To evaluate the prevalence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in patients presenting initially with atypical chest pain and suspected to have pulmonary embolism (PE) or acute aortic syndromes (AAS). To evaluate the overlap between ACS, PE and AAS in routine practice and determine how many patients could have benefit from a single CT protocol to rule out ACS at the same time as PE and AAS. METHOD AND MATERIALS Our electronic hospital database revealed 1122 consecutive patients who underwent a thoracic CT angiography for PE or AAS from 2004 to 2006 (mean age, 63±13 years). Patients without chest pain were excluded from this study. Thus, 447 patients presented with isolated atypical chest were included in the analysis. All patients who underwent a thoracic CT scan previously received standard clinical care and were initially considered as non ACS. The final diagnosis was obtained by the hospital stay report. RESULTS Among the 447 patients with atypical chest pain, 25 (5.5%) were finally found to have ACS: 19 patients (4.2%) were suspected for PE and 6 (1. 3%) were suspected for AAS. There were 90 patients diagnosed to have PE, 89 (98.8%) of them were suspected for PE while only 1 (1%) was suspected for AAS. Eleven patients diagnosed to have AAS, 9 (82%) of them were suspected for AAS while 2 (18%) were suspected for PE. CONCLUSION In clinical practice, the overlap between PE, AAS and ACS is limited which make the triple rule-out studies less recommended to be done at the time being because of the high dose radiation. A double rule-out investigation is suggested to be done for patients being evaluated for atypical chest pain and suspected of having AAS or PE because of a significant overlap between the two entities as well it doesn't implicate any increment in radiation dose. CLINICAL RELEVANCE/APPLICATION With 64-slice CT, coronary circulation and total chest can be evaluated at the same time offering new opportunitie for the evaluation of three major life-threatening conditions :ACS,PE and AAS.

Rational design of 4-aryl-1,2,3-triazoles for indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 inhibition.

Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO1) is an important therapeutic target for the treatment of diseases such as cancer that involve pathological immune escape. Starting from the scaffold of our previously discovered IDO1 inhibitor 4-phenyl-1,2,3-triazole, we used computational structure-based methods to design more potent ligands. This approach yielded highly efficient low molecular weight inhibitors, the most active being of nanomolar potency both in an enzymatic and in a cellular assay, while showing no cellular toxicity and a high selectivity for IDO1 over tryptophan 2,3-dioxygenase (TDO). A quantitative structure-activity relationship based on the electrostatic ligand-protein interactions in the docked binding modes and on the quantum chemically derived charges of the triazole ring demonstrated a good explanatory power for the observed activities.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

Determination of meropenem in plasma and filtrate-dialysate from patients under continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration by SPE-LC.

Meropenem, a carbapenem antibiotic displaying a broad spectrum of antibacterial activity, is administered in Medical Intensive Care Unit to critically ill patients undergoing continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). However, there are limited data available to substantial rational dosing decisions in this condition. In an attempt to refine our knowledge and propose a rationally designed dosage regimen, we have developed a HPLC method to determine meropenem after solid-phase extraction (SPE) of plasma and dialysate fluids obtained from patients under CVVHDF. The assay comprises the simultaneous measurement of meropenem's open-ring metabolite UK-1a, whose fate has never been studied in CVVHDF patients. The clean-up procedure involved a SPE on C18 cartridge. Matrix components were eliminated with phosphate buffer pH 7.4 followed by 15:85 MeOH-phosphate buffer pH 7.4. Meropenem and UK-1a were subsequently desorbed with MeOH. The eluates were evaporated under nitrogen at room temperature (RT) and reconstituted in phosphate buffer pH 7.4. Separation was performed at RT on a Nucleosil 100-5 microm C18 AB cartridge column (125 x 4 mm I.D.) equipped with a guard column (8 x 4 mm I.D.) with UV-DAD detection set at 208 nm. The mobile phase was 1 ml min(-1), using a step-wise gradient elution program: %MeOH/0.005 M tetrabutylammonium chloride pH 7.4; 10/90-50/50 in 27 min. Over the range of 5-100 microg ml(-1), the regression coefficient of the calibration curves (plasma and dialysate) were >0.998. The absolute extraction recoveries of meropenem and UK-1a in plasma and filtrate-dialysate were stable and ranged from 88-93 to 72-77% for meropenem, and from 95-104 to 75-82% for UK-1a. In plasma and filtrate-dialysate, respectively, the mean intra-assay precision was 4.1 and 2.6% for meropenem and 4.2 and 3.7% for UK-1a. The inter-assay variability was 2.8 and 3.6% for meropenem and 2.3 and 2.8% for UK-1a. The accuracy was satisfactory for both meropenem and UK-1a with deviation never exceeding 9.0% of the nominal concentrations. The stability of meropenem, studied in biological samples left at RT and at +4 degrees C, was satisfactory with < 5% degradation after 1.5 h in blood but reached 22% in filtrate-dialysate samples stored at RT for 8 h, precluding accurate measurements of meropenem excreted unchanged in the filtrate-dialysate left at RT during the CVVHDF procedure. The method reported here enables accurate measurements of meropenem in critically ill patients under CVVHDF, making dosage individualisation possible in such patients. The levels of the metabolite UK-1a encountered in this population of patients were higher than those observed in healthy volunteers but was similar to those observed in patients with renal impairment under hemodialysis.

Prescription du monitoring pratique médicate: de l'empirisme eclairé aux stratégies rationnelles [Prescribing monitoring in clinical practice: from enlightened empiricism to rational strategies].

Monitoring of a medical condition is the periodic measurement of one or several physiological or biological variables to detect a signal regarding its clinical progression or its response to treatment. We distinguish different medical situations between diagnostic, clinical and therapeutic process to apply monitoring. Many clinical, variables can be used for monitoring, once their intrinsic properties (normal range, critical difference, kinetics, reactivity) and external validity (pathophysiological importance, predictive power for clinical outcomes) are established. A formal conceptualization of monitoring is being developed and should support the rational development of monitoring strategies and their validation through appropriate clinical trials.

Amlodipine and valsartan as components of a rational and effective fixed-dose combination.

Pharmacological treatment of hypertension is effective in preventing cardiovascular and renal complications. Calcium antagonists and blockers of the renin-angiotensin system are widely used today to initiate antihypertensive therapy but, when given as monotherapy, do not suffice in most patients to normalize blood pressure. Combining the two types of agents considerably increases the antihypertensive efficacy, but not at the expense of a deterioration of tolerability. This is exemplified by the experience accumulated with the recently developed fixed dose combination containing the AT(1)-receptor blocker valsartan (160 mg) and the dihydropyridine amlodipine (5 or 10 mg). In a randomized trial, an 8-week treatment normalized blood pressure (<140/90 mmHg) within 8 weeks in a large fraction of hypertensive patients (78.4% and 85.2% using the 5/160 [n = 371] and 10/160 mg [n = 377] dosage, respectively). Like all AT(1)-receptor blockers valsartan has a placebo-like tolerability. Valsartan prevents to a large extent the occurrence amlodipine-induced peripheral edema. Both amlodipine and valsartan have beneficial effects on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, as well as protective effects on renal function. The co-administration of these two agents is therefore very attractive, as it enables a rapid and sustained blood pressure control in hypertensive patients. The availability of a fixed-dose combination based on amlodipine and valsartan is expected therefore to facilitate the management of hypertension, to improve long-term adherence with antihypertensive therapy and, ultimately, to have a positive impact on cardiovascular and renal outcomes.

Safety of a new algorithm for the management of childhood illness (Almanach) to improve quality of care and rational use of drugs

Introduction New evidence from randomized controlled and etiology of fever studies, the availability of reliable RDT for malaria, and novel technologies call for revision of the IMCI strategy. We developed a new algorithm based on (i) a systematic review of published studies assessing the safety and appropriateness of RDT and antibiotic prescription, (ii) results from a clinical and microbiological investigation of febrile children aged <5 years, (iii) international expert IMCI opinions. The aim of this study was to assess the safety of the new algorithm among patients in urban and rural areas of Tanzania.Materials and Methods The design was a controlled noninferiority study. Enrolled children aged 2-59 months with any illness were managed either by a study clinician using the new Almanach algorithm (two intervention health facilities), or clinicians using standard practice, including RDT (two control HF). At day 7 and day 14, all patients were reassessed. Patients who were ill in between or not cured at day 14 were followed until recovery or death. Primary outcome was rate of complications, secondary outcome rate of antibiotic prescriptions.Results 1062 children were recruited. Main diagnoses were URTI 26%, pneumonia 19% and gastroenteritis (9.4%). 98% (531/541) were cured at D14 in the Almanach arm and 99.6% (519/521) in controls. Rate of secondary hospitalization was 0.2% in each. One death occurred in controls. None of the complications was due to withdrawal of antibiotics or antimalarials at day 0. Rate of antibiotic use was 19% in the Almanach arm and 84% in controls.Conclusion Evidence suggests that the new algorithm, primarily aimed at the rational use of drugs, is as safe as standard practice and leads to a drastic reduction of antibiotic use. The Almanach is currently being tested for clinician adherence to proposed procedures when used on paper or a mobile phone

Combinations of vascular endothelial growth factor pathway inhibitors with metronomic chemotherapy: Rational and current status.

Chemotherapy given in a metronomic manner can be administered with less adverse effects which are common with conventional schedules such as myelotoxicity and gastrointestinal toxicity and thus may be appropriate for older patients and patients with decreased performance status. Efficacy has been observed in several settings. An opportunity to improve the efficacy of metronomic schedules without significantly increasing toxicity presents with the addition of anti-angiogenic targeted treatments. These combinations rational stems from the understanding of the importance of angiogenesis in the mechanism of action of metronomic chemotherapy which may be augmented by specific targeting of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pathway by antibodies or small tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Combinations of metronomic chemotherapy schedules with VEGF pathway targeting drugs will be discussed in this paper.

Toward a rational design of combination therapy in cancer.

By merging computational systems modeling and experimental approaches, we have uncovered treatments reprogramming pro-angiogenic monocytes present in breast tumor into immunologically potent cells capable of mediating an anti-tumor immune response. The unraveled pathways and ligands which underlie monocyte pro-angiogenic activity have a strong predictive value for breast cancer patient relapse - free survival.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children : Tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis.

CONTEXT: Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by (a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, (b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and (c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS: 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION: The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.